— 🇮🇷 For the record:
This is a satellite photo of an Iranian ballistic missile storage / production facility. There are HUNDREDS of such warehouses and production facilities in Iran.
Practically every cent of Iran's defense budget has been spent on the mass production of ballistic missiles since the early 2000's.
The situation has now reached a point where the problem is not production capacity, but storage capacity. There are literally too many missiles to store. One commander famously said: 'We produce them like cigars'. Let this be clear.
@Middle_East_Spectator
This is a satellite photo of an Iranian ballistic missile storage / production facility. There are HUNDREDS of such warehouses and production facilities in Iran.
Practically every cent of Iran's defense budget has been spent on the mass production of ballistic missiles since the early 2000's.
The situation has now reached a point where the problem is not production capacity, but storage capacity. There are literally too many missiles to store. One commander famously said: 'We produce them like cigars'. Let this be clear.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (FRANCISCVS)
🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Netzarim Corridor update:
The IDF have begun the construction of a new base in Gaza, located opposite the planned American built pier. I've marked it as "2" in the image.
🔶️ The start of the clearing can be seen in planet satellite imagery shared by Jake Godin today. It was confirmed by the IDF that the 2 recently remobilized reserve brigades will replace Nahal Brigade in the Corridor, 1 of them will be stationed here to guard the pier.
🔶️ The new brigades (2nd Reserve Infantry Brigade Carmeli and 679th Reserve Armored Brigade) will likely enter the Netzarim Corridor once the ongoing operation in Central Gaza is completed. After that, Nahal and 401st Brigade (the 2 brigades currently in Gaza) will rest for Rafah.
🔶️ Central Gaza Operation Update:
The IDF have advanced a few more houses, I count 33.
🔶️ In planet imagery you can see that the majority of activity is focused on Western Al-Mughraqa, which has been 60% demolished to give additional security to the Netzarim Corridor.
⚡️ Rafah Preparation Timeline:
1. 98th Division withdraws and rests (completed)
2. Reserves are remobilized to take over the defense of the Netzarim Corridor (completed)
3. Gaza Division starts raids on uncleared pockets in North and Central Gaza (ongoing)
Next steps:
4. Evacuation of Rafah is started
5. 162nd Division withdraws and rests, is replaced with remobilized reserves
6. 99th Division is remobilized
7. IDF starts invasion of Rafah, likely before the end of May
(Oh, and there will be extensive air operations before the invasion starts)
📎 Gaza war unit tracking
The IDF have begun the construction of a new base in Gaza, located opposite the planned American built pier. I've marked it as "2" in the image.
🔶️ The start of the clearing can be seen in planet satellite imagery shared by Jake Godin today. It was confirmed by the IDF that the 2 recently remobilized reserve brigades will replace Nahal Brigade in the Corridor, 1 of them will be stationed here to guard the pier.
🔶️ The new brigades (2nd Reserve Infantry Brigade Carmeli and 679th Reserve Armored Brigade) will likely enter the Netzarim Corridor once the ongoing operation in Central Gaza is completed. After that, Nahal and 401st Brigade (the 2 brigades currently in Gaza) will rest for Rafah.
🔶️ Central Gaza Operation Update:
The IDF have advanced a few more houses, I count 33.
🔶️ In planet imagery you can see that the majority of activity is focused on Western Al-Mughraqa, which has been 60% demolished to give additional security to the Netzarim Corridor.
⚡️ Rafah Preparation Timeline:
1. 98th Division withdraws and rests (completed)
2. Reserves are remobilized to take over the defense of the Netzarim Corridor (completed)
3. Gaza Division starts raids on uncleared pockets in North and Central Gaza (ongoing)
Next steps:
4. Evacuation of Rafah is started
5. 162nd Division withdraws and rests, is replaced with remobilized reserves
6. 99th Division is remobilized
7. IDF starts invasion of Rafah, likely before the end of May
(Oh, and there will be extensive air operations before the invasion starts)
📎 Gaza war unit tracking
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— 🇮🇱/🇮🇷 BREAKING: 'If Israel continues threatening Iran, we will consider building atomic weapons' – IRGC Commander in charge of the Protection of Nuclear Sites
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Should Iran accelerate its nuclear program and actively seek nuclear weapons?
Anonymous Poll
71%
Yes, there must be a nuclear deterrent.
16%
No, it will further isolate Iran from the international community.
14%
I don't believe Iran has the capacity to become a nuclear weapons state in the short term.
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— 🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NOW: Israel's Foreign Minister in the UN Security Council says that Iran's Foreign Minister shouldn't be there, because Iran orchestrated October 7; upon hearing this, Iran's Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian smiles, and drinks a sip of tea
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: American media, including CNN and Fox News, report that Israel has carried out a 'limited strike' inside Iran
Tonight, 3 small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, were shot down by air defenses above Isfahan, according to preliminary information.
No airstrike or explosion caused by any foreign aerial threat has been reported, according to IRNA, and missile defenses have not been activated.
All military and security installations in Isfahan province remain secure, including the Natanz nuclear reactor.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Tonight, 3 small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, were shot down by air defenses above Isfahan, according to preliminary information.
No airstrike or explosion caused by any foreign aerial threat has been reported, according to IRNA, and missile defenses have not been activated.
All military and security installations in Isfahan province remain secure, including the Natanz nuclear reactor.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: American media, including CNN and Fox News, report that Israel has carried out a 'limited strike' inside Iran Tonight, 3 small drones, possibly launched from inside Iran, were shot down by air defenses above Isfahan, according to preliminary…
— So, Israel's 'retaliation' consisted of launching 3 explosive-laden quadcopters from inside Iran, it seems for now.
Or in the best case scenario, several small 'harpy' drones launched from Israel.
Or in the best case scenario, several small 'harpy' drones launched from Israel.
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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: All flights in Iran have resumed and the situation is back to normal
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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So far, the IDF has not even officially claimed an attack inside Iran, out of fear for retaliation.
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— 🇮🇷 Commander in Chief of Iran's Army: 'Air defense systems were activated in Esfahan tonight and shot down a suspicious aerial object, which caused no damage'
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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— 🇮🇱/🇮🇶 NEW: The booster of an air-launched missile, likely Israeli in origin, was found in Iraq
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 At this point, there are three main theories that I can think of:
1. Israel launched a small-scale quadcopter attack in Esfahan, from within Iranian territory, all of which were intercepted.
2. Israel did launch a small number of air-launched missiles into Iran at targets in Esfahan, but were all intercepted by Iranian air defense. Due to the lack of any visual evidence of explosions, it is extremely unlikely that there were any missiles, and if there were, they must've been intercepted.
3. Israel only used quadcopters in Esfahan, but dropped a missile booster without its warhead from a fighter jet inside Iraqi territory to make it seem like they fired missiles into Iran.
@Middle_East_Spectator
1. Israel launched a small-scale quadcopter attack in Esfahan, from within Iranian territory, all of which were intercepted.
2. Israel did launch a small number of air-launched missiles into Iran at targets in Esfahan, but were all intercepted by Iranian air defense. Due to the lack of any visual evidence of explosions, it is extremely unlikely that there were any missiles, and if there were, they must've been intercepted.
3. Israel only used quadcopters in Esfahan, but dropped a missile booster without its warhead from a fighter jet inside Iraqi territory to make it seem like they fired missiles into Iran.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 ANALYSIS: The Israeli missiles that were found in Iraq
Two Israeli missiles have been found in Iraq, one in Latifiyah and one in Aziziyah. Based on their exterior resemblance, they seem to be of the Blue Sparrow or Silver Sparrow missile type.
The Sparrow is an Israeli medium-range air-launched ballistic missile, which is currently in use as a target missile in the IDF, meaning, it is used to simulate an aerial target for defense systems like the Arrow-3, and in most cases it does not carry an active payload.
Additionally, the Sparrow is a two-stage missile, meaning it consists of two parts, a booster and a warhead. The warhead detaches from the booster before entry. In two-stage missiles, the warhead does not travel much further than its detached booster, and the detached booster should be found not far away from the warhead's impact site.
However, as seen in the image above, even the closest booster that was found was located in Aziziyah, which is over 100km away from Iran. Based on where the missile booster landed, it is extremely unlikely that the warhead traveled more than a few kilometers into Iranian airspace, if it even entered at all, and if there even was an active payload.
After all this, while also keeping in mind the lack of visual evidence, it is inconceivable that even a single missile actually struck targets in Esfahan.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Two Israeli missiles have been found in Iraq, one in Latifiyah and one in Aziziyah. Based on their exterior resemblance, they seem to be of the Blue Sparrow or Silver Sparrow missile type.
The Sparrow is an Israeli medium-range air-launched ballistic missile, which is currently in use as a target missile in the IDF, meaning, it is used to simulate an aerial target for defense systems like the Arrow-3, and in most cases it does not carry an active payload.
Additionally, the Sparrow is a two-stage missile, meaning it consists of two parts, a booster and a warhead. The warhead detaches from the booster before entry. In two-stage missiles, the warhead does not travel much further than its detached booster, and the detached booster should be found not far away from the warhead's impact site.
However, as seen in the image above, even the closest booster that was found was located in Aziziyah, which is over 100km away from Iran. Based on where the missile booster landed, it is extremely unlikely that the warhead traveled more than a few kilometers into Iranian airspace, if it even entered at all, and if there even was an active payload.
After all this, while also keeping in mind the lack of visual evidence, it is inconceivable that even a single missile actually struck targets in Esfahan.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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