🇷🇺 🟣 📡 Russian airdefense is highly capable against current Ukrainian and European capabilities. -RUSI

🇪🇺 Up to 80% of NATO firepower is air-delivered.

🪖 Experienced contract soldiers manning Airdefenses have managed to adapt to every threat thrown at them by Ukraine.

🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🚀 ⚡️ 🇷🇺 Effectiveness of European/US missiles against Russian defenses:

❗️ GMLRS effectiveness 70% 2022, 30% 2023-4, 8% 2025.

🚀 HARMs largely ineffective after brief very effective window in 2022.

🚀Up to 10 ATACMS needed to destroy S-3/400.

📡 50% of Storm Shadows intercepted.

🇺🇦 🚀🚀The effectiveness of Ukrainian drones is around 10%.

⚠️ Out of 100-150 UAVs, 10 will reach their targets. Each costs $20-80k.

🛡 Against defended targets its necessary to exhaust the airdefenses in one vector with ~100 UAVs.

🛡‼️ Against hardened targets its necessary to follow the previous step with missiles or drones with larger payloads.

✍️ For both missile and drone attacks, the attacks can be many times more successful with the right combination of strike systems, good intelligence and EW.

🇺🇦🇺🇦 ⚠️ Ukrainian aircraft have to fly below 75m when less than 80km from the fronline. Nevertheless, one Ukrainian aircraft was shot down by Russian air defences at a range of 150 km while flying below 15m (luck, not skill).

🇷🇺 📉 Currently there are big shortages of Pansir SHORAD vehicles and interceptors. Russian no.1 priority is expanding its production. It has been observed it has lower hit rate than TORs systems. 🚀

⚠️ Other obsolete systems like OSA have near depleted interceptors.

🧠 🧠 (My own observation (Chimonix’s observation))
Buk-M3 is often observed with fewer than 2 interceptors from 6 it can carry.

🕯 Russians are losing less launchers than they are launching missiles in comparison to their production. Forcing more launchers to share the same amout of missiles. If Russia can keep up the production of interceptors.

🇷🇺🛠 Production of high-end radars for systems such as the S-400 is sufficient to replenish the losses but not for expanding their inventory, forcing Russia to keep the same amount of batteries in the field despite having a surplus of launchers.

🚀🔥 Every interceptor is being expended faster than produced.
Except Long range 40N6 and 48N6 interceptors for S400 which are being very sparingly launched.

🇷🇺 Russian doctrine was to launch an excessive amount (up to 6) of interceptors at one target. This has now changed as they learned and interceptors became more scarce

❗️ Now Russia is still regularly shooting down or attempting to shoot down every missile, drone larger than a mavic, bomb, rocket and even some long range artillery shells without using as many interceptors per target as they previously did

🇮🇱⚡️

Israeli army's radio: The operations division of the Israeli army warned Israeli soldiers living abroad not to reveal their military identities, fearing they might be attacked.

🇮🇱⚡️🇵🇸

Levet 4 ceramic plate worn by an IDF soldier in Gaza managed to stop a "12.7×108mm" anti material round.

The soldier survived the attack and broke a few ribs in the process.