Point: 신흥국 시장의 상대성과 우위는 주로 외부 거시적 요인에 의하며(Streaks are more "global macro" than domestic), 주로 광범위한 성장률 개선에 기인함. 이러한 성과 우위의 시작에는 밸류에이션이 낮은 상태에 있으며, 해당 국가에 대한 투자 비중도 매우 낮은 상태에 있을 때임. 이와 동시에 다른 국가 대비 더 나은 경제성장률과 외국인 직접 투자의 증가가 동반 될 때 강화 됨. 다만, 4년 이상 이러한 상대성과 우위를 점하는 경우는 관측 기간 25년 중 7년에 불과한데, 이 정도 기간이 지나면 다른 신흥국에서 더 나은 기회가 발생한다는 것을 뜻함.
US tech companies reported mixed results overnight. A miss for Apple’s third-quarter iPhone revenue cast a pall that will likely be felt by the company’s Asia suppliers. On the upside, Amazon delivered a beat that is driving its shares higher.
Docent: 주식 시장의 수익률을 거시적 영향에 의한 것과 기업 개별 특성에 의한 것으로 구분했을 때에 대한 내용임. 골드만삭스는 이 두 가지 중 어느 쪽이 수익률에 더 영향을 주는지를 구분하고 있는데, 이 구분 방법 중 핵심인 두 가지는 i) 주식들 간의 수익률 상관관계, ii) 주식 수익 변동의 진폭임. 거시적 변수가 주식시장에 큰 영향을 줄 때면, 지수의 구성 기업들이 각기 다른 사업을 영위하고, 그 과거와 전망이 상이함에도 불구하고 유사한 수익률 형태를 보임(수익률 상관관계가 높음). 반면에 거시적 변수가 영향을 덜 미칠 때는 투자자들이 서로 성격이 다른 주식에 대해 별개의 투자 판단을 올바르게 내리는 이성을 지니기 때문에 수익률 상관관계가 낮아지는 경향이 있음. 골드만삭스의 핵심적인 분석은 겉으로 보기에는 올해 굉장한 거시적 변수들이 시장에 영향을 미친 것 같지만, 실제 위 기준에 의하면 주식 수익률을 결정하는 거시적 영향이 크게 줄어들었고, 기업 개별 특성(미시적 영향)에 의한 영향력이 작년 41%에서 올해 71%까지 큰 폭으로 높아졌다는 것임. 덧붙여, 종목을 지수와 다르게 선택하여(stock picking) 초과수익을 추구하는 투자자 입장에서 노력 대비 보상이 크려면 주식의 수익률 변동성이 커야 하는데(high return dispersion), 최근 그 변동성 또한 커질 가능성이 있다는 것임. 정리하자면, 주식시장에서 초과수익을 추구하는 투자자에게는 주식들이 각기 다른 움직임을 보이는 동시에 수익률 변동폭도 큰 시장이 좋은 기회를 제공하는데, 올해가 그렇다는 것임.
The share of the typical S&P 500 stock’s return explained by micro factors has risen sharply to 71% from 41% a year ago. Macro factors account for the balance. Falling stock correlation has outweighed receding volatility and return dispersion has risen near the long-term average. Options pricing reflects expectations for high return dispersion in the near term. A micro-driven market typically means more opportunity for stock pickers to capture alpha. The best stock picking opportunities arise in sectors where returns are driven by micro factors and the typical company in the sector carries a high level of firm-specific risk.
The share of the typical S&P 500 stock’s return explained by micro factors has risen sharply to 71% from 41% a year ago. Macro factors account for the balance. Falling stock correlation has outweighed receding volatility and return dispersion has risen near the long-term average. Options pricing reflects expectations for high return dispersion in the near term. A micro-driven market typically means more opportunity for stock pickers to capture alpha. The best stock picking opportunities arise in sectors where returns are driven by micro factors and the typical company in the sector carries a high level of firm-specific risk.
Bottom-line: Half the Pain.
A US plan to restrict investment into China will probably apply only to Chinese firms that get at least half their revenue from sectors such as quantum computing and AI, people familiar said. This would allow US PE and VC firms to put money into conglomerates that may have AI divisions but get most of their sales elsewhere.
A US plan to restrict investment into China will probably apply only to Chinese firms that get at least half their revenue from sectors such as quantum computing and AI, people familiar said. This would allow US PE and VC firms to put money into conglomerates that may have AI divisions but get most of their sales elsewhere.
China’s central bank unexpectedly reduced a key interest rate by the most since 2020 to bolster an economy that’s facing fresh risks from a worsening property slump and weak consumer spending.
The Chinese central bank sold 299b yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase agreements at 1.8%, according to a statement on PBOC website.
Bottom-line: 아직 물가 목표에 완전히 도달하지 못해 해야 할 일이 많다는 것을 재차 강조함.
“Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in the text of a speech Friday at the US central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
“Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in the text of a speech Friday at the US central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
공개 된 연설문을 보자면 긴축을 필요할 경우 더 해야 한다는 의지를 보이고 있으나, 언제 해야 한다는 확정은 없음. 이는 이미 시장 가격에 반영 된 사항임(that has already been priced into the market.). 게다가 중립금리(R*)에 대해 그는 명확한 결론을 아직 내리지 못한 것으로 보임. 연설문의 중요 부분은 다음과 같음.
*POWELL: FED PREPARED TO RAISE RATES FURTHER IF APPROPRIATE
*POWELL: PERSISTENT ABOVE-TREND GROWTH COULD WARRANT TIGHTENING
*POWELL: RESTRICTIVE POLICY UNTIL INFLATION SUSTAINABLY SLOWING
*POWELL: 2% INFLATION NEEDS BELOW-TREND GROWTH, LABOR SOFTENING
*POWELL: ATTENTIVE TO SIGNS ECONOMY NOT COOLING AS EXPECTED
*POWELL: FED PREPARED TO RAISE RATES FURTHER IF APPROPRIATE
*POWELL: PERSISTENT ABOVE-TREND GROWTH COULD WARRANT TIGHTENING
*POWELL: RESTRICTIVE POLICY UNTIL INFLATION SUSTAINABLY SLOWING
*POWELL: 2% INFLATION NEEDS BELOW-TREND GROWTH, LABOR SOFTENING
*POWELL: ATTENTIVE TO SIGNS ECONOMY NOT COOLING AS EXPECTED
내용을 보자면 현재의 높은 금리를 더 오래 유지하겠다는 동시에 언젠가 또 한 번의 금리인상이 있다고 말하는 바지만(That’s all an endorsement of higher-for-longer, as well as holding out the threat of another hike.), 최근 몇 주간 상승해 온 채권 금리를 볼 때 이 또한 놀랄만한 일이 아님(there doesn’t appear to be much marginal surprise there.).
*POWELL: MAY STILL BE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER DRAG FROM PAST HIKES
*POWELL: REAL RATES POSITIVE, WELL ABOVE MOST NEUTRAL ESTIMATES
*POWELL: ‘WE CANNOT IDENTIFY WITH CERTAINTY’ THE NEUTRAL RATE
*POWELL: MAY STILL BE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER DRAG FROM PAST HIKES
*POWELL: REAL RATES POSITIVE, WELL ABOVE MOST NEUTRAL ESTIMATES
*POWELL: ‘WE CANNOT IDENTIFY WITH CERTAINTY’ THE NEUTRAL RATE
China's latest revival plans. Beijing halved the stamp duty on stock trades and pledged to slow the pace of IPOs in an effort to revive confidence. The CSRC said restrictions will also be set on the frequency and size of refinancing for some firms, with property developers exempted from the rule. Meanwhile, Hong Kong plans a task force to boost liquidity. Chinese industrial profits weakened.
Bottom-line: 중국은 세계에서 최악의 성과를 보인 주식시장이란 오명을 벗어나고자 갖은 부양책과 세제 혜택을 썼음. 월요일 중국 지수는 이런 노력에 5.5% 상승해 시작했지만, 장 종료 시점에 1.2%의 상승만 남기고 모두 반납함. 기록적인 외국인 투자자 유출 또한 지속되며, 중국에는 이보다 더 강력한 바주카포 같은 정책이 필요함을 시사함.
Markets Show China Needs a Stimulus ‘Bazooka’ to Woo Investors. Chinese stocks started Monday by surging after authorities took a raft of steps to bring investors back to one of the world’s worst-performing equity markets. But most of the gains were gone by the end of the session, with foreign funds extending what’s set to be a record outflow this month. Opening with a 5.5% pop in response to weekend measures that included the first cut in stamp duty since 2008 as well as curbs on share sales by major stakeholders, the CSI 300 Index of onshore Chinese stocks finished just 1.2% higher.
Markets Show China Needs a Stimulus ‘Bazooka’ to Woo Investors. Chinese stocks started Monday by surging after authorities took a raft of steps to bring investors back to one of the world’s worst-performing equity markets. But most of the gains were gone by the end of the session, with foreign funds extending what’s set to be a record outflow this month. Opening with a 5.5% pop in response to weekend measures that included the first cut in stamp duty since 2008 as well as curbs on share sales by major stakeholders, the CSI 300 Index of onshore Chinese stocks finished just 1.2% higher.
US stocks rose, posting the first back-to-back gains this month, with the S&P 500 staying above the key 4,400 level.
Bottom-line: 중국의 성장위기가 높아짐에 따라 금융위기 이후 처음으로 막대한 자금 규모의 주택자금대출에 대한 금리인하를 앞두고 있음.
China is poised to cut interest rates on trillions of yuan of outstanding home mortgages for the first time since the global financial crisis, as policymakers dig deeper into their toolkit to shore up growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
China is poised to cut interest rates on trillions of yuan of outstanding home mortgages for the first time since the global financial crisis, as policymakers dig deeper into their toolkit to shore up growth in the world’s second-largest economy.