RR The Wire 2330Z December 13, 2023
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BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN THE RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The United Nations General Assembly votes in favor of the implementation of a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. AC: Like most matters within the field of international diplomacy, these resolutions have no real power. However, as the final vote was 153 nations for, and 10 nations against (with 23 abstentions) this is a good indicator of international sentiment regarding the current conflict in Gaza.
In the Red Sea, Yemeni forces attacked the M/V STRINDA with a cruise missile. Initial reporting indicates the vessel was traveling IVO the Bab el Mandeb Strait at the time of the strike. AC: Though Norwegian flagged, this chemical tanker was scheduled to make a port call in Israel next month. This comes on the heels of the French frigate LANGUEDOC (D653) reporting the interception of two Yemeni drones attempting to target her in the same area four days ago.
Europe: A report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy indicates that much of the critical infrastructure throughout the United Kingdom is exceptionally vulnerable to cyberattacks. AC: This comes as no surprise as cyberattack threats remain constant throughout most of the western world.
-Homefront-
USA: The U.S. sends an additional $200 million to Ukraine. Today, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high of 37,090. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished the day with similar highs.
-Analyst Comments-
Economic pundits are claiming these numbers are the result of the Federal Reserve signaling rate cuts next year. However, exercising caution would be wise when assessing risk in highly-manipulated financial markets.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z December 14, 2023
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BLUF: CONGRESS PASSES EXTENSION OF FISA SECTION 702.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reports the interception of a distress call from a vessel reporting a boarding incident in the eastern Gulf of Aden. Many reports of irregular activity have been made over the past few weeks as Yemeni forces seek to continue the targeting of Israeli-affiliated shipping in the Red Sea.
South America: Despite little new information on the Guyana situation, tensions remain high in the region. Venezuela has issued a 90-day ultimatum to ExxonMobil for the cessation of all operations within the Stabroek Block oil field in the EEZ of Guyana. This ultimatum expires in March, 2024.
-Homefront-
USA: The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passes the FY 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including the controversial extension of FISA Section 702. This $886 billion annual defense bill was passed immediately before Congress begins their vacation break for the holidays.
-Analyst Comments-
As threats to maritime shipping continue, the costs associated with commercial shipping will likely increase. Though the number of vessels being targeted in the Red Sea is small (considering this is one of the most highly trafficked waterways in the world), direct kinetic threats to shipping usually attract international attention. As such, most nations with the ability to project Naval power have quietly increased presence patrols in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1830Z December 15, 2023
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BLUF: MAERSK SUSPENDS OPERATIONS IN RED SEA DUE TO SECURITY THREATS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni forces hijack the M/V RUEN. Yemeni forces attempted to hijack the M/V ARDMORE ENCOUNTER, which was unsuccessful. After boarders were repelled from this vessel, Yemeni forces launched and struck the vessel with two ASCMs. The USS MASON (DDG 57) was also recently targeted again by kamikaze drones. A plethora of US Navy vessels have come under numerous attacks over the past few weeks as well.
In response to these events, the Danish shipping company Maersk has announced a pause of all shipping operations in the Red Sea. Maersk is the largest shipping company in the world, and accounts for about 15% of all global trade. Hapag-Lloyd has also made a similar announcement regarding the cessation of operations in the Red Sea for now. AC: This is a very serious event that will likely have direct and immediate consequences for most international trade…though perhaps not in the ways one might expect.
Company representatives have specifically stated that their ships are also not transiting around the continent of Africa, the only other feasible route for Eurasian trade. Though details are sketchy at best, this may suggest a global bottleneck of trade. Maersk may also have inside knowledge of other factors that would make the weeks-long trip around the Cape of Good Hope not the best option. Though somewhat of an analytical leap, the “pause” (rather than immediately shifting to the longer route around Africa) suggests that at least Maersk believes that the issues of targeting and piracy will be short lived.
-Analyst Comments-
The recent targeting of international shipping in the Red Sea highlights the problems within a seemingly unrelated factor…economics. Even just a couple of years ago, a simple shipping accident caused global strife in the Suez Canal. The incident involving the M/V EVER GIVEN resulted in the international shipping community being thrown into chaos for a few days. International financial markets were also affected immediately, taking a downturn mere hours after an event occurred; an event that we knew at the time was not terrorism-related.
Within the past few weeks, OPEC has announced substantial production cuts. A petroleum war is on the brink in South America. Multiple ships have been struck with drones and cruise missiles in the Red Sea. There is a hot war in the Holy Land….and all financial markets reach record highs. Any one of these events just a couple of years ago would have resulted in the global financial sector taking massive (albeit probably temporary) hits. One of the largest shipping companies in the world announces a pause in operations, in an area that handles 10% of all trade on Earth…and the effect on global finance is barely noticeable (as of the writing of this report). Even Maersk’s own stock didn’t have the slightest perceivable dip upon the announcement of this “pause”. No economic expertise is needed to perceive that the substantial events of the past few weeks having little to no effect on the pulse of global finance probably means that economic data is no longer representative of the severity of the situation.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 16, 2023
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BLUF: CONFLICT ESCALATES IN THE RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Tensions increase as Yemeni forces increase attacks substantially. CENTCOM reports the USS CARNEY (DDG 64) has successfully shot down 14 drones in the past 24 hours. This morning the HMS DIAMOND (D34) also successfully engaged a drone targeting commercial shipping.
South America: Venezuela and Guyana have begun negotiations regarding the Essequibo situation. Negotiations began on Thursday and will likely continue for the next few days. Both parties have issued statements affirming the importance of peace in the region.
-Analyst Comments-
Interestingly and somewhat surprisingly, both Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali met in person for these initial meetings (which are being held in the neutral archipelago of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines). Normally, diplomats of varying importance take the reins of such similar situations. Having both heads of state take such a direct role in negotiations (at least so far) indicates that both parties understand the severity of this issue. So far, no solid agreement has been reached, and it is too soon to tell if a diplomatic solution is viable at this stage.
Regarding commercial shipping, Maersk’s stock actually increased sharply following yesterday’s report. This comes as investors are optimistic that Maersk (having to take the longer route around Africa), will now be able to charge more for shipping services, leading to presumably increased revenue. However, this assessment is rather short-sighted as global trade depends heavily on both the Panama and Suez Canals. There is a reason as to why the Suez route is one of the most heavily trafficked waterways in the world. In the short term, shipping companies will be able to charge more for cargo services…but in due time maintenance, fuel costs, personnel issues, losses due to weather, and opportunity cost resulting in the sheer lack of hulls themselves are all variables that are hard to predict and will take a toll on profits. If the Red Sea route weren’t the best, most profitable option, it wouldn’t need to exist. Optimism regarding potential profits is gambling that the short-term profits will be able to outweigh the long-term costs. As most financial institutions and markets are very risk-averse in almost every possible way right now, this adds credence to the idea that the global financial sector is divorced from reality when considering the importance of logistics.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2130Z December 18, 2023
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DTG: 213018Z DEC 23
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BLUF: SHIPPING COMPANIES CONTINUE TO HALT OPERATIONS IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping continue. So far, most of the major commercial shipping companies in the world have announced a cessation of operations in the Red Sea until further notice. The list includes the following container shipping companies: Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and Evergreen.
This morning, most major oil tanker companies have also announced a halt to the transit of their oil tankers through the Red Sea. Among the list are: Euronav, British Petroleum (BP), Frontline Ltd.
In response to the recent escalation of targeting in the Red Sea, various nations have stepped up counter-piracy patrols in the region, in addition to providing missile defense for passing cargo vessels. This coalition of vessels includes the USS BATAAN ARG and the USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER CSG, along with varying support vessels. AC: These defensive tactics will probably not be effective in the long run, as Yemen’s success rate is comparatively high, considering the presence of Naval ships that have already been deployed in the Red Sea. If coalition forces were able to provide adequate defenses, all of the major shipping companies in the world would not be transferring to the longer route around Africa.
-Homefront-
USA: Japan’s largest steel company, Nippon Steel Corporation has agreed to purchase US Steel for $14 billion.
-Analyst Comments-
As expected, the situation in the Red Sea has rapidly become a global problem, not just a concern for trade between Asia and Europe. Oil companies ceasing operations has already had an immediate impact on petroleum prices (though perhaps not as much as it should, probably due to the heavily manipulated markets).
As a reminder, the political and governance situation in Yemen is a complex issue. As such, most media outlets have referred to the forces conducting these attacks as “Houthi rebels” or “Yemeni rebels”. This is due to the international hesitance to recognize Yemeni forces as the legitimate government. Houthi rebels conducted a military coup in 2015, seizing the capitol and overthrowing the government. Since then, Yemen has in effect been ruled by a military junta, which exercises control over most of the country. In short, the coup worked and the Houthis control Yemen, but most nations don’t want to recognize this, so the wording of reports is altered to not grant de facto recognition to this government. The government of Yemen that existed prior to 2015 has zero control over the nation, and since the coup, the “rebel” forces have been the most legitimate form of governance in Yemen.
Though seemingly a useless debate of semantics, this wording has legal implications for military action. If Yemeni forces are classified as “terrorists”, preexisting counterterrorism operations could be used to nest any combat operations under. Conversely, if the Houthis were recognized as the leader of a legitimate government, international sovereignty complications would likely arise.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2300Z December 19, 2023
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DTG: 230019Z DEC 23
ICOD: 220019Z DEC 23
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BLUF: U.S. CLOSES EAGLE PASS BORDER CROSSING, HALTING TRADE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-Homefront-
USA: The border crisis deepens following a surge of illegal immigrants being granted entry into the U.S. in Texas. The border crossings at Eagle Pass and in El Paso have been closed so that CBP agents can be allocated to process the tens of thousands of people in the latest surge. Union Pacific representatives have urged the re-opening of the Eagle Pass crossing, citing that 45% of all trade between US/Mexico crosses the border at this site. AC: This is not the first time that international trade has been affected by illegal immigration, as operations at various ports of entry have been closed at times in response to large groups of immigrants causing delays. However, this latest surge has required the reassignment of most CBP agents to assist in processing immigrants into the US, which has directly impacted rail logistics.
-Analyst Comments-
Following the situation at the southern US border, travelers have noted substantial numbers of illegal immigrants on domestic U.S. flights. In Texas, the TSA has emplaced special checkpoints at several airports that allow illegal immigrants to be processed through airport security without proper identification (using the documents provided by CBP instead of the documentation TSA normally accepts). Considering the recent revelations regarding the surveillance of J6 participants, and the use of federal Air Marshals to “hand out water bottles” to illegals at the border, the risks of air travel are likely higher throughout this holiday season. Though there are no specific threats perceivable via open sources, common sense would indicate that the sheer volume of undocumented persons being funneled through the border (and into secure spaces) does not bode well for national security.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1400Z December 21, 2023
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BLUF: TRUMP REMOVED FROM COLORADO BALLOT PENDING APPEAL. CONFLICT ESCALATES IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Conflict escalates following Yemen’s announcement of further combat operations in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Yemen has threatened to lay mines in the strait, and has increased the targeting of what few vessels have attempted to transit the Red Sea, despite a heavy US Navy presence throughout the region.
Most commercial shipping companies have rerouted their vessels to the longer route around Africa. At the moment, the only oil tankers transiting the Red Sea are those transporting Russian or Iranian oil, which have been granted permission to pass unharmed by Yemen.
South Pacific: In response to events in the Middle East, Malaysia has announced that Israeli ships will be restricted from using Malaysian ports, and from anchoring within their territorial waters. AC: It is unclear as to if the same criteria used by Yemen to discern Israeli ships will also be used by Malaysia. So far, it seems as though the Malaysian restrictions only apply to the Israeli shipping company ZIM. However, any ship destined for Israeli ports is likely to fall under the new docking restrictions.
-Homefront-
USA: The situation at the southern border remains tense as authorities struggle to process tens of thousands of illegal immigrants into the U.S. following the latest surge. Most of the legal border crossing checkpoints in the Del Rio sector remain either closed or operational with limited hours. Substantial delays are also expected for commercial traffic (either inbound or outbound) due to the shortage of CBP personnel. Per CBP sources, 200,000+ illegal immigrants have been processed into the U.S. during the month of December alone.
CO: The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for office, removing him from the ballot of the 2024 Presidential election. Following this judgement, both Maine and California are also exploring similar options to ban Trump from the ballot in their states. AC: This is almost certainly a political move that under normal circumstances would not stand up to an appeal.
-Analyst Comments-
Consideration must be given to the follow-on effects in the event that the CO judgement is allowed to stand. As other states are also entertaining the idea of banning Trump from the ballot, flashpoints will emerge as long-standing legal precedents are shattered by politically motivated judicial rulings.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z December 22, 2023
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ICOD: 213022Z DEC 23
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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN RED SEA. DOMESTIC U.S. POLITICS REMAINS TUMULTUOUS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Tensions remain between the allies forming a maritime protection force in the Red Sea. Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is the multi-national Task Force being led by the U.S. Navy to provide security for ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. France, having initially agreed to take part and commit forces, has broken from the Task Force reportedly due to poor leadership and lack of organization. France will only be providing maritime security for French-flagged ships ATT. AC: This crisis has not only highlighted leadership problems within the U.S. DoD, but also the enduring problems within the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program. The LCS vessels produced in this program were designed from the keel up with this exact mission in mind, but following decades of scandal, very few of them are functional. So far, only traditional Aegis support (via DDGs and CGs) has provided protection for vessels in the Red Sea. However, as OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has not really gotten underway yet, the level of support the US Navy can provide in the region is not clear. Commercial shipping companies, either unwilling to wait for the US Navy to coordinate defenses, or lacking faith in this operation altogether, have continued to re-route ships around the Cape of Good Hope.
-Homefront-
USA: The recent scandal surrounding the removal of candidates from primary ballots has widened. Following the removal of Donald Trump from Colorado’s Republican primary ballot, several conservative-majority states have threatened to remove Joe Biden from their ballots. Several Democrat-run states have already removed Democrat candidates from their ballots, only allowing one candidate (Joe Biden) to run in their primary elections.
New York: A propane truck crashed into a railroad bridge in Glenville, resulting in a large explosion and subsequent fire. The driver remains hospitalized for severe burns. Initial reporting indicates the truck may have been over height for the bridge it was passing under.
-Analyst Comments-
It is difficult to determine how the situation will shake out regarding ballots. Right now, there is a lot of talk, but few actual documents to examine to arrive at a definitive analysis. It is not uncommon for state-level party leadership to ban certain candidates from running under their own party, but this year the number of Democrat-run states that have only allowed Biden to run under their banner seems higher. Likewise, the removal (or blocking in some way) of Republican candidates from running due to eligibility being removed via a Supreme Court decision is unheard of. The potential for divisions between states (and more importantly, state agencies) could lead to more serious flashpoints than standard civil unrest.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1900Z December 23, 2023
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DTG: 190023Z DEC 23
ICOD: 180023Z DEC 23
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BLUF: MARITIME ATTACKS EXPAND TO INDIAN OCEAN. SPAIN, ITALY LEAVE RED SEA TF.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Indian Ocean: The M/V CHEM PLUTO was attacked with a kamikaze drone in the northern Indian Ocean, approximately 200 NM SW of Gujarat, India. AC: Though no one has yet claimed responsibility for this attack, this matches the typical attack profile of Iran, who has a history of conducting similar attacks in the same area.
Red Sea/HOA: Italy and Spain have followed France in leaving the US-lead maritime security coalition OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN. Both Spain and Italy have left this coalition due to the refusal to place their ships under US command. Some nations have claimed that they will be supporting the mission, but have pledged no naval support. Per the latest press releases, the Netherlands will be sending two staff officers, and Denmark will be sending one staff officer. Australia will be sending 11 staff officers, but no ships ATT. The U.K. has pledged to commit one ship (the HMS DIAMOND, already in theatre) to the operation.
-Analyst Comments-
This operation has (in effect) collapsed before it even began. The U.S. Navy does not need a coalition to provide maritime security, but the explicit lack of cooperation from allies speaks volumes on the diplomatic front. Since the dawn of naval warfare, projecting power around the globe via maritime supremacy has been a strong indicator of a nation’s standing in the world. If the U.S. has lost support for one for one of the simplest naval operations that is doctrinally possible (counter-piracy and missile defense against a non-state actor), this does not bode well for the U.S. Navy or for the United States’ standing in the world. This also highlights the issues of naval command that would be huge vulnerabilities in the event that conflict breaks out in the South China Sea. If the strongest naval force in human history cannot reliably defend unarmed merchant vessels, and leads the Task Force so poorly that allied naval powers publicly don’t want to be a part of it, there is little chance for success in a conflict that involves a near-peer threat.
Strategically, it is possible that the U.S. intends to launch an offensive operation against Yemen and/or Iran. After all, the US Navy has already demonstrated that, despite best efforts (and outstanding work on the part of the DDG crews so far) missile defense is challenging even under the best of conditions. As such, the U.S. is probably planning operations to strike targets within Yemen to ease the pressure on defensive efforts. However, even though DoD leadership has financial interest in Raytheon (the supplier for most of the munitions used by the Navy so far), the sheer lack of production capacity has cast doubts on what the DoD’s actual plan is. Following the Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza, US weapons stockpiles are at an all time low, and it’s highly likely that the DoD simply doesn’t have the munitions to launch a major offensive campaign. If OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is really a cover for a more offensive effort, this would explain major allies parting with the plan, as no major nationstate has the desire to become entangled in yet another war that even the U.S. can’t pay for. Though it is costing up to $2 million per missile to shoot down Yemeni missiles/drones, other nations may see this as vastly cheaper than launching a major military campaign.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z December 24, 2023
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DTG: 233024Z DEC 23
ICOD: 223024Z DEC 23
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BLUF: SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO TOWN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Santa has departed the North Pole, and has begun his yearly journey around the world. A U.S. military radar site in Greenland first picked up Santa’s sleigh a few minutes after take off. Just a few moments later, personnel at the arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway were able to see the red light of Rudolph’s nose as Santa flew overhead.
Owing to the tremendous speed at which Santa travels are various technological improvements that have been made to his sleigh this year. The lead Elf team in charge of maintenance and northern transportation has confirmed that new hypersonic upgrades have improved Santa’s sleigh, allowing him to reach speeds higher than before.
If you want to track Santa’s sleigh in real time, NORAD maintains a tracking website at: www.noradsanta.org.
Analyst Comments: Regular Wire reporting will continue on December 27th, pending any emergency issues. Thank you all for your support this year, and we hope that peace can prevail in the new year. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1700Z December 27, 2023
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BLUF: MAERSK ALLEGEDLY RESUMES SHIPPING IN RED SEA. U.S. BORDER CRISIS DEEPENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Central America: Drought conditions in Panama create worst delays seen yet for ships transiting the Panama Canal. AC: As a reminder, the drought in Panama has been ongoing for months, causing delays for all ships transiting the choke point. Ironically, the region saw better-than-expected rainfall during November, which has alleviated the problems significantly. However, over the past few days the lake that feeds fresh water to the locks systems essential for the transit of ships has been too low, causing more delays. In the context of global shipping routes feeling strain, this is important to note as the cost increases incurred by shipping companies will be passed on to the consumer.
Red Sea/HOA: US CENTCOM announced that the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down twelve drones, three ASCMs, and two LACMs yesterday. These engagements come as Maersk announces the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.
AC: It is unclear as to if Maersk will actually be resuming shipping through the region. Ships have been scheduled to make the transit over the coming weeks, but doctrinally speaking, the adversary always gets a vote in future plans. Yemen has demonstrated their ability to target ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, even with substantial U.S. Navy protection. If commercial ships begin to resume normal operations in the Red Sea, we will see an increase in targeting as Yemen has learned valuable Anti-Shipping combat experience over the past few weeks.
Gaza/Israel: The war continues as before. Israeli operations have expanded in Gaza as the fighting becomes even more brutal on both sides. Attacks from Hezbollah have intensified in the north as rocket attacks become more numerous and frequent. Hezbollah has also demonstrated the ability to regularly target locations deep inside Israel. AC: Though details are sketchy at best, some sources indicate that Hezbollah has targeted Iron Dome missile defense sites in Capri with laser-guided munitions. If these reports are true, the munitions in question are probably Basir 155mm artillery shells of likely Iranian origin (which itself is a copy of the old Soviet 2K25 Krasnopol system). Though unconfirmed reporting is not definitive by any means, if this is true this would be both a substantial escalation of the conflict in the north, and also likely the first operational test (by Hezbollah) of these advanced weapons systems.
-Homefront-
USA: Border crisis deepens following another surge of illegal immigrants during the Christmas holiday weekend. Some media outlets are reporting (via confidential sources) that around 30,000 illegals were detained over the weekend. AC: Though independent verification is not possible yet, these numbers are in line with the severity of the latest illegal immigrant surge. As a reminder, almost all of these “detentions” and “apprehensions” are temporary and do not result in immediate deportation, but rather transportation deeper into America’s interior.
Analyst Comments: The conflict in the Red Sea is the epitome of an age-old idea within the field of insurgency. The Houthis only have to be lucky once, the U.S. Navy has to be lucky every single time. If the U.S. Navy (and other coalition vessels) cannot provide reliable protection for commercial vessels, the global maritime community will eventually respond. Even the highly-manipulated financial markets (which have not responded appropriately to this crisis) cannot remain grounded in fantasy forever. In due time, missile shortages are going to catch up with the U.S. Navy…shortages that are not present in Yemen.

Though obviously not comparable to actual combat, the war on the information front remains intense with regards to conflict in the Middle East. Even the most carefully-worded new reports are no longer enough to prevent censorship and the loss of one’s livelihood, resulting in the cessation of reporting for many people who realize nothing can be done to stop what is happening. Conversely, pro-Palestinian demonstrations have intensified in Europe and the United States in direct response to events in Gaza, causing civil unrest concerns in most major U.S. cities. In the U.K. specifically, many of the issues caused by the conflict in Gaza have been conflated with immigration issues as most of the pro-Palestine demonstrations have been attended largely by immigrants.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 28, 2023
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DTG: 220028Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210028Z DEC 23
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BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN RED SEA. U.S. REBUILDS AIRFIELD IN PACIFIC, DRAWING IRE OF CHINA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: As maritime shipping begins to resume (to some degree) through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, interesting AIS transponder data has been noted by observers. In the metadata broadcast by a ship’s AIS transponder, short messages are being transmitted to dissuade targeting by Yemen. Over the past couple of weeks, it was common to see ships inserting the text “ARMED GUARDS ONBOARD” in the data transmitted by their transponder. Now, several ships have been noted to change this to “NO CONTACT ISRAEL” as a method of conveying that their ship has no affiliation with Israel. AC: Though how successful this will be is not known, it is interesting to note as this is yet another overt demonstration of the lack of confidence in the protection provided by naval vessels. As a reminder, Yemeni forces have ordered all ships to leave their AIS transponders on, whereas some reports indicate vessels being urged by various authorities to turn off their transponders when transiting the Red Sea to avoid targeting. This complicates efforts to identify the true number of vessels transiting the choke point. So far, many maritime shipping companies appear to be “splitting the difference” and mitigating risk by sending some ships through the Red Sea, and others around the Cape.
South Pacific: Chinese officials have urged defense forces to remain on “high alert” over the coming months, in response to U.S. strategic moves in the region. The U.S. is currently refurbishing an old WWII airbase on Tinian Island, a sparsely populated island approximately 90 NM north of Guam. The U.S. airbase on this island was abandoned in 1947, and recently efforts have been undertaken to reclaim the airfield from the jungle so as to serve as another critical staging base for aircraft in the event of a war in the South Pacific.
Analyst Comments: Reclaiming Tinian Island has historical implications as well, which are probably the reasoning behind Chinese apprehension (in addition to the obvious military reasons). Tinian Island was the base from which the 509th Composite Group was stationed, and the point of departure for the B-29 Superfortresses which dropped the atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Reclaiming this airfield not only reactivates a vital base of operations, but also sends a clear message to the entire South Pacific region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 29, 2023
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DTG: 220029Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210029Z DEC 23
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BLUF: USS BATAAN TRANSITS INTO MED. ELECTORAL INFLUENCING OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN THE U.S.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: The USS BATAAN and USS CARTER HALL have transited north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, and will reform as a full ARG. As a reminder, these vessels were deployed for counter-piracy operations in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in direct response to Yemeni targeting. AC: These vessels, while technically not operating as a full ARG, were in effect acting as such over the past few weeks. As the ARG is one of the more flexible unit structures in the military, one of the main standard missions for U.S. Marines onboard these vessels is to provide onboard security teams for merchant vessels passing through high-risk areas, if the situation calls for it. This is a long-standing mission set, and one that even China has routinely employed themselves for over a decade as part of their enduring counter-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. The departure of the BATAAN rules this out as a COA for countering the threats in the region. The only security missions provided by the U.S. Navy during this crisis have involved missile defense.
-Homefront-
USA: Events regarding ballots continue as the Maine Secretary of State unilaterally removes Trump from their state’s primary ballot. This follows Colorado re-admitting Trump to their state’s primary ballot. Several conservative-led states have threatened to remove Biden from their state’s primary ballots, though it is not yet clear as to how any of these moves will actually work out.
Analyst Comments: At the risk of laying unnecessary criticism on the forces involved, the USS BATAAN leaving theatre at a high-risk juncture does not fit with the U.S. Navy’s mission of power projection and deterrence, and provides a morale boost for Yemeni forces, who have already interpreted this move as both a victory, and as confirmation that the U.S. will not be conducting any amphibious operations within Yemen. Allowing credit where credit is due, the fleet of DDGs still O/S in the region continue to engage Yemeni drones and cruise missiles.
In the U.S. electoral shenanigans will likely continue well into the new year, but at the moment it’s not possible to determine how this situation will shake out. Until concrete actions are undertaken, the claims being made are just talk. Virtually no one is under the impression that legitimacy will be a factor in the 2024 election season, but the recent battles regarding primary ballots will likely be used as a jumping off point for more serious actions later in the year.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 30, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220030Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210030Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN EUROPE. SHIPPING REMAINS STAGNANT IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Local authorities in many nations have substantially increased their threat postures in response to threats to New Year’s Eve events. Police in Paris have established significant security protocols as pro-Palestine demonstrations are expected to disrupt public gatherings. Similar efforts are underway in Germany as local authorities claim to have received credible threats to the Cologne Cathedral on New Year’s Eve. In London today local demonstrations deteriorated into civil unrest. AC: Throughout the U.K. much of the unrest seen is no longer accurately described as strictly “pro-Palestinian”. Many of the riots do not have the flavor of being affiliated with the Palestinian cause. For instance, the riots in London today were attended by Eritrean, Ethiopian, and Somali illegal immigrants, who began fighting amongst each other regarding recent political events in these nations.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemen continues to target commercial vessels allegedly affiliated with Israel. The U.S. Navy continues to report daily interceptions of cruise missiles and drones. As some vessels have possibly turned off their AIS transponders for security purposes, it’s difficult to determine how many vessels are indeed transiting the Red Sea again. However, it is clear that traffic through the region has not returned to normal levels.
Analyst Comments:
Though very little information remains public regarding specific threats, the recent history of disruptions of Christmas events throughout western Europe and the U.S. corroborates the theory that New Year’s celebrations will also be targets for demonstrations which may turn violent. As western nations import immigrants at astonishing rates, the importation of far-flung conflicts is inevitable. As such, categorizing everything from peaceful protests to deliberate insurgent attacks is not easy. At a minimum, increased police presence is expected at most public events due to the wildly variable threat environment.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z January 01, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220001Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210001Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. YEMENI ATTACK BOATS SUNK IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Pacific: Over two dozen earthquakes shook the western prefectures of Japan this morning. Some of these earthquakes reached an estimated magnitude of 7.5-7.6, triggering tsunami warnings and evacuation notices for much of Japan’s west coast. So far, the tsunami threat has appeared to be low, with waves only reaching a few feet higher than normal tides.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. Navy vessels intensifies. Yesterday the Maersk-owned M/V HANGZHOU reported being struck with a cruise missile. Following the attack, the vessel was attacked by Yemeni forces in four small boats. The embarked security team was successful in repelling boarders. Helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and the USS GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress calls from the HANGZHOU, and were fired upon by the occupants of the attacking vessels. U.S. forces returned fire, killing the crew and sinking three of the four attacking vessels.
Middle East: Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria intensify in response to the war in Gaza. Various types of weapons have been employed in these recent attacks, ranging from conventional Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons such as rockets and mortars to advanced kamikaze drones. AC: Word on the severity of these attacks is hard to come by as CENTCOM has not been entirely forthcoming with damage reports, for obvious Operational Security (OPSEC) reasons. However, as more sophisticated (and larger) munitions begin to be used in significant numbers, the threats posed to most U.S. military bases in the Middle East will remain elevated.
Europe: Queen Margrethe II of Denmark has unexpectedly announced that she will abdicate the throne in January, passing on the seat of monarchy to her son Crown Prince Frederik (who will become King Frederik X).
Analyst Comments:
Crown Prince Frederik has established himself as one of Denmark’s leading advocates on climate issues. Queen Margrethe has enjoyed the highest popularity of any monarch in Europe during the last several decades (second only, perhaps, to Queen Elizabeth II). Conversely, Crown Prince Frederik has not enjoyed the widespread support of the Danish people, possessing none of the diplomatic qualities of his mother. This sharp contrast in personalities and leadership style, at a time when Europe is desperate for any form of half-way decent leadership, combined with the surprising circumstances of the abdication, will likely leave yet another nation in Europe on shaky ground moving into the new year.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z January 02, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220002Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210002Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: NEW YEARS VBIED ATTACK STRIKES ROCHESTER, NY. IRAN INCREASES PRESENCE PATROLS IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Diplomatic tensions escalate as an Iranian warship transits into the Red Sea in response to the sinking of Houthi boats. AC: As Iranian forces become more actively involved in the region, the nomenclature of Iranian vessels will become confusing as Iranian Naval organization is like none other. The IRIS ALBORZ (72) is classified by Iran to be a Frigate, but in international terms is really more characteristic of a Destroyer (DD), or a Guided-Missile Destroyer (DDG), depending on the upgrades present onboard. This vessel has been in the area for weeks, but has taken a more direct patrolling profile following the escalation of combat operations in theater. It is also important to note that Iran has strategically placed several intelligence collection vessels in the region, who the U.S. has accused of providing targeting information to Yemen.
-HomeFront-
NY: An attempted VBIED attack was conducted at the Kodiak Center in Rochester on New Year’s Eve. Details are extremely sketchy, but initial reporting indicates that a man attempted to carry out a possible Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack on the crowd gathered in attendance of a holiday concert at the venue, timing the attack for the end of the concert so as to achieve maximum success. Allegedly, the attacker (who has been identified as Michael Avery) filled a rental vehicle with over a dozen containers of gasoline and attempted to conduct a vehicle-ramming attack at the entrance of the theater. An Uber driver (unaware of this plot) was inadvertently involved in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) with the assailant as he made his attack run, which ignited the gasoline prematurely. FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) personnel have been observed investigating the hotel room where the attacker staged before the attack, suggesting more deliberate planning was involved in this attack. A suicide note was allegedly found at this location.
So far, even the casualty count has been difficult to determine as official statements have not been forthcoming with information. However, piecing together what information is public, two people (possibly the people in the Uber vehicle) were killed, and the assailant also reportedly died of burns at a local hospital shortly after the attack. Three people were also injured in the attack.
Analyst Comments:
Details regarding the Rochester VBIED attack are few and far between as local authorities have likely been issued orders to conceal details of the investigation as it has become a cultural standard to conceal the mere occurrence of terror attacks from the general public. As such, eyewitness reports from locals are really the only sources for information. Much like the Rainbow Bridge Incident from a few weeks ago (the official story of which still has many intelligence gaps, and is generally dubious in nature), follow-on information will likely not be made public. There are additional details that may indicate that this incident was not isolated, and may have involved other crimes in the general vicinity before the attack. However, details are again too unreliable for any concrete links to be made at this time.
However, much operational intelligence can still be gained from this incident. The attacker chose a soft target comprised of large groups of unarmed people, in a location where he knew vehicle barriers would not be emplaced. This event will largely be out of the public consciousness within a week, but heightened situational awareness is recommended moving forward into the new year, especially in public venues that host large gatherings of unarmed people.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z January 03, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220003Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210003Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT INTESIFIES FOLLOWING TERROR ATTACK IN IRAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Tensions escalate throughout the region in response to multiple developing events. In Iran, a terror attack kills hundreds of citizens as multiple explosions occur at a memorial ceremony at Qassem Soleimani's gravesite in Kerman. Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased in severity, and U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea have experienced more deliberate targeting by Yemeni forces over the past few days. Skirmishes along the Lebanese border with Israel, already having intensified over the past few days, were renewed in earnest following the attack in Iran. Heavy Hezbollah rocket attacks have targeted locations deep inside Israel, and fighting has broken out at border checkpoints and observation posts along the Lebanese border. AC: It is too soon to tell if this is a true, deliberate widening of the war, or if this is a limited/temporary response to the attack in Iran.
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Naval forces continue to intercept Yemeni cruise missiles, which have been targeting both U.S. Navy ships, and the few ships transiting the Red Sea. Despite statements from shipping companies confirming the resumption of normal operations, very little commercial traffic is actually transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: German farmers plan a nationwide protest for January 8th. This demonstration is looking to be one of the largest in Europe’s recent history as multiple rail worker and trucking unions team up with agricultural associations to protest in opposition to several taxation issues.
Analyst Comments:
Always considering the fact that ships can turn off their AIS transponders, it’s still very clear that almost all commercial shipping is avoiding the Red Sea. For maritime safety reasons (and in order to transit the Suez Canal) ships have to turn on their transponders at some point in their journey. If ships were “disappearing” from tracking websites as they approach Yemen, then “reappearing” suddenly in the northern Red Sea, this would be a strong indicator of this tactic being used. After more than two weeks of crisis this does not appear to be the case, and almost all traffic that would be normally transiting the Red Sea, is now taking the longer route around Africa. Maritime shipping companies may commit to sending a handful of vessels through the Red Sea to mislead shareholders and keep up the pretenses that everything is fine, but sooner or later the impossibility of concealing merchant shipping realities will be acknowledged, almost certainly in the form of higher shipping costs. The follow-on effects of which will be felt by the average consumer.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 04, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223004Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213004Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MERCHANT SHIP HIJACKED IN ARABIAN SEA. SOME EPSTEIN DOCS RELEASED.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: An unidentified ship has reported being boarded by unknown assailants in the Arabian Sea. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center has reported the receipt of a distress call from the vessel, and that the crew has taken refuge in the ship’s Citadel (safe room). Due to the location of the hijacking (almost 500 NM east of Somalia), it’s possible that this is a standard piracy attempt not affiliated with Yemen. However, very few details are public at the moment.
Europe: Protests against the ruling Socialist party continue in Spain. Extremely widespread protests have been underway in Spain for almost two months, beginning in earnest after the attempted assassination of the Vox party leader on Nov 9. AC: In the context of the upcoming protests in Germany, it is important to remember the protests already underway throughout Europe. Despite millions of people taking part in demonstrations daily, most media outlets have not covered these protests in Spain.
-HomeFront-
USA: A number of court documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein network have been released to the public.
Analyst Comments:
As some of the Epstein documents flood social media, care must be taken to be observant of second and third order effects, which remain largely unknown. As important as it is for the average citizen to be aware of these details (if they aren’t already fully aware of the situation), equally as important is to not let these revelations distract from more operationally valuable information. On the one hand, it is unlikely that exceptionally powerful people would not be able to influence the release of these documents. On the other hand, in the event that truly “smoking-gun” information is released regarding Epstein’s clients, the potential for deception operations (including false-flags) to be carried out is high.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1830Z January 05, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183005Z JAN 24
ICOD: 173005Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: INDIA RESCUES HIJACKED SHIP. TENSIONS ESCALATE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Indian Naval forces conducted rescue operations onboard a hijacked vessel in the Arabian Sea. The vessel, now identified as the M/V LILA NORFOLK, was hijacked two days ago by unknown assailants. Upon boarding, Indian forces discovered that the hijackers had fled prior to the counterpiracy operation.
In the Red Sea, economic impacts to western shipping companies continue to be felt. Some estimates indicate that some companies have quadrupled their normal shipping rates in response to the fuel, maintenance, and administrative costs resulting from shifting to longer routes. Additionally, the surge of maritime traffic to the Cape Route has caused congestion at many ports in Africa, as most of the port facilities now required for refueling were not built to handle the capacity now expected of them. AC: As a reminder, most Chinese, Russian, and Iranian shipping through the region remains unhindered; it is only the primarily western-based shipping that is being impacted by Yemeni targeting.
Far East: Tensions escalate between North and South Korea in response to recent moves by both sides. A few weeks ago, Kim Jong Un signaled a radical shift in DPRK policy, namely the “impossibility” of Korean reunification. The idea of reunification has been removed from North Korean propaganda websites, confirming the shift in rhetoric. As the idea of reunification has been the bedrock of DPRK rhetoric for decades (as evidenced by the famous Arch of Reunification monument, among countless others), this change has caused diplomatic tensions between the North and South.
Yesterday, the diplomatic tensions transitioned into kinetic action, as DPRK forces conducted military exercises near South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. The live-fire “exercises” were extremely close to the island, prompting evacuations. ROK forces have responded in kind, conducting military exercises in the same area.
-HomeFront-
SD: A B-1B Lancer strategic bomber crashed upon landing at Ellsworth Air Force Base at approximately 5:30 pm (local time) yesterday evening. All four crew members safely ejected from the aircraft. Initial reporting indicates the cause for the accident may have been due to weather conditions.
Analyst Comments:
Though the tensions on the Korean peninsula may seem to be a dire situation, tit-for-tat artillery exercises have been a mainstay of the Korean conflict for decades. So far, neither the North nor the South have fired into each other’s territory, but both have conducted provocation actions in the diplomatically ambiguous areas along the border. However, as tensions have been rising on the Korean peninsula for months, it is possible that accidents or diplomatic mistakes could cascade into creating more serious problems throughout the region.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1630Z January 06, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163006Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153006Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MAERSK AGAIN SUSPENDS SHIPPING IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Following the successful attack on the M/V HANGZHOU last week, Maersk announced a temporary pause of shipping through the Red Sea. Overnight, Maersk has announced an indefinite extension to the shipping pause in response to the realization that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not effective, despite best efforts.
AC: This strongly indicates what has been obvious for several days; that Maersk never seriously committed to returning traffic to the Red Sea, and instead gaslit investors into thinking that everything was fine. The fact that one of their first ships to resume travel was successfully struck with a cruise missile also indicates that naval forces in the region are not capable of providing enough missile defense to make travel viable for commercial shipping. Though details are hard to verify, Amazon, Walmart, and IKEA are among the companies already reportedly experiencing supply shortages due to the logistical problems created by the Red Sea Crisis.
-HomeFront-
USA: SECDEF Lloyd Austin has been hospitalized since Monday following alleged complications from an unknown elective procedure. This was disclosed to the public last night, approximately four days after the event first occurred. No further details are available at this time.
CA: Alaskan Airlines Flight 1282 bound for Ontario, California experienced an uncontrolled depressurization incident when one of the aircraft doors blew out mid-flight. No word yet on any passenger injuries.
Analyst Comments:
Though rapid depressurization incidents are rare, this incident is even more concerning as the aircraft was a Boeing 737-9 MAX, and is one of the newer aircraft in Alaska’s fleet. In response to this high-profile incident, Alaska has announced the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 aircraft in their fleet. As a reminder, Boeing’s 737 MAX program has been fraught with controversy over the past 2-3 years following multiple fatal crashes (most of which involved the new MCAS system, and not structural integrity issues). In November of 2020, the FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to issue certificates of airworthiness for this model of aircraft. Boeing was also fined by the FAA in 2021 for “exerting undue pressure” on aircraft inspectors.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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