Regarding concerns this invasion may have for the Homefront, the nationstate of Guyana is largely influenced by the controlling interests of ExxonMobil, due to the extremely oil-rich nature of the region but especially since the discovery of extensive petroleum fields in 2015. ExxonMobil produces a total of roughly 600,000+ BPD from the nation of Guyana (including extensive offshore production facilities). As a reminder for perspective, OPEC+ recently announced a voluntary production cut of 1 million BPD (on top of the 1 million BPD cut already in place). The seriousness of this situation could influence the global oil markets in ways not previously anticipated, as Venezuelan military operations raise the stakes of an already tumultuous oil market. History confirms that petroleum wars tend to result in Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) at some point, the gravity of which is usually ignored by a populace in the days leading up to a regional conflagration. The palpable irony of a large military power potentially invading their much smaller oil-rich neighbor due to historical territory claims may ring hollow for much of the American people, but unstable/high gas prices might result in more direct consequences being felt here at home. Though the atmospherics in the region fail to capture the gravity of the situation on the ground, right now it is too early to determine how far Venezuela will go, and how other power-players in the region will respond to these recent developments.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 1830Z December 7, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183007Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173007Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: U.S. BEGINS INVOLVEMENT IN VENEZUELA/GUYANA DISPUTE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: UN Secretary-General António Guterres invokes Article 99 of the United Nations Charter regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. AC: Invoking Article 99 is a rarely utilized (and largely symbolic) gesture intended to raise awareness on a particular issue. In effect, this action mostly schedules a meeting to discuss the Gaza issue. This move is probably intended to keep the spotlight on the exceptionally desperate humanitarian crisis that is worsening within Gaza.
South America: Yesterday a Guyanese military helicopter crashed due to possible bad weather in the Esequibo near the Venezuelan border. Most of the personnel on board were high ranking military officers. Due to the restrictive terrain, rescue crews have not yet accessed the crash site. However, signs of life have reportedly been observed from the air. US SOUTHCOM has announced they will be conducting joint military exercises within Guyana’s airspace. AC: The “joint” nature of these exercises is probably overstated as Guyana has no attack aircraft whatsoever.
-Analyst Comments-
The US military flights within Esequibo are probably intended to deter Venezuelan aggression in the region, as well as to quietly serve as intelligence collection opportunities. However, the concept of deterrence assumes that the adversarial force knows and understands the consequences of such action. Right now, the chances are high for a random soldier in the jungle to fire off a MANPAD at any aircraft they don’t visually recognize. As such, the risks of conducting these “deterrence” operations are very high. Relying on countermeasures onboard aircraft as a safety measure is also a risky gamble, considering the adversary being one of the most technologically advanced military forces on the continent. A shootdown incident involving a US aircraft would be a great justification for the US to become directly involved in what would immediately become a wider conflict.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 2200Z December 8, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220008Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213008Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: CHINA BEGINS MILITARY EXERCISES IVO TAIWAN. US VETOES GAZA CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL AT UN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South Pacific: China launches military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. AC: This is almost certainly a power-projection move intended to coincide with Taiwan’s own exercises to test defenses against a probable Chinese invasion. However, Taiwanese defense forces have noted the use of a spy balloon, similar to those which violated US airspace earlier this year.
South America: No new major developments on situation in Guyana.
Middle East: Fighting remains intense in Khan Younis as IDF troops seek to maintain a foothold in Gaza’s second-largest city. Skirmishes remain constant along the Lebanese border, as well as in West Bank. Today, the U.S. vetoes a UN Security Council resolution to call for a ceasefire within Gaza. AC: So far, the U.S. has rejected all proposals for a ceasefire as brought before the UN Security Council.
-Homefront-
USA: Following reports that the Senate has denied the latest aid package for Ukraine, limited unconfirmed reporting indicates conflict among defense officials. Specifically, SECDEF Lloyd Austin is reported to have directly threatened to deploy US troops to Ukraine, if the aid package is not approved. However, other reports indicate this quote is missing context, or the exact wording of this quote is incorrect.
-Analyst Comments-
Regardless of the specific wording, the sentiments expressed by defense officials remain dedicated to the continuation of the Ukrainian war, or more specifically defense production.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 1830Z December 9, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183009Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173009Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ELECTION TURMOIL IN GUATEMALA. U.S. BEGINS PROCESS OF EXPEDITING AFGHAN IMMIGRANTS FROM PAKISTAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Political turmoil strikes Guatemala regarding recent elections. The Public Prosecutor’s office is calling for criminal charges against President-Elect Bernardo Arévalo due to “election irregularities”. AC: Despite the claims of a coup grabbing headlines, there is more to the story than meets the eye. The specific “irregularities” that have been found by the Public Prosecutor’s office involve the alleged falsification of polling station certificates, and the manipulation of computer systems. However, the forensic evidence of these claims has not yet been made public. The claims of a “coup” have come about after the Public Prosecutor’s office has submitted a complaint to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to nullify and investigate the election.
Middle East: Following the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Juliana Noyes to Pakistan a few days ago, the U.S. has begun the process of expediting the immigration of Afghan refugees into the United States. As a reminder, Pakistan began the process of deporting all undocumented immigrants last month, which included around 1.7 million Afghan refugees.
South Africa: Yesterday the Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) party carried out a large nationwide voter registration campaign, along with rallies in support of the EFF.
-Homefront-
USA: The Senator Menendez corruption scandal continues following the revelation of new information. In June of 2022, the FBI raided Senator Bob Menendez’s home, finding $480,000 in cash, and a stack of gold bars. Recent disclosures highlight that some of the serial numbers on these gold bars match those of gold bars that were reported as being stolen during an armed robbery in 2013. These gold bars were allegedly used as payment for a bribe by the Egyptian government to influence the Senator.
-Analyst Comments-
In South Africa, the electoral interests of the EFF are certain to increase tensions during the 2024 election season, and could result in boiling points being reached in an already tumultuous society. Recent voter registration events are certainly a move intended to expand their influence and solidify political control in provinces such as Western Cape (which historically has been challenging for the EFF to get a foothold in). As a reminder, the EFF is South Africa’s third-largest political party, having recently risen to prominence following controversy surrounding the routinely militant and violent tactics used by supporters. The leader of the EFF is Julius Malema, who has been at the center of controversy following his calls for violence against white farmers.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2030Z December 11, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203011Z DEC 23
ICOD: 193011Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS INCREASE IN THE RED SEA. UKRAINE PEACE TALKS LIKELY TO BEGIN IN JANUARY.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea: Yemen announces what amounts to a blockade of the Red Sea for all Israeli-affiliated shipping. Yemeni forces have claimed that they will target all commercial shipping owned by or affiliated with Israeli companies. AC: It is unclear as to what Yemen’s standards are for shipping being “Israeli affiliated”. Throughout this conflict so far, many groups opposed to Israel have targeted American forces (such as American military bases in Iraq and Syria), or other nations that are in some way linked to Israel. Adding in international shipping norms complicates the situation further. Commercial shipping, on any given day, is a grand shell game. It is rare for a ship to be registered in the nation that it supplies. For instance, the M/V GALAXY LEADER (the first ship captured by Yemeni forces) has a rather confusing history. The vessel itself physically carries the flag of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas, a former British colony. This vessel was chartered by a Japanese company (NYK) to transport vehicles. However, the vessel is owned by Ray Car Carriers, which despite being registered as a business in the Isle of Man, was founded by an Israeli business magnate. Regarding the crew physically operating the vessel, 17 members of the crew are Filipino, and the rest are from an assortment of nations such as Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, and so on. In the case of this one ship, at least a dozen nations are involved at some point regarding the operation of this vessel. This means that it’s rather difficult to determine what Yemen’s criteria is for a vessel being “Israeli-affiliated”, which in turn increases the risk for virtually all commercial shipping transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: In Switzerland, several media groups have announced the scheduling of peace talks regarding the Ukrainian war. During his visit to Argentina, Ukrainian President Zelensky floated the idea that peace talks will begin at the World Economic Forum, the day before that event gets underway in January. AC: If these claims are true, the peace talks taking place at such an infamous organization clearly sends a message as to the controlling interests at play regarding a post-war Ukraine.
-Homefront-
USA: The DoD announces the implementation of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) to send arms to Israel. This Act allows the DoD to bypass the normal process and send arms to Israel without Congressional approval. In this case, this law is allegedly being used to send tank shells to Israel, though without Congressional oversight there is little confirmation of any of these details.
-Analyst Comments-

As mentioned before, the information warfare that the western world has experienced regarding the Ukrainian war has been overwhelming. As such, after several years of such efforts, reality will be surprising to many. For years, the official narrative has essentially been “Ukraine is winning, Russia is about to surrender”. It will be rather shocking for many people to learn that the inverse has always been a more accurate depiction of the truth. Right now, Ukraine’s capitulation is not an “if”, but “when”. Consequently, events in the international arena will likely happen rather quickly as no one really knows what a peace deal might look like. Generally speaking, theories abound regarding if a peace deal will include the loss of territory, but this scenario is quite likely and almost certain for the districts that have been under Russian control for some time. Another major factor in question is a problem faced by all military occupations…when peace breaks out thousands of troops and billions of dollars will no longer be tied down by operations. As it has become socially acceptable to theorize that the Military Industrial Complex has largely been the driving force behind this war, in a case of peace those efforts will require another conflict to support. For those not concerned with the conflict in Ukraine, it is this factor that may have direct consequences for the Homefront.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 2030Z December 12, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 203012Z DEC 23
ICOD: 193012Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: REVELATIONS OF DOMESTIC U.S. SPYING CONTINUE. ISRAEL FACES FIERCE RESISTANCE IN KHAN YOUNIS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Israel makes progress in the consolidation of the northern pocket encircling Gaza City. In the north, Hezbollah continues harassing attacks and border skirmishes as before. However, IDF units have experienced heavy resistance in Khan Younis to the south, and have taken heavy casualties. IED attacks and extreme-close-range ambushes are very common as Israeli forces advance deeper into the Gaza Strip. Hamas militants continue rocket attacks regularly, though the volume of which is difficult to judge. Regarding civilians, the humanitarian crisis worsens as the flow of humanitarian aid is not enough to keep up with the demand. AC: With most structures in Gaza City suffering damage of some kind, hundreds of thousands of people are displaced or living amongst the rubble of their former homes. This creates challenges for the distribution of international aid. In the north, IDF officials have repeatedly issued warnings to Hezbollah over the past few days, indicating concerns with Hezbollah possibly opening up another major front in earnest. So far, Hezbollah rocket attacks and ATGM attacks on border checkpoints and LP/OPs have been regular, but not indicative of a major Hezbollah military operation.
-Homefront-
USA: A Congressional investigation has revealed that many popular pharmacies in the U.S. share customer medical records with law enforcement, without a warrant. In the letter sent to the US Department of Health and Human Services, questions also remain regarding the investigative tactics that would require the medical information contained by a pharmacy. AC: Though not explicitly stated or referenced in the official Congressional documentation, the implications of this are concerning considering context of the medical targeting that has taken place over the past few years.
In a similar vein, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) is coming to an end in December. Consequently, Congress has been drafting an update to this legislation over the past few months to pick up when the current law expires. However, legal analysts have noted that while the update to Section 702 is being touted as being less-privacy-invasive for Americans, the inverse is actually true.
-Analyst Comments-
It has been a rough week for domestic spying revelations for the American public. Regarding the scandal surrounding Section 702 of FISA, as the revisions currently stand the proposed changes read like a Patriot Act 2.0, granting virtually unlimited domestic surveillance capabilities to most federal agencies, all without a warrant. Currently, FISA regulations are intended to allow spying on non-US Persons for homeland security without a warrant. As such, a behemoth of organizational efforts exist to streamline this surveillance process. However, any US Persons who may end up part of an investigation would require a warrant and justification to be included in surveillance operations. The latest drafts of the update to Section 702 remove this requirement in most cases, allowing federal tactics intended to surveil non-citizens to be used against US citizens. Most of the specific concerns come from the changing of definitions. This is a classic tactic to slowly mission-creep legislation without much notice or attention. First pass the law, with all eyes on it, then over the years “update” or “modernize” the terms contained within, which ends up changing the entire meaning of the original text. This appears to be the source of much consternation regarding this legislation.

As this scandal has garnered public attention, Speaker Johnson has pulled these updates from the floor until next year. Right now, Congress is working on a 4-month extension for Section 702, while the drafts can be updated, and the vote can quietly occur without as much public attention. As a reminder, it was Speaker Johnson himself who rushed this legislation forward to a hasty vote in the first place, with the drafts moving forward for public viewing last week.
Though the revelations regarding medical surveillance are recently coming to light in the MSM, this practice has been standard for a long time. Simply put, the warrantless surveillance of Americans has become industrialized to the point of sheer exhaustion. However, it is important to note the level of local complicity in this matter. Rather than simply requesting access to an online database, several companies have revealed that the practice is largely handled on the ground by each individual store; meaning that a local LE entity can walk into a store, speak with the local manager, and obtain whatever information they want about any customer…all without a warrant.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN

RR The Wire 2330Z December 13, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233013Z DEC 23
ICOD: 223013Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN THE RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The United Nations General Assembly votes in favor of the implementation of a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. AC: Like most matters within the field of international diplomacy, these resolutions have no real power. However, as the final vote was 153 nations for, and 10 nations against (with 23 abstentions) this is a good indicator of international sentiment regarding the current conflict in Gaza.
In the Red Sea, Yemeni forces attacked the M/V STRINDA with a cruise missile. Initial reporting indicates the vessel was traveling IVO the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the time of the strike. AC: Though Norwegian flagged, this chemical tanker was scheduled to make a port call in Israel next month. This comes on the heels of the French frigate LANGUEDOC (D653) reporting the interception of two Yemeni drones attempting to target her in the same area four days ago.
Europe: A report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy indicates that much of the critical infrastructure throughout the United Kingdom is exceptionally vulnerable to cyberattacks. AC: This comes as no surprise as cyberattack threats remain constant throughout most of the western world.
-Homefront-
USA: The U.S. sends an additional $200 million to Ukraine. Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high of 37,090. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the day with similar highs.
-Analyst Comments-
Economic pundits are claiming these numbers are the result of the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts next year. However, exercising caution would be wise when assessing risk in highly-manipulated financial markets.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z December 14, 2023
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DTG: 213014Z DEC 23
ICOD: 203014Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: CONGRESS PASSES EXTENSION OF FISA SECTION 702.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reports the interception of a distress call from a vessel reporting a boarding incident in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Many reports of irregular activity have been made over the past few weeks as Yemeni forces seek to continue the targeting of Israeli-affiliated shipping in the Red Sea.
South America: Despite little new information on the Guyana situation, tensions remain high in the region. Venezuela has issued a 90-day ultimatum to ExxonMobil for the cessation of all operations within the Stabroek Block oil field in the EEZ of Guyana. This ultimatum expires in March, 2024.
-Homefront-
USA: The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passes the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including the controversial extension of FISA Section 702. This $886 billion annual defense bill was passed immediately before Congress begins their vacation break for the holidays.
-Analyst Comments-
As threats to maritime shipping continue, the costs associated with commercial shipping will likely increase. Though the number of vessels being targeted in the Red Sea is small (considering this is one of the most highly trafficked waterways in the world), direct kinetic threats to shipping usually attract international attention. As such, most nations with the ability to project Naval power have quietly increased presence patrols in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1830Z December 15, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183015Z DEC 23
ICOD: 173015Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: MAERSK SUSPENDS OPERATIONS IN RED SEA DUE TO SECURITY THREATS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni forces hijack the M/V RUEN. Yemeni forces attempted to hijack the M/V ARDMORE ENCOUNTER, which was unsuccessful. After boarders were repelled from this vessel, Yemeni forces launched and struck the vessel with two ASCMs. The USS MASON (DDG 57) was also recently targeted again by kamikaze drones. A plethora of US Navy vessels have come under numerous attacks over the past few weeks as well.
In response to these events, the Danish shipping company Maersk has announced a pause of all shipping operations in the Red Sea. Maersk is the largest shipping company in the world, and accounts for about 15% of all global trade. Hapag-Lloyd has also made a similar announcement regarding the cessation of operations in the Red Sea for now. AC: This is a very serious event that will likely have direct and immediate consequences for most international trade…though perhaps not in the ways one might expect.
Company representatives have specifically stated that their ships are also not transiting around the continent of Africa, the only other feasible route for Eurasian trade. Though details are sketchy at best, this may suggest a global bottleneck of trade. Maersk may also have inside knowledge of other factors that would make the weeks-long trip around the Cape of Good Hope not the best option. Though somewhat of an analytical leap, the “pause” (rather than immediately shifting to the longer route around Africa) suggests that at least Maersk believes that the issues of targeting and piracy will be short lived.
-Analyst Comments-
The recent targeting of international shipping in the Red Sea highlights the problems within a seemingly unrelated factor…economics. Even just a couple of years ago, a simple shipping accident caused global strife in the Suez Canal. The incident involving the M/V EVER GIVEN resulted in the international shipping community being thrown into chaos for a few days. International financial markets were also affected immediately, taking a downturn mere hours after an event occurred; an event that we knew at the time was not terrorism-related.
Within the past few weeks, OPEC has announced substantial production cuts. A petroleum war is on the brink in South America. Multiple ships have been struck with drones and cruise missiles in the Red Sea. There is a hot war in the Holy Land….and all financial markets reach record highs. Any one of these events just a couple of years ago would have resulted in the global financial sector taking massive (albeit probably temporary) hits. One of the largest shipping companies in the world announces a pause in operations, in an area that handles 10% of all trade on Earth…and the effect on global finance is barely noticeable (as of the writing of this report). Even Maersk’s own stock didn’t have the slightest perceivable dip upon the announcement of this “pause”. No economic expertise is needed to perceive that the substantial events of the past few weeks having little to no effect on the pulse of global finance probably means that economic data is no longer representative of the severity of the situation.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 16, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220016Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210016Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: CONFLICT ESCALATES IN THE RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Tensions increase as Yemeni forces increase attacks substantially. CENTCOM reports the USS CARNEY (DDG 64) has successfully shot down 14 drones in the past 24 hours. This morning the HMS DIAMOND (D34) also successfully engaged a drone targeting commercial shipping.
South America: Venezuela and Guyana have begun negotiations regarding the Essequibo situation. Negotiations began on Thursday and will likely continue for the next few days. Both parties have issued statements affirming the importance of peace in the region.
-Analyst Comments-
Interestingly and somewhat surprisingly, both Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali met in person for these initial meetings (which are being held in the neutral archipelago of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines). Normally, diplomats of varying importance take the reins of such similar situations. Having both heads of state take such a direct role in negotiations (at least so far) indicates that both parties understand the severity of this issue. So far, no solid agreement has been reached, and it is too soon to tell if a diplomatic solution is viable at this stage.
Regarding commercial shipping, Maersk’s stock actually increased sharply following yesterday’s report. This comes as investors are optimistic that Maersk (having to take the longer route around Africa), will now be able to charge more for shipping services, leading to presumably increased revenue. However, this assessment is rather short-sighted as global trade depends heavily on both the Panama and Suez Canals. There is a reason as to why the Suez route is one of the most heavily trafficked waterways in the world. In the short term, shipping companies will be able to charge more for cargo services…but in due time maintenance, fuel costs, personnel issues, losses due to weather, and opportunity cost resulting in the sheer lack of hulls themselves are all variables that are hard to predict and will take a toll on profits. If the Red Sea route weren’t the best, most profitable option, it wouldn’t need to exist. Optimism regarding potential profits is gambling that the short-term profits will be able to outweigh the long-term costs. As most financial institutions and markets are very risk-averse in almost every possible way right now, this adds credence to the idea that the global financial sector is divorced from reality when considering the importance of logistics.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z December 18, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 213018Z DEC 23
ICOD: 203018Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: SHIPPING COMPANIES CONTINUE TO HALT OPERATIONS IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping continue. So far, most of the major commercial shipping companies in the world have announced a cessation of operations in the Red Sea until further notice. The list includes the following container shipping companies: Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Evergreen.
This morning, most major oil tanker companies have also announced a halt to the transit of their oil tankers through the Red Sea. Among the list are: Euronav, British Petroleum (BP), Frontline Ltd.
In response to the recent escalation of targeting in the Red Sea, various nations have stepped up counter-piracy patrols in the region, in addition to providing missile defense for passing cargo vessels. This coalition of vessels includes the USS BATAAN ARG and the USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER CSG, along with varying support vessels. AC: These defensive tactics will probably not be effective in the long run, as Yemen’s success rate is comparatively high, considering the presence of Naval ships that have already been deployed in the Red Sea. If coalition forces were able to provide adequate defenses, all of the major shipping companies in the world would not be transferring to the longer route around Africa.
-Homefront-
USA: Japan’s largest steel company, Nippon Steel Corporation has agreed to purchase US Steel for $14 billion.
-Analyst Comments-
As expected, the situation in the Red Sea has rapidly become a global problem, not just a concern for trade between Asia and Europe. Oil companies ceasing operations has already had an immediate impact on petroleum prices (though perhaps not as much as it should, probably due to the heavily manipulated markets).
As a reminder, the political and governance situation in Yemen is a complex issue. As such, most media outlets have referred to the forces conducting these attacks as “Houthi rebels” or “Yemeni rebels”. This is due to the international hesitance to recognize Yemeni forces as the legitimate government. Houthi rebels conducted a military coup in 2015, seizing the capitol and overthrowing the government. Since then, Yemen has in effect been ruled by a military junta, which exercises control over most of the country. In short, the coup worked and the Houthis control Yemen, but most nations don’t want to recognize this, so the wording of reports is altered to not grant de facto recognition to this government. The government of Yemen that existed prior to 2015 has zero control over the nation, and since the coup, the “rebel” forces have been the most legitimate form of governance in Yemen.
Though seemingly a useless debate of semantics, this wording has legal implications for military action. If Yemeni forces are classified as “terrorists”, preexisting counterterrorism operations could be used to nest any combat operations under. Conversely, if the Houthis were recognized as the leader of a legitimate government, international sovereignty complications would likely arise.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z December 19, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 230019Z DEC 23
ICOD: 220019Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. CLOSES EAGLE PASS BORDER CROSSING, HALTING TRADE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-Homefront-
USA: The border crisis deepens following a surge of illegal immigrants being granted entry into the U.S. in Texas. The border crossings at Eagle Pass and in El Paso have been closed so that CBP agents can be allocated to process the tens of thousands of people in the latest surge. Union Pacific representatives have urged the re-opening of the Eagle Pass crossing, citing that 45% of all trade between US/Mexico crosses the border at this site. AC: This is not the first time that international trade has been affected by illegal immigration, as operations at various ports of entry have been closed at times in response to large groups of immigrants causing delays. However, this latest surge has required the reassignment of most CBP agents to assist in processing immigrants into the US, which has directly impacted rail logistics.
-Analyst Comments-
Following the situation at the southern US border, travelers have noted substantial numbers of illegal immigrants on domestic U.S. flights. In Texas, the TSA has emplaced special checkpoints at several airports that allow illegal immigrants to be processed through airport security without proper identification (using the documents provided by CBP instead of the documentation TSA normally accepts). Considering the recent revelations regarding the surveillance of J6 participants, and the use of federal Air Marshals to “hand out water bottles” to illegals at the border, the risks of air travel are likely higher throughout this holiday season. Though there are no specific threats perceivable via open sources, common sense would indicate that the sheer volume of undocumented persons being funneled through the border (and into secure spaces) does not bode well for national security.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1400Z December 21, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 140021Z DEC 23
ICOD: 130021Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TRUMP REMOVED FROM COLORADO BALLOT PENDING APPEAL. CONFLICT ESCALATES IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Conflict escalates following Yemen’s announcement of further combat operations in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Yemen has threatened to lay mines in the strait, and has increased the targeting of what few vessels have attempted to transit the Red Sea, despite a heavy US Navy presence throughout the region.
Most commercial shipping companies have rerouted their vessels to the longer route around Africa. At the moment, the only oil tankers transiting the Red Sea are those transporting Russian or Iranian oil, which have been granted permission to pass unharmed by Yemen.
South Pacific: In response to events in the Middle East, Malaysia has announced that Israeli ships will be restricted from using Malaysian ports, and from anchoring within their territorial waters. AC: It is unclear as to if the same criteria used by Yemen to discern Israeli ships will also be used by Malaysia. So far, it seems as though the Malaysian restrictions only apply to the Israeli shipping company ZIM. However, any ship destined for Israeli ports is likely to fall under the new docking restrictions.
-Homefront-
USA: The situation at the southern border remains tense as authorities struggle to process tens of thousands of illegal immigrants into the U.S. following the latest surge. Most of the legal border crossing checkpoints in the Del Rio sector remain either closed or operational with limited hours. Substantial delays are also expected for commercial traffic (either inbound or outbound) due to the shortage of CBP personnel. Per CBP sources, 200,000+ illegal immigrants have been processed into the U.S. during the month of December alone.
CO: The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for office, removing him from the ballot of the 2024 Presidential election. Following this judgement, both Maine and California are also exploring similar options to ban Trump from the ballot in their states. AC: This is almost certainly a political move that under normal circumstances would not stand up to an appeal.
-Analyst Comments-
Consideration must be given to the follow-on effects in the event that the CO judgement is allowed to stand. As other states are also entertaining the idea of banning Trump from the ballot, flashpoints will emerge as long-standing legal precedents are shattered by politically motivated judicial rulings.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z December 22, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223022Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213022Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN RED SEA. DOMESTIC U.S. POLITICS REMAINS TUMULTUOUS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Tensions remain between the allies forming a maritime protection force in the Red Sea. Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is the multi-national Task Force being led by the U.S. Navy to provide security for ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. France, having initially agreed to take part and commit forces, has broken from the Task Force reportedly due to poor leadership and lack of organization. France will only be providing maritime security for French-flagged ships ATT. AC: This crisis has not only highlighted leadership problems within the U.S. DoD, but also the enduring problems within the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program. The LCS vessels produced in this program were designed from the keel up with this exact mission in mind, but following decades of scandal, very few of them are functional. So far, only traditional Aegis support (via DDGs and CGs) has provided protection for vessels in the Red Sea. However, as OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has not really gotten underway yet, the level of support the US Navy can provide in the region is not clear. Commercial shipping companies, either unwilling to wait for the US Navy to coordinate defenses, or lacking faith in this operation altogether, have continued to re-route ships around the Cape of Good Hope.
-Homefront-
USA: The recent scandal surrounding the removal of candidates from primary ballots has widened. Following the removal of Donald Trump from Colorado’s Republican primary ballot, several conservative-majority states have threatened to remove Joe Biden from their ballots. Several Democrat-run states have already removed Democrat candidates from their ballots, only allowing one candidate (Joe Biden) to run in their primary elections.
New York: A propane truck crashed into a railroad bridge in Glenville, resulting in a large explosion and subsequent fire. The driver remains hospitalized for severe burns. Initial reporting indicates the truck may have been over height for the bridge it was passing under.
-Analyst Comments-
It is difficult to determine how the situation will shake out regarding ballots. Right now, there is a lot of talk, but few actual documents to examine to arrive at a definitive analysis. It is not uncommon for state-level party leadership to ban certain candidates from running under their own party, but this year the number of Democrat-run states that have only allowed Biden to run under their banner seems higher. Likewise, the removal (or blocking in some way) of Republican candidates from running due to eligibility being removed via a Supreme Court decision is unheard of. The potential for divisions between states (and more importantly, state agencies) could lead to more serious flashpoints than standard civil unrest.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1900Z December 23, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 190023Z DEC 23
ICOD: 180023Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MARITIME ATTACKS EXPAND TO INDIAN OCEAN. SPAIN, ITALY LEAVE RED SEA TF.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Indian Ocean: The M/V CHEM PLUTO was attacked with a kamikaze drone in the northern Indian Ocean, approximately 200 NM SW of Gujarat, India. AC: Though no one has yet claimed responsibility for this attack, this matches the typical attack profile of Iran, who has a history of conducting similar attacks in the same area.
Red Sea/HOA: Italy and Spain have followed France in leaving the US-lead maritime security coalition OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN. Both Spain and Italy have left this coalition due to the refusal to place their ships under US command. Some nations have claimed that they will be supporting the mission, but have pledged no naval support. Per the latest press releases, the Netherlands will be sending two staff officers, and Denmark will be sending one staff officer. Australia will be sending 11 staff officers, but no ships ATT. The U.K. has pledged to commit one ship (the HMS DIAMOND, already in theatre) to the operation.
-Analyst Comments-
This operation has (in effect) collapsed before it even began. The U.S. Navy does not need a coalition to provide maritime security, but the explicit lack of cooperation from allies speaks volumes on the diplomatic front. Since the dawn of naval warfare, projecting power around the globe via maritime supremacy has been a strong indicator of a nation’s standing in the world. If the U.S. has lost support for one for one of the simplest naval operations that is doctrinally possible (counter-piracy and missile defense against a non-state actor), this does not bode well for the U.S. Navy or for the United States’ standing in the world. This also highlights the issues of naval command that would be huge vulnerabilities in the event that conflict breaks out in the South China Sea. If the strongest naval force in human history cannot reliably defend unarmed merchant vessels, and leads the Task Force so poorly that allied naval powers publicly don’t want to be a part of it, there is little chance for success in a conflict that involves a near-peer threat.
Strategically, it is possible that the U.S. intends to launch an offensive operation against Yemen and/or Iran. After all, the US Navy has already demonstrated that, despite best efforts (and outstanding work on the part of the DDG crews so far) missile defense is challenging even under the best of conditions. As such, the U.S. is probably planning operations to strike targets within Yemen to ease the pressure on defensive efforts. However, even though DoD leadership has financial interest in Raytheon (the supplier for most of the munitions used by the Navy so far), the sheer lack of production capacity has cast doubts on what the DoD’s actual plan is. Following the Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza, US weapons stockpiles are at an all time low, and it’s highly likely that the DoD simply doesn’t have the munitions to launch a major offensive campaign. If OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is really a cover for a more offensive effort, this would explain major allies parting with the plan, as no major nationstate has the desire to become entangled in yet another war that even the U.S. can’t pay for. Though it is costing up to $2 million per missile to shoot down Yemeni missiles/drones, other nations may see this as vastly cheaper than launching a major military campaign.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z December 24, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z DEC 23
ICOD: 223024Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO TOWN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Santa has departed the North Pole, and has begun his yearly journey around the world. A U.S. military radar site in Greenland first picked up Santa’s sleigh a few minutes after take off. Just a few moments later, personnel at the arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway were able to see the red light of Rudolph’s nose as Santa flew overhead.
Owing to the tremendous speed at which Santa travels are various technological improvements that have been made to his sleigh this year. The lead Elf team in charge of maintenance and northern transportation has confirmed that new hypersonic upgrades have improved Santa’s sleigh, allowing him to reach speeds higher than before.
If you want to track Santa’s sleigh in real time, NORAD maintains a tracking website at: www.noradsanta.org.
Analyst Comments: Regular Wire reporting will continue on December 27th, pending any emergency issues. Thank you all for your support this year, and we hope that peace can prevail in the new year. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1700Z December 27, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 170027Z DEC 23
ICOD: 160027Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: MAERSK ALLEGEDLY RESUMES SHIPPING IN RED SEA. U.S. BORDER CRISIS DEEPENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Central America: Drought conditions in Panama create worst delays seen yet for ships transiting the Panama Canal. AC: As a reminder, the drought in Panama has been ongoing for months, causing delays for all ships transiting the choke point. Ironically, the region saw better-than-expected rainfall during November, which has alleviated the problems significantly. However, over the past few days the lake that feeds fresh water to the locks systems essential for the transit of ships has been too low, causing more delays. In the context of global shipping routes feeling strain, this is important to note as the cost increases incurred by shipping companies will be passed on to the consumer.
Red Sea/HOA: US CENTCOM announced that the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down twelve drones, three ASCMs, and two LACMs yesterday. These engagements come as Maersk announces the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.
AC: It is unclear as to if Maersk will actually be resuming shipping through the region. Ships have been scheduled to make the transit over the coming weeks, but doctrinally speaking, the adversary always gets a vote in future plans. Yemen has demonstrated their ability to target ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, even with substantial U.S. Navy protection. If commercial ships begin to resume normal operations in the Red Sea, we will see an increase in targeting as Yemen has learned valuable Anti-Shipping combat experience over the past few weeks.
Gaza/Israel: The war continues as before. Israeli operations have expanded in Gaza as the fighting becomes even more brutal on both sides. Attacks from Hezbollah have intensified in the north as rocket attacks become more numerous and frequent. Hezbollah has also demonstrated the ability to regularly target locations deep inside Israel. AC: Though details are sketchy at best, some sources indicate that Hezbollah has targeted Iron Dome missile defense sites in Capri with laser-guided munitions. If these reports are true, the munitions in question are probably Basir 155mm artillery shells of likely Iranian origin (which itself is a copy of the old Soviet 2K25 Krasnopol system). Though unconfirmed reporting is not definitive by any means, if this is true this would be both a substantial escalation of the conflict in the north, and also likely the first operational test (by Hezbollah) of these advanced weapons systems.
-Homefront-
USA: Border crisis deepens following another surge of illegal immigrants during the Christmas holiday weekend. Some media outlets are reporting (via confidential sources) that around 30,000 illegals were detained over the weekend. AC: Though independent verification is not possible yet, these numbers are in line with the severity of the latest illegal immigrant surge. As a reminder, almost all of these “detentions” and “apprehensions” are temporary and do not result in immediate deportation, but rather transportation deeper into America’s interior.
Analyst Comments: The conflict in the Red Sea is the epitome of an age-old idea within the field of insurgency. The Houthis only have to be lucky once, the U.S. Navy has to be lucky every single time. If the U.S. Navy (and other coalition vessels) cannot provide reliable protection for commercial vessels, the global maritime community will eventually respond. Even the highly-manipulated financial markets (which have not responded appropriately to this crisis) cannot remain grounded in fantasy forever. In due time, missile shortages are going to catch up with the U.S. Navy…shortages that are not present in Yemen.

Though obviously not comparable to actual combat, the war on the information front remains intense with regards to conflict in the Middle East. Even the most carefully-worded new reports are no longer enough to prevent censorship and the loss of one’s livelihood, resulting in the cessation of reporting for many people who realize nothing can be done to stop what is happening. Conversely, pro-Palestinian demonstrations have intensified in Europe and the United States in direct response to events in Gaza, causing civil unrest concerns in most major U.S. cities. In the U.K. specifically, many of the issues caused by the conflict in Gaza have been conflated with immigration issues as most of the pro-Palestine demonstrations have been attended largely by immigrants.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 28, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220028Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210028Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN RED SEA. U.S. REBUILDS AIRFIELD IN PACIFIC, DRAWING IRE OF CHINA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: As maritime shipping begins to resume (to some degree) through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, interesting AIS transponder data has been noted by observers. In the metadata broadcast by a ship’s AIS transponder, short messages are being transmitted to dissuade targeting by Yemen. Over the past couple of weeks, it was common to see ships inserting the text “ARMED GUARDS ONBOARD” in the data transmitted by their transponder. Now, several ships have been noted to change this to “NO CONTACT ISRAEL” as a method of conveying that their ship has no affiliation with Israel. AC: Though how successful this will be is not known, it is interesting to note as this is yet another overt demonstration of the lack of confidence in the protection provided by naval vessels. As a reminder, Yemeni forces have ordered all ships to leave their AIS transponders on, whereas some reports indicate vessels being urged by various authorities to turn off their transponders when transiting the Red Sea to avoid targeting. This complicates efforts to identify the true number of vessels transiting the choke point. So far, many maritime shipping companies appear to be “splitting the difference” and mitigating risk by sending some ships through the Red Sea, and others around the Cape.
South Pacific: Chinese officials have urged defense forces to remain on “high alert” over the coming months, in response to U.S. strategic moves in the region. The U.S. is currently refurbishing an old WWII airbase on Tinian Island, a sparsely populated island approximately 90 NM north of Guam. The U.S. airbase on this island was abandoned in 1947, and recently efforts have been undertaken to reclaim the airfield from the jungle so as to serve as another critical staging base for aircraft in the event of a war in the South Pacific.
Analyst Comments: Reclaiming Tinian Island has historical implications as well, which are probably the reasoning behind Chinese apprehension (in addition to the obvious military reasons). Tinian Island was the base from which the 509th Composite Group was stationed, and the point of departure for the B-29 Superfortresses which dropped the atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Reclaiming this airfield not only reactivates a vital base of operations, but also sends a clear message to the entire South Pacific region.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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