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🤯The craziest #F1 stat you'll see today:

Back in Miami, Lando Norris and McLaren had a TINY 1% probability of winning their respective championships!
(Less than Ferrari now: 2.7%!) 😲

RedBull's chances of a WCC progressively declined from 92.6% to just 9.2%.📉

VER is still the WDC favourite (58.9%), but it's almost a coin toss now! Austin will be decisive 🔮

Thanks, @oddschecker team, for contacting me and providing this data! 🤝

Made via @JMP_software

The ‘Implied Probability’ is given by the payouts for each bet made before the start of the GP.

E.g. if by betting 1$ you get 2$ in case your prediction is correct then the probability is 1$/2$=0.5=50%.

The bookmaker’s advantage has been removed: their sum is therefore 100%.

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RACE PACE - F1 SPRINT

Verstappen was quickest on average, but Sainz was almost as quick despite the numerous fights!
He can win the race. 🍀

🥇🔵VER
🥈🔴SAI +0.05s/lap (traffic)
🥉🔴LEC+0.24s/lap (traffic)

📈Impressed: Ferrari.
📉Disappointed: Mercedes (Big drop in pace), McL.

The race will probably be down to how the relative performance will differ on a full tank and different tyre compounds.

RACE PACE Austin GP

Ferrari's 1-2 was their most 'dominant' race of the year: 0.26s/lap advantage on McL! (LEC vs NOR) 🏆

Next best: Australia (+0.11s/lap)
Best pace since early '22! 💡

NOR: 0.1s/lap quicker than VER 👌
RUS and PER: underwhelming pace even considering traffic. 🚨

Ferrari's aero updates (introduced in Singapore) seem to have worked, as Austin is a very representative track (diverse sectors; downforce and drag are both important).

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TOP SPEEDS - Austin GP

RUS reached 344km/h! Plenty of slipstream+DRS during his comeback.

VER was slowest - by far. Just 313km/h, as he never used DRS on the main straight. That's low even considering that.

PIA's drag was high: lowest top speed with (326) and without DRS (312).

Mexico City GP offers a unique challenge:
The ~20% lower air density (due to altitude) reduces downforce and drag massively.
⬇️
- High drag not as critical (will help McL)
- High downforce even more crucial!

Often highest top speeds of the season despite the high-downforce wings. 💡

Cars will be sliding significantly due to the decreased downforce and the slippery tarmac.

📸 @pirellisport

In the race, Charles Leclerc was on average over THREE SECONDS PER LAP quicker than last year... using the same strategy (Medium➡️Hard)! 🤯

Track conditions alone cannot explain this impressive improvement... and now Ferrari is given over 1 in 4 chances of getting the WCC. 🍀

The team also introduced a more flexible front wing, providing at least two benefits:
-Reduced drag at high speed;
-Speed-dependent aero balance (Low speed: more front downforce ➡️ better agility and overall grip; High speed: less front downforce ➡️ better stability, aiding driver confidence).

Race pace Improvement by other drivers:
NOR: 2.44s/lap (one less stop than in ‘23)
VER: 2.04 s/lap (one less stop than in ‘23)
SAI: 2.55s/lap (one less stop than in ‘23)

Even SAI, despite being quicker than LEC in ‘23 (due to the additional stop) and slower in ‘24, gained over half a second vs VER.

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Mexico's lower air density is forcing Ferrari to add cooling louvres to its car - even compared to another high-altitude track like Austria. 🔥

Engine cooling is improved at the expense of more drag and less rear downforce. 📉

Ferrari struggled with temperatures in '23 when they opted for an asymmetrical cooling arrangement. 🚨

F1 teams with lower cooling requirements and turbocompressors better suited to the less dense air will lose less performance in Mexico!

Austin GP damaged Lando Norris's championship hopes while reviving Ferrari’s chances. 🔥

WDC probability (Before vs After Austin)
🥇🔵VER: 58.89% ➡️ 80.13% (+21.24%📈)
🥈🟠NOR: 38.37% ➡️ 17.60% (-20.77%📉)

WCC
🥇🟠McL: 86.86% ➡️ 88.50% (+1.64%📈)
🥈🔴Ferrari: 6.47% ➡️ 14.29% (+7.82%📉)
🥉🔵RBR: 9.20% ➡️ 5.88% (-3.32%📉)

The probability swing after Mexico will be wild (as fewer and fewer points are available).
Data by : @oddschecker

You might have noticed that the sum of the ‘post Austin’ WCC percentages is over 100%. That’s because I forgot to remove the bookmaker’s edge, my bad!

The pecking order is not affected by that, obviously.

Sainz beat Verstappen by 0.225s by gaining significantly from Turn 3 to 6 - and not losing his advantage afterwards 🔥

SAI: +1km/h top speed on the main straight; +4km/h on the next one 🚀

VER used III gear in T4, while SAI downshifted to II

VER took T9 full-throttle!