Bigger gains that forecast; this isn’t good at all.

The red-hot inflation figures reaffirm that price pressures are rampant and widespread throughout the economy and continue to sap purchasing power and confidence. That will keep Fed officials on an aggressive policy course to rein in demand, and adds pressure to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats whose support has slumped ahead of midterm elections.

함의: 요소를 가리지 않고 모든 영역에서 인플레이션이 발생함.

Swap markets show traders are now pricing in a significant possibility that the Federal Reserve will implement a 100-basis-point hike in July in the wake of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data.

함의: 물가 지표 발표 뒤 7월 금리인상 예상폭은 100bp로 상승함.

You have to wonder if this suggests the Fed will have to keep going with 75-basis-point moves. There’s been no suggestion from policy makers that the September meeting would involve such a move. Meantime, it sure is hard to see how the Fed gets back to quarter-point increments anytime soon.

함의: 중앙은행의 25bp 인상은 당분간 다시 보기 힘들 것.

TINA's at risk. The multi-year market mantra that there's no alternative to equities is facing a major threat as bond yields increasingly look more attractive. The percentage of S&P members with a dividend yield higher than the 10-year yield has fallen to the lowest since 2007, while yields have surged this year as corporate payouts are under pressure.

함의: 채권 수익률보다 높은 배당 수익률을 제공하는 주식 비중이 2007년 이후 최저치로 떨어짐.

The Bank of Canada hiked interest rates by a full percentage point, a surprise move that supercharges efforts to withdraw stimulus before four-decade-high inflation becomes entrenched. Governor Tiff Macklem raised the central bank’s policy rate to 2.5% in a decision announced Wednesday in Ottawa that warned of more hikes to come. The 100-basis-point move is the largest increase since 1998. Markets and economists were anticipating 75 basis points.

함의: 캐나다 중앙은행은 100bp 금리인상과 추가 인상 경고를 통해 인플레이션 통제에 적극적으로 나섬.

The third-largest sell program of the year rolled through stocks on the New York open. Equities took the selling in stride though. Orders of this size are typically not single events. They tend to happen in clusters and that probably means stocks could easily be in store for more losses.

함의: 미국 개장 시 동시 다발적 작용에 의한 것으로 추정되는 올해 세번째 규모의 알고리즘 매도가 있었고, 시장은 물량을 모두 소화함.

• TICK Index: The TICK Index represents the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus the number trading on a downtick.

"The noblest pleasure is the joy of understanding."

- Leonardo Da Vinci

Andrej Karpathy, Tesla Inc.’s top artificial-intelligence executive and the director of its Autopilot self-driving system, is planning to depart the automaker. The executive, who joined Tesla in 2017, announced his departure in a series of tweets on Wednesday. Karpathy led the computer-vision teams -- overseeing the technology at the core of Autopilot -- in addition to groups responsible for data labeling and deployment of the feature.

함의: 테슬라 내에서 인공지능 및 자율주행을 이끌던 임원이 자동차 업계를 떠난다고 밝힘.

The Nasdaq 100 reversed a 2.1% decline to slip just 0.1% at the close. As much as anything, analysts pointed to the already-formidable repricing that has occurred in tech stocks this year in explaining Wednesday’s rebound. The index had lost a third of its value from its recent peak after traders dumped richly valued stocks as the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve stiffened. At 20 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading near the lowest multiple since the aftermath of the pandemic crash. To JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, bargains are emerging in beaten-down corners where sales growth is expected to outrun the rest of the market in the long term. 

함의: 물가 충격에도 하락을 되돌린 기술주는 이미 예상 주가수익비율 20배 미만에 거래되며, 장기 비전에도 불구 바겐세일에 진입한 종목도 많다고 펑가함.

US rate markets turned sharply on Wednesday as investors rapidly shifted focus from the prospect of inflation-taming interest-rate hikes to the potential economic damage such tightening might inflict.

함의: 금리인상보다 그에 따른 경기침체를 반영하며 국채 수익률 역전 확대.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said a hot inflation report for June suggested officials should raise rates by at least 75 basis points later this month, but she declined to spell out if she would favor going even bigger. “Certainty the inflation report suggests that there’s no reason to say that a smaller rate increase than we did last time, right, because nothing moved in that direction,” Mester said Wednesday during an interview on Bloomberg Television with Kathleen Hays. Asked if she thought a 100 basis-point rate increase should be considered this month, Mester said that decision would be made at the July 26-27 meeting and that officials would have more economic data by then to factor in. ”We’re going to have the meeting and we’re going to talk about what the appropriate path of policy is,” Mester said. “We don’t have to make a decision today. Still, she added that she’s “not seen any convincing evidence that inflation has turned the corner.”

함의: 인플레이션이 진정되지 않아 적은 폭의 금리인상에 하등의 이유가 없지만, 100bp 인상은 보다 많은 데이터를 통해야 헐 것으로 봄.

Both systematic and discretionary positioning indicators rose slightly this week, but the former continues to be particularly low. Equity positioning for systematic strategy funds moved up slightly to the 4th percentile(z-score: -1.76). Discretionary investor positioning remains underweight equities(22nd percentile, z-score: -0.30), commensurate with a sharp slowdown in growth from current levels(ISM manufacturing at 50) but not yet with a full-blown recession.

보고서: 알고리즘의 주식 포지션은 가장 낮은 수준에 근접, 인간의 주식 포지션은 낮은 영역에 머물고 있음. (Deutsche Bank - Still Hovering At Low Levels)