JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon says US Federal Reserve’s forecast for 4% inflation this year is “too optimistic,” according to interview published in Wednesday edition of French newspaper Le Figaro.

함의: 중앙은행의 인플레이션 전망이 지나치게 낙관적이라 주장.

Conditions are now less favorable for stock pickers and it may be harder for them to outperform in 2H as rising macro risks and volatility have fueled increase in pairwise stock correlations, Bernstein strategists say. Quant funds are staging a comeback after years of underperformance as good factor selection is more likely to be rewarded, strategists led by Sarah McCarthy write in a note. Fundamental equity factors have started to work again, value tilt is beneficial, and yield, low volatility and quality have also contributed to the recovery of quant funds.

함의: 현재 거시경제 환경에서 기업 특성을 무시한 동시적 주가 움직임이 많기 때문에, 개별 기업 선별보다 계량적 특성 집단으로 투자하는 것이 더 유리하다고 함.

The diverging views of private infrastructure investors from the stock market’s are especially visible when it comes to the masts on which mobile phone operators hang their antennae. Deutsche Telekom AG’s strategic review of its towers business, worth a mooted $20 billion, has attracted significant private equity interest. These assets are attractive in a stagflationary world, say analysts at Citigroup Inc. Mobile operators sign long-term contracts, typically accepting some indexation to consumer-price inflation albeit often subject to a cap). There’s also growth potential from the rollout of 5G mobile networks and the opportunity to add more customers per mast as telecom owners cease to monopolize the real estate. Hence, towers command valuations well in excess of their current or former telecom parents.

함의: 통신은 장기계약일 뿐 아니라 가격탄력성도 낮기에 스태그플레이션을 전망하는 투자자에게 적격임.

A quarter of Americans surveyed say they will buy an electric vehicle as their next automobile as gasoline prices soar to record levels. Millennials are the most eager to electrify their ride, with 30% saying they plan to buy an EV next, according to a national survey by the American Automobile Association. Of those looking to buy a plug-in vehicle, 77% said the interest was driven by a desire to save on fuel costs.

함의: 오늘 파크원 비어있던 EV 주차 자리를 보며 들었던 생각.

China is again reminding the world its status as a manufacturing powerhouse. The latest June data shows trade balance logged $98b in surplus, which is over 27% more than Bloomberg’s median estimate of $77b. The year-to-date surplus figure as of June has already surpassed the entire trade surplus of 2018. Blowout exports figures can very well give China growth an extra boost, and it might gives authorities less of an incentive to aggressively devalue the yuan.

함의: 중국의 무역 흑자폭이 추정치를 +27% 상회, 반년 흑자 규모가 2018년간을 규모를 상회하며 제조 강국의 면모를 보여줌.

In Paris there are sun-soaked stomachs strolling Saint-Germain and tanned midriffs scaling Montmartre. Up and down the Rue de Rivoli one can spot shrunken tees, top-and-short two-sets and backless bodices strung with spider-web-fine ties. And en route to one of this week’s haute couture shows, breezy women rode the Métro in linen shirts knotted above belly buttons.

함의: Parisians are wearing crop tops this summer.

Economists project US inflation likely hit a pandemic peak in June that will keep the Federal Reserve geared for another big rate increase. The consumer-price index probably rose 8.8% from a year earlier, the largest jump since 1981, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of the release Wednesday. “This is widely expected to be a really strong print,” Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “Even if it is not, I don’t think that changes the Fed’s perspective in a couple of weeks. We won’t have enough evidence that inflation is convincingly turning over.”

함의: 1981년 이후 최고치를 물가 상승을 기록해도, 그렇지 않아도 명확한 증거가 보이기 전까지 중앙은행은 금리를 계속 올릴 것임.

Money markets are betting on a three-quarter percentage-point hike by Federal Reserve officials later this month, wagering the US will need to ramp up the pace of monetary tightening to tame inflation. “I believe a 75-basis-point hike in July is a fait accompli,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “The Fed needs to stay aggressive now so it can assess the situation in September and possibly take a less aggressive path of tightening in the fourth quarter.”

함의: 75bp 인상은 앙드레 코스톨라니의 'fait accompli'.

Bigger gains that forecast; this isn’t good at all.

The red-hot inflation figures reaffirm that price pressures are rampant and widespread throughout the economy and continue to sap purchasing power and confidence. That will keep Fed officials on an aggressive policy course to rein in demand, and adds pressure to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats whose support has slumped ahead of midterm elections.

함의: 요소를 가리지 않고 모든 영역에서 인플레이션이 발생함.

Swap markets show traders are now pricing in a significant possibility that the Federal Reserve will implement a 100-basis-point hike in July in the wake of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data.

함의: 물가 지표 발표 뒤 7월 금리인상 예상폭은 100bp로 상승함.

You have to wonder if this suggests the Fed will have to keep going with 75-basis-point moves. There’s been no suggestion from policy makers that the September meeting would involve such a move. Meantime, it sure is hard to see how the Fed gets back to quarter-point increments anytime soon.

함의: 중앙은행의 25bp 인상은 당분간 다시 보기 힘들 것.

TINA's at risk. The multi-year market mantra that there's no alternative to equities is facing a major threat as bond yields increasingly look more attractive. The percentage of S&P members with a dividend yield higher than the 10-year yield has fallen to the lowest since 2007, while yields have surged this year as corporate payouts are under pressure.

함의: 채권 수익률보다 높은 배당 수익률을 제공하는 주식 비중이 2007년 이후 최저치로 떨어짐.

The Bank of Canada hiked interest rates by a full percentage point, a surprise move that supercharges efforts to withdraw stimulus before four-decade-high inflation becomes entrenched. Governor Tiff Macklem raised the central bank’s policy rate to 2.5% in a decision announced Wednesday in Ottawa that warned of more hikes to come. The 100-basis-point move is the largest increase since 1998. Markets and economists were anticipating 75 basis points.

함의: 캐나다 중앙은행은 100bp 금리인상과 추가 인상 경고를 통해 인플레이션 통제에 적극적으로 나섬.

The third-largest sell program of the year rolled through stocks on the New York open. Equities took the selling in stride though. Orders of this size are typically not single events. They tend to happen in clusters and that probably means stocks could easily be in store for more losses.

함의: 미국 개장 시 동시 다발적 작용에 의한 것으로 추정되는 올해 세번째 규모의 알고리즘 매도가 있었고, 시장은 물량을 모두 소화함.