CNH has strengthened rapidly early on Monday morning. This is partly on news that Shanghai has eased Covid testing rules, and partly because the psychologically important 7.00 level has been broken.
Bottom-line: 모건스탠리가 2년만에 중국에 대한 투자의견을 상향하며 월가의 중국에 대한 강세론에 합류함. 경제재개를 포함한 다양한 긍정적 이슈들이 투자의견 상향을 뒷받침하며, 중국증시가 수익과 가치 측면에서 모두 회복 국면에 있게 될 것이라 전망함. MSCI 중국 지수 기준 목표를 종전 59 포인트에서 70 포인트로 10% 이상의 상승여력을 가지는 수준까지 상향함.
Morgan Stanley is turning bullish again on Chinese stocks after almost two years, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street banks that are sanguine on the nation’s outlook as it moves to relax Covid-19 measures. “Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set toward reopening warrant an upgrade,” strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note dated Sunday. “We are at the beginning of a multi-quarter recovery in earnings revisions and valuations.” The brokerage lifted China to overweight from an equal-weight position it had held since January 2021. It raised its end-2023 targets for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 59 and for the Hang Seng Index to 21,200 from 18,200. The new targets imply more than 10% upside, even after stocks surged in Hong Kong and on the mainland Monday as authorities accelerated a shift toward reducing pandemic curbs.
Morgan Stanley is turning bullish again on Chinese stocks after almost two years, joining a growing chorus of Wall Street banks that are sanguine on the nation’s outlook as it moves to relax Covid-19 measures. “Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set toward reopening warrant an upgrade,” strategists including Laura Wang wrote in a note dated Sunday. “We are at the beginning of a multi-quarter recovery in earnings revisions and valuations.” The brokerage lifted China to overweight from an equal-weight position it had held since January 2021. It raised its end-2023 targets for the MSCI China Index to 70 from 59 and for the Hang Seng Index to 21,200 from 18,200. The new targets imply more than 10% upside, even after stocks surged in Hong Kong and on the mainland Monday as authorities accelerated a shift toward reducing pandemic curbs.
Bottom-line: 사우디 아라비아는 주요 시장인 아시아에 대한 1월 원유 공급가를 벤치마크 보다 2.2달러 높게 공급, 기존에 벤치마크 대비 3.25달러 높게 공급했던 것 대비 더 낮은 가격으로 제시했으며, 트레이더들이 예상했던 수준임. 주요한 원인은 인플레이션과 경제둔화에 따른 수요 감소 우려임. 이 공급가는 지난 3월 이후 최저치를 기록한 것임. 쿠웨이트 또한 지난 금요일 고객들이 원유 수입 확대를 꺼리고 있다고 함. 아람코의 이런 결정은 오펙 회원국이 산출량을 유지하겠다는 발표 이후 나왔으며, 동일한 가격을 제시한 미국과 달리 유럽에 대한 공급가 역시 더 낮췄음.
Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, its main market, in a sign the outlook for demand remains fragile amid continued Covid lockdowns in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 a barrel above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey, and takes the price to its lowest level since March. Brent crude’s up 13% this year to almost $88 a barrel. But it has fallen from more than $120 a barrel in June amid increasing concern among investors about rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports next year. Aramco’s decision came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners -- a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia -- opted to keep output steady. The company also reduced most prices for European customers, while leaving those for the US unchanged.
Saudi Arabia lowered most oil prices for Asia, its main market, in a sign the outlook for demand remains fragile amid continued Covid lockdowns in China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco cut its key Arab Light grade for January sales to Asia by $2.20 to $3.25 a barrel above the regional benchmark. The move was in line with refiners and traders’ prediction of a drop of $2.10, according to a Bloomberg survey, and takes the price to its lowest level since March. Brent crude’s up 13% this year to almost $88 a barrel. But it has fallen from more than $120 a barrel in June amid increasing concern among investors about rising inflation and a global economic slowdown. Saudi Arabia’s neighbor and fellow OPEC member Kuwait on Friday said that oil customers were reluctant to boost imports next year. Aramco’s decision came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners -- a 23-nation group led by the Saudis and Russia -- opted to keep output steady. The company also reduced most prices for European customers, while leaving those for the US unchanged.
Docent: 지난 금요일 발표 된 강건한 고용 데이터에 초기 하락했던 주식시장이 반등한 것에 대해 도슨트 하고자 함. 결론부터 말하자면 금요일 고용 데이터가 수정 발표되었을 때 그다지 훌륭하지 못한 고용시장 환경을 보여줄 것이며, 이는 중앙은행이 정책을 선회하고 더 나아가 금리를 시장 참여자들의 생각보다 더 인하하게 만들 수도 있음. 11월 26만 3천건의 고용이 창출되었고, 실업률은 주기의 최저에 해당하는 3.7%, 시간당 평균임금은 전년 대비 +5.1% 증가하면서 초기 발표 때 주식 및 채권의 낙폭이 컸음. 이처럼 중요한 데이터가 자주 큰 폭으로 수정 발표 된다는 점은 경제지표의 다소 지저분한 비밀인데, 이번 고용 데이터의 경우 응답률이 50% 미만으로 3년래 최저를 기록했음. 이를 과거부터 추적해보면 금요일 발표 된 고용 데이터보다 최종 수정 된 데이터는 훨씬 낮은 일자리 창출을 보여주게 될 것이란 것임.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
The jobs market is likely not as robust as recent releases would imply. As data is subsequently revised lower, the Fed may decide to turn course faster and cut rates by more than the market currently expects. On the surface last Friday’s jobs numbers were strong. Payrolls showed 263k jobs created in November, while the unemployment rate remained near its cycle lows at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% y/y. Stocks and bonds initially slumped, before recouping some of their losses. However, November’s payrolls saw an extraordinarily low response rate, which typically means that payrolls will be revised much lower. It’s a dirty secret of economic data that it is often heavily revised after the fact, with payrolls seeing some of the biggest changes. Even more problematic is the biggest revisions tend to happen at turning points, such as recessions. Therefore optically real-time data heading into slowdowns looks much stronger than it really is. The response rate collapsed to under 50%, a thirty-year low. If we look at the response rate for the first release of payrolls (which we got last Friday) versus the response rate for the final release, we see the lower this is, it typically means payrolls is subsequently revised lower. If the relationship in the chart below holds, we should expect payrolls to be revised much lower in the coming months.
Factory orders and durable goods orders topped expectations, as did the ISM services index, adding to concern the Fed may tilt toward higher-for-longer.
Bottom-line: 공공장소 이용 시 바이러스 음성 검사를 더 이상 필요로 하지 않는다 함.
On Tuesday morning, the capital of Beijing said that negative tests would no longer be needed to enter a range of public venues, following cities from financial center Shanghai to tech hub Shenzhen in dialing back testing requirements as officials seek to meet a more targeted, less onerous Covid playbook.
On Tuesday morning, the capital of Beijing said that negative tests would no longer be needed to enter a range of public venues, following cities from financial center Shanghai to tech hub Shenzhen in dialing back testing requirements as officials seek to meet a more targeted, less onerous Covid playbook.
Bottom-line: 러시아와 우크라이나 전쟁은 한국 방위산업의 수출길을 여는 계기가 되었음. 소련 시대의 재래식 무기에 의존하던 폴란드와 같은 국가들이 더는 신식 무기 시스템에 대응되지 않음을 깨달았기 때문이며, 덕분에 한국의 올해 방위산업 부문 총 수출액은 170억 달러로 작년 72억 달러의 두 배를 훨씬 넘었음. 한국은 다소 희소한 위치의 공급자 역할을 하고 있는데, 상대적으로 편안한 가격대로 팔고 있지만 그것이 본인 국가의 옆에 있는 북한의 재래식 무기를 무력화 시킬 수 있는 최신식의 시스템까지 갖추고 있기 때문임. 미국 또한 중국과 경쟁 속에 유럽으로의 한국 무기 수출을 용인하고 있음.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea’s defense exports, which are on track to more than double this year as buyers seek to replace Soviet-era weaponry with higher tech arms from the Asian country. South Korea’s defense exports totaled about $17 billion as of November this year, up from $7.25 billion a year before. Major buyers include countries that have for decades relied on stockpiles of aging Russian weaponry, like Poland, but have seen that many of those systems are no match for the weapons that arm the US and its allies. South Korea has found itself uniquely positioned in the global arms market with weapons that are relatively affordable and meant to defeat Soviet-based conventional systems used by its neighbor North Korea. Meanwhile, Washington seems to be giving the green light to ally Seoul to sell to states in places like eastern Europe as US defense contractors race to fill orders for weapons that will go to Kyiv and Taipei, which is staring down threats from China.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has opened a door for South Korea’s defense exports, which are on track to more than double this year as buyers seek to replace Soviet-era weaponry with higher tech arms from the Asian country. South Korea’s defense exports totaled about $17 billion as of November this year, up from $7.25 billion a year before. Major buyers include countries that have for decades relied on stockpiles of aging Russian weaponry, like Poland, but have seen that many of those systems are no match for the weapons that arm the US and its allies. South Korea has found itself uniquely positioned in the global arms market with weapons that are relatively affordable and meant to defeat Soviet-based conventional systems used by its neighbor North Korea. Meanwhile, Washington seems to be giving the green light to ally Seoul to sell to states in places like eastern Europe as US defense contractors race to fill orders for weapons that will go to Kyiv and Taipei, which is staring down threats from China.
Bottom-line: 레고랜드의 2,050억원에 달하는 채무불이행이 1,690조원에 달하는 한국 신용시장이 금융위기 이후 최악의 붕괴를 겪게 만든 시작이 되기 전까진, 도심에서 멀리 떨어져 기차로 몇시간을 가야하는 이곳이 인플레이션과 금융안정을 위한 사투에서 전형이 될지 누구도 몰랐을 것임. 또한 IMF에서도 상대적으로 안정적인 금융환경에 있다고 평가했던 한국조차도 이런 신용위험의 확산에 취약할 수 있단 사실을 드러냈음. 레고랜드 사태는 신용시장의 첫번째 중요한 신호였고, 이후 단기 신용시장의 금리가 급격히 상승함. BIS에서 오랜 기간 근무한 윌리엄 화이트는 이런 한국 시장을 광산의 카나리아 같은 역할이라고 칭했는데, 오랜 기간 쌓여 온 레버리지와 무분별한 금융행태들이 이번 긴축 주기에서 피하려고 애썼던 최악의 사태를 마주보고 있게 되었다고 함. 단기 금리 급등에 따라 국가가 이를 안정시키기 위해 자금을 투입하면서 최악의 붕괴는 막았지만, 여전히 금리는 14년래 최고치에 머물고 있음. 금융위기 이전에도 한국은 이와 같은 수순을 밟았는데, 가계부채가 증가하고 아파트 가격이 하락했었음. 이웃하고 있는 중국은 이미 종전에 없었던 부동산 위기를 경험하고 있음.
Sitting in a lake teeming with wildlife, several hours by train from Seoul, Korea’s Legoland is an unlikely poster child for the global struggle to fight inflation while maintaining financial stability. But a default on 205 billion won ($155 million) worth of debt by the theme park’s developer triggered the worst meltdown in South Korea’s 1,690 trillion won credit market since the global financial crisis. And as interest-rate hikes batter real estate markets around the world, it’s a reminder that even relatively safer financial systems like Korea’s — labeled “resilient” earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund — face threats of contagion. Korea’s central bank embarked in August last year on one of the earliest rate-hike cycles in the world, and is still battling inflation that at one point reached the highest level in more than two decades. The default by Legoland’s developer was the first major sign of trouble in the local debt market. The shock sent short-term credit yields soaring. Korea “is absolutely a canary in the mine shaft,” said William White, a former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, who for decades has stressed the dangers of super-low interest rates. Countries “tightening after such a long period of inviting leverage and imprudent financial behavior — you could potentially trigger the crisis that you’ve been trying to avoid.”. As short-term credit yields skyrocketed, authorities in Seoul pledged billions of dollars in support for financial markets. While that’s helped staunch the meltdown, yields in the short-term money market remain near 14-year highs. Even before this, Korea had the building blocks of a full-blown crisis: There’s been a run-up in household indebtedness and prices for apartments declined. Such developments preceded the US subprime crisis in 2007. And close to Korea, China has been stung in the past two years by an unprecedented property debt crisis, as defaults surge to a record.
Sitting in a lake teeming with wildlife, several hours by train from Seoul, Korea’s Legoland is an unlikely poster child for the global struggle to fight inflation while maintaining financial stability. But a default on 205 billion won ($155 million) worth of debt by the theme park’s developer triggered the worst meltdown in South Korea’s 1,690 trillion won credit market since the global financial crisis. And as interest-rate hikes batter real estate markets around the world, it’s a reminder that even relatively safer financial systems like Korea’s — labeled “resilient” earlier this year by the International Monetary Fund — face threats of contagion. Korea’s central bank embarked in August last year on one of the earliest rate-hike cycles in the world, and is still battling inflation that at one point reached the highest level in more than two decades. The default by Legoland’s developer was the first major sign of trouble in the local debt market. The shock sent short-term credit yields soaring. Korea “is absolutely a canary in the mine shaft,” said William White, a former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, who for decades has stressed the dangers of super-low interest rates. Countries “tightening after such a long period of inviting leverage and imprudent financial behavior — you could potentially trigger the crisis that you’ve been trying to avoid.”. As short-term credit yields skyrocketed, authorities in Seoul pledged billions of dollars in support for financial markets. While that’s helped staunch the meltdown, yields in the short-term money market remain near 14-year highs. Even before this, Korea had the building blocks of a full-blown crisis: There’s been a run-up in household indebtedness and prices for apartments declined. Such developments preceded the US subprime crisis in 2007. And close to Korea, China has been stung in the past two years by an unprecedented property debt crisis, as defaults surge to a record.
Implication: 중국 정부가 내년 경제성장률 목표치를 5%로 설정할 것으로 관련있는 익명의 소식이 전했음. 이는 상대적으로 높은 성장률이고 달성하기 어려운 목표일 수도 있지만, 이렇게 목표를 설정할 경우 지방정부들이 바이러스 확진자 억제보다 경제 부양에 더욱 힘을 쓰게 되지 않겠냐는 의도가 있음.
Senior Chinese officials are debating an economic growth target for next year of around 5%, according to people familiar with the discussion, as Beijing shifts gears toward bolstering the recovery. Some officials argue that setting a goal at a relatively high level would help local governments shift the focus of their work away from Covid controls to boosting the economy, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Other officials are concerned a target of around 5% could be too ambitious, they said.
Senior Chinese officials are debating an economic growth target for next year of around 5%, according to people familiar with the discussion, as Beijing shifts gears toward bolstering the recovery. Some officials argue that setting a goal at a relatively high level would help local governments shift the focus of their work away from Covid controls to boosting the economy, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Other officials are concerned a target of around 5% could be too ambitious, they said.
Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 20년 전 BRICs라는 개념을 정의했고, 이번에는 향후 50년의 경제를 전망하는 자료를 작성함. 이 자료는 다음의 내용을 특징적으로 강조하고 있는데, i) 인구 성장의 둔화로 인한 노동인구 감소에 따른 성장률 저하가 발생하면서, 전세계 성장률은 연 평균 3% 이하로 떨어지게 될 것, ii) 아시아 경제가 전세계 경제를 주도하는 현재의 모습은 계속 강화되면서 2050년 세계 5대 경제대국은 중국, 미국, 인도, 인도네시아 순서가 될 것임. iii) 다른 경제국과 별개의 독립적 성장을 보인 미국 예외주의, 그것이 또 다시 반복될 것 같지는 않음. iv) 지난 시간의 성장 덕분에 국가들 간 불평등은 감소할 것이지만, 국내 내부의 불평등은 되려 높아질 것임.
Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075. We identify four major themes for the global economy. Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth. Our projections imply that global growth will average a little under 3% per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path, primarily reflecting slower labour force growth. Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% per year to less than 1%, and is expected to fall to close to zero by 2075. Theme #2: EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth. Our projections imply that the world's five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs). By 2075, with the appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could be among the world's largest economies. Theme #3: A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated. The US's relative performance has been stronger than expected over the past decade. However, history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the next decade. US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, and we expect some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of recent years to be unwound over the next 10 years. Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. Twenty years of EM convergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes. However, while income inequality between countries has fallen, income inequality within countries has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.
Two decades since we first set out long-term growth projections for the BRICs economies, we are updating and expanding those projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075. We identify four major themes for the global economy. Theme #1: Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth. Our projections imply that global growth will average a little under 3% per year over the next ten years and will be on a gradually declining path, primarily reflecting slower labour force growth. Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% per year to less than 1%, and is expected to fall to close to zero by 2075. Theme #2: EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth. Our projections imply that the world's five largest economies in 2050 (measured in real USD) will be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany (with Indonesia displacing Brazil and Russia among the largest EMs). By 2075, with the appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt could be among the world's largest economies. Theme #3: A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated. The US's relative performance has been stronger than expected over the past decade. However, history suggests it is unlikely to repeat this over the next decade. US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, and we expect some of the US Dollar’s exceptional strength of recent years to be unwound over the next 10 years. Theme #4: Less global inequality, more local inequality. Twenty years of EM convergence has resulted in a more equal distribution of global incomes. However, while income inequality between countries has fallen, income inequality within countries has risen. This poses a major challenge to the future of globalisation.
Bottom-line: 신규 벤처 캐피탈 투자가 20년래 최저치로 감소함. 금리가 상승하고 거시경제 환경이 불확실할 뿐 아니라 유통시장 거래 또한 위축되면서 나타난 현상으로, 조사기관에 따르면 올해 11개월 간 신규 투자 된 금액은 2,860억 달러로 전년 대비 -42% 감소, 이는 닷컴붕괴나 금융위기 때 감소폭을 넘어서는 것임. 10년 넘게 투자를 지속 확대 한 벤처 캐피탈들은 높은 금리로 인한 자본비용, 기술기업의 성장에 대한 회의론이 대두되면서 미국과 중국 양대 시장에서 각각 -45%, -50%의 전년 대비 투자액 감소를 보였음. 업계 관계자는 조류가 변하고 있으며, 큰 폭의 투자 감소가 이어질 것으로 전망했음.
Venture capital investments are on track for the sharpest drop in more than two decades this year, surpassing the declines of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis amid rising interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties and a public market downturn. The value of new VC deals globally is down 42% in the first 11 months of this year compared to last, to $286 billion, according to research firm Preqin. That’s the deepest slump the researchers have recorded yet, surpassing the nadirs of the early 2000s and the 34% collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. Venture capitalists, who ratcheted up spending over the last decade, are pulling back after rising interest rates put a premium on capital and challenged the tech industry’s growth-at-all-costs mindset. Deal activity dropped sharply in the two biggest venture markets, with declines in aggregate deal value of 50% in China and 45% in the US so far this year. “The tides are changing,” said Evan Thorpe, principal at SixThirty Ventures, a US firm that invests globally in early-stage startups. “We’re seeing a big comedown from the peaks of last year.”
Venture capital investments are on track for the sharpest drop in more than two decades this year, surpassing the declines of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis amid rising interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties and a public market downturn. The value of new VC deals globally is down 42% in the first 11 months of this year compared to last, to $286 billion, according to research firm Preqin. That’s the deepest slump the researchers have recorded yet, surpassing the nadirs of the early 2000s and the 34% collapse after the 2008 financial crisis. Venture capitalists, who ratcheted up spending over the last decade, are pulling back after rising interest rates put a premium on capital and challenged the tech industry’s growth-at-all-costs mindset. Deal activity dropped sharply in the two biggest venture markets, with declines in aggregate deal value of 50% in China and 45% in the US so far this year. “The tides are changing,” said Evan Thorpe, principal at SixThirty Ventures, a US firm that invests globally in early-stage startups. “We’re seeing a big comedown from the peaks of last year.”