Market Reaction: 프랑스 및 스페인 물가가 생각보다 높게 발표되자 시장 참여자들은 유럽 중앙은행의 최종정책금리가 내년 2월이면 4%에 이를 것이라 단정짓게 됨.
Traders cranked up European Central Bank rate hike wagers after French and Spanish inflation figures came in unexpectedly hotter than expected in February. For the first time, money markets are fully pricing in a 4% ECB terminal rate, which is expected to be reached by February 2024. That compares to a 3.5% rate expected at the start of the year and would exceed the peak for euro-area interest rates seen more than two decades ago.
Traders cranked up European Central Bank rate hike wagers after French and Spanish inflation figures came in unexpectedly hotter than expected in February. For the first time, money markets are fully pricing in a 4% ECB terminal rate, which is expected to be reached by February 2024. That compares to a 3.5% rate expected at the start of the year and would exceed the peak for euro-area interest rates seen more than two decades ago.
Technical Story: 주가지수 선물과 거래량에 대한 기술적 분석임. 유럽 주가지수는 미국보다 상대성과 우위를 점하며 두 달간 강세를 유지하고 있고 최근 발표되는 강한 인플레이션 지표조차 투자자들이 주식에서 멀리 떠나도록 하지 못했음. 특히, 한달 간 주가지수 선물 가격은 일정한 범위 내에 움직였지만, 장 중 저점에서 일간 거래의 대부분이 발생하며 저점이 오면 매수하겠다는 긍정적 투자심리를 확인시켜주고 있음.
Nearly two months into the year, the European equity market is still running strong, with even the latest warning about sticky inflation failing to throw investors off their stride for long. Stocks are faring particularly well against their US peers, leaving bears waiting for a catalyst that could derail the rally. In February, traders showed an appetite for European equities, with persistent dip buying in Euro Stoxx 50 futures suggesting positive sentiment. While the index has been relatively range bound, “it remains in an uptrend, so we have to respect that for now in the absence of other signals,” says LCM technical analyst Ben Kelly.
Nearly two months into the year, the European equity market is still running strong, with even the latest warning about sticky inflation failing to throw investors off their stride for long. Stocks are faring particularly well against their US peers, leaving bears waiting for a catalyst that could derail the rally. In February, traders showed an appetite for European equities, with persistent dip buying in Euro Stoxx 50 futures suggesting positive sentiment. While the index has been relatively range bound, “it remains in an uptrend, so we have to respect that for now in the absence of other signals,” says LCM technical analyst Ben Kelly.
Technical Story: 중국의 제조업 지표가 2012년 4월 이후 최고치를 기록하고, 비제조업 지표도 상향 개선되며 아시아 증시와 미국 야간 선물 지수를 상승 반전 시켰음. 최근 지속 하향 추세에 있던 항셍 지수가 3% 상승 중인데, 볼린저밴드 하단과 피보나치 되돌림 두번째인 38.2% 수준에서 지지를 받고 반등한 모습임.
Chinese stocks rallied while other Asian markets erased declines after factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy improved more than analysts forecast. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, the highest reading since April 2012. A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the services and construction sectors improved to 56.3. The Hang Seng China stock gauge rallied more than 3% as the gauge of China’s manufacturing activity climbed to the highest level in more than a decade. An Asian equity benchmark changed course and rose by the most in a month, while futures for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 all pared losses.
Chinese stocks rallied while other Asian markets erased declines after factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy improved more than analysts forecast. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, the highest reading since April 2012. A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the services and construction sectors improved to 56.3. The Hang Seng China stock gauge rallied more than 3% as the gauge of China’s manufacturing activity climbed to the highest level in more than a decade. An Asian equity benchmark changed course and rose by the most in a month, while futures for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 all pared losses.
Docent: 우리가 경제를 판단할 때 바라보는 지표는 두 가지 속성에 근거함. 설문에 의한 지표와 실제 경제 활동에 의한 지표로, 이를 흔히 소프트 데이터와 하드 데이터라 부르며, 이에 대한 골드만삭스 보고서를 활용한 도슨트임. 최근 미국 경제의 흥미로운 특징 중 하나가 실제 경제에 근거한 지표와 설문에 의존하는 지표가 말하는 것이 크게 다르다는 것임. 실물 지표는 경기침체가 멀리 있다고 말하는 반면, 설문 지표는 경기를 암울하게 보고 있기 때문임. 이 둘 간의 차이를 역사적으로 살펴보면, 바이러스 대확산 시기를 제외하고 이처럼 큰 폭의 괴리를 보이는게 이례적이란 사실을 알 수 있으며, 특히나 실물 지표가 긍정일 때 설문 지표는 부정인 경우(Hard data(+), Soft data(-))가 얼마나 드문지도 알 수 있음. 두 지표 간 차이는 지난 1월 역사적 최고치를 기록했고, 2월에도 여전히 높은 수준의 실물이 설문보다 긍정적인 상태를 유지했음. 골드만삭스의 경우 현재 국면에서 회사채 투자자는 설문에 의한 지표를 덜 중요시하고 실물에 의한 데이터에 더욱 의존해야 한다고 함. 회사채 시장의 성과를 볼 경우 경기순환적인 곳이 경기방어적인 곳보다 우수한 성과를 거두었으며, 이는 실물 지표의 긍정적 데이터에 동의하고 있다는 것을 보여주는 것이기 때문임. 그렇다면, 우리는 설문에 의한 지표를 계속 무시해도 될까? 그렇지는 않음. 만일 신용시장이 경기침체 위험을 저평가 중이라면 이 데이터를 주시해야 할 것임. 또한 실물 데이터가 현재 상태를 잘 보여주는 반면, 설문 데이터는 경제 방향을 예측하는데 도움이 될만큼 신속하고 많은 정보를 제공하기 때문에 무시할 순 없음.
A peculiar feature in recent US economic data has been the divergent message between the hard and soft data. The hard data have continued to show signs that a recession is very much avoidable, while the soft data are painting a more dismal outlook. Exhibit 1 shows just how unusual this divergence is, from a historical standpoint, by plotting the difference between GS Hard and Soft CAIs (Current Activity Indicators) over the past thirty years, excluding the years in which COVID-19 drove data anomalies. Not only is the magnitude of the difference between these two series still hovering at a very elevated level in February, after hitting a record high in January, but this exhibit also highlights just how infrequently the Hard CAI signals growth (a positive value) at the same time as the Soft CAI signals contraction (a negative value). Our US Economists have noted several reasons why the importance of the soft data should be downplayed at the current juncture, maintaining their modal “no recession” forecast and putting more weight on the quantitative (hard) vs. qualitative (soft) data. Exhibit 2 shows, so far at least, that credit markets agree with this view as USD HY cyclical sectors (excluding Energy) have been outperforming their defensive counterparts (excluding Pharmaceuticals). That said, should investors be putting more weight on the hard or soft data to formulate their views on future cyclicals vs. defensives performance? We examine three possibilities: 1. Credit is underpricing recession risks and investors should take heed of the Soft CAI, 2. The Hard CAI is presenting a more accurate denoscription of the state of the economy and credit is reflecting that by not rebuilding a recession risk-premium, or 3. Credit markets incorporate information quickly enough such that the CAIs are of limited use as a forecasting tool. A corollary of this last option is that year-to-date cyclical outperformance implies the signal from the Hard CAI is a more accurate denoscription of the current economy.
A peculiar feature in recent US economic data has been the divergent message between the hard and soft data. The hard data have continued to show signs that a recession is very much avoidable, while the soft data are painting a more dismal outlook. Exhibit 1 shows just how unusual this divergence is, from a historical standpoint, by plotting the difference between GS Hard and Soft CAIs (Current Activity Indicators) over the past thirty years, excluding the years in which COVID-19 drove data anomalies. Not only is the magnitude of the difference between these two series still hovering at a very elevated level in February, after hitting a record high in January, but this exhibit also highlights just how infrequently the Hard CAI signals growth (a positive value) at the same time as the Soft CAI signals contraction (a negative value). Our US Economists have noted several reasons why the importance of the soft data should be downplayed at the current juncture, maintaining their modal “no recession” forecast and putting more weight on the quantitative (hard) vs. qualitative (soft) data. Exhibit 2 shows, so far at least, that credit markets agree with this view as USD HY cyclical sectors (excluding Energy) have been outperforming their defensive counterparts (excluding Pharmaceuticals). That said, should investors be putting more weight on the hard or soft data to formulate their views on future cyclicals vs. defensives performance? We examine three possibilities: 1. Credit is underpricing recession risks and investors should take heed of the Soft CAI, 2. The Hard CAI is presenting a more accurate denoscription of the state of the economy and credit is reflecting that by not rebuilding a recession risk-premium, or 3. Credit markets incorporate information quickly enough such that the CAIs are of limited use as a forecasting tool. A corollary of this last option is that year-to-date cyclical outperformance implies the signal from the Hard CAI is a more accurate denoscription of the current economy.
• In Case You Missed It (Feb. 2023)
- 이유없는 반항의 치킨게임 (02/03)
- 중국의 경제는 지속 긍정적일 것 (02/08)
- 치킨게임에서 투자자가 항복 (02/10)
- 지수 상승률 0%, 하지만 액티브 매니저에겐 좋은 주식 선별 기회 (02/11)
- 국채 수익률 곡선 역전이 회복되면 증시도 긍정적 (02/16)
- 만기 24시간 미만 옵션에 대해 (02/16)
- 중국은 이제 경제 회복 국면에 진입할 것 (02/20)
- 이유없는 반항의 치킨게임 (02/03)
- 중국의 경제는 지속 긍정적일 것 (02/08)
- 치킨게임에서 투자자가 항복 (02/10)
- 지수 상승률 0%, 하지만 액티브 매니저에겐 좋은 주식 선별 기회 (02/11)
- 국채 수익률 곡선 역전이 회복되면 증시도 긍정적 (02/16)
- 만기 24시간 미만 옵션에 대해 (02/16)
- 중국은 이제 경제 회복 국면에 진입할 것 (02/20)
Docent: 인플레이션을 완전히 진압하기 위해 중앙은행은 임금 상승이 촉발하는 연쇄 효과를 두려워 하고 있었고, 결국 고용시장을 무너지게 만들어야 한다는 결론에 이르기도 했음. 그러나 최근 완전고용에 가까워짐에도 불구하고 임금 상승은 둔화되고 있음. 이에 대한 도슨트임.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues confront a “legitimate head scratcher” as they probe how high to raise interest rates in the coming months: Why is wage growth slowing if the jobs market is so tight?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues confront a “legitimate head scratcher” as they probe how high to raise interest rates in the coming months: Why is wage growth slowing if the jobs market is so tight?
1) 미국의 실업률이 50년래 최저치로 하락하면서 노동자들이 사업자에게 요구할 수 있는 힘이 더 강해졌다고 판단됨. 그럼에도 불구하고 임금 및 복리후생과 관련한 지표는 되려 악화되고 있음.
The paradox: the US unemployment rate has tumbled to the lowest in more than half a century — seemingly giving workers all the more power to demand higher pay. But a key measure of wages and benefits is decelerating. It results in what White House economist Jared Bernstein calls a real “head scratcher.”
The paradox: the US unemployment rate has tumbled to the lowest in more than half a century — seemingly giving workers all the more power to demand higher pay. But a key measure of wages and benefits is decelerating. It results in what White House economist Jared Bernstein calls a real “head scratcher.”
2) 공급망 병목현상이 풀리고 경제활동이 정상화 되면서 중앙은행은 인플레이션의 가장 고위험 분야를 임금(의료, 식당 등 서비스 산업)이라 지목했고, 많은 분석가들인 고용에 심각한 타격을 줘야만 임금 압력을 완화시킬 수 있을 것이라 했음. 그럼에도 불구, 최근 관심이 높아지는 가설은 임금의 역전인데, 이는 중앙은행이 원하는 경기침체 없는 인플레이션에 희망을 주는 개념임. 무디스의 분석가는 이런 높은 고용 수요에도 불구 낮은 임금 상승률 현상은 인플레이션 기대 하락에 기인한 것으로 분석함. 이로 인해 기업은 임금을 더 높여야 한다는 부담을 덜고 있음.
But there’s another scenario starting to gain attention: call it a reverse wage-price spiral. And it may be the best bet for Powell’s coveted “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without a harmful recession. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posits the wage deceleration is due to a downshift in inflation expectations held by workers, as well as their bosses. Reduced expectations for living costs — reflecting lower gasoline prices and the anticipated impact of aggressive Fed interest-rate increases — lead to tempered wage demands. That in turn means less pressure on companies to raise prices. For the Fed, the bottom line is it may not have to force such a big downturn in the job market.
But there’s another scenario starting to gain attention: call it a reverse wage-price spiral. And it may be the best bet for Powell’s coveted “soft landing,” where inflation comes down without a harmful recession. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posits the wage deceleration is due to a downshift in inflation expectations held by workers, as well as their bosses. Reduced expectations for living costs — reflecting lower gasoline prices and the anticipated impact of aggressive Fed interest-rate increases — lead to tempered wage demands. That in turn means less pressure on companies to raise prices. For the Fed, the bottom line is it may not have to force such a big downturn in the job market.
3) 작년 이런 높은 고용 수요에도 불구 임금은 크게 상승하지 않는 개념에 대해 소개 된 바 있지만, 대중적으로 이 개념이 수용되지는 않았음. 오히려 임금 상승은 지속적일 것으로 대다수 생각함. 제이피모건 분석가 또한 결국 경기침체를 필요로 한다고 주장했지만, 중앙은행이 주요하게 살피는 고용 지표는 3개 분기에 연속해서 상승폭이 크지 않았고, 시간당 임금도 지난 3월 5.9% 증가에서 올해 1월 4.4% 증가로 낮아졌음. 근로자들은 지난 해 전쟁과 병목현상으로 인한 물가 상승에 임금을 높일 것으로 대응했지만, 가격 상승 압력이 둔화 된 지금은 임금상승에 대한 기대를 낮추고 있기 때문임.
“A slowdown in wage growth without a significant increase in the unemployment rate puts us one step closer to a soft landing,” said Sinem Buber, lead economist at ZipRecruiter, an online job-matching site that worked with over 40 million applicants last year. The reverse wage-price spiral isn’t universally endorsed. Former chief White House economist Jason Furman has put forth an alternative hypothesis: wage-price persistence. “A recession will eventually be necessary” to get inflation back to the Fed’s comfort zone, said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Fed’s favorite measure of labor expenses, the employment cost index, has shown three straight quarters of smaller advances. A narrower measure — average hourly earnings of employees — has also slowed, with a year-on-year gain of 4.4% in January, down from 5.9% last March.
“A slowdown in wage growth without a significant increase in the unemployment rate puts us one step closer to a soft landing,” said Sinem Buber, lead economist at ZipRecruiter, an online job-matching site that worked with over 40 million applicants last year. The reverse wage-price spiral isn’t universally endorsed. Former chief White House economist Jason Furman has put forth an alternative hypothesis: wage-price persistence. “A recession will eventually be necessary” to get inflation back to the Fed’s comfort zone, said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Fed’s favorite measure of labor expenses, the employment cost index, has shown three straight quarters of smaller advances. A narrower measure — average hourly earnings of employees — has also slowed, with a year-on-year gain of 4.4% in January, down from 5.9% last March.
4) 물론, 이런 의견에 반대하는 이도 많은데, 거의 완전고용에 근접했지만 이를 초과하지 않은 노동시장 과열이라는 주장과 반대로 여전히 고용주가 직원을 유지하고 새로 채용하기 위해 임금을 인상하면서 중앙은행이 원하는 2%대의 인플레이션과 완전고용이 양립할 수 있는 수준을 넘어설 것이라는 주장임. 결국 핵심은 서비스 부문인데, 해당 부문이 임금 상승에 대한 열쇠를 쥐고 있기 때문임. 향후 우리는 어떤 이의 주장이 맞을지 지속 관찰해야 할 것임.
Zandi, who sees better-than-even odds the US will avoid a recession, doesn’t dispute the jobs market is tight. He just doesn’t think it’s as taut as some economists do. The share of the prime-age working population that’s employed is 80%, consistent with full employment but not beyond it, he said. That still leaves wages growing well above levels that are compatible with the Fed’s 2% inflation target as employers raise pay to retain and hire workers in a tight jobs market, Summers, who is a paid contributor to Bloomberg Television, and Domash wrote. “The lion’s share of today’s inflationary pressures are arising from the services sectors, and this could create challenges for the central banks,” Sheets, a former Fed official, wrote.
Zandi, who sees better-than-even odds the US will avoid a recession, doesn’t dispute the jobs market is tight. He just doesn’t think it’s as taut as some economists do. The share of the prime-age working population that’s employed is 80%, consistent with full employment but not beyond it, he said. That still leaves wages growing well above levels that are compatible with the Fed’s 2% inflation target as employers raise pay to retain and hire workers in a tight jobs market, Summers, who is a paid contributor to Bloomberg Television, and Domash wrote. “The lion’s share of today’s inflationary pressures are arising from the services sectors, and this could create challenges for the central banks,” Sheets, a former Fed official, wrote.
Bottom-line: 최근 하락세를 보인 주가에도 불구, 이것이 투자자들로 하여금 불안을 느껴 하방위험을 방어하는데 돈을 쓰도록 만들진 못하고 있음. 등가격과 외과격 풋옵션 간 프리미엄을 비교해 산출하는 지수가 작년 11월 초 이후 처음으로 연속 하락하고 있음. 작년 11월은 S&P 500 지수가 바닥을 치고 11% 상승을 했었음. 물론, 이런 사실과 별개로 통화정책회의를 3주 앞두고 이번 주 발표되는 지표들을 가격이 얼마나 반영하고 있는지, 그것이 시장을 이끌게 될 가장 핵심적 질문이 될 것임.
The recent drop in the S&P 500 has failed to unnerve investors enough to seek downside protection, at least yet. The absence of fear is showing in the recent performance of the Nations SkewDex gauge - it compares the cost of at-the-money options relative to the cost of out-of-the-money put options aimed at measuring the amount of risk market participates are willing to bear - which has fallen for the seventh straight day, a downdraft that was last seen at the start of November. Soon enough, on Nov. 3, the SPY made a bottom and rallied over 11% before a decline took hold. Economic data coming through for the rest of this week has the potential to materially swing short-term investor sentiment. ISM manufacturing, jobless claims and PMI data will be closely watched as ever while the next FOMC meeting is three weeks away. That begets the question -- how much of what is expected is already discounted? If most of it already is, what’s likely to embolden the tactical stock bear further? The answer to that question remains key.
The recent drop in the S&P 500 has failed to unnerve investors enough to seek downside protection, at least yet. The absence of fear is showing in the recent performance of the Nations SkewDex gauge - it compares the cost of at-the-money options relative to the cost of out-of-the-money put options aimed at measuring the amount of risk market participates are willing to bear - which has fallen for the seventh straight day, a downdraft that was last seen at the start of November. Soon enough, on Nov. 3, the SPY made a bottom and rallied over 11% before a decline took hold. Economic data coming through for the rest of this week has the potential to materially swing short-term investor sentiment. ISM manufacturing, jobless claims and PMI data will be closely watched as ever while the next FOMC meeting is three weeks away. That begets the question -- how much of what is expected is already discounted? If most of it already is, what’s likely to embolden the tactical stock bear further? The answer to that question remains key.
Bottom-line: 지난 세월 동안 미국 국채금리는 중앙은행의 최종정책금리에 근접하거나 이를 상회하곤 했음. 만일 5%를 훌쩍 넘는 최종정책금리가 우리 앞에 있다면, 채권 투자자들에 보다 힘든 시기가 남았다는 말임. 지난 수십년 동안 중앙은행의 통화정책 긴축 기간 이런 현상이 발생했는데, 특히 1980년대 이후 더욱 잦아졌다는 것을 알 수 있음. 때문에 경제가 지속해서 침체를 피할 경우, 단기 및 장기 채권의 금리가 더욱 높아질 수 밖에 없다는 것임.
Past precedents show Treasury yields have often spiked close to or above the Fed’s terminal rate, suggesting it could get worse before it gets better for bond holders if officials deliver on over 5% interest rates. Overlaying effective rates on Treasury yields shows that it’s been common that both two and 10-year yields have risen at or above the Fed’s effective interest rate in past tightening cycles in recent decades. This was more frequently the case after the 1980s. Paul Volcker’s shocking interest-rate hikes of that period have seen yields come close but not exceed the Fed’s rate as two back-to-back recessions roiled markets, driving investors into the safety of bonds. Based on these observations, one could make the case that both short and long-dated yields could climb a lot higher from current levels if the economy continues to avert a recession. My colleague Ven Ram makes a more articulate argument here. Economists are still seeing 60% odds of one arriving in 2023 (from 65% previously) but have been recently revising their estimates higher for 2Q and 3Q 2023 when the downturn is expected to arrive.
Past precedents show Treasury yields have often spiked close to or above the Fed’s terminal rate, suggesting it could get worse before it gets better for bond holders if officials deliver on over 5% interest rates. Overlaying effective rates on Treasury yields shows that it’s been common that both two and 10-year yields have risen at or above the Fed’s effective interest rate in past tightening cycles in recent decades. This was more frequently the case after the 1980s. Paul Volcker’s shocking interest-rate hikes of that period have seen yields come close but not exceed the Fed’s rate as two back-to-back recessions roiled markets, driving investors into the safety of bonds. Based on these observations, one could make the case that both short and long-dated yields could climb a lot higher from current levels if the economy continues to avert a recession. My colleague Ven Ram makes a more articulate argument here. Economists are still seeing 60% odds of one arriving in 2023 (from 65% previously) but have been recently revising their estimates higher for 2Q and 3Q 2023 when the downturn is expected to arrive.