— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 The Abraham Alliance: Reality or Work of Fiction?

If the United States tried to form this alliance 10 years ago, I would have said that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrein, Jordan and Egypt would have likely joined. With the Syrian war ongoing, fears about the Nuclear Program and anti-Iranian sentiment at a boiling point, Arab nations felt like they had something to prove.

However, in the Middle East anno 2024, with Iran as an emerging force that has imposed hard power equations upon its neighbours, and following the Iran-Saudi peace deal, I think such an alliance is not feasible. In the very best case scenario, the Kingdom of Jordan and Bahrain would join such an alliance.

Saudi Arabia is openly interested in closer Iran-ties, the UAE mostly follows Saudi policy & is heavily dependent on Iranian imports, and Egypt has a history of refusing alliances and has bigger problems than Iran. None of these countries will be excited at the prospect of an anti-Iran alliance at a time when Iran is rapidly emerging as the pre-eminent geopolitical power in the Middle East.

Jordan, due to its dependence on NATO and the United States, is the most likely to be up for it. They were the only Arab nation to open their airspace to the Israeli Air Force when Iran launched its missile strikes against Israel in April of this year.

Bahrein, which houses the U.S. Persian Gulf fleet, while possiby interested in joining, has also openly voiced its interest in persuing a re-establishment of diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In short: the 'Abraham Alliance' will likely end up as a shell of what it could have once been. It will be an empty, shallow alliance, consisting mostly of the United States and Israel, similar to operation Prosperity Guardian, which is widely seen as a flop.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Ukraine repelled a massive Russian attack on Konstantinovka (Mariinka-Ugledar direction) in the early hours of Thursday morning - both sides confirm the losses.

Russian losses amounted to over 200 dead personnel, 6 tanks, 7 armored personal carriers and several other vehicles.

Konstantinovka is vital for Ukrainian forces to hold, as it remains Ugledar's only supply route.

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 - Netanyahu says any ceasefire arranged in Gaza won't prevent Israel from invading Lebanon.

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