RR The Wire 2200Z January 01, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220001Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210001Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. YEMENI ATTACK BOATS SUNK IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Pacific: Over two dozen earthquakes shook the western prefectures of Japan this morning. Some of these earthquakes reached an estimated magnitude of 7.5-7.6, triggering tsunami warnings and evacuation notices for much of Japan’s west coast. So far, the tsunami threat has appeared to be low, with waves only reaching a few feet higher than normal tides.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. Navy vessels intensifies. Yesterday the Maersk-owned M/V HANGZHOU reported being struck with a cruise missile. Following the attack, the vessel was attacked by Yemeni forces in four small boats. The embarked security team was successful in repelling boarders. Helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and the USS GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress calls from the HANGZHOU, and were fired upon by the occupants of the attacking vessels. U.S. forces returned fire, killing the crew and sinking three of the four attacking vessels.
Middle East: Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria intensify in response to the war in Gaza. Various types of weapons have been employed in these recent attacks, ranging from conventional Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons such as rockets and mortars to advanced kamikaze drones. AC: Word on the severity of these attacks is hard to come by as CENTCOM has not been entirely forthcoming with damage reports, for obvious Operational Security (OPSEC) reasons. However, as more sophisticated (and larger) munitions begin to be used in significant numbers, the threats posed to most U.S. military bases in the Middle East will remain elevated.
Europe: Queen Margrethe II of Denmark has unexpectedly announced that she will abdicate the throne in January, passing on the seat of monarchy to her son Crown Prince Frederik (who will become King Frederik X).
Analyst Comments:
Crown Prince Frederik has established himself as one of Denmark’s leading advocates on climate issues. Queen Margrethe has enjoyed the highest popularity of any monarch in Europe during the last several decades (second only, perhaps, to Queen Elizabeth II). Conversely, Crown Prince Frederik has not enjoyed the widespread support of the Danish people, possessing none of the diplomatic qualities of his mother. This sharp contrast in personalities and leadership style, at a time when Europe is desperate for any form of half-way decent leadership, combined with the surprising circumstances of the abdication, will likely leave yet another nation in Europe on shaky ground moving into the new year.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220001Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210001Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. YEMENI ATTACK BOATS SUNK IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Pacific: Over two dozen earthquakes shook the western prefectures of Japan this morning. Some of these earthquakes reached an estimated magnitude of 7.5-7.6, triggering tsunami warnings and evacuation notices for much of Japan’s west coast. So far, the tsunami threat has appeared to be low, with waves only reaching a few feet higher than normal tides.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. Navy vessels intensifies. Yesterday the Maersk-owned M/V HANGZHOU reported being struck with a cruise missile. Following the attack, the vessel was attacked by Yemeni forces in four small boats. The embarked security team was successful in repelling boarders. Helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and the USS GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress calls from the HANGZHOU, and were fired upon by the occupants of the attacking vessels. U.S. forces returned fire, killing the crew and sinking three of the four attacking vessels.
Middle East: Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria intensify in response to the war in Gaza. Various types of weapons have been employed in these recent attacks, ranging from conventional Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons such as rockets and mortars to advanced kamikaze drones. AC: Word on the severity of these attacks is hard to come by as CENTCOM has not been entirely forthcoming with damage reports, for obvious Operational Security (OPSEC) reasons. However, as more sophisticated (and larger) munitions begin to be used in significant numbers, the threats posed to most U.S. military bases in the Middle East will remain elevated.
Europe: Queen Margrethe II of Denmark has unexpectedly announced that she will abdicate the throne in January, passing on the seat of monarchy to her son Crown Prince Frederik (who will become King Frederik X).
Analyst Comments:
Crown Prince Frederik has established himself as one of Denmark’s leading advocates on climate issues. Queen Margrethe has enjoyed the highest popularity of any monarch in Europe during the last several decades (second only, perhaps, to Queen Elizabeth II). Conversely, Crown Prince Frederik has not enjoyed the widespread support of the Danish people, possessing none of the diplomatic qualities of his mother. This sharp contrast in personalities and leadership style, at a time when Europe is desperate for any form of half-way decent leadership, combined with the surprising circumstances of the abdication, will likely leave yet another nation in Europe on shaky ground moving into the new year.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
👍100🫡68🌭10❤7🙏3🍌1👻1👾1
RR The Wire 2200Z January 02, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220002Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210002Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: NEW YEARS VBIED ATTACK STRIKES ROCHESTER, NY. IRAN INCREASES PRESENCE PATROLS IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Diplomatic tensions escalate as an Iranian warship transits into the Red Sea in response to the sinking of Houthi boats. AC: As Iranian forces become more actively involved in the region, the nomenclature of Iranian vessels will become confusing as Iranian Naval organization is like none other. The IRIS ALBORZ (72) is classified by Iran to be a Frigate, but in international terms is really more characteristic of a Destroyer (DD), or a Guided-Missile Destroyer (DDG), depending on the upgrades present onboard. This vessel has been in the area for weeks, but has taken a more direct patrolling profile following the escalation of combat operations in theater. It is also important to note that Iran has strategically placed several intelligence collection vessels in the region, who the U.S. has accused of providing targeting information to Yemen.
-HomeFront-
NY: An attempted VBIED attack was conducted at the Kodiak Center in Rochester on New Year’s Eve. Details are extremely sketchy, but initial reporting indicates that a man attempted to carry out a possible Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack on the crowd gathered in attendance of a holiday concert at the venue, timing the attack for the end of the concert so as to achieve maximum success. Allegedly, the attacker (who has been identified as Michael Avery) filled a rental vehicle with over a dozen containers of gasoline and attempted to conduct a vehicle-ramming attack at the entrance of the theater. An Uber driver (unaware of this plot) was inadvertently involved in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) with the assailant as he made his attack run, which ignited the gasoline prematurely. FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) personnel have been observed investigating the hotel room where the attacker staged before the attack, suggesting more deliberate planning was involved in this attack. A suicide note was allegedly found at this location.
So far, even the casualty count has been difficult to determine as official statements have not been forthcoming with information. However, piecing together what information is public, two people (possibly the people in the Uber vehicle) were killed, and the assailant also reportedly died of burns at a local hospital shortly after the attack. Three people were also injured in the attack.
Analyst Comments:
Details regarding the Rochester VBIED attack are few and far between as local authorities have likely been issued orders to conceal details of the investigation as it has become a cultural standard to conceal the mere occurrence of terror attacks from the general public. As such, eyewitness reports from locals are really the only sources for information. Much like the Rainbow Bridge Incident from a few weeks ago (the official story of which still has many intelligence gaps, and is generally dubious in nature), follow-on information will likely not be made public. There are additional details that may indicate that this incident was not isolated, and may have involved other crimes in the general vicinity before the attack. However, details are again too unreliable for any concrete links to be made at this time.
However, much operational intelligence can still be gained from this incident. The attacker chose a soft target comprised of large groups of unarmed people, in a location where he knew vehicle barriers would not be emplaced. This event will largely be out of the public consciousness within a week, but heightened situational awareness is recommended moving forward into the new year, especially in public venues that host large gatherings of unarmed people.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220002Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210002Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: NEW YEARS VBIED ATTACK STRIKES ROCHESTER, NY. IRAN INCREASES PRESENCE PATROLS IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Diplomatic tensions escalate as an Iranian warship transits into the Red Sea in response to the sinking of Houthi boats. AC: As Iranian forces become more actively involved in the region, the nomenclature of Iranian vessels will become confusing as Iranian Naval organization is like none other. The IRIS ALBORZ (72) is classified by Iran to be a Frigate, but in international terms is really more characteristic of a Destroyer (DD), or a Guided-Missile Destroyer (DDG), depending on the upgrades present onboard. This vessel has been in the area for weeks, but has taken a more direct patrolling profile following the escalation of combat operations in theater. It is also important to note that Iran has strategically placed several intelligence collection vessels in the region, who the U.S. has accused of providing targeting information to Yemen.
-HomeFront-
NY: An attempted VBIED attack was conducted at the Kodiak Center in Rochester on New Year’s Eve. Details are extremely sketchy, but initial reporting indicates that a man attempted to carry out a possible Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack on the crowd gathered in attendance of a holiday concert at the venue, timing the attack for the end of the concert so as to achieve maximum success. Allegedly, the attacker (who has been identified as Michael Avery) filled a rental vehicle with over a dozen containers of gasoline and attempted to conduct a vehicle-ramming attack at the entrance of the theater. An Uber driver (unaware of this plot) was inadvertently involved in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) with the assailant as he made his attack run, which ignited the gasoline prematurely. FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) personnel have been observed investigating the hotel room where the attacker staged before the attack, suggesting more deliberate planning was involved in this attack. A suicide note was allegedly found at this location.
So far, even the casualty count has been difficult to determine as official statements have not been forthcoming with information. However, piecing together what information is public, two people (possibly the people in the Uber vehicle) were killed, and the assailant also reportedly died of burns at a local hospital shortly after the attack. Three people were also injured in the attack.
Analyst Comments:
Details regarding the Rochester VBIED attack are few and far between as local authorities have likely been issued orders to conceal details of the investigation as it has become a cultural standard to conceal the mere occurrence of terror attacks from the general public. As such, eyewitness reports from locals are really the only sources for information. Much like the Rainbow Bridge Incident from a few weeks ago (the official story of which still has many intelligence gaps, and is generally dubious in nature), follow-on information will likely not be made public. There are additional details that may indicate that this incident was not isolated, and may have involved other crimes in the general vicinity before the attack. However, details are again too unreliable for any concrete links to be made at this time.
However, much operational intelligence can still be gained from this incident. The attacker chose a soft target comprised of large groups of unarmed people, in a location where he knew vehicle barriers would not be emplaced. This event will largely be out of the public consciousness within a week, but heightened situational awareness is recommended moving forward into the new year, especially in public venues that host large gatherings of unarmed people.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
👍98🫡68🌭9❤8🔥4🍌2🗿1
RR The Wire 2200Z January 03, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220003Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210003Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT INTESIFIES FOLLOWING TERROR ATTACK IN IRAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Tensions escalate throughout the region in response to multiple developing events. In Iran, a terror attack kills hundreds of citizens as multiple explosions occur at a memorial ceremony at Qassem Soleimani's gravesite in Kerman. Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased in severity, and U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea have experienced more deliberate targeting by Yemeni forces over the past few days. Skirmishes along the Lebanese border with Israel, already having intensified over the past few days, were renewed in earnest following the attack in Iran. Heavy Hezbollah rocket attacks have targeted locations deep inside Israel, and fighting has broken out at border checkpoints and observation posts along the Lebanese border. AC: It is too soon to tell if this is a true, deliberate widening of the war, or if this is a limited/temporary response to the attack in Iran.
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Naval forces continue to intercept Yemeni cruise missiles, which have been targeting both U.S. Navy ships, and the few ships transiting the Red Sea. Despite statements from shipping companies confirming the resumption of normal operations, very little commercial traffic is actually transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: German farmers plan a nationwide protest for January 8th. This demonstration is looking to be one of the largest in Europe’s recent history as multiple rail worker and trucking unions team up with agricultural associations to protest in opposition to several taxation issues.
Analyst Comments:
Always considering the fact that ships can turn off their AIS transponders, it’s still very clear that almost all commercial shipping is avoiding the Red Sea. For maritime safety reasons (and in order to transit the Suez Canal) ships have to turn on their transponders at some point in their journey. If ships were “disappearing” from tracking websites as they approach Yemen, then “reappearing” suddenly in the northern Red Sea, this would be a strong indicator of this tactic being used. After more than two weeks of crisis this does not appear to be the case, and almost all traffic that would be normally transiting the Red Sea, is now taking the longer route around Africa. Maritime shipping companies may commit to sending a handful of vessels through the Red Sea to mislead shareholders and keep up the pretenses that everything is fine, but sooner or later the impossibility of concealing merchant shipping realities will be acknowledged, almost certainly in the form of higher shipping costs. The follow-on effects of which will be felt by the average consumer.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220003Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210003Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT INTESIFIES FOLLOWING TERROR ATTACK IN IRAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Tensions escalate throughout the region in response to multiple developing events. In Iran, a terror attack kills hundreds of citizens as multiple explosions occur at a memorial ceremony at Qassem Soleimani's gravesite in Kerman. Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased in severity, and U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea have experienced more deliberate targeting by Yemeni forces over the past few days. Skirmishes along the Lebanese border with Israel, already having intensified over the past few days, were renewed in earnest following the attack in Iran. Heavy Hezbollah rocket attacks have targeted locations deep inside Israel, and fighting has broken out at border checkpoints and observation posts along the Lebanese border. AC: It is too soon to tell if this is a true, deliberate widening of the war, or if this is a limited/temporary response to the attack in Iran.
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Naval forces continue to intercept Yemeni cruise missiles, which have been targeting both U.S. Navy ships, and the few ships transiting the Red Sea. Despite statements from shipping companies confirming the resumption of normal operations, very little commercial traffic is actually transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: German farmers plan a nationwide protest for January 8th. This demonstration is looking to be one of the largest in Europe’s recent history as multiple rail worker and trucking unions team up with agricultural associations to protest in opposition to several taxation issues.
Analyst Comments:
Always considering the fact that ships can turn off their AIS transponders, it’s still very clear that almost all commercial shipping is avoiding the Red Sea. For maritime safety reasons (and in order to transit the Suez Canal) ships have to turn on their transponders at some point in their journey. If ships were “disappearing” from tracking websites as they approach Yemen, then “reappearing” suddenly in the northern Red Sea, this would be a strong indicator of this tactic being used. After more than two weeks of crisis this does not appear to be the case, and almost all traffic that would be normally transiting the Red Sea, is now taking the longer route around Africa. Maritime shipping companies may commit to sending a handful of vessels through the Red Sea to mislead shareholders and keep up the pretenses that everything is fine, but sooner or later the impossibility of concealing merchant shipping realities will be acknowledged, almost certainly in the form of higher shipping costs. The follow-on effects of which will be felt by the average consumer.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
👍96🫡69🌭9❤6🔥6👻2🤬1🍌1
RR The Wire 2230Z January 04, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223004Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213004Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MERCHANT SHIP HIJACKED IN ARABIAN SEA. SOME EPSTEIN DOCS RELEASED.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: An unidentified ship has reported being boarded by unknown assailants in the Arabian Sea. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center has reported the receipt of a distress call from the vessel, and that the crew has taken refuge in the ship’s Citadel (safe room). Due to the location of the hijacking (almost 500 NM east of Somalia), it’s possible that this is a standard piracy attempt not affiliated with Yemen. However, very few details are public at the moment.
Europe: Protests against the ruling Socialist party continue in Spain. Extremely widespread protests have been underway in Spain for almost two months, beginning in earnest after the attempted assassination of the Vox party leader on Nov 9. AC: In the context of the upcoming protests in Germany, it is important to remember the protests already underway throughout Europe. Despite millions of people taking part in demonstrations daily, most media outlets have not covered these protests in Spain.
-HomeFront-
USA: A number of court documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein network have been released to the public.
Analyst Comments:
As some of the Epstein documents flood social media, care must be taken to be observant of second and third order effects, which remain largely unknown. As important as it is for the average citizen to be aware of these details (if they aren’t already fully aware of the situation), equally as important is to not let these revelations distract from more operationally valuable information. On the one hand, it is unlikely that exceptionally powerful people would not be able to influence the release of these documents. On the other hand, in the event that truly “smoking-gun” information is released regarding Epstein’s clients, the potential for deception operations (including false-flags) to be carried out is high.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223004Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213004Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MERCHANT SHIP HIJACKED IN ARABIAN SEA. SOME EPSTEIN DOCS RELEASED.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: An unidentified ship has reported being boarded by unknown assailants in the Arabian Sea. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center has reported the receipt of a distress call from the vessel, and that the crew has taken refuge in the ship’s Citadel (safe room). Due to the location of the hijacking (almost 500 NM east of Somalia), it’s possible that this is a standard piracy attempt not affiliated with Yemen. However, very few details are public at the moment.
Europe: Protests against the ruling Socialist party continue in Spain. Extremely widespread protests have been underway in Spain for almost two months, beginning in earnest after the attempted assassination of the Vox party leader on Nov 9. AC: In the context of the upcoming protests in Germany, it is important to remember the protests already underway throughout Europe. Despite millions of people taking part in demonstrations daily, most media outlets have not covered these protests in Spain.
-HomeFront-
USA: A number of court documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein network have been released to the public.
Analyst Comments:
As some of the Epstein documents flood social media, care must be taken to be observant of second and third order effects, which remain largely unknown. As important as it is for the average citizen to be aware of these details (if they aren’t already fully aware of the situation), equally as important is to not let these revelations distract from more operationally valuable information. On the one hand, it is unlikely that exceptionally powerful people would not be able to influence the release of these documents. On the other hand, in the event that truly “smoking-gun” information is released regarding Epstein’s clients, the potential for deception operations (including false-flags) to be carried out is high.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
🫡117👍66🌭10❤7👏3👻2
RR The Wire 1830Z January 05, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183005Z JAN 24
ICOD: 173005Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: INDIA RESCUES HIJACKED SHIP. TENSIONS ESCALATE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Indian Naval forces conducted rescue operations onboard a hijacked vessel in the Arabian Sea. The vessel, now identified as the M/V LILA NORFOLK, was hijacked two days ago by unknown assailants. Upon boarding, Indian forces discovered that the hijackers had fled prior to the counterpiracy operation.
In the Red Sea, economic impacts to western shipping companies continue to be felt. Some estimates indicate that some companies have quadrupled their normal shipping rates in response to the fuel, maintenance, and administrative costs resulting from shifting to longer routes. Additionally, the surge of maritime traffic to the Cape Route has caused congestion at many ports in Africa, as most of the port facilities now required for refueling were not built to handle the capacity now expected of them. AC: As a reminder, most Chinese, Russian, and Iranian shipping through the region remains unhindered; it is only the primarily western-based shipping that is being impacted by Yemeni targeting.
Far East: Tensions escalate between North and South Korea in response to recent moves by both sides. A few weeks ago, Kim Jong Un signaled a radical shift in DPRK policy, namely the “impossibility” of Korean reunification. The idea of reunification has been removed from North Korean propaganda websites, confirming the shift in rhetoric. As the idea of reunification has been the bedrock of DPRK rhetoric for decades (as evidenced by the famous Arch of Reunification monument, among countless others), this change has caused diplomatic tensions between the North and South.
Yesterday, the diplomatic tensions transitioned into kinetic action, as DPRK forces conducted military exercises near South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. The live-fire “exercises” were extremely close to the island, prompting evacuations. ROK forces have responded in kind, conducting military exercises in the same area.
-HomeFront-
SD: A B-1B Lancer strategic bomber crashed upon landing at Ellsworth Air Force Base at approximately 5:30 pm (local time) yesterday evening. All four crew members safely ejected from the aircraft. Initial reporting indicates the cause for the accident may have been due to weather conditions.
Analyst Comments:
Though the tensions on the Korean peninsula may seem to be a dire situation, tit-for-tat artillery exercises have been a mainstay of the Korean conflict for decades. So far, neither the North nor the South have fired into each other’s territory, but both have conducted provocation actions in the diplomatically ambiguous areas along the border. However, as tensions have been rising on the Korean peninsula for months, it is possible that accidents or diplomatic mistakes could cascade into creating more serious problems throughout the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 183005Z JAN 24
ICOD: 173005Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: INDIA RESCUES HIJACKED SHIP. TENSIONS ESCALATE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Indian Naval forces conducted rescue operations onboard a hijacked vessel in the Arabian Sea. The vessel, now identified as the M/V LILA NORFOLK, was hijacked two days ago by unknown assailants. Upon boarding, Indian forces discovered that the hijackers had fled prior to the counterpiracy operation.
In the Red Sea, economic impacts to western shipping companies continue to be felt. Some estimates indicate that some companies have quadrupled their normal shipping rates in response to the fuel, maintenance, and administrative costs resulting from shifting to longer routes. Additionally, the surge of maritime traffic to the Cape Route has caused congestion at many ports in Africa, as most of the port facilities now required for refueling were not built to handle the capacity now expected of them. AC: As a reminder, most Chinese, Russian, and Iranian shipping through the region remains unhindered; it is only the primarily western-based shipping that is being impacted by Yemeni targeting.
Far East: Tensions escalate between North and South Korea in response to recent moves by both sides. A few weeks ago, Kim Jong Un signaled a radical shift in DPRK policy, namely the “impossibility” of Korean reunification. The idea of reunification has been removed from North Korean propaganda websites, confirming the shift in rhetoric. As the idea of reunification has been the bedrock of DPRK rhetoric for decades (as evidenced by the famous Arch of Reunification monument, among countless others), this change has caused diplomatic tensions between the North and South.
Yesterday, the diplomatic tensions transitioned into kinetic action, as DPRK forces conducted military exercises near South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. The live-fire “exercises” were extremely close to the island, prompting evacuations. ROK forces have responded in kind, conducting military exercises in the same area.
-HomeFront-
SD: A B-1B Lancer strategic bomber crashed upon landing at Ellsworth Air Force Base at approximately 5:30 pm (local time) yesterday evening. All four crew members safely ejected from the aircraft. Initial reporting indicates the cause for the accident may have been due to weather conditions.
Analyst Comments:
Though the tensions on the Korean peninsula may seem to be a dire situation, tit-for-tat artillery exercises have been a mainstay of the Korean conflict for decades. So far, neither the North nor the South have fired into each other’s territory, but both have conducted provocation actions in the diplomatically ambiguous areas along the border. However, as tensions have been rising on the Korean peninsula for months, it is possible that accidents or diplomatic mistakes could cascade into creating more serious problems throughout the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
🫡99👍62🌭8⚡4✍4🤔2👻1
RR The Wire 1630Z January 06, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163006Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153006Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MAERSK AGAIN SUSPENDS SHIPPING IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Following the successful attack on the M/V HANGZHOU last week, Maersk announced a temporary pause of shipping through the Red Sea. Overnight, Maersk has announced an indefinite extension to the shipping pause in response to the realization that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not effective, despite best efforts.
AC: This strongly indicates what has been obvious for several days; that Maersk never seriously committed to returning traffic to the Red Sea, and instead gaslit investors into thinking that everything was fine. The fact that one of their first ships to resume travel was successfully struck with a cruise missile also indicates that naval forces in the region are not capable of providing enough missile defense to make travel viable for commercial shipping. Though details are hard to verify, Amazon, Walmart, and IKEA are among the companies already reportedly experiencing supply shortages due to the logistical problems created by the Red Sea Crisis.
-HomeFront-
USA: SECDEF Lloyd Austin has been hospitalized since Monday following alleged complications from an unknown elective procedure. This was disclosed to the public last night, approximately four days after the event first occurred. No further details are available at this time.
CA: Alaskan Airlines Flight 1282 bound for Ontario, California experienced an uncontrolled depressurization incident when one of the aircraft doors blew out mid-flight. No word yet on any passenger injuries.
Analyst Comments:
Though rapid depressurization incidents are rare, this incident is even more concerning as the aircraft was a Boeing 737-9 MAX, and is one of the newer aircraft in Alaska’s fleet. In response to this high-profile incident, Alaska has announced the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 aircraft in their fleet. As a reminder, Boeing’s 737 MAX program has been fraught with controversy over the past 2-3 years following multiple fatal crashes (most of which involved the new MCAS system, and not structural integrity issues). In November of 2020, the FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to issue certificates of airworthiness for this model of aircraft. Boeing was also fined by the FAA in 2021 for “exerting undue pressure” on aircraft inspectors.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163006Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153006Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MAERSK AGAIN SUSPENDS SHIPPING IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Following the successful attack on the M/V HANGZHOU last week, Maersk announced a temporary pause of shipping through the Red Sea. Overnight, Maersk has announced an indefinite extension to the shipping pause in response to the realization that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not effective, despite best efforts.
AC: This strongly indicates what has been obvious for several days; that Maersk never seriously committed to returning traffic to the Red Sea, and instead gaslit investors into thinking that everything was fine. The fact that one of their first ships to resume travel was successfully struck with a cruise missile also indicates that naval forces in the region are not capable of providing enough missile defense to make travel viable for commercial shipping. Though details are hard to verify, Amazon, Walmart, and IKEA are among the companies already reportedly experiencing supply shortages due to the logistical problems created by the Red Sea Crisis.
-HomeFront-
USA: SECDEF Lloyd Austin has been hospitalized since Monday following alleged complications from an unknown elective procedure. This was disclosed to the public last night, approximately four days after the event first occurred. No further details are available at this time.
CA: Alaskan Airlines Flight 1282 bound for Ontario, California experienced an uncontrolled depressurization incident when one of the aircraft doors blew out mid-flight. No word yet on any passenger injuries.
Analyst Comments:
Though rapid depressurization incidents are rare, this incident is even more concerning as the aircraft was a Boeing 737-9 MAX, and is one of the newer aircraft in Alaska’s fleet. In response to this high-profile incident, Alaska has announced the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 aircraft in their fleet. As a reminder, Boeing’s 737 MAX program has been fraught with controversy over the past 2-3 years following multiple fatal crashes (most of which involved the new MCAS system, and not structural integrity issues). In November of 2020, the FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to issue certificates of airworthiness for this model of aircraft. Boeing was also fined by the FAA in 2021 for “exerting undue pressure” on aircraft inspectors.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
👍87🫡76🌭9❤5🔥3🙏2🤨2👻2👏1😱1😐1
RR The Wire 2330Z January 08, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233008Z JAN 24
ICOD: 223008Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION FOR MYSTERY ILLNESS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Widespread protests begin in Germany in response to a variety of taxation and policy issues. So far, significant traffic disruptions have been reported in Berlin as the largely farmer-driven protest begins in earnest.
-HomeFront-
USA: Following the depressurization incident experienced by Alaskan Flight 1282, mass inspections of the Boeing 737 Max 9 platform have been underway for a few days. So far, United Airlines has reported finding loose bolts on several of their aircraft, in the same section of the aircraft that failed on Flight 1282.
TX: Developing reports indicate that a few minutes ago, an explosion occurred at the Sandman Hotel in Fort Worth. So far, many injuries have been reported. AC: Very early reports indicate this may have been the result of a gas leak, but as the situation is still developing, few details have been confirmed as of this report.
Washington D.C.: Further details regarding the hospitalization of SECDEF Lloyd Austin raise concerns within the National Command Authority. Details are also highly contradictory; originally Pentagon reports stated that Austin was hospitalized due to complications from a routine elective procedure. Now, details emerge that Austin was hospitalized in the ICU of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on New Years Day after suffering “severe pain”, strongly indicating the “elective procedure” detail was an outright lie. Additionally, Pentagon officials originally stated that the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Kathleen Hicks, was briefed on the situation and command was properly transferred to her during Austin’s hospitalization. Now, details emerge that Hicks had no idea of the severity of the hospitalization, and was actually on vacation at the time of the incident.
Analyst Comments: Though deception events surrounding powerful government officials are not new, the Office of the Secretary of Defense is not a random cabinet position. The SECDEF has a direct role to play in the use of strategic weapons. The POTUS, VPOTUS, and SECDEF must all unanimously concur on the release of nuclear weapons, for instance. Much political rhetoric surrounds the cognitive abilities of a Commander in Chief specifically with regards to the use of nuclear weapons, with good reason. However, one of the men who also has to concur with the POTUS’ orders went missing for four days, and the staff of his Deputy knew nothing about it. As such, this is no minor game of hooky. Even more concerning are the basic questions surrounding who was acting as SECDEF for several days, and what actions the staff officers of the SECDEF and acting-SECDEF undertook during this crisis-of-command.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233008Z JAN 24
ICOD: 223008Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION FOR MYSTERY ILLNESS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Widespread protests begin in Germany in response to a variety of taxation and policy issues. So far, significant traffic disruptions have been reported in Berlin as the largely farmer-driven protest begins in earnest.
-HomeFront-
USA: Following the depressurization incident experienced by Alaskan Flight 1282, mass inspections of the Boeing 737 Max 9 platform have been underway for a few days. So far, United Airlines has reported finding loose bolts on several of their aircraft, in the same section of the aircraft that failed on Flight 1282.
TX: Developing reports indicate that a few minutes ago, an explosion occurred at the Sandman Hotel in Fort Worth. So far, many injuries have been reported. AC: Very early reports indicate this may have been the result of a gas leak, but as the situation is still developing, few details have been confirmed as of this report.
Washington D.C.: Further details regarding the hospitalization of SECDEF Lloyd Austin raise concerns within the National Command Authority. Details are also highly contradictory; originally Pentagon reports stated that Austin was hospitalized due to complications from a routine elective procedure. Now, details emerge that Austin was hospitalized in the ICU of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on New Years Day after suffering “severe pain”, strongly indicating the “elective procedure” detail was an outright lie. Additionally, Pentagon officials originally stated that the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Kathleen Hicks, was briefed on the situation and command was properly transferred to her during Austin’s hospitalization. Now, details emerge that Hicks had no idea of the severity of the hospitalization, and was actually on vacation at the time of the incident.
Analyst Comments: Though deception events surrounding powerful government officials are not new, the Office of the Secretary of Defense is not a random cabinet position. The SECDEF has a direct role to play in the use of strategic weapons. The POTUS, VPOTUS, and SECDEF must all unanimously concur on the release of nuclear weapons, for instance. Much political rhetoric surrounds the cognitive abilities of a Commander in Chief specifically with regards to the use of nuclear weapons, with good reason. However, one of the men who also has to concur with the POTUS’ orders went missing for four days, and the staff of his Deputy knew nothing about it. As such, this is no minor game of hooky. Even more concerning are the basic questions surrounding who was acting as SECDEF for several days, and what actions the staff officers of the SECDEF and acting-SECDEF undertook during this crisis-of-command.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 09, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223009Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213009Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CIVIL CONFLICT BEGINS IN ECUADOR. SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: In Ecuador, President Noboa has declared a national state of emergency following cartel hostilities. Fighting broke out this morning following reports that the leader of the Los Choneros cartel, Adolfo Macías Villamar, has escaped from prison. Combat has broken out in many locations throughout Ecuador as cartel gunmen launch assaults on civilian centers with the apparent goal of taking hostages. So far, fighting has been reported in Guayaquil, Cuenca, Ambato, and several other cities.
An assault was launched on the television studio in Guayaquil, with gunmen taking the studio anchors hostage on live television. Explosions were reported IVO Fort Huancavilca in Guayaquil as military forces began mobilizing to retake strategic locations throughout Ecuador’s largest city. In Cuenca, prisoners at Torre Prison overpowered guards, and have been holding them hostage for several hours. Several videos have been posted by cartel-affiliated social media accounts confirming the execution of some hostages.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization continues, with few details regarding his current condition. However, Pentagon officials have stated that Austin was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, which was the origin of the initial medical treatment. According to the latest version of the story told by Pentagon officials, this illness mandated “elective” surgery, which resulted in complications and Austin’s subsequent hospitalization.
Analyst Comments: As the statements by defense officials continue to change between press briefings, and have contained outright lies, it is hard to believe any details currently being stated by the Pentagon. It is also unclear as to whom is currently carrying out the duties of SECDEF. As Austin is still hospitalized and has not been visually seen by the public since the beginning of this incident, coupled with the tone of Pentagon statements indicating the handing over of duties to his Deputy being a temporary action, it is possible that Austin retains the duties of SECDEF.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223009Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213009Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CIVIL CONFLICT BEGINS IN ECUADOR. SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: In Ecuador, President Noboa has declared a national state of emergency following cartel hostilities. Fighting broke out this morning following reports that the leader of the Los Choneros cartel, Adolfo Macías Villamar, has escaped from prison. Combat has broken out in many locations throughout Ecuador as cartel gunmen launch assaults on civilian centers with the apparent goal of taking hostages. So far, fighting has been reported in Guayaquil, Cuenca, Ambato, and several other cities.
An assault was launched on the television studio in Guayaquil, with gunmen taking the studio anchors hostage on live television. Explosions were reported IVO Fort Huancavilca in Guayaquil as military forces began mobilizing to retake strategic locations throughout Ecuador’s largest city. In Cuenca, prisoners at Torre Prison overpowered guards, and have been holding them hostage for several hours. Several videos have been posted by cartel-affiliated social media accounts confirming the execution of some hostages.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization continues, with few details regarding his current condition. However, Pentagon officials have stated that Austin was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, which was the origin of the initial medical treatment. According to the latest version of the story told by Pentagon officials, this illness mandated “elective” surgery, which resulted in complications and Austin’s subsequent hospitalization.
Analyst Comments: As the statements by defense officials continue to change between press briefings, and have contained outright lies, it is hard to believe any details currently being stated by the Pentagon. It is also unclear as to whom is currently carrying out the duties of SECDEF. As Austin is still hospitalized and has not been visually seen by the public since the beginning of this incident, coupled with the tone of Pentagon statements indicating the handing over of duties to his Deputy being a temporary action, it is possible that Austin retains the duties of SECDEF.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 10, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223010Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213010Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION IN ECUADOR REMAINS TENSE. ATTACKS CONTINUE IN RED SEA. TUNNEL SYSTEM DISCOVERED IN NEW YORK.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Situation in Ecuador remains tense as military forces begin mobilization in most major cities. The initial hostilities have subsided following this mobilization, but sporadic gunfire and explosions continue to be reported in most major cities.
Europe: Farmer protests continue in Germany. As preliminary reports expected, this nationwide protest is one of the largest in Europe’s history, and has been met with widespread support from locals, despite causing significant transportation issues.
Red Sea/HOA: Impacts to western shipping continue as before. Yesterday, Yemeni forces conducted a complex attack on US Naval vessels and commercial shipping, using 18x drones, 2 ASCMs, and one ballistic missile. All were intercepted by coalition Naval vessels in the area.
-HomeFront-
NY: Controversy emerges surrounding events at the Chabad Lubavitch World Headquarters in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. Several days ago, viral content on social media emerged as unrest broke out upon city officials attempting to fill in a secret tunnel network beneath the facility. AC: As this is a highly controversial topic, accounts vary as to the origin, usage, contents, and extent of this tunnel system. However, most accounts so far suggest most of the digging was conducted relatively recently. Public works officials have not provided mapping data of how extensive the underground system is, but many local reports indicate structural integrity issues in the surrounding properties.
NY: James Madison High School was evacuated of students in order to serve as housing for illegal immigrants. Students will reportedly be attending classes remotely while the facility is being used to house approximately 2,000 illegals. Authorities claim this move is temporary due to severe weather conditions.
Washington D.C. – Correction to previous Wire: SECDEF Austin has prostate cancer, not pancreatic as previously reported. Further details released by Pentagon officials indicate Austin and his staff deliberately withheld most details surrounding his hospitalization. For instance, his Deputy was only told about his hospitalization two days after assuming command. White House staff were also not informed that Austin was undergoing a procedure that required general anesthesia, nor was the White House informed that the SECDEF had transferred command to his Deputy.
Analyst Comments: As SECDEF Austin has not been seen by the public for over a week, doubts begin to emerge following the Pentagon’s conflicting reports on his status. Based on interactions with the press, the White House only learned of the incident through media coverage, indicating that the POTUS going 7 days without speaking to the SECDEF is culturally viewed as normal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223010Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213010Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION IN ECUADOR REMAINS TENSE. ATTACKS CONTINUE IN RED SEA. TUNNEL SYSTEM DISCOVERED IN NEW YORK.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Situation in Ecuador remains tense as military forces begin mobilization in most major cities. The initial hostilities have subsided following this mobilization, but sporadic gunfire and explosions continue to be reported in most major cities.
Europe: Farmer protests continue in Germany. As preliminary reports expected, this nationwide protest is one of the largest in Europe’s history, and has been met with widespread support from locals, despite causing significant transportation issues.
Red Sea/HOA: Impacts to western shipping continue as before. Yesterday, Yemeni forces conducted a complex attack on US Naval vessels and commercial shipping, using 18x drones, 2 ASCMs, and one ballistic missile. All were intercepted by coalition Naval vessels in the area.
-HomeFront-
NY: Controversy emerges surrounding events at the Chabad Lubavitch World Headquarters in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. Several days ago, viral content on social media emerged as unrest broke out upon city officials attempting to fill in a secret tunnel network beneath the facility. AC: As this is a highly controversial topic, accounts vary as to the origin, usage, contents, and extent of this tunnel system. However, most accounts so far suggest most of the digging was conducted relatively recently. Public works officials have not provided mapping data of how extensive the underground system is, but many local reports indicate structural integrity issues in the surrounding properties.
NY: James Madison High School was evacuated of students in order to serve as housing for illegal immigrants. Students will reportedly be attending classes remotely while the facility is being used to house approximately 2,000 illegals. Authorities claim this move is temporary due to severe weather conditions.
Washington D.C. – Correction to previous Wire: SECDEF Austin has prostate cancer, not pancreatic as previously reported. Further details released by Pentagon officials indicate Austin and his staff deliberately withheld most details surrounding his hospitalization. For instance, his Deputy was only told about his hospitalization two days after assuming command. White House staff were also not informed that Austin was undergoing a procedure that required general anesthesia, nor was the White House informed that the SECDEF had transferred command to his Deputy.
Analyst Comments: As SECDEF Austin has not been seen by the public for over a week, doubts begin to emerge following the Pentagon’s conflicting reports on his status. Based on interactions with the press, the White House only learned of the incident through media coverage, indicating that the POTUS going 7 days without speaking to the SECDEF is culturally viewed as normal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 11, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223011Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213011Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: IRAN RE-HIJACKS OIL TANKER. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The M/V ST NIKOLAS (an oil tanker bound for Turkey) was hijacked by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 50 NM north of Oman. AC: There is more to this incident than meets the eye. This vessel previously went by a different name, the M/V SUEZ RAJAN, and was seized by the U.S. in 2022 for shipping Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. After waiting for the vessel to onload a payload of oil from Iraq, Iranian forces re-captured the vessel, along with the cargo of oil.
South America: Widespread military mobilization continues in Ecuador following the cartel violence that spread throughout the country several days ago.
Europe: Protests continue in Germany, Spain, Poland, Denmark, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and many other European nations demonstrating support or denouncement of a variety of issues. In addition to the pro-Palestine demonstrations which have become regular throughout Europe, many protests include demonstrations of solidarity with the farmer protests in Germany.
Red Sea/HOA: Conflict continues as before. Almost all commercial shipping destined for western nations remains committed to the Cape route, while local traffic through the Red Sea remains largely unaffected. AC: Though entirely unconfirmed rumor ATT, talks are reportedly underway among coalition forces that may involve conducting strikes within Yemen.
Analyst Comments: From the very beginning of the Red Sea Crisis, the elephant in the room has been the use of force within Yemen. As it has become clear that international shipping companies have no faith in the defenses provided by the US Navy, alternative plans have likely been on the table before OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN even began. However, conducting any strike (even limited strikes on launch sites) will have a direct impact on the fighting in Gaza. As Hezbollah has increasingly become more actively involved in the north, widening the conflict into Yemeni territory will almost certainly accelerate the pace of the Gaza War.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223011Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213011Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: IRAN RE-HIJACKS OIL TANKER. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The M/V ST NIKOLAS (an oil tanker bound for Turkey) was hijacked by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 50 NM north of Oman. AC: There is more to this incident than meets the eye. This vessel previously went by a different name, the M/V SUEZ RAJAN, and was seized by the U.S. in 2022 for shipping Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. After waiting for the vessel to onload a payload of oil from Iraq, Iranian forces re-captured the vessel, along with the cargo of oil.
South America: Widespread military mobilization continues in Ecuador following the cartel violence that spread throughout the country several days ago.
Europe: Protests continue in Germany, Spain, Poland, Denmark, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and many other European nations demonstrating support or denouncement of a variety of issues. In addition to the pro-Palestine demonstrations which have become regular throughout Europe, many protests include demonstrations of solidarity with the farmer protests in Germany.
Red Sea/HOA: Conflict continues as before. Almost all commercial shipping destined for western nations remains committed to the Cape route, while local traffic through the Red Sea remains largely unaffected. AC: Though entirely unconfirmed rumor ATT, talks are reportedly underway among coalition forces that may involve conducting strikes within Yemen.
Analyst Comments: From the very beginning of the Red Sea Crisis, the elephant in the room has been the use of force within Yemen. As it has become clear that international shipping companies have no faith in the defenses provided by the US Navy, alternative plans have likely been on the table before OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN even began. However, conducting any strike (even limited strikes on launch sites) will have a direct impact on the fighting in Gaza. As Hezbollah has increasingly become more actively involved in the north, widening the conflict into Yemeni territory will almost certainly accelerate the pace of the Gaza War.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire 0130Z January 12, 2024
PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 013012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 010012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: USA/GBR CONDUCT AIRSTRIKES IN YEMEN. REGIONAL ATTACKS INTENSIFY IN KIND.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
Middle East: At approximately 0230 local time, British and American forces began conducting airstrikes within Yemen. Pentagon officials state that approximately 10 locations were targeted throughout the nation. Targeting has largely focused on the capital city of Sanaa, as well as the city of Tays and the port of Hodaydah. In response, Yemeni forces have launched substantial missile attacks on US vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
In response to these attacks, significant developments are currently underway throughout the region. Iranian officials have pledged support for Yemen, and most Iranian military forces have assumed a heightened state of readiness. Substantial attacks have been reported at many coalition bases in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has also been targeted with Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons.
Responses from regional power-players have varied. Saudi Arabia allowed the use of their airspace for the attack. Conversely, Oman has forbid the use of their airspace for this operation, and the United Arab Emirates has placed their forces on alert in response to coalition targeting.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, White House officials called a lid for today, so no comments have been made by POTUS regarding this operation. Also, SECDEF Lloyd Austin remains hospitalized, and has not been seen by the public for over 11 days. Considering these factors, it is not clear as to who authorized this operation at this time, or at which level of command and control this operation is being monitored from.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 013012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 010012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: USA/GBR CONDUCT AIRSTRIKES IN YEMEN. REGIONAL ATTACKS INTENSIFY IN KIND.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
Middle East: At approximately 0230 local time, British and American forces began conducting airstrikes within Yemen. Pentagon officials state that approximately 10 locations were targeted throughout the nation. Targeting has largely focused on the capital city of Sanaa, as well as the city of Tays and the port of Hodaydah. In response, Yemeni forces have launched substantial missile attacks on US vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
In response to these attacks, significant developments are currently underway throughout the region. Iranian officials have pledged support for Yemen, and most Iranian military forces have assumed a heightened state of readiness. Substantial attacks have been reported at many coalition bases in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has also been targeted with Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons.
Responses from regional power-players have varied. Saudi Arabia allowed the use of their airspace for the attack. Conversely, Oman has forbid the use of their airspace for this operation, and the United Arab Emirates has placed their forces on alert in response to coalition targeting.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, White House officials called a lid for today, so no comments have been made by POTUS regarding this operation. Also, SECDEF Lloyd Austin remains hospitalized, and has not been seen by the public for over 11 days. Considering these factors, it is not clear as to who authorized this operation at this time, or at which level of command and control this operation is being monitored from.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1730Z January 12, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 163012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: TEXAS SEIZES BORDER CROSSING. YEMEN VOWS RETALIATION FOR STRIKES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following major airstrikes within Yemen, Houthi forces have vowed to retaliate. A few hours after the American and British attacks, Yemeni forces conducted an attack on a commercial shipping vessel. The attack was unsuccessful as the missile fired at the vessel missed, splashing down within 500m of the ship.
Around the region, an observable increase in rocket attacks originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon was noted last night, but no indicators of a major offensive effort are present yet.
Europe: Panic buying is underway in Sweden following statements by government officials regarding the possibility of war. Defense Minister Bohlin stated that “there could be war in Sweden”. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces reinforced these statements, urging the public that “On an individual level, you have to prepare yourself mentally”. AC: Though these statements are not out of the ordinary considering events in Europe, hearing such blunt admissions by high-ranking officials has been shocking for many Swedes. There are no indicators that war will break out in Sweden imminently, but as tensions remain extremely high throughout the continent, general preparedness is a prudent goal for citizens to consider.
-HomeFront-
TX: Significant developments are underway at the southern border. The State of Texas has seized land surrounding the infamous Shelby Park in Eagle Pass. TX National Guard forces have deployed in positions so as to block federal CBP agents from accessing the border. The adjacent boat launch also used by CBP is also now off limits to federal agents.
This move comes following months of federal agents cutting razor wire, removing barricades, and directly aiding and abetting illegal immigration. As a reminder, last week DHS officials confirmed that over 85% of all illegals encountered at the border are not currently being deported, but instead being released into the United States.
Washington D.C. – Congress voices objection to not approving airstrikes in a nation the U.S. is not at war with. Questions also remain following Pentagon statements that SECDEF Austin allegedly approved the strikes from his hospital bed.
Analyst Comments: Though tensions between agencies have been common at the southern US border for years, recent developments have shifted attitudes into more of an adversarial nature. As history has proven, the impacts that state vs. federal conflict can have are often underestimated before flashpoints occur. Likewise, the use of armed soldiers by both sides presents even more opportunities for substantial mistakes to be made.
Following the strikes in Yemen, the main question remains: “What happens next?”. Yemeni forces will likely repair or replace damaged facilities and equipment over the next few weeks. Calling into question the philosophical nature of an air war, it is hard to argue that even substantial targeting within a nation will be totally successful. As such, Yemen will be quick to prove that the strikes did not remove all of their combat power, and will likely increase targeting of US Navy vessels in the region. Commercial shipping companies will likely be hesitant to resume operations as one airstrike is not likely to reduce Yemeni capabilities enough for ships to become confident in transiting the Red Sea. Especially considering the Houthis are now overly motivated to carry out strikes on commercial shipping, to reaffirm their military dominance in the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 163012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: TEXAS SEIZES BORDER CROSSING. YEMEN VOWS RETALIATION FOR STRIKES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following major airstrikes within Yemen, Houthi forces have vowed to retaliate. A few hours after the American and British attacks, Yemeni forces conducted an attack on a commercial shipping vessel. The attack was unsuccessful as the missile fired at the vessel missed, splashing down within 500m of the ship.
Around the region, an observable increase in rocket attacks originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon was noted last night, but no indicators of a major offensive effort are present yet.
Europe: Panic buying is underway in Sweden following statements by government officials regarding the possibility of war. Defense Minister Bohlin stated that “there could be war in Sweden”. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces reinforced these statements, urging the public that “On an individual level, you have to prepare yourself mentally”. AC: Though these statements are not out of the ordinary considering events in Europe, hearing such blunt admissions by high-ranking officials has been shocking for many Swedes. There are no indicators that war will break out in Sweden imminently, but as tensions remain extremely high throughout the continent, general preparedness is a prudent goal for citizens to consider.
-HomeFront-
TX: Significant developments are underway at the southern border. The State of Texas has seized land surrounding the infamous Shelby Park in Eagle Pass. TX National Guard forces have deployed in positions so as to block federal CBP agents from accessing the border. The adjacent boat launch also used by CBP is also now off limits to federal agents.
This move comes following months of federal agents cutting razor wire, removing barricades, and directly aiding and abetting illegal immigration. As a reminder, last week DHS officials confirmed that over 85% of all illegals encountered at the border are not currently being deported, but instead being released into the United States.
Washington D.C. – Congress voices objection to not approving airstrikes in a nation the U.S. is not at war with. Questions also remain following Pentagon statements that SECDEF Austin allegedly approved the strikes from his hospital bed.
Analyst Comments: Though tensions between agencies have been common at the southern US border for years, recent developments have shifted attitudes into more of an adversarial nature. As history has proven, the impacts that state vs. federal conflict can have are often underestimated before flashpoints occur. Likewise, the use of armed soldiers by both sides presents even more opportunities for substantial mistakes to be made.
Following the strikes in Yemen, the main question remains: “What happens next?”. Yemeni forces will likely repair or replace damaged facilities and equipment over the next few weeks. Calling into question the philosophical nature of an air war, it is hard to argue that even substantial targeting within a nation will be totally successful. As such, Yemen will be quick to prove that the strikes did not remove all of their combat power, and will likely increase targeting of US Navy vessels in the region. Commercial shipping companies will likely be hesitant to resume operations as one airstrike is not likely to reduce Yemeni capabilities enough for ships to become confident in transiting the Red Sea. Especially considering the Houthis are now overly motivated to carry out strikes on commercial shipping, to reaffirm their military dominance in the region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
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RR The Wire 1630Z January 13, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163013Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153013Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. NAVY SAILORS MISSING AT SEA IN GULF OF ADEN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM has confirmed that the U.S. Navy is currently conducting SAR operations as two sailors have been reported missing. Airstrikes within Yemen enter their second day as Pentagon officials continue to withhold details of this operation. Little information has been disclosed as to the size, scope, or duration of this mission.
Europe: Investigative journalist (and American citizen) Gonzalo Lira has died in a Ukrainian prison. Following previous run-ins with Ukrainian officials, he was ultimately incarcerated in May for allegedly promoting “Russian aggression” in video content that was critical of Zelensky. Communication with him was limited before his death, but he did confirm that he had been tortured prior to his final imprisonment (and subsequent disappearance) which resulted from him trying to flee the country.
Far East: In Japan, ANA Flight 1182 experienced an in-flight emergency, returning to Toyama airport after takeoff. Pilots noticed a crack in a cockpit window, prompting the Boeing 737-800 to perform a precautionary landing. The crack did not result in any depressurization or injuries to the crew.
-HomeFront-
TX: The DHS has filed an emergency motion with SCOTUS to stop Texas from securing the southern border. At the moment, it is unclear as to if the SCOTUS will take the case.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there has been no statement explaining the combat operations within Yemen in any detail. As Congress has not approved this operation, the details of the operation itself are not public; we do not know if this is a limited action, a temporary campaign, or the beginning of a war. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that “We’re not interested in…a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind here”. However, dropping bombs on a country is usually the defining characteristic of a conflict. Additionally, U.S. officials have urged commercial shipping to avoid the area. This is generally counterproductive for a military operation intended to increase freedom of navigation. Consequently, more shipping companies have announced a cessation of operations through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
As conflicting information abounds surrounding the war in Yemen, questions begin to emerge regarding potential U.S. casualties. Yemen claims to have destroyed several ships and aircraft, whereas the U.S. claims to have sustained no damage at all. Considering the intensity of Yemeni counterattacks, the truth is likely somewhere in between these extremes. Though quite impressive, U.S. Navy shipborne defenses are not infallible, falling prey to swarm attacks or intense concentrations of fire…the exact style of attack Yemeni forces are conducting. Yemeni targeting is primitive by comparison…but the competency crisis within the U.S. Navy is severe.
Missing sailors are unfortunately common; suicides and accidents occur quite frequently when on deployment. However, two sailors going missing at the same time is rare. It is even more rare for this to happen during a heightened state of readiness, and in the middle of combat operations when situational awareness is enhanced and complacency should be minimal.
Though this is highly speculative at this time, it is possible that the reports of missing sailors are linked to a successful Yemeni attack. It is impossible to determine in any case as ships at sea do not tend to host investigative journalists. Considering the sources, even in the rare case a U.S. Navy ship was successfully targeted, the only source for information would be the U.S. Navy itself, until the crew returned to port and had the option of leaking the information.
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163013Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153013Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. NAVY SAILORS MISSING AT SEA IN GULF OF ADEN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM has confirmed that the U.S. Navy is currently conducting SAR operations as two sailors have been reported missing. Airstrikes within Yemen enter their second day as Pentagon officials continue to withhold details of this operation. Little information has been disclosed as to the size, scope, or duration of this mission.
Europe: Investigative journalist (and American citizen) Gonzalo Lira has died in a Ukrainian prison. Following previous run-ins with Ukrainian officials, he was ultimately incarcerated in May for allegedly promoting “Russian aggression” in video content that was critical of Zelensky. Communication with him was limited before his death, but he did confirm that he had been tortured prior to his final imprisonment (and subsequent disappearance) which resulted from him trying to flee the country.
Far East: In Japan, ANA Flight 1182 experienced an in-flight emergency, returning to Toyama airport after takeoff. Pilots noticed a crack in a cockpit window, prompting the Boeing 737-800 to perform a precautionary landing. The crack did not result in any depressurization or injuries to the crew.
-HomeFront-
TX: The DHS has filed an emergency motion with SCOTUS to stop Texas from securing the southern border. At the moment, it is unclear as to if the SCOTUS will take the case.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there has been no statement explaining the combat operations within Yemen in any detail. As Congress has not approved this operation, the details of the operation itself are not public; we do not know if this is a limited action, a temporary campaign, or the beginning of a war. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that “We’re not interested in…a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind here”. However, dropping bombs on a country is usually the defining characteristic of a conflict. Additionally, U.S. officials have urged commercial shipping to avoid the area. This is generally counterproductive for a military operation intended to increase freedom of navigation. Consequently, more shipping companies have announced a cessation of operations through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
As conflicting information abounds surrounding the war in Yemen, questions begin to emerge regarding potential U.S. casualties. Yemen claims to have destroyed several ships and aircraft, whereas the U.S. claims to have sustained no damage at all. Considering the intensity of Yemeni counterattacks, the truth is likely somewhere in between these extremes. Though quite impressive, U.S. Navy shipborne defenses are not infallible, falling prey to swarm attacks or intense concentrations of fire…the exact style of attack Yemeni forces are conducting. Yemeni targeting is primitive by comparison…but the competency crisis within the U.S. Navy is severe.
Missing sailors are unfortunately common; suicides and accidents occur quite frequently when on deployment. However, two sailors going missing at the same time is rare. It is even more rare for this to happen during a heightened state of readiness, and in the middle of combat operations when situational awareness is enhanced and complacency should be minimal.
Though this is highly speculative at this time, it is possible that the reports of missing sailors are linked to a successful Yemeni attack. It is impossible to determine in any case as ships at sea do not tend to host investigative journalists. Considering the sources, even in the rare case a U.S. Navy ship was successfully targeted, the only source for information would be the U.S. Navy itself, until the crew returned to port and had the option of leaking the information.
👍110🫡82❤13🌭9🙏5👨💻3🤣1
Historically, the DoD has been very quick to disclose casualties during operations. However, due to the highly-sensitive and political nature of this conflict, coupled with an election season, the means, motive, and opportunity to conceal damage reports has never been higher. In short, if the DoD had the desire to conceal combat actions, or more specifically combat casualties, declaring sailors “missing” is exactly how it would happen.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
NNNN
👍133🫡87🌭12🤮5❤4🙏4
//The Wire//1530Z January 15, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SAR EFFORTS CONTINUE FOR SAILORS MISSING IN GULF OF ADEN. TAIWAN ELECTIONS RAISE TENSIONS IN REGION//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Navy forces continue to search for two sailors that went missing on Saturday. Pentagon statements indicate that the sailors were SEALs who went missing during a boarding operation. No further details at this time.
Despite American airstrikes, Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues largely unabated. This morning, the UKMTO reported a missile strike on an as yet unidentified merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
This morning, Qatar announced their cessation of LNG shipping through the Red Sea, in response to U.S. targeting. AC: Qatar provides approximately 13% of the LNG consumed by western Europe, all of which was transported via the Red Sea route.
Far East: Recent elections in Taiwan have exacerbated tensions with China. Following the election win of Lai Ching-te and the third consecutive win for Taiwan’s incumbent ruling party, the White House responded by issuing the statement that “We do not support independence”. AC: This continues the creeping departure from the long-standing policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding Taiwanese independence. As China will be looking at this election as an exacerbation of Taiwanese independence sentiments, China will likely be conducting major military drills in response to the election results.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – Further reports indicate the gross negligence surrounding SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization. Follow on information indicates that, during Austin’s initial transfer of command while under anesthesia, his Deputy (Kathleen Hicks) did not cancel her beach vacation in Puerto Rico, remaining outside the United States during this crisis of command.
Washington D.C. – Protesters supporting Palestine and Yemen breached White House security Saturday night, breaking through an outer perimeter fence.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The Dr. Strangelove-esque risks clearly and openly presented by senior defense officials are not simply grievances of a personal or political nature, but indicative of the gross incompetency within the National Command Authority (NCA) that has resulted in exceptionally grave strategic vulnerabilities being presented to the world. As a reminder, following the Chinese Spy Balloon incident last year, a slew of firings swept through STRATCOM, with many senior leaders being relieved of command. Many of these firings continue; even as recently as last September the commander of the 9th Bomb Squadron was relieved after only a few months of command. As the current crisis unfolded, the SECDEF was hospitalized with a life-threatening illness, his Deputy was on a beach in Puerto Rico, and the White House knew nothing about any of this for a period of four to seven days. During that time, questions remain as to how the NCA was expected to function, especially considering the planning efforts on the eve of a major military operation in the Middle East (the strikes in Yemen).
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SAR EFFORTS CONTINUE FOR SAILORS MISSING IN GULF OF ADEN. TAIWAN ELECTIONS RAISE TENSIONS IN REGION//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Navy forces continue to search for two sailors that went missing on Saturday. Pentagon statements indicate that the sailors were SEALs who went missing during a boarding operation. No further details at this time.
Despite American airstrikes, Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues largely unabated. This morning, the UKMTO reported a missile strike on an as yet unidentified merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
This morning, Qatar announced their cessation of LNG shipping through the Red Sea, in response to U.S. targeting. AC: Qatar provides approximately 13% of the LNG consumed by western Europe, all of which was transported via the Red Sea route.
Far East: Recent elections in Taiwan have exacerbated tensions with China. Following the election win of Lai Ching-te and the third consecutive win for Taiwan’s incumbent ruling party, the White House responded by issuing the statement that “We do not support independence”. AC: This continues the creeping departure from the long-standing policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ regarding Taiwanese independence. As China will be looking at this election as an exacerbation of Taiwanese independence sentiments, China will likely be conducting major military drills in response to the election results.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – Further reports indicate the gross negligence surrounding SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization. Follow on information indicates that, during Austin’s initial transfer of command while under anesthesia, his Deputy (Kathleen Hicks) did not cancel her beach vacation in Puerto Rico, remaining outside the United States during this crisis of command.
Washington D.C. – Protesters supporting Palestine and Yemen breached White House security Saturday night, breaking through an outer perimeter fence.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The Dr. Strangelove-esque risks clearly and openly presented by senior defense officials are not simply grievances of a personal or political nature, but indicative of the gross incompetency within the National Command Authority (NCA) that has resulted in exceptionally grave strategic vulnerabilities being presented to the world. As a reminder, following the Chinese Spy Balloon incident last year, a slew of firings swept through STRATCOM, with many senior leaders being relieved of command. Many of these firings continue; even as recently as last September the commander of the 9th Bomb Squadron was relieved after only a few months of command. As the current crisis unfolded, the SECDEF was hospitalized with a life-threatening illness, his Deputy was on a beach in Puerto Rico, and the White House knew nothing about any of this for a period of four to seven days. During that time, questions remain as to how the NCA was expected to function, especially considering the planning efforts on the eve of a major military operation in the Middle East (the strikes in Yemen).
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
👍121🫡84🤡16🌭12❤10👾5💩4🦄4🤔3🔥2🍌2
//The Wire//1930Z January 16, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING ESCALATE. IRAN TARGETS ALLEGED MOSSAD SPY BASES IN IRAQ.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Attacks in the Red Sea intensify following U.S. targeting in Yemen. This morning, the M/V ZOGRAFIA was struck with a cruise missile in the southern Red Sea. Yesterday, the American-owned M/V GIBRALTAR EAGLE was also struck with a missile in the Gulf of Aden.
Middle East: Overnight, multiple targets within Erbil, Iraq were struck with multiple ballistic missiles originating from Iran. Iranian statements indicate this attack was conducted in response to the terror attack in Kerman weeks ago. Targets in Syria were also struck as IRGC forces carry out the largest ballistic missile attack in recent memory.
In Gaza, tensions between Egypt and Israel have intensified over the past few days as Israeli forces seek to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor. This thin strip of land along the Israeli-Egyptian border has served as a diplomatic buffer zone between Israel and Egypt following the 1979 peace treaty that officially halted the multiple conflicts in the region until that time. As Israel has sought to occupy this diplomatic no-mans-land (allegedly to halt the flow of weapons into Gaza), tensions in the region have been exacerbated. Egypt has previously stated that taking the Philadelphi corridor was a “red line”, and last night skirmishes were reported between Egyptian and Israeli troops along the border.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, Yemeni leadership has constantly stated that a ceasefire in Gaza would result in a cessation of targeting in the Red Sea. As this option is completely off the table among warring parties, and the U.S. is unable to stop Yemeni targeting, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea will likely continue. The war in Yemen, while largely a civil conflict, has also involved a coalition of Arab states since the beginning. A coalition of 10 Arab states has been waging war in Yemen since 2015 (along with the support from western powers), with the goal of ousting the Houthi-controlled government.
Despite initial reporting, the U.S. Consulate in Erbil was not targeted by IRGC forces last night. The closest location targeted was a private mansion approximately 3 miles NE of the U.S. Consulate, that was allegedly serving as a headquarters for Mossad. This location (IVO 38S MF 22091 18152) was the home of Peshraw Dizayee, the leader of Falcon Group, a large conglomerate of corporations involved with security, construction, real estate, oil and gas, cosmetics, and technology. This location was struck as Dizayee was allegedly conducting a meeting with four Mossad agents. The nature of this meeting appears to have coincided with a birthday party for Dizayee’s infant daughter (also killed in the attack), who would have turned one year old on Jan 25th. Also at the gathering was Karam Mikhail (an oil tycoon and friend of Dizayee), who was also killed in the attack.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING ESCALATE. IRAN TARGETS ALLEGED MOSSAD SPY BASES IN IRAQ.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Attacks in the Red Sea intensify following U.S. targeting in Yemen. This morning, the M/V ZOGRAFIA was struck with a cruise missile in the southern Red Sea. Yesterday, the American-owned M/V GIBRALTAR EAGLE was also struck with a missile in the Gulf of Aden.
Middle East: Overnight, multiple targets within Erbil, Iraq were struck with multiple ballistic missiles originating from Iran. Iranian statements indicate this attack was conducted in response to the terror attack in Kerman weeks ago. Targets in Syria were also struck as IRGC forces carry out the largest ballistic missile attack in recent memory.
In Gaza, tensions between Egypt and Israel have intensified over the past few days as Israeli forces seek to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor. This thin strip of land along the Israeli-Egyptian border has served as a diplomatic buffer zone between Israel and Egypt following the 1979 peace treaty that officially halted the multiple conflicts in the region until that time. As Israel has sought to occupy this diplomatic no-mans-land (allegedly to halt the flow of weapons into Gaza), tensions in the region have been exacerbated. Egypt has previously stated that taking the Philadelphi corridor was a “red line”, and last night skirmishes were reported between Egyptian and Israeli troops along the border.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, Yemeni leadership has constantly stated that a ceasefire in Gaza would result in a cessation of targeting in the Red Sea. As this option is completely off the table among warring parties, and the U.S. is unable to stop Yemeni targeting, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea will likely continue. The war in Yemen, while largely a civil conflict, has also involved a coalition of Arab states since the beginning. A coalition of 10 Arab states has been waging war in Yemen since 2015 (along with the support from western powers), with the goal of ousting the Houthi-controlled government.
Despite initial reporting, the U.S. Consulate in Erbil was not targeted by IRGC forces last night. The closest location targeted was a private mansion approximately 3 miles NE of the U.S. Consulate, that was allegedly serving as a headquarters for Mossad. This location (IVO 38S MF 22091 18152) was the home of Peshraw Dizayee, the leader of Falcon Group, a large conglomerate of corporations involved with security, construction, real estate, oil and gas, cosmetics, and technology. This location was struck as Dizayee was allegedly conducting a meeting with four Mossad agents. The nature of this meeting appears to have coincided with a birthday party for Dizayee’s infant daughter (also killed in the attack), who would have turned one year old on Jan 25th. Also at the gathering was Karam Mikhail (an oil tycoon and friend of Dizayee), who was also killed in the attack.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
🫡91👍59❤8🌭8🗿8🤯4🥰2👾2⚡1🆒1
//The Wire//2130Z January 17, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Iran continues to conduct ballistic missile strikes. Strikes have been reported in Pakistan, targeting alleged Israeli-linked groups within southwestern Pakistan. Strikes have also been reported in Syria, targeting ISIS factions within the northwestern districts of the country.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues as before. This morning, another (as yet unidentified) commercial vessel was struck by a Houthi drone in the Gulf of Aden. This comes as reports surface indicating global insurers are restricting coverage for vessels transiting the Red Sea, due to the ongoing conflict.
Diplomatically, the White House has announced that the Houthi-controlled Yemeni government will be again classified as a specially designated global terrorist group next month. AC: As a reminder, the Houthi regime was previously classified as a specially designated global terrorist group and a Foreign Terrorist Organization (which is the most serious diplomatic classification that can be applied in this situation). In 2021, almost immediately after Biden’s inauguration, these classifications were removed by the State Department.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As more companies begin to divert logistics routes away from the Red Sea, many logistical sectors are preparing for this crisis to settle in for the long haul. Yemeni forces have so far mostly focused targeting efforts on container ships bound for western ports, or ships that are in some way affiliated with Israel (which current traffic deviations around the Cape suggest is substantial). However, an important distinction must be noted: The last two vessels targeted by Yemeni forces were not container ships…but rather bulk cargo vessels. Consequently, concerns are increasing that commodities may begin to feel the pressure, not just consumer goods bound for western ports. Additionally, POL and LNG tankers have not substantially been targeted by Yemen. If tankers begin to be targeted in earnest, more substantial economic impacts will likely not be able to be suppressed or manipulated by artificial financial markets.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Iran continues to conduct ballistic missile strikes. Strikes have been reported in Pakistan, targeting alleged Israeli-linked groups within southwestern Pakistan. Strikes have also been reported in Syria, targeting ISIS factions within the northwestern districts of the country.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni targeting of commercial shipping continues as before. This morning, another (as yet unidentified) commercial vessel was struck by a Houthi drone in the Gulf of Aden. This comes as reports surface indicating global insurers are restricting coverage for vessels transiting the Red Sea, due to the ongoing conflict.
Diplomatically, the White House has announced that the Houthi-controlled Yemeni government will be again classified as a specially designated global terrorist group next month. AC: As a reminder, the Houthi regime was previously classified as a specially designated global terrorist group and a Foreign Terrorist Organization (which is the most serious diplomatic classification that can be applied in this situation). In 2021, almost immediately after Biden’s inauguration, these classifications were removed by the State Department.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As more companies begin to divert logistics routes away from the Red Sea, many logistical sectors are preparing for this crisis to settle in for the long haul. Yemeni forces have so far mostly focused targeting efforts on container ships bound for western ports, or ships that are in some way affiliated with Israel (which current traffic deviations around the Cape suggest is substantial). However, an important distinction must be noted: The last two vessels targeted by Yemeni forces were not container ships…but rather bulk cargo vessels. Consequently, concerns are increasing that commodities may begin to feel the pressure, not just consumer goods bound for western ports. Additionally, POL and LNG tankers have not substantially been targeted by Yemen. If tankers begin to be targeted in earnest, more substantial economic impacts will likely not be able to be suppressed or manipulated by artificial financial markets.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
👍92🫡63🌭9❤8⚡3🍌3👀2🙏1
//The Wire//2330Z January 18, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PAKISTAN RETALIATES IN RESPONSE TO IRANIAN STRIKES. ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING INCREASE IN FREQUENCY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: In response to Iranian missile strikes, Pakistan strikes targets in Iran. Last night, ISIS forces in Iraq successfully downed an American MQ-9 Reaper near Baghdad. AC: This is likely a power-projection move that may coincide with recent politics in the region. A few days ago, the Iraqi Parliament voted to expel the United States from their nation. Obviously, the U.S. will continue ignoring Iraqi demands to leave (as this debate has come up several times over the 20-year occupation of Iraq). However, this political move (along with the war in Gaza) will likely result in local insurgent groups being incentivized to carry out more substantial attacks than routine harassment engagements.
Red Sea/HOA: Coalition forces continue to strike targets in Yemen. The vessel struck by a Yemeni drone yesterday has been identified as the M/V GENCO PICARDY, an American owned bulk cargo carrier. Today, two separate incidents were reported in the Gulf of Aden. This morning, another American-owned commercial vessel reported observing 4 drones in the western Gulf of Aden, one of which attempted to attack the vessel (unsuccessfully). Separately, a different unidentified vessel was attacked in the eastern Gulf of Aden in a similar fashion (also unsuccessfully).
-HomeFront-
USA: A Congressional subcommittee has revealed more details of domestic spying. In a letter to a department of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Rep. Jim Jordan outlines the investigative processes used by the Department of the Treasury (without any warrants or oversight) to spy on Americans. In the letter, USDT is alleged to flag certain financial transactions (via MCC codes) as being indicative of terrorism. Such extremism indicators are very broad, including purchasing firearms, renting cars, sporting goods, etc. In addition to flagging purchases by certain vendors, USDT analysis also includes specific keyword searches of specific transactions, to include words like MAGA and TRUMP. The letter also alleges that the purchase of religious texts is enough for the USDT to flag a taxpayer as potentially being a terrorist threat.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The reports indicating domestic American financial surveillance are not new issues; many scandals have broken out regarding illegal surveillance of taxpayers’ purchases over the years.
In the Red Sea, the intensification of targeting will likely continue as US airstrikes prove less than effective in preventing attacks on commercial shipping.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PAKISTAN RETALIATES IN RESPONSE TO IRANIAN STRIKES. ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING INCREASE IN FREQUENCY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: In response to Iranian missile strikes, Pakistan strikes targets in Iran. Last night, ISIS forces in Iraq successfully downed an American MQ-9 Reaper near Baghdad. AC: This is likely a power-projection move that may coincide with recent politics in the region. A few days ago, the Iraqi Parliament voted to expel the United States from their nation. Obviously, the U.S. will continue ignoring Iraqi demands to leave (as this debate has come up several times over the 20-year occupation of Iraq). However, this political move (along with the war in Gaza) will likely result in local insurgent groups being incentivized to carry out more substantial attacks than routine harassment engagements.
Red Sea/HOA: Coalition forces continue to strike targets in Yemen. The vessel struck by a Yemeni drone yesterday has been identified as the M/V GENCO PICARDY, an American owned bulk cargo carrier. Today, two separate incidents were reported in the Gulf of Aden. This morning, another American-owned commercial vessel reported observing 4 drones in the western Gulf of Aden, one of which attempted to attack the vessel (unsuccessfully). Separately, a different unidentified vessel was attacked in the eastern Gulf of Aden in a similar fashion (also unsuccessfully).
-HomeFront-
USA: A Congressional subcommittee has revealed more details of domestic spying. In a letter to a department of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), Rep. Jim Jordan outlines the investigative processes used by the Department of the Treasury (without any warrants or oversight) to spy on Americans. In the letter, USDT is alleged to flag certain financial transactions (via MCC codes) as being indicative of terrorism. Such extremism indicators are very broad, including purchasing firearms, renting cars, sporting goods, etc. In addition to flagging purchases by certain vendors, USDT analysis also includes specific keyword searches of specific transactions, to include words like MAGA and TRUMP. The letter also alleges that the purchase of religious texts is enough for the USDT to flag a taxpayer as potentially being a terrorist threat.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The reports indicating domestic American financial surveillance are not new issues; many scandals have broken out regarding illegal surveillance of taxpayers’ purchases over the years.
In the Red Sea, the intensification of targeting will likely continue as US airstrikes prove less than effective in preventing attacks on commercial shipping.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
👍96🫡58❤13🤬8🌭8🍌3🙏1
//The Wire//2330Z January 19, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES BEGIN TARGETING AMERICAN OIL TANKERS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict continues in Gaza. Over the past few days, fighting along the northern border with Lebanon has intensified following Israeli raids. Hezbollah has also increased rocket attacks, with the Israeli port city of Haifa being struck with rockets overnight.
Red Sea/HOA: The vessel targeted yesterday in the eastern Gulf of Aden has been identified as the M/V CHEM RANGER, an American-owned tanker vessel. This marks the first deliberate targeting of an American-owned tanker so far in this conflict.
Far East: China continues military drills in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, following Taiwanese elections last week.
-HomeFront-
USA: Congress quietly passes a stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. The funding bill, passed with bipartisan support, will fund the government until March 1.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Information is limited and contradictory as to the damage sustained in attack on the M/V CHEM RANGER. CENTCOM claims that both cruise missiles fired at the vessel missed. Other sources claim that the missiles did hit the vessel, resulting in severe damage. At this time independent verification cannot be conducted to verify either claim.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES BEGIN TARGETING AMERICAN OIL TANKERS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Conflict continues in Gaza. Over the past few days, fighting along the northern border with Lebanon has intensified following Israeli raids. Hezbollah has also increased rocket attacks, with the Israeli port city of Haifa being struck with rockets overnight.
Red Sea/HOA: The vessel targeted yesterday in the eastern Gulf of Aden has been identified as the M/V CHEM RANGER, an American-owned tanker vessel. This marks the first deliberate targeting of an American-owned tanker so far in this conflict.
Far East: China continues military drills in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait, following Taiwanese elections last week.
-HomeFront-
USA: Congress quietly passes a stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. The funding bill, passed with bipartisan support, will fund the government until March 1.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Information is limited and contradictory as to the damage sustained in attack on the M/V CHEM RANGER. CENTCOM claims that both cruise missiles fired at the vessel missed. Other sources claim that the missiles did hit the vessel, resulting in severe damage. At this time independent verification cannot be conducted to verify either claim.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
👍94🫡63🗿6⚡5🌭4👀4❤1
//The Wire//1830Z January 20, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICTS IN GAZA AND RED SEA CONTINUE. US BORDER CRISIS REMAINS TENSE//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Tensions between the U.K. and Russia increase as Russia plans to halt a 1956 agreement allowing British fishing companies to operate within the Barents Sea. This comes as NATO plans to launch the largest military exercises conducted in Europe in decades, with approximately 90,000 soldiers participating in exercises over the next few months. These exercises are scheduled to begin next week.
Middle East: Conflict in Gaza remains kinetic as before. Independent media coverage falters as censorship quietly increases on social media. Targeting of US military bases in Iraq and Syria increases following high tensions in the region.
Red Sea/HOA: Targeting of western-based shipping remains constant as the US Navy continues to intercept many missiles targeting shipping. Houthi forces in Yemen have announced that Russian and Chinese shipping will not be targeted, and ships from these nations are granted freedom of passage through the Red Sea.
-HomeFront-
TX: State Troopers have begun arresting illegals that cross the border on trespassing charges. This is a substantial change in policy as previously most illegal immigrants entering the US were processed by CBP and released into the US. This move comes as tensions escalate between state and federal forces, following Texas’ seizure of the Eagle Pass border crossing a few weeks ago. AC: As a reminder, the Biden regime issued Texas the ultimatum of withdrawing from the area and allowing CBP agents access to the border so as to facilitate illegal immigration more efficiently. This ultimatum expired yesterday, and while Texas did allow CBP agents access to the adjacent boat launch, Texas is still maintaining control of Eagle Pass.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the 2024 election season creeps closer, a palpable increase in information warfare and narrative shaping has been observed across multiple domains. On social media, a slow-speed crackdown on alternative media personalities has been noted on Twitter/X as many conservative influencers report a radical change in analytics on the platform. This appears to largely be centered around journalists’ coverage of the events in Gaza; the censorship of which has taken the textbook approach of waiting until the news stories die down, then censoring personalities once the media spotlight has shifted to another topic. Similarly, many celebrities, pundits, and even political heads of state have observably changed political views and behavioral patterns with little explanation as to the urgency and speed of their narrative shift. Likewise, MSM reporting has taken an observably hostile tone, with one MSNBC “legal expert” floating the idea of Biden launching a preemptive kinetic strike on Mar-a-Lago. The content of rhetoric observed at the WEF has also recently become more openly hostile as powerful non-state actors attempt to counter resistance to their strategic plans. This perceivable increase in hostile rhetoric is almost certainly linked with the upcoming election season. However, as information warfare takes center stage, the discernment of truth will be much more difficult moving into 2024.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CONFLICTS IN GAZA AND RED SEA CONTINUE. US BORDER CRISIS REMAINS TENSE//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Tensions between the U.K. and Russia increase as Russia plans to halt a 1956 agreement allowing British fishing companies to operate within the Barents Sea. This comes as NATO plans to launch the largest military exercises conducted in Europe in decades, with approximately 90,000 soldiers participating in exercises over the next few months. These exercises are scheduled to begin next week.
Middle East: Conflict in Gaza remains kinetic as before. Independent media coverage falters as censorship quietly increases on social media. Targeting of US military bases in Iraq and Syria increases following high tensions in the region.
Red Sea/HOA: Targeting of western-based shipping remains constant as the US Navy continues to intercept many missiles targeting shipping. Houthi forces in Yemen have announced that Russian and Chinese shipping will not be targeted, and ships from these nations are granted freedom of passage through the Red Sea.
-HomeFront-
TX: State Troopers have begun arresting illegals that cross the border on trespassing charges. This is a substantial change in policy as previously most illegal immigrants entering the US were processed by CBP and released into the US. This move comes as tensions escalate between state and federal forces, following Texas’ seizure of the Eagle Pass border crossing a few weeks ago. AC: As a reminder, the Biden regime issued Texas the ultimatum of withdrawing from the area and allowing CBP agents access to the border so as to facilitate illegal immigration more efficiently. This ultimatum expired yesterday, and while Texas did allow CBP agents access to the adjacent boat launch, Texas is still maintaining control of Eagle Pass.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the 2024 election season creeps closer, a palpable increase in information warfare and narrative shaping has been observed across multiple domains. On social media, a slow-speed crackdown on alternative media personalities has been noted on Twitter/X as many conservative influencers report a radical change in analytics on the platform. This appears to largely be centered around journalists’ coverage of the events in Gaza; the censorship of which has taken the textbook approach of waiting until the news stories die down, then censoring personalities once the media spotlight has shifted to another topic. Similarly, many celebrities, pundits, and even political heads of state have observably changed political views and behavioral patterns with little explanation as to the urgency and speed of their narrative shift. Likewise, MSM reporting has taken an observably hostile tone, with one MSNBC “legal expert” floating the idea of Biden launching a preemptive kinetic strike on Mar-a-Lago. The content of rhetoric observed at the WEF has also recently become more openly hostile as powerful non-state actors attempt to counter resistance to their strategic plans. This perceivable increase in hostile rhetoric is almost certainly linked with the upcoming election season. However, as information warfare takes center stage, the discernment of truth will be much more difficult moving into 2024.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
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//The Wire//2130Z January 22, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SCOTUS RULES AGAINST TEXAS’ ACTIONS TO PREVENT ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Virgin Atlantic Airways Flight 127 (originally scheduled to depart Manchester, U.K. for New York) was canceled after a boarding passenger looked out their window and noticed four missing screws from the aircraft’s wing. The flight was canceled to allow more time for more thorough maintenance inspections.
Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. Navy has called off the search for the two SEALs that went missing during operations in the region last week. This marks the first American deaths affiliated with the Red Sea Crisis. This comes as initial reports indicate the European Union preparing plans for a Large Scale Combat Operation in Yemen. AC: Though details are very unconfirmed, Yemen’s actions to restrict western trade routes will likely result in some action from European powers. So far OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has largely been a failure, despite limited success in downing Houthi missiles and drones. However, as total security cannot be guaranteed and Yemeni strikes have been effective, western nations have likely been weighing more substantial options since this crisis began.
Far East: Chinese military actions IVO the Taiwan Strait continue. Over the weekend, Taiwan detected 6x Spy Balloons in addition to Chinese aircraft and ships conducting exercises in the region.
-HomeFront-
TX: The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Biden regime, allowing federal agents to remove razor wire on the U.S. southern border. No opinions were provided with this ruling. AC: All eyes are on Texas as citizens await what could be a serious flashpoint. The idea of state’s rights vs. federal rights is obviously a hot-button issue well seated in our nation’s history. As such, this ruling is probably more serious than one may realize at first, being largely representative of sentiments that have been bubbling for decades (possibly longer).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While it is unclear as to if a maintenance oversight would have resulted in catastrophic failure aboard flight VS127, the failure of complex systems that may result in catastrophe remains a concern for most. This incident is by no means out of the ordinary in being the latest continuation of long-standing deficiencies in the commercial aviation world. However, as more eyes are being more observant of issues in aviation, it is easy to forget that extremely concerning and slipshod maintenance practices are the industry standard in commercial aviation. Fortunately, more citizens are becoming more situationally aware of the rising risks in commercial aviation, from passengers having to visually inspect their aircraft for missing parts, to the concerning hiring practices of pilots. Consequently, situational awareness is becoming more essential for survival in industries that historically have been working at the level of the barest minimum of competency for decades.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SCOTUS RULES AGAINST TEXAS’ ACTIONS TO PREVENT ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Virgin Atlantic Airways Flight 127 (originally scheduled to depart Manchester, U.K. for New York) was canceled after a boarding passenger looked out their window and noticed four missing screws from the aircraft’s wing. The flight was canceled to allow more time for more thorough maintenance inspections.
Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. Navy has called off the search for the two SEALs that went missing during operations in the region last week. This marks the first American deaths affiliated with the Red Sea Crisis. This comes as initial reports indicate the European Union preparing plans for a Large Scale Combat Operation in Yemen. AC: Though details are very unconfirmed, Yemen’s actions to restrict western trade routes will likely result in some action from European powers. So far OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has largely been a failure, despite limited success in downing Houthi missiles and drones. However, as total security cannot be guaranteed and Yemeni strikes have been effective, western nations have likely been weighing more substantial options since this crisis began.
Far East: Chinese military actions IVO the Taiwan Strait continue. Over the weekend, Taiwan detected 6x Spy Balloons in addition to Chinese aircraft and ships conducting exercises in the region.
-HomeFront-
TX: The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Biden regime, allowing federal agents to remove razor wire on the U.S. southern border. No opinions were provided with this ruling. AC: All eyes are on Texas as citizens await what could be a serious flashpoint. The idea of state’s rights vs. federal rights is obviously a hot-button issue well seated in our nation’s history. As such, this ruling is probably more serious than one may realize at first, being largely representative of sentiments that have been bubbling for decades (possibly longer).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While it is unclear as to if a maintenance oversight would have resulted in catastrophic failure aboard flight VS127, the failure of complex systems that may result in catastrophe remains a concern for most. This incident is by no means out of the ordinary in being the latest continuation of long-standing deficiencies in the commercial aviation world. However, as more eyes are being more observant of issues in aviation, it is easy to forget that extremely concerning and slipshod maintenance practices are the industry standard in commercial aviation. Fortunately, more citizens are becoming more situationally aware of the rising risks in commercial aviation, from passengers having to visually inspect their aircraft for missing parts, to the concerning hiring practices of pilots. Consequently, situational awareness is becoming more essential for survival in industries that historically have been working at the level of the barest minimum of competency for decades.
Analyst: S2A
//END REPORT//
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