China is again reminding the world its status as a manufacturing powerhouse. The latest June data shows trade balance logged $98b in surplus, which is over 27% more than Bloomberg’s median estimate of $77b. The year-to-date surplus figure as of June has already surpassed the entire trade surplus of 2018. Blowout exports figures can very well give China growth an extra boost, and it might gives authorities less of an incentive to aggressively devalue the yuan.

함의: 중국의 무역 흑자폭이 추정치를 +27% 상회, 반년 흑자 규모가 2018년간을 규모를 상회하며 제조 강국의 면모를 보여줌.

In Paris there are sun-soaked stomachs strolling Saint-Germain and tanned midriffs scaling Montmartre. Up and down the Rue de Rivoli one can spot shrunken tees, top-and-short two-sets and backless bodices strung with spider-web-fine ties. And en route to one of this week’s haute couture shows, breezy women rode the Métro in linen shirts knotted above belly buttons.

함의: Parisians are wearing crop tops this summer.

Economists project US inflation likely hit a pandemic peak in June that will keep the Federal Reserve geared for another big rate increase. The consumer-price index probably rose 8.8% from a year earlier, the largest jump since 1981, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of the release Wednesday. “This is widely expected to be a really strong print,” Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “Even if it is not, I don’t think that changes the Fed’s perspective in a couple of weeks. We won’t have enough evidence that inflation is convincingly turning over.”

함의: 1981년 이후 최고치를 물가 상승을 기록해도, 그렇지 않아도 명확한 증거가 보이기 전까지 중앙은행은 금리를 계속 올릴 것임.

Money markets are betting on a three-quarter percentage-point hike by Federal Reserve officials later this month, wagering the US will need to ramp up the pace of monetary tightening to tame inflation. “I believe a 75-basis-point hike in July is a fait accompli,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “The Fed needs to stay aggressive now so it can assess the situation in September and possibly take a less aggressive path of tightening in the fourth quarter.”

함의: 75bp 인상은 앙드레 코스톨라니의 'fait accompli'.

Bigger gains that forecast; this isn’t good at all.

The red-hot inflation figures reaffirm that price pressures are rampant and widespread throughout the economy and continue to sap purchasing power and confidence. That will keep Fed officials on an aggressive policy course to rein in demand, and adds pressure to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats whose support has slumped ahead of midterm elections.

함의: 요소를 가리지 않고 모든 영역에서 인플레이션이 발생함.

Swap markets show traders are now pricing in a significant possibility that the Federal Reserve will implement a 100-basis-point hike in July in the wake of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data.

함의: 물가 지표 발표 뒤 7월 금리인상 예상폭은 100bp로 상승함.

You have to wonder if this suggests the Fed will have to keep going with 75-basis-point moves. There’s been no suggestion from policy makers that the September meeting would involve such a move. Meantime, it sure is hard to see how the Fed gets back to quarter-point increments anytime soon.

함의: 중앙은행의 25bp 인상은 당분간 다시 보기 힘들 것.

TINA's at risk. The multi-year market mantra that there's no alternative to equities is facing a major threat as bond yields increasingly look more attractive. The percentage of S&P members with a dividend yield higher than the 10-year yield has fallen to the lowest since 2007, while yields have surged this year as corporate payouts are under pressure.

함의: 채권 수익률보다 높은 배당 수익률을 제공하는 주식 비중이 2007년 이후 최저치로 떨어짐.

The Bank of Canada hiked interest rates by a full percentage point, a surprise move that supercharges efforts to withdraw stimulus before four-decade-high inflation becomes entrenched. Governor Tiff Macklem raised the central bank’s policy rate to 2.5% in a decision announced Wednesday in Ottawa that warned of more hikes to come. The 100-basis-point move is the largest increase since 1998. Markets and economists were anticipating 75 basis points.

함의: 캐나다 중앙은행은 100bp 금리인상과 추가 인상 경고를 통해 인플레이션 통제에 적극적으로 나섬.

The third-largest sell program of the year rolled through stocks on the New York open. Equities took the selling in stride though. Orders of this size are typically not single events. They tend to happen in clusters and that probably means stocks could easily be in store for more losses.

함의: 미국 개장 시 동시 다발적 작용에 의한 것으로 추정되는 올해 세번째 규모의 알고리즘 매도가 있었고, 시장은 물량을 모두 소화함.

• TICK Index: The TICK Index represents the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus the number trading on a downtick.

"The noblest pleasure is the joy of understanding."

- Leonardo Da Vinci

Andrej Karpathy, Tesla Inc.’s top artificial-intelligence executive and the director of its Autopilot self-driving system, is planning to depart the automaker. The executive, who joined Tesla in 2017, announced his departure in a series of tweets on Wednesday. Karpathy led the computer-vision teams -- overseeing the technology at the core of Autopilot -- in addition to groups responsible for data labeling and deployment of the feature.

함의: 테슬라 내에서 인공지능 및 자율주행을 이끌던 임원이 자동차 업계를 떠난다고 밝힘.

The Nasdaq 100 reversed a 2.1% decline to slip just 0.1% at the close. As much as anything, analysts pointed to the already-formidable repricing that has occurred in tech stocks this year in explaining Wednesday’s rebound. The index had lost a third of its value from its recent peak after traders dumped richly valued stocks as the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve stiffened. At 20 times forecast earnings, the Nasdaq 100 is trading near the lowest multiple since the aftermath of the pandemic crash. To JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, bargains are emerging in beaten-down corners where sales growth is expected to outrun the rest of the market in the long term. 

함의: 물가 충격에도 하락을 되돌린 기술주는 이미 예상 주가수익비율 20배 미만에 거래되며, 장기 비전에도 불구 바겐세일에 진입한 종목도 많다고 펑가함.