Bottom-line: 제이피모건과 노무라증권에 따르면 기계적으로 추세를 추종하여 매수/매도하는 전략들이 200일 이동평균선과 같은 주요 지지선을 주가지수가 하회할 때, 약 500억 달러 규모의 매도가 발생할 수 있다고 함. 금요일 종가 기준으로 S&P 500 지수의 200일 이동평균선은 1% 남짓한 여유만을 남겨두고 있었음. 추세를 추종하는 이 전략(CTA Strategy)의 경우 지난 10월 이후 주식시장 상승 반전의 주요 동인이었음. 다만, 이런 자금의 움직임을 추정하는 모형들은 각기 다른 결과로 나타나기도 함(도이치뱅크의 자료를 볼 경우, CTA는 2년래 최고치로 현재 주식을 매수 중임).
After fueling the big Wall Street rebound, trend-following quants now look poised to offload stocks if the S&P 500 falls below a key technical threshold, warns JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk. Should the benchmark gauge slip under its average price from the past 200 days, so-called commodity trading advisors could be forced to unload about $50 billion of equities, the JPMorgan team estimated. The index on Friday came within 1% of the threshold, which sat near 3,940. Fresh selling would deepen a retreat from global stocks by CTAs that is, according to Nomura Securities International, already at $40 billion in the past two weeks. CTAs were among the quant players that helped spur the equity rally since October only to turn into sellers in 2023, dimming the market’s new-year advance. Getting a clear picture of the quant world isn’t easy, and models built on subjective assumptions often spit out different numbers on money flows. While far from an exact science, such projections offer a lens into the positioning among fast-money traders, a technical force that Wall Street is increasingly fixated on in a market where fundamental narratives are shifting constantly.
After fueling the big Wall Street rebound, trend-following quants now look poised to offload stocks if the S&P 500 falls below a key technical threshold, warns JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk. Should the benchmark gauge slip under its average price from the past 200 days, so-called commodity trading advisors could be forced to unload about $50 billion of equities, the JPMorgan team estimated. The index on Friday came within 1% of the threshold, which sat near 3,940. Fresh selling would deepen a retreat from global stocks by CTAs that is, according to Nomura Securities International, already at $40 billion in the past two weeks. CTAs were among the quant players that helped spur the equity rally since October only to turn into sellers in 2023, dimming the market’s new-year advance. Getting a clear picture of the quant world isn’t easy, and models built on subjective assumptions often spit out different numbers on money flows. While far from an exact science, such projections offer a lens into the positioning among fast-money traders, a technical force that Wall Street is increasingly fixated on in a market where fundamental narratives are shifting constantly.
Technical Story: 피보나치 수열로 알려진 되돌림, 그리고 미국 10년물 국채금리에 관한 기술적 분석임. 최근 국채금리가 지속 상승하며 4%라는 도달하기 어려운 수준을 과연 돌파할 수 있을지 관심이 쏠리고 있음. 특히 10년물 미국 국채를 1981년 15.84%의 금리에서 2020년 0.31%의 금리를 연결했을 때 23.6%의 첫 피보나치 되돌림 수준이 4%기 때문임. 많은 투자자들이 10년물 국채금리가 4%에 진입하면 상당한 국채 투자의 매력이 있지만, 그만큼 뚫기 어려운 저항선을 돌파할지도 귀추가 주목되는 일임.
Some mixed data and perhaps a burst of month-end rebalancing flows helped Treasuries rebound overnight. But that also draws further attention to just how tough a nut the 4% level is to crack for benchmark 10-year yields. A number of investors and strategists have flagged 4% as the sort of level where 10-year Treasuries become very attractive — at times adding a wry comment about the power of round numbers. This particular round number may also have some extra oomph thanks to a long-term trend line derived from the workings of Italian 13th century mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, later known as Fibonacci. Traders often use the sequences he described to guide their positioning, and 3.98% or so happens to be the first, 23.6% retracement of the four-decade decline in the yield to 0.31% in 2020 from its 15.84% peak in 1981.
Some mixed data and perhaps a burst of month-end rebalancing flows helped Treasuries rebound overnight. But that also draws further attention to just how tough a nut the 4% level is to crack for benchmark 10-year yields. A number of investors and strategists have flagged 4% as the sort of level where 10-year Treasuries become very attractive — at times adding a wry comment about the power of round numbers. This particular round number may also have some extra oomph thanks to a long-term trend line derived from the workings of Italian 13th century mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, later known as Fibonacci. Traders often use the sequences he described to guide their positioning, and 3.98% or so happens to be the first, 23.6% retracement of the four-decade decline in the yield to 0.31% in 2020 from its 15.84% peak in 1981.
Bottom-line: 프랑스 물가가 여전히 기록적으로 높은 수준을 유지하면서, 중앙은행이 더 높은 정책금리를 향하도록, 대통령이 생활 물가 상승에 따른 정치적 압박을 받도록 함.
French inflation accelerated to a record in February, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver more interest-rate hikes and raising political risks for President Emmanuel Macron over the rising cost of living.
French inflation accelerated to a record in February, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to deliver more interest-rate hikes and raising political risks for President Emmanuel Macron over the rising cost of living.
Market Reaction: 프랑스 및 스페인 물가가 생각보다 높게 발표되자 시장 참여자들은 유럽 중앙은행의 최종정책금리가 내년 2월이면 4%에 이를 것이라 단정짓게 됨.
Traders cranked up European Central Bank rate hike wagers after French and Spanish inflation figures came in unexpectedly hotter than expected in February. For the first time, money markets are fully pricing in a 4% ECB terminal rate, which is expected to be reached by February 2024. That compares to a 3.5% rate expected at the start of the year and would exceed the peak for euro-area interest rates seen more than two decades ago.
Traders cranked up European Central Bank rate hike wagers after French and Spanish inflation figures came in unexpectedly hotter than expected in February. For the first time, money markets are fully pricing in a 4% ECB terminal rate, which is expected to be reached by February 2024. That compares to a 3.5% rate expected at the start of the year and would exceed the peak for euro-area interest rates seen more than two decades ago.
Technical Story: 주가지수 선물과 거래량에 대한 기술적 분석임. 유럽 주가지수는 미국보다 상대성과 우위를 점하며 두 달간 강세를 유지하고 있고 최근 발표되는 강한 인플레이션 지표조차 투자자들이 주식에서 멀리 떠나도록 하지 못했음. 특히, 한달 간 주가지수 선물 가격은 일정한 범위 내에 움직였지만, 장 중 저점에서 일간 거래의 대부분이 발생하며 저점이 오면 매수하겠다는 긍정적 투자심리를 확인시켜주고 있음.
Nearly two months into the year, the European equity market is still running strong, with even the latest warning about sticky inflation failing to throw investors off their stride for long. Stocks are faring particularly well against their US peers, leaving bears waiting for a catalyst that could derail the rally. In February, traders showed an appetite for European equities, with persistent dip buying in Euro Stoxx 50 futures suggesting positive sentiment. While the index has been relatively range bound, “it remains in an uptrend, so we have to respect that for now in the absence of other signals,” says LCM technical analyst Ben Kelly.
Nearly two months into the year, the European equity market is still running strong, with even the latest warning about sticky inflation failing to throw investors off their stride for long. Stocks are faring particularly well against their US peers, leaving bears waiting for a catalyst that could derail the rally. In February, traders showed an appetite for European equities, with persistent dip buying in Euro Stoxx 50 futures suggesting positive sentiment. While the index has been relatively range bound, “it remains in an uptrend, so we have to respect that for now in the absence of other signals,” says LCM technical analyst Ben Kelly.
Technical Story: 중국의 제조업 지표가 2012년 4월 이후 최고치를 기록하고, 비제조업 지표도 상향 개선되며 아시아 증시와 미국 야간 선물 지수를 상승 반전 시켰음. 최근 지속 하향 추세에 있던 항셍 지수가 3% 상승 중인데, 볼린저밴드 하단과 피보나치 되돌림 두번째인 38.2% 수준에서 지지를 받고 반등한 모습임.
Chinese stocks rallied while other Asian markets erased declines after factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy improved more than analysts forecast. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, the highest reading since April 2012. A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the services and construction sectors improved to 56.3. The Hang Seng China stock gauge rallied more than 3% as the gauge of China’s manufacturing activity climbed to the highest level in more than a decade. An Asian equity benchmark changed course and rose by the most in a month, while futures for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 all pared losses.
Chinese stocks rallied while other Asian markets erased declines after factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy improved more than analysts forecast. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, the highest reading since April 2012. A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the services and construction sectors improved to 56.3. The Hang Seng China stock gauge rallied more than 3% as the gauge of China’s manufacturing activity climbed to the highest level in more than a decade. An Asian equity benchmark changed course and rose by the most in a month, while futures for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 all pared losses.
Docent: 우리가 경제를 판단할 때 바라보는 지표는 두 가지 속성에 근거함. 설문에 의한 지표와 실제 경제 활동에 의한 지표로, 이를 흔히 소프트 데이터와 하드 데이터라 부르며, 이에 대한 골드만삭스 보고서를 활용한 도슨트임. 최근 미국 경제의 흥미로운 특징 중 하나가 실제 경제에 근거한 지표와 설문에 의존하는 지표가 말하는 것이 크게 다르다는 것임. 실물 지표는 경기침체가 멀리 있다고 말하는 반면, 설문 지표는 경기를 암울하게 보고 있기 때문임. 이 둘 간의 차이를 역사적으로 살펴보면, 바이러스 대확산 시기를 제외하고 이처럼 큰 폭의 괴리를 보이는게 이례적이란 사실을 알 수 있으며, 특히나 실물 지표가 긍정일 때 설문 지표는 부정인 경우(Hard data(+), Soft data(-))가 얼마나 드문지도 알 수 있음. 두 지표 간 차이는 지난 1월 역사적 최고치를 기록했고, 2월에도 여전히 높은 수준의 실물이 설문보다 긍정적인 상태를 유지했음. 골드만삭스의 경우 현재 국면에서 회사채 투자자는 설문에 의한 지표를 덜 중요시하고 실물에 의한 데이터에 더욱 의존해야 한다고 함. 회사채 시장의 성과를 볼 경우 경기순환적인 곳이 경기방어적인 곳보다 우수한 성과를 거두었으며, 이는 실물 지표의 긍정적 데이터에 동의하고 있다는 것을 보여주는 것이기 때문임. 그렇다면, 우리는 설문에 의한 지표를 계속 무시해도 될까? 그렇지는 않음. 만일 신용시장이 경기침체 위험을 저평가 중이라면 이 데이터를 주시해야 할 것임. 또한 실물 데이터가 현재 상태를 잘 보여주는 반면, 설문 데이터는 경제 방향을 예측하는데 도움이 될만큼 신속하고 많은 정보를 제공하기 때문에 무시할 순 없음.
A peculiar feature in recent US economic data has been the divergent message between the hard and soft data. The hard data have continued to show signs that a recession is very much avoidable, while the soft data are painting a more dismal outlook. Exhibit 1 shows just how unusual this divergence is, from a historical standpoint, by plotting the difference between GS Hard and Soft CAIs (Current Activity Indicators) over the past thirty years, excluding the years in which COVID-19 drove data anomalies. Not only is the magnitude of the difference between these two series still hovering at a very elevated level in February, after hitting a record high in January, but this exhibit also highlights just how infrequently the Hard CAI signals growth (a positive value) at the same time as the Soft CAI signals contraction (a negative value). Our US Economists have noted several reasons why the importance of the soft data should be downplayed at the current juncture, maintaining their modal “no recession” forecast and putting more weight on the quantitative (hard) vs. qualitative (soft) data. Exhibit 2 shows, so far at least, that credit markets agree with this view as USD HY cyclical sectors (excluding Energy) have been outperforming their defensive counterparts (excluding Pharmaceuticals). That said, should investors be putting more weight on the hard or soft data to formulate their views on future cyclicals vs. defensives performance? We examine three possibilities: 1. Credit is underpricing recession risks and investors should take heed of the Soft CAI, 2. The Hard CAI is presenting a more accurate denoscription of the state of the economy and credit is reflecting that by not rebuilding a recession risk-premium, or 3. Credit markets incorporate information quickly enough such that the CAIs are of limited use as a forecasting tool. A corollary of this last option is that year-to-date cyclical outperformance implies the signal from the Hard CAI is a more accurate denoscription of the current economy.
A peculiar feature in recent US economic data has been the divergent message between the hard and soft data. The hard data have continued to show signs that a recession is very much avoidable, while the soft data are painting a more dismal outlook. Exhibit 1 shows just how unusual this divergence is, from a historical standpoint, by plotting the difference between GS Hard and Soft CAIs (Current Activity Indicators) over the past thirty years, excluding the years in which COVID-19 drove data anomalies. Not only is the magnitude of the difference between these two series still hovering at a very elevated level in February, after hitting a record high in January, but this exhibit also highlights just how infrequently the Hard CAI signals growth (a positive value) at the same time as the Soft CAI signals contraction (a negative value). Our US Economists have noted several reasons why the importance of the soft data should be downplayed at the current juncture, maintaining their modal “no recession” forecast and putting more weight on the quantitative (hard) vs. qualitative (soft) data. Exhibit 2 shows, so far at least, that credit markets agree with this view as USD HY cyclical sectors (excluding Energy) have been outperforming their defensive counterparts (excluding Pharmaceuticals). That said, should investors be putting more weight on the hard or soft data to formulate their views on future cyclicals vs. defensives performance? We examine three possibilities: 1. Credit is underpricing recession risks and investors should take heed of the Soft CAI, 2. The Hard CAI is presenting a more accurate denoscription of the state of the economy and credit is reflecting that by not rebuilding a recession risk-premium, or 3. Credit markets incorporate information quickly enough such that the CAIs are of limited use as a forecasting tool. A corollary of this last option is that year-to-date cyclical outperformance implies the signal from the Hard CAI is a more accurate denoscription of the current economy.
• In Case You Missed It (Feb. 2023)
- 이유없는 반항의 치킨게임 (02/03)
- 중국의 경제는 지속 긍정적일 것 (02/08)
- 치킨게임에서 투자자가 항복 (02/10)
- 지수 상승률 0%, 하지만 액티브 매니저에겐 좋은 주식 선별 기회 (02/11)
- 국채 수익률 곡선 역전이 회복되면 증시도 긍정적 (02/16)
- 만기 24시간 미만 옵션에 대해 (02/16)
- 중국은 이제 경제 회복 국면에 진입할 것 (02/20)
- 이유없는 반항의 치킨게임 (02/03)
- 중국의 경제는 지속 긍정적일 것 (02/08)
- 치킨게임에서 투자자가 항복 (02/10)
- 지수 상승률 0%, 하지만 액티브 매니저에겐 좋은 주식 선별 기회 (02/11)
- 국채 수익률 곡선 역전이 회복되면 증시도 긍정적 (02/16)
- 만기 24시간 미만 옵션에 대해 (02/16)
- 중국은 이제 경제 회복 국면에 진입할 것 (02/20)
Docent: 인플레이션을 완전히 진압하기 위해 중앙은행은 임금 상승이 촉발하는 연쇄 효과를 두려워 하고 있었고, 결국 고용시장을 무너지게 만들어야 한다는 결론에 이르기도 했음. 그러나 최근 완전고용에 가까워짐에도 불구하고 임금 상승은 둔화되고 있음. 이에 대한 도슨트임.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues confront a “legitimate head scratcher” as they probe how high to raise interest rates in the coming months: Why is wage growth slowing if the jobs market is so tight?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues confront a “legitimate head scratcher” as they probe how high to raise interest rates in the coming months: Why is wage growth slowing if the jobs market is so tight?
1) 미국의 실업률이 50년래 최저치로 하락하면서 노동자들이 사업자에게 요구할 수 있는 힘이 더 강해졌다고 판단됨. 그럼에도 불구하고 임금 및 복리후생과 관련한 지표는 되려 악화되고 있음.
The paradox: the US unemployment rate has tumbled to the lowest in more than half a century — seemingly giving workers all the more power to demand higher pay. But a key measure of wages and benefits is decelerating. It results in what White House economist Jared Bernstein calls a real “head scratcher.”
The paradox: the US unemployment rate has tumbled to the lowest in more than half a century — seemingly giving workers all the more power to demand higher pay. But a key measure of wages and benefits is decelerating. It results in what White House economist Jared Bernstein calls a real “head scratcher.”
2) 공급망 병목현상이 풀리고 경제활동이 정상화 되면서 중앙은행은 인플레이션의 가장 고위험 분야를 임금(의료, 식당 등 서비스 산업)이라 지목했고, 많은 분석가들인 고용에 심각한 타격을 줘야만 임금 압력을 완화시킬 수 있을 것이라 했음. 그럼에도 불구, 최근 관심이 높아지는 가설은 임금의 역전인데, 이는 중앙은행이 원하는 경기침체 없는 인플레이션에 희망을 주는 개념임. 무디스의 분석가는 이런 높은 고용 수요에도 불구 낮은 임금 상승률 현상은 인플레이션 기대 하락에 기인한 것으로 분석함. 이로 인해 기업은 임금을 더 높여야 한다는 부담을 덜고 있음.
But there’s another scenario starting to gain attention: call it a reverse wage-price spiral. And it may be the best bet for Powell’s coveted “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without a harmful recession. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posits the wage deceleration is due to a downshift in inflation expectations held by workers, as well as their bosses. Reduced expectations for living costs — reflecting lower gasoline prices and the anticipated impact of aggressive Fed interest-rate increases — lead to tempered wage demands. That in turn means less pressure on companies to raise prices. For the Fed, the bottom line is it may not have to force such a big downturn in the job market.
But there’s another scenario starting to gain attention: call it a reverse wage-price spiral. And it may be the best bet for Powell’s coveted “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without a harmful recession. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posits the wage deceleration is due to a downshift in inflation expectations held by workers, as well as their bosses. Reduced expectations for living costs — reflecting lower gasoline prices and the anticipated impact of aggressive Fed interest-rate increases — lead to tempered wage demands. That in turn means less pressure on companies to raise prices. For the Fed, the bottom line is it may not have to force such a big downturn in the job market.