📝🇮🇷❌🇺🇸🇮🇱 - On The Radar Campaign

The key issue to understand about the implications of the apparent neutralization of multiple AN/TPY-2 ballistic missile early warning radars is that no individual radar antenna has a 360° field of view. A maximum field of view of 120° is the norm, and early warning and acquisition/search radars often constantly rotate as a result. The AN/TYP-2 does not rotate (at all) and therefore offers highly sectored coverage. The AN/TPY-2 radar in Jordan was oriented toward ballistic missiles launched from Iran, not ballistic missiles launched by Ansarallah in Yemen. The AN/TPY-2 radars in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can similarly either be oriented toward Iran or toward Yemen.

Given the above, the implications of Iran's apparent neutralization of multiple AN/TPY-2—not exclusively owned and operated by the American military—radars can be quite profound. Uncertainty about the number of remaining Iranian long-range (~1000+ km range) ballistic missiles and associated launchers notwithstanding, the Gulf Arab states may now be far more vulnerable to ballistic missiles of this range and performance class. Moreover, Ansarallah's arsenal of Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles of this range and performance class has not yet been committed to this war, which means that the Gulf Arab states face major risks going forward, even if the number of surviving ballistic missiles and associated launchers within Iran drops to zero.

🔗 Shahryar Pasandieh

🇮🇷❌🇮🇱🇺🇸 - The Israelis supposedly have two AN/TPY-2 in the Negev, one pointed towards Yemen and the other towards Iran. We don't know if these radars are connected to the Israeli civilian missile alert system, but it's reasonable to assume they are. The Iranians have launched at least one MRBM strike into the Negev. We have no way of knowing what they targeted or if it was a successful strike due to censorship, but it's possible one or both radars have been destroyed, and this is partially responsible for the degradation of the Israeli missile alert system.

🔗 Amerikanets

📝🇺🇸🇮🇷 - U.S. Intelligence report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime.

▪️A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment

▪️The report outlined succession scenarios resulting from either a short or extended U.S. military campaign. In both cases, it concluded the clerical and military establishment would respond to Khamenei's killing by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power.

▪️The report says the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country is “unlikely,” raising doubts about Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” Iran’s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.

▪️ U.S. spy agencies’ doubts about Iran’s opposition seizing power have been referenced in the NYT and WSJ. The NIC’s involvement, and its analyses of the potential outcomes of small- and large-scale offensives, have not been previously reported.

🔗 Washington Post

🇮🇷❌🇮🇱🇦🇪 - i24 News reports Iranian strikes are increasing:

🔴 UAE says Iran launched 16 missiles and 121 drones at its territory today despite Iranian President’s vows to cease attacks on neighbors.

🔗 i24 News

📝 Calvin - Funny how individual nations are reporting more Iranian ordinance than that CAL group is saying is being launched in total, the one everyone is building their missile/drone charts on.

‼️🇺🇸🛢️ - The national average price of diesel has seen its largest single day price increase ever recorded- rising 22.3c/gal today, beating the previous largest daily rise of 22.2c/gal on 3/4/22, according to GasBuddy data. The average for diesel is up 71.4c/gal vs a week ago.

🔗 Patrick DeHaan

🚨🇸🇦🇮🇷 - Saudi Arabia Steps Up Direct Contacts With Iran to De-Escalate War

In recent days, Saudi officials have deployed their diplomatic backchannel to Iran with greater urgency to de-escalate tensions and prevent the conflict from worsening, the officials said, asking not to be named discussing private and sensitive conversations. Several European and Middle Eastern nations are backing these efforts, according to these officials.

The talks have involved security agencies and diplomats, they added, but it isn’t clear whether they have included higher-ranking officials. So far, Iran has shown little inclination to negotiate with the US or Israel.

The Saudis are in communication with the Iranian ambassador to Riyadh on a near daily basis to reiterate that the kingdom’s territory is not being used by the US or anyone else to attack Iran, said another person with knowledge of the situation. Saudi Arabia is also saying to Iran that if it keeps up its attacks, the kingdom may be forced to retaliate, the person said. Still, Saudi authorities don’t have high confidence they can stop the war at this stage, the person said.

🔗 Bloomberg

📝🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - In the first week of Operation Epic Fury alone, U.S. military equipment losses are estimated at around $3 billion

3× AN/TPY-2 missile defense radars, one of which has been visually confirmed destroyed.

3-4 F-15E Strike Eagles (including three shot down by friendly fire from a Kuwaiti Air Force F/A-18)

4× MQ-9 Reaper drones

Damage to a U.S. AN/FPS-132 early-warning radar owned by Qatar

These figures do not include additional equipment losses from strikes in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, where multiple SATCOM and SIGINT radomes were confirmed destroyed.

🔗 Egypt’s Intel Observer

🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷 - Why the US is facing strategic defeat

Irrespective of the ever-shifting war aims peddled out by Administration officials, there is a clear and obvious sense in which strategic victory and defeat are defined here. If the United States cannot, either through direct denial or military coercion, suppress Iran’s attacks on its own assets and those of its allies and protectorates, that would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States. If the US declares mission accomplished whilst the Iranians are still firing their weapons at the oil monarchies, US military bases, Israel, and, above all, if Hormuz is still closed, that would constitute an unambiguous strategic defeat for the United States.

By the same token, if Iran can continue its attacks and keep Hormuz closed despite whatever the US throws at it, until such a time as the US offers a ceasefire, it would’ve succeeded in reestablishing deterrence. That would constitute a strategic victory for Iran. This is not a definitional question; it is a question of the perception of adversaries, third parties, and disinterested analysts. The Western media spin won’t count; it would just be too blatantly obvious.

🔗 Policy Tensor