RR The Wire 2230Z December 22, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223022Z DEC 23
ICOD: 213022Z DEC 23
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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN RED SEA. DOMESTIC U.S. POLITICS REMAINS TUMULTUOUS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Tensions remain between the allies forming a maritime protection force in the Red Sea. Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is the multi-national Task Force being led by the U.S. Navy to provide security for ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. France, having initially agreed to take part and commit forces, has broken from the Task Force reportedly due to poor leadership and lack of organization. France will only be providing maritime security for French-flagged ships ATT. AC: This crisis has not only highlighted leadership problems within the U.S. DoD, but also the enduring problems within the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program. The LCS vessels produced in this program were designed from the keel up with this exact mission in mind, but following decades of scandal, very few of them are functional. So far, only traditional Aegis support (via DDGs and CGs) has provided protection for vessels in the Red Sea. However, as OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has not really gotten underway yet, the level of support the US Navy can provide in the region is not clear. Commercial shipping companies, either unwilling to wait for the US Navy to coordinate defenses, or lacking faith in this operation altogether, have continued to re-route ships around the Cape of Good Hope.
-Homefront-
USA: The recent scandal surrounding the removal of candidates from primary ballots has widened. Following the removal of Donald Trump from Colorado’s Republican primary ballot, several conservative-majority states have threatened to remove Joe Biden from their ballots. Several Democrat-run states have already removed Democrat candidates from their ballots, only allowing one candidate (Joe Biden) to run in their primary elections.
New York: A propane truck crashed into a railroad bridge in Glenville, resulting in a large explosion and subsequent fire. The driver remains hospitalized for severe burns. Initial reporting indicates the truck may have been over height for the bridge it was passing under.
-Analyst Comments-
It is difficult to determine how the situation will shake out regarding ballots. Right now, there is a lot of talk, but few actual documents to examine to arrive at a definitive analysis. It is not uncommon for state-level party leadership to ban certain candidates from running under their own party, but this year the number of Democrat-run states that have only allowed Biden to run under their banner seems higher. Likewise, the removal (or blocking in some way) of Republican candidates from running due to eligibility being removed via a Supreme Court decision is unheard of. The potential for divisions between states (and more importantly, state agencies) could lead to more serious flashpoints than standard civil unrest.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1900Z December 23, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 190023Z DEC 23
ICOD: 180023Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: MARITIME ATTACKS EXPAND TO INDIAN OCEAN. SPAIN, ITALY LEAVE RED SEA TF.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Indian Ocean: The M/V CHEM PLUTO was attacked with a kamikaze drone in the northern Indian Ocean, approximately 200 NM SW of Gujarat, India. AC: Though no one has yet claimed responsibility for this attack, this matches the typical attack profile of Iran, who has a history of conducting similar attacks in the same area.
Red Sea/HOA: Italy and Spain have followed France in leaving the US-lead maritime security coalition OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN. Both Spain and Italy have left this coalition due to the refusal to place their ships under US command. Some nations have claimed that they will be supporting the mission, but have pledged no naval support. Per the latest press releases, the Netherlands will be sending two staff officers, and Denmark will be sending one staff officer. Australia will be sending 11 staff officers, but no ships ATT. The U.K. has pledged to commit one ship (the HMS DIAMOND, already in theatre) to the operation.
-Analyst Comments-
This operation has (in effect) collapsed before it even began. The U.S. Navy does not need a coalition to provide maritime security, but the explicit lack of cooperation from allies speaks volumes on the diplomatic front. Since the dawn of naval warfare, projecting power around the globe via maritime supremacy has been a strong indicator of a nation’s standing in the world. If the U.S. has lost support for one for one of the simplest naval operations that is doctrinally possible (counter-piracy and missile defense against a non-state actor), this does not bode well for the U.S. Navy or for the United States’ standing in the world. This also highlights the issues of naval command that would be huge vulnerabilities in the event that conflict breaks out in the South China Sea. If the strongest naval force in human history cannot reliably defend unarmed merchant vessels, and leads the Task Force so poorly that allied naval powers publicly don’t want to be a part of it, there is little chance for success in a conflict that involves a near-peer threat.
Strategically, it is possible that the U.S. intends to launch an offensive operation against Yemen and/or Iran. After all, the US Navy has already demonstrated that, despite best efforts (and outstanding work on the part of the DDG crews so far) missile defense is challenging even under the best of conditions. As such, the U.S. is probably planning operations to strike targets within Yemen to ease the pressure on defensive efforts. However, even though DoD leadership has financial interest in Raytheon (the supplier for most of the munitions used by the Navy so far), the sheer lack of production capacity has cast doubts on what the DoD’s actual plan is. Following the Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza, US weapons stockpiles are at an all time low, and it’s highly likely that the DoD simply doesn’t have the munitions to launch a major offensive campaign. If OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is really a cover for a more offensive effort, this would explain major allies parting with the plan, as no major nationstate has the desire to become entangled in yet another war that even the U.S. can’t pay for. Though it is costing up to $2 million per missile to shoot down Yemeni missiles/drones, other nations may see this as vastly cheaper than launching a major military campaign.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z December 24, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z DEC 23
ICOD: 223024Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: SANTA CLAUS IS COMING TO TOWN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Santa has departed the North Pole, and has begun his yearly journey around the world. A U.S. military radar site in Greenland first picked up Santa’s sleigh a few minutes after take off. Just a few moments later, personnel at the arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway were able to see the red light of Rudolph’s nose as Santa flew overhead.
Owing to the tremendous speed at which Santa travels are various technological improvements that have been made to his sleigh this year. The lead Elf team in charge of maintenance and northern transportation has confirmed that new hypersonic upgrades have improved Santa’s sleigh, allowing him to reach speeds higher than before.
If you want to track Santa’s sleigh in real time, NORAD maintains a tracking website at: www.noradsanta.org.
Analyst Comments: Regular Wire reporting will continue on December 27th, pending any emergency issues. Thank you all for your support this year, and we hope that peace can prevail in the new year. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1700Z December 27, 2023
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DTG: 170027Z DEC 23
ICOD: 160027Z DEC 23
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BLUF: MAERSK ALLEGEDLY RESUMES SHIPPING IN RED SEA. U.S. BORDER CRISIS DEEPENS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Central America: Drought conditions in Panama create worst delays seen yet for ships transiting the Panama Canal. AC: As a reminder, the drought in Panama has been ongoing for months, causing delays for all ships transiting the choke point. Ironically, the region saw better-than-expected rainfall during November, which has alleviated the problems significantly. However, over the past few days the lake that feeds fresh water to the locks systems essential for the transit of ships has been too low, causing more delays. In the context of global shipping routes feeling strain, this is important to note as the cost increases incurred by shipping companies will be passed on to the consumer.
Red Sea/HOA: US CENTCOM announced that the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down twelve drones, three ASCMs, and two LACMs yesterday. These engagements come as Maersk announces the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea.
AC: It is unclear as to if Maersk will actually be resuming shipping through the region. Ships have been scheduled to make the transit over the coming weeks, but doctrinally speaking, the adversary always gets a vote in future plans. Yemen has demonstrated their ability to target ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, even with substantial U.S. Navy protection. If commercial ships begin to resume normal operations in the Red Sea, we will see an increase in targeting as Yemen has learned valuable Anti-Shipping combat experience over the past few weeks.
Gaza/Israel: The war continues as before. Israeli operations have expanded in Gaza as the fighting becomes even more brutal on both sides. Attacks from Hezbollah have intensified in the north as rocket attacks become more numerous and frequent. Hezbollah has also demonstrated the ability to regularly target locations deep inside Israel. AC: Though details are sketchy at best, some sources indicate that Hezbollah has targeted Iron Dome missile defense sites in Capri with laser-guided munitions. If these reports are true, the munitions in question are probably Basir 155mm artillery shells of likely Iranian origin (which itself is a copy of the old Soviet 2K25 Krasnopol system). Though unconfirmed reporting is not definitive by any means, if this is true this would be both a substantial escalation of the conflict in the north, and also likely the first operational test (by Hezbollah) of these advanced weapons systems.
-Homefront-
USA: Border crisis deepens following another surge of illegal immigrants during the Christmas holiday weekend. Some media outlets are reporting (via confidential sources) that around 30,000 illegals were detained over the weekend. AC: Though independent verification is not possible yet, these numbers are in line with the severity of the latest illegal immigrant surge. As a reminder, almost all of these “detentions” and “apprehensions” are temporary and do not result in immediate deportation, but rather transportation deeper into America’s interior.
Analyst Comments: The conflict in the Red Sea is the epitome of an age-old idea within the field of insurgency. The Houthis only have to be lucky once, the U.S. Navy has to be lucky every single time. If the U.S. Navy (and other coalition vessels) cannot provide reliable protection for commercial vessels, the global maritime community will eventually respond. Even the highly-manipulated financial markets (which have not responded appropriately to this crisis) cannot remain grounded in fantasy forever. In due time, missile shortages are going to catch up with the U.S. Navy…shortages that are not present in Yemen.

Though obviously not comparable to actual combat, the war on the information front remains intense with regards to conflict in the Middle East. Even the most carefully-worded new reports are no longer enough to prevent censorship and the loss of one’s livelihood, resulting in the cessation of reporting for many people who realize nothing can be done to stop what is happening. Conversely, pro-Palestinian demonstrations have intensified in Europe and the United States in direct response to events in Gaza, causing civil unrest concerns in most major U.S. cities. In the U.K. specifically, many of the issues caused by the conflict in Gaza have been conflated with immigration issues as most of the pro-Palestine demonstrations have been attended largely by immigrants.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 28, 2023
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DTG: 220028Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210028Z DEC 23
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BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN RED SEA. U.S. REBUILDS AIRFIELD IN PACIFIC, DRAWING IRE OF CHINA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: As maritime shipping begins to resume (to some degree) through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, interesting AIS transponder data has been noted by observers. In the metadata broadcast by a ship’s AIS transponder, short messages are being transmitted to dissuade targeting by Yemen. Over the past couple of weeks, it was common to see ships inserting the text “ARMED GUARDS ONBOARD” in the data transmitted by their transponder. Now, several ships have been noted to change this to “NO CONTACT ISRAEL” as a method of conveying that their ship has no affiliation with Israel. AC: Though how successful this will be is not known, it is interesting to note as this is yet another overt demonstration of the lack of confidence in the protection provided by naval vessels. As a reminder, Yemeni forces have ordered all ships to leave their AIS transponders on, whereas some reports indicate vessels being urged by various authorities to turn off their transponders when transiting the Red Sea to avoid targeting. This complicates efforts to identify the true number of vessels transiting the choke point. So far, many maritime shipping companies appear to be “splitting the difference” and mitigating risk by sending some ships through the Red Sea, and others around the Cape.
South Pacific: Chinese officials have urged defense forces to remain on “high alert” over the coming months, in response to U.S. strategic moves in the region. The U.S. is currently refurbishing an old WWII airbase on Tinian Island, a sparsely populated island approximately 90 NM north of Guam. The U.S. airbase on this island was abandoned in 1947, and recently efforts have been undertaken to reclaim the airfield from the jungle so as to serve as another critical staging base for aircraft in the event of a war in the South Pacific.
Analyst Comments: Reclaiming Tinian Island has historical implications as well, which are probably the reasoning behind Chinese apprehension (in addition to the obvious military reasons). Tinian Island was the base from which the 509th Composite Group was stationed, and the point of departure for the B-29 Superfortresses which dropped the atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Reclaiming this airfield not only reactivates a vital base of operations, but also sends a clear message to the entire South Pacific region.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 29, 2023
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DTG: 220029Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210029Z DEC 23
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BLUF: USS BATAAN TRANSITS INTO MED. ELECTORAL INFLUENCING OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN THE U.S.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: The USS BATAAN and USS CARTER HALL have transited north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, and will reform as a full ARG. As a reminder, these vessels were deployed for counter-piracy operations in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in direct response to Yemeni targeting. AC: These vessels, while technically not operating as a full ARG, were in effect acting as such over the past few weeks. As the ARG is one of the more flexible unit structures in the military, one of the main standard missions for U.S. Marines onboard these vessels is to provide onboard security teams for merchant vessels passing through high-risk areas, if the situation calls for it. This is a long-standing mission set, and one that even China has routinely employed themselves for over a decade as part of their enduring counter-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. The departure of the BATAAN rules this out as a COA for countering the threats in the region. The only security missions provided by the U.S. Navy during this crisis have involved missile defense.
-Homefront-
USA: Events regarding ballots continue as the Maine Secretary of State unilaterally removes Trump from their state’s primary ballot. This follows Colorado re-admitting Trump to their state’s primary ballot. Several conservative-led states have threatened to remove Biden from their state’s primary ballots, though it is not yet clear as to how any of these moves will actually work out.
Analyst Comments: At the risk of laying unnecessary criticism on the forces involved, the USS BATAAN leaving theatre at a high-risk juncture does not fit with the U.S. Navy’s mission of power projection and deterrence, and provides a morale boost for Yemeni forces, who have already interpreted this move as both a victory, and as confirmation that the U.S. will not be conducting any amphibious operations within Yemen. Allowing credit where credit is due, the fleet of DDGs still O/S in the region continue to engage Yemeni drones and cruise missiles.
In the U.S. electoral shenanigans will likely continue well into the new year, but at the moment it’s not possible to determine how this situation will shake out. Until concrete actions are undertaken, the claims being made are just talk. Virtually no one is under the impression that legitimacy will be a factor in the 2024 election season, but the recent battles regarding primary ballots will likely be used as a jumping off point for more serious actions later in the year.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z December 30, 2023
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 220030Z DEC 23
ICOD: 210030Z DEC 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN EUROPE. SHIPPING REMAINS STAGNANT IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Local authorities in many nations have substantially increased their threat postures in response to threats to New Year’s Eve events. Police in Paris have established significant security protocols as pro-Palestine demonstrations are expected to disrupt public gatherings. Similar efforts are underway in Germany as local authorities claim to have received credible threats to the Cologne Cathedral on New Year’s Eve. In London today local demonstrations deteriorated into civil unrest. AC: Throughout the U.K. much of the unrest seen is no longer accurately described as strictly “pro-Palestinian”. Many of the riots do not have the flavor of being affiliated with the Palestinian cause. For instance, the riots in London today were attended by Eritrean, Ethiopian, and Somali illegal immigrants, who began fighting amongst each other regarding recent political events in these nations.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemen continues to target commercial vessels allegedly affiliated with Israel. The U.S. Navy continues to report daily interceptions of cruise missiles and drones. As some vessels have possibly turned off their AIS transponders for security purposes, it’s difficult to determine how many vessels are indeed transiting the Red Sea again. However, it is clear that traffic through the region has not returned to normal levels.
Analyst Comments:
Though very little information remains public regarding specific threats, the recent history of disruptions of Christmas events throughout western Europe and the U.S. corroborates the theory that New Year’s celebrations will also be targets for demonstrations which may turn violent. As western nations import immigrants at astonishing rates, the importation of far-flung conflicts is inevitable. As such, categorizing everything from peaceful protests to deliberate insurgent attacks is not easy. At a minimum, increased police presence is expected at most public events due to the wildly variable threat environment.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z January 01, 2024
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DTG: 220001Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210001Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. YEMENI ATTACK BOATS SUNK IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Pacific: Over two dozen earthquakes shook the western prefectures of Japan this morning. Some of these earthquakes reached an estimated magnitude of 7.5-7.6, triggering tsunami warnings and evacuation notices for much of Japan’s west coast. So far, the tsunami threat has appeared to be low, with waves only reaching a few feet higher than normal tides.
Red Sea/HOA: Yemeni attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. Navy vessels intensifies. Yesterday the Maersk-owned M/V HANGZHOU reported being struck with a cruise missile. Following the attack, the vessel was attacked by Yemeni forces in four small boats. The embarked security team was successful in repelling boarders. Helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and the USS GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress calls from the HANGZHOU, and were fired upon by the occupants of the attacking vessels. U.S. forces returned fire, killing the crew and sinking three of the four attacking vessels.
Middle East: Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria intensify in response to the war in Gaza. Various types of weapons have been employed in these recent attacks, ranging from conventional Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons such as rockets and mortars to advanced kamikaze drones. AC: Word on the severity of these attacks is hard to come by as CENTCOM has not been entirely forthcoming with damage reports, for obvious Operational Security (OPSEC) reasons. However, as more sophisticated (and larger) munitions begin to be used in significant numbers, the threats posed to most U.S. military bases in the Middle East will remain elevated.
Europe: Queen Margrethe II of Denmark has unexpectedly announced that she will abdicate the throne in January, passing on the seat of monarchy to her son Crown Prince Frederik (who will become King Frederik X).
Analyst Comments:
Crown Prince Frederik has established himself as one of Denmark’s leading advocates on climate issues. Queen Margrethe has enjoyed the highest popularity of any monarch in Europe during the last several decades (second only, perhaps, to Queen Elizabeth II). Conversely, Crown Prince Frederik has not enjoyed the widespread support of the Danish people, possessing none of the diplomatic qualities of his mother. This sharp contrast in personalities and leadership style, at a time when Europe is desperate for any form of half-way decent leadership, combined with the surprising circumstances of the abdication, will likely leave yet another nation in Europe on shaky ground moving into the new year.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z January 02, 2024
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DTG: 220002Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210002Z JAN 24
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BLUF: NEW YEARS VBIED ATTACK STRIKES ROCHESTER, NY. IRAN INCREASES PRESENCE PATROLS IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Diplomatic tensions escalate as an Iranian warship transits into the Red Sea in response to the sinking of Houthi boats. AC: As Iranian forces become more actively involved in the region, the nomenclature of Iranian vessels will become confusing as Iranian Naval organization is like none other. The IRIS ALBORZ (72) is classified by Iran to be a Frigate, but in international terms is really more characteristic of a Destroyer (DD), or a Guided-Missile Destroyer (DDG), depending on the upgrades present onboard. This vessel has been in the area for weeks, but has taken a more direct patrolling profile following the escalation of combat operations in theater. It is also important to note that Iran has strategically placed several intelligence collection vessels in the region, who the U.S. has accused of providing targeting information to Yemen.
-HomeFront-
NY: An attempted VBIED attack was conducted at the Kodiak Center in Rochester on New Year’s Eve. Details are extremely sketchy, but initial reporting indicates that a man attempted to carry out a possible Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack on the crowd gathered in attendance of a holiday concert at the venue, timing the attack for the end of the concert so as to achieve maximum success. Allegedly, the attacker (who has been identified as Michael Avery) filled a rental vehicle with over a dozen containers of gasoline and attempted to conduct a vehicle-ramming attack at the entrance of the theater. An Uber driver (unaware of this plot) was inadvertently involved in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) with the assailant as he made his attack run, which ignited the gasoline prematurely. FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) personnel have been observed investigating the hotel room where the attacker staged before the attack, suggesting more deliberate planning was involved in this attack. A suicide note was allegedly found at this location.
So far, even the casualty count has been difficult to determine as official statements have not been forthcoming with information. However, piecing together what information is public, two people (possibly the people in the Uber vehicle) were killed, and the assailant also reportedly died of burns at a local hospital shortly after the attack. Three people were also injured in the attack.
Analyst Comments:
Details regarding the Rochester VBIED attack are few and far between as local authorities have likely been issued orders to conceal details of the investigation as it has become a cultural standard to conceal the mere occurrence of terror attacks from the general public. As such, eyewitness reports from locals are really the only sources for information. Much like the Rainbow Bridge Incident from a few weeks ago (the official story of which still has many intelligence gaps, and is generally dubious in nature), follow-on information will likely not be made public. There are additional details that may indicate that this incident was not isolated, and may have involved other crimes in the general vicinity before the attack. However, details are again too unreliable for any concrete links to be made at this time.
However, much operational intelligence can still be gained from this incident. The attacker chose a soft target comprised of large groups of unarmed people, in a location where he knew vehicle barriers would not be emplaced. This event will largely be out of the public consciousness within a week, but heightened situational awareness is recommended moving forward into the new year, especially in public venues that host large gatherings of unarmed people.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2200Z January 03, 2024
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DTG: 220003Z JAN 24
ICOD: 210003Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT INTESIFIES FOLLOWING TERROR ATTACK IN IRAN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Tensions escalate throughout the region in response to multiple developing events. In Iran, a terror attack kills hundreds of citizens as multiple explosions occur at a memorial ceremony at Qassem Soleimani's gravesite in Kerman. Attacks on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria have increased in severity, and U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea have experienced more deliberate targeting by Yemeni forces over the past few days. Skirmishes along the Lebanese border with Israel, already having intensified over the past few days, were renewed in earnest following the attack in Iran. Heavy Hezbollah rocket attacks have targeted locations deep inside Israel, and fighting has broken out at border checkpoints and observation posts along the Lebanese border. AC: It is too soon to tell if this is a true, deliberate widening of the war, or if this is a limited/temporary response to the attack in Iran.
Red Sea/HOA: U.S. Naval forces continue to intercept Yemeni cruise missiles, which have been targeting both U.S. Navy ships, and the few ships transiting the Red Sea. Despite statements from shipping companies confirming the resumption of normal operations, very little commercial traffic is actually transiting the Red Sea.
Europe: German farmers plan a nationwide protest for January 8th. This demonstration is looking to be one of the largest in Europe’s recent history as multiple rail worker and trucking unions team up with agricultural associations to protest in opposition to several taxation issues.
Analyst Comments:
Always considering the fact that ships can turn off their AIS transponders, it’s still very clear that almost all commercial shipping is avoiding the Red Sea. For maritime safety reasons (and in order to transit the Suez Canal) ships have to turn on their transponders at some point in their journey. If ships were “disappearing” from tracking websites as they approach Yemen, then “reappearing” suddenly in the northern Red Sea, this would be a strong indicator of this tactic being used. After more than two weeks of crisis this does not appear to be the case, and almost all traffic that would be normally transiting the Red Sea, is now taking the longer route around Africa. Maritime shipping companies may commit to sending a handful of vessels through the Red Sea to mislead shareholders and keep up the pretenses that everything is fine, but sooner or later the impossibility of concealing merchant shipping realities will be acknowledged, almost certainly in the form of higher shipping costs. The follow-on effects of which will be felt by the average consumer.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 04, 2024
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DTG: 223004Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213004Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: MERCHANT SHIP HIJACKED IN ARABIAN SEA. SOME EPSTEIN DOCS RELEASED.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: An unidentified ship has reported being boarded by unknown assailants in the Arabian Sea. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center has reported the receipt of a distress call from the vessel, and that the crew has taken refuge in the ship’s Citadel (safe room). Due to the location of the hijacking (almost 500 NM east of Somalia), it’s possible that this is a standard piracy attempt not affiliated with Yemen. However, very few details are public at the moment.
Europe: Protests against the ruling Socialist party continue in Spain. Extremely widespread protests have been underway in Spain for almost two months, beginning in earnest after the attempted assassination of the Vox party leader on Nov 9. AC: In the context of the upcoming protests in Germany, it is important to remember the protests already underway throughout Europe. Despite millions of people taking part in demonstrations daily, most media outlets have not covered these protests in Spain.
-HomeFront-
USA: A number of court documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein network have been released to the public.
Analyst Comments:
As some of the Epstein documents flood social media, care must be taken to be observant of second and third order effects, which remain largely unknown. As important as it is for the average citizen to be aware of these details (if they aren’t already fully aware of the situation), equally as important is to not let these revelations distract from more operationally valuable information. On the one hand, it is unlikely that exceptionally powerful people would not be able to influence the release of these documents. On the other hand, in the event that truly “smoking-gun” information is released regarding Epstein’s clients, the potential for deception operations (including false-flags) to be carried out is high.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1830Z January 05, 2024
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DTG: 183005Z JAN 24
ICOD: 173005Z JAN 24
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BLUF: INDIA RESCUES HIJACKED SHIP. TENSIONS ESCALATE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Indian Naval forces conducted rescue operations onboard a hijacked vessel in the Arabian Sea. The vessel, now identified as the M/V LILA NORFOLK, was hijacked two days ago by unknown assailants. Upon boarding, Indian forces discovered that the hijackers had fled prior to the counterpiracy operation.
In the Red Sea, economic impacts to western shipping companies continue to be felt. Some estimates indicate that some companies have quadrupled their normal shipping rates in response to the fuel, maintenance, and administrative costs resulting from shifting to longer routes. Additionally, the surge of maritime traffic to the Cape Route has caused congestion at many ports in Africa, as most of the port facilities now required for refueling were not built to handle the capacity now expected of them. AC: As a reminder, most Chinese, Russian, and Iranian shipping through the region remains unhindered; it is only the primarily western-based shipping that is being impacted by Yemeni targeting.
Far East: Tensions escalate between North and South Korea in response to recent moves by both sides. A few weeks ago, Kim Jong Un signaled a radical shift in DPRK policy, namely the “impossibility” of Korean reunification. The idea of reunification has been removed from North Korean propaganda websites, confirming the shift in rhetoric. As the idea of reunification has been the bedrock of DPRK rhetoric for decades (as evidenced by the famous Arch of Reunification monument, among countless others), this change has caused diplomatic tensions between the North and South.
Yesterday, the diplomatic tensions transitioned into kinetic action, as DPRK forces conducted military exercises near South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island. The live-fire “exercises” were extremely close to the island, prompting evacuations. ROK forces have responded in kind, conducting military exercises in the same area.
-HomeFront-
SD: A B-1B Lancer strategic bomber crashed upon landing at Ellsworth Air Force Base at approximately 5:30 pm (local time) yesterday evening. All four crew members safely ejected from the aircraft. Initial reporting indicates the cause for the accident may have been due to weather conditions.
Analyst Comments:
Though the tensions on the Korean peninsula may seem to be a dire situation, tit-for-tat artillery exercises have been a mainstay of the Korean conflict for decades. So far, neither the North nor the South have fired into each other’s territory, but both have conducted provocation actions in the diplomatically ambiguous areas along the border. However, as tensions have been rising on the Korean peninsula for months, it is possible that accidents or diplomatic mistakes could cascade into creating more serious problems throughout the region.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1630Z January 06, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163006Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153006Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: MAERSK AGAIN SUSPENDS SHIPPING IN RED SEA.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Following the successful attack on the M/V HANGZHOU last week, Maersk announced a temporary pause of shipping through the Red Sea. Overnight, Maersk has announced an indefinite extension to the shipping pause in response to the realization that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not effective, despite best efforts.
AC: This strongly indicates what has been obvious for several days; that Maersk never seriously committed to returning traffic to the Red Sea, and instead gaslit investors into thinking that everything was fine. The fact that one of their first ships to resume travel was successfully struck with a cruise missile also indicates that naval forces in the region are not capable of providing enough missile defense to make travel viable for commercial shipping. Though details are hard to verify, Amazon, Walmart, and IKEA are among the companies already reportedly experiencing supply shortages due to the logistical problems created by the Red Sea Crisis.
-HomeFront-
USA: SECDEF Lloyd Austin has been hospitalized since Monday following alleged complications from an unknown elective procedure. This was disclosed to the public last night, approximately four days after the event first occurred. No further details are available at this time.
CA: Alaskan Airlines Flight 1282 bound for Ontario, California experienced an uncontrolled depressurization incident when one of the aircraft doors blew out mid-flight. No word yet on any passenger injuries.
Analyst Comments:
Though rapid depressurization incidents are rare, this incident is even more concerning as the aircraft was a Boeing 737-9 MAX, and is one of the newer aircraft in Alaska’s fleet. In response to this high-profile incident, Alaska has announced the grounding of all 737 MAX 9 aircraft in their fleet. As a reminder, Boeing’s 737 MAX program has been fraught with controversy over the past 2-3 years following multiple fatal crashes (most of which involved the new MCAS system, and not structural integrity issues). In November of 2020, the FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to issue certificates of airworthiness for this model of aircraft. Boeing was also fined by the FAA in 2021 for “exerting undue pressure” on aircraft inspectors.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z January 08, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233008Z JAN 24
ICOD: 223008Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION FOR MYSTERY ILLNESS.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Widespread protests begin in Germany in response to a variety of taxation and policy issues. So far, significant traffic disruptions have been reported in Berlin as the largely farmer-driven protest begins in earnest.
-HomeFront-
USA: Following the depressurization incident experienced by Alaskan Flight 1282, mass inspections of the Boeing 737 Max 9 platform have been underway for a few days. So far, United Airlines has reported finding loose bolts on several of their aircraft, in the same section of the aircraft that failed on Flight 1282.
TX: Developing reports indicate that a few minutes ago, an explosion occurred at the Sandman Hotel in Fort Worth. So far, many injuries have been reported. AC: Very early reports indicate this may have been the result of a gas leak, but as the situation is still developing, few details have been confirmed as of this report.
Washington D.C.: Further details regarding the hospitalization of SECDEF Lloyd Austin raise concerns within the National Command Authority. Details are also highly contradictory; originally Pentagon reports stated that Austin was hospitalized due to complications from a routine elective procedure. Now, details emerge that Austin was hospitalized in the ICU of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on New Years Day after suffering “severe pain”, strongly indicating the “elective procedure” detail was an outright lie. Additionally, Pentagon officials originally stated that the Deputy Secretary of Defense, Kathleen Hicks, was briefed on the situation and command was properly transferred to her during Austin’s hospitalization. Now, details emerge that Hicks had no idea of the severity of the hospitalization, and was actually on vacation at the time of the incident.
Analyst Comments: Though deception events surrounding powerful government officials are not new, the Office of the Secretary of Defense is not a random cabinet position. The SECDEF has a direct role to play in the use of strategic weapons. The POTUS, VPOTUS, and SECDEF must all unanimously concur on the release of nuclear weapons, for instance. Much political rhetoric surrounds the cognitive abilities of a Commander in Chief specifically with regards to the use of nuclear weapons, with good reason. However, one of the men who also has to concur with the POTUS’ orders went missing for four days, and the staff of his Deputy knew nothing about it. As such, this is no minor game of hooky. Even more concerning are the basic questions surrounding who was acting as SECDEF for several days, and what actions the staff officers of the SECDEF and acting-SECDEF undertook during this crisis-of-command.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 09, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223009Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213009Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: CIVIL CONFLICT BEGINS IN ECUADOR. SECDEF AUSTIN CONTINUES HOSPITALIZATION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: In Ecuador, President Noboa has declared a national state of emergency following cartel hostilities. Fighting broke out this morning following reports that the leader of the Los Choneros cartel, Adolfo Macías Villamar, has escaped from prison. Combat has broken out in many locations throughout Ecuador as cartel gunmen launch assaults on civilian centers with the apparent goal of taking hostages. So far, fighting has been reported in Guayaquil, Cuenca, Ambato, and several other cities.
An assault was launched on the television studio in Guayaquil, with gunmen taking the studio anchors hostage on live television. Explosions were reported IVO Fort Huancavilca in Guayaquil as military forces began mobilizing to retake strategic locations throughout Ecuador’s largest city. In Cuenca, prisoners at Torre Prison overpowered guards, and have been holding them hostage for several hours. Several videos have been posted by cartel-affiliated social media accounts confirming the execution of some hostages.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization continues, with few details regarding his current condition. However, Pentagon officials have stated that Austin was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, which was the origin of the initial medical treatment. According to the latest version of the story told by Pentagon officials, this illness mandated “elective” surgery, which resulted in complications and Austin’s subsequent hospitalization.
Analyst Comments: As the statements by defense officials continue to change between press briefings, and have contained outright lies, it is hard to believe any details currently being stated by the Pentagon. It is also unclear as to whom is currently carrying out the duties of SECDEF. As Austin is still hospitalized and has not been visually seen by the public since the beginning of this incident, coupled with the tone of Pentagon statements indicating the handing over of duties to his Deputy being a temporary action, it is possible that Austin retains the duties of SECDEF.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 10, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223010Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213010Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: SITUATION IN ECUADOR REMAINS TENSE. ATTACKS CONTINUE IN RED SEA. TUNNEL SYSTEM DISCOVERED IN NEW YORK.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
South America: Situation in Ecuador remains tense as military forces begin mobilization in most major cities. The initial hostilities have subsided following this mobilization, but sporadic gunfire and explosions continue to be reported in most major cities.
Europe: Farmer protests continue in Germany. As preliminary reports expected, this nationwide protest is one of the largest in Europe’s history, and has been met with widespread support from locals, despite causing significant transportation issues.
Red Sea/HOA: Impacts to western shipping continue as before. Yesterday, Yemeni forces conducted a complex attack on US Naval vessels and commercial shipping, using 18x drones, 2 ASCMs, and one ballistic missile. All were intercepted by coalition Naval vessels in the area.
-HomeFront-
NY: Controversy emerges surrounding events at the Chabad Lubavitch World Headquarters in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. Several days ago, viral content on social media emerged as unrest broke out upon city officials attempting to fill in a secret tunnel network beneath the facility. AC: As this is a highly controversial topic, accounts vary as to the origin, usage, contents, and extent of this tunnel system. However, most accounts so far suggest most of the digging was conducted relatively recently. Public works officials have not provided mapping data of how extensive the underground system is, but many local reports indicate structural integrity issues in the surrounding properties.
NY: James Madison High School was evacuated of students in order to serve as housing for illegal immigrants. Students will reportedly be attending classes remotely while the facility is being used to house approximately 2,000 illegals. Authorities claim this move is temporary due to severe weather conditions.
Washington D.C. – Correction to previous Wire: SECDEF Austin has prostate cancer, not pancreatic as previously reported. Further details released by Pentagon officials indicate Austin and his staff deliberately withheld most details surrounding his hospitalization. For instance, his Deputy was only told about his hospitalization two days after assuming command. White House staff were also not informed that Austin was undergoing a procedure that required general anesthesia, nor was the White House informed that the SECDEF had transferred command to his Deputy.
Analyst Comments: As SECDEF Austin has not been seen by the public for over a week, doubts begin to emerge following the Pentagon’s conflicting reports on his status. Based on interactions with the press, the White House only learned of the incident through media coverage, indicating that the POTUS going 7 days without speaking to the SECDEF is culturally viewed as normal.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2230Z January 11, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 223011Z JAN 24
ICOD: 213011Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: IRAN RE-HIJACKS OIL TANKER. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The M/V ST NIKOLAS (an oil tanker bound for Turkey) was hijacked by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 50 NM north of Oman. AC: There is more to this incident than meets the eye. This vessel previously went by a different name, the M/V SUEZ RAJAN, and was seized by the U.S. in 2022 for shipping Iranian oil in violation of sanctions. After waiting for the vessel to onload a payload of oil from Iraq, Iranian forces re-captured the vessel, along with the cargo of oil.
South America: Widespread military mobilization continues in Ecuador following the cartel violence that spread throughout the country several days ago.
Europe: Protests continue in Germany, Spain, Poland, Denmark, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and many other European nations demonstrating support or denouncement of a variety of issues. In addition to the pro-Palestine demonstrations which have become regular throughout Europe, many protests include demonstrations of solidarity with the farmer protests in Germany.
Red Sea/HOA: Conflict continues as before. Almost all commercial shipping destined for western nations remains committed to the Cape route, while local traffic through the Red Sea remains largely unaffected. AC: Though entirely unconfirmed rumor ATT, talks are reportedly underway among coalition forces that may involve conducting strikes within Yemen.
Analyst Comments: From the very beginning of the Red Sea Crisis, the elephant in the room has been the use of force within Yemen. As it has become clear that international shipping companies have no faith in the defenses provided by the US Navy, alternative plans have likely been on the table before OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN even began. However, conducting any strike (even limited strikes on launch sites) will have a direct impact on the fighting in Gaza. As Hezbollah has increasingly become more actively involved in the north, widening the conflict into Yemeni territory will almost certainly accelerate the pace of the Gaza War.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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PP The Wire 0130Z January 12, 2024
PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP
DTG: 013012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 010012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: USA/GBR CONDUCT AIRSTRIKES IN YEMEN. REGIONAL ATTACKS INTENSIFY IN KIND.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
Middle East: At approximately 0230 local time, British and American forces began conducting airstrikes within Yemen. Pentagon officials state that approximately 10 locations were targeted throughout the nation. Targeting has largely focused on the capital city of Sanaa, as well as the city of Tays and the port of Hodaydah. In response, Yemeni forces have launched substantial missile attacks on US vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
In response to these attacks, significant developments are currently underway throughout the region. Iranian officials have pledged support for Yemen, and most Iranian military forces have assumed a heightened state of readiness. Substantial attacks have been reported at many coalition bases in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has also been targeted with Indirect Fire (IDF) weapons.
Responses from regional power-players have varied. Saudi Arabia allowed the use of their airspace for the attack. Conversely, Oman has forbid the use of their airspace for this operation, and the United Arab Emirates has placed their forces on alert in response to coalition targeting.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, White House officials called a lid for today, so no comments have been made by POTUS regarding this operation. Also, SECDEF Lloyd Austin remains hospitalized, and has not been seen by the public for over 11 days. Considering these factors, it is not clear as to who authorized this operation at this time, or at which level of command and control this operation is being monitored from.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1730Z January 12, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 173012Z JAN 24
ICOD: 163012Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: TEXAS SEIZES BORDER CROSSING. YEMEN VOWS RETALIATION FOR STRIKES.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Following major airstrikes within Yemen, Houthi forces have vowed to retaliate. A few hours after the American and British attacks, Yemeni forces conducted an attack on a commercial shipping vessel. The attack was unsuccessful as the missile fired at the vessel missed, splashing down within 500m of the ship.
Around the region, an observable increase in rocket attacks originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon was noted last night, but no indicators of a major offensive effort are present yet.
Europe: Panic buying is underway in Sweden following statements by government officials regarding the possibility of war. Defense Minister Bohlin stated that “there could be war in Sweden”. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces reinforced these statements, urging the public that “On an individual level, you have to prepare yourself mentally”. AC: Though these statements are not out of the ordinary considering events in Europe, hearing such blunt admissions by high-ranking officials has been shocking for many Swedes. There are no indicators that war will break out in Sweden imminently, but as tensions remain extremely high throughout the continent, general preparedness is a prudent goal for citizens to consider.
-HomeFront-
TX: Significant developments are underway at the southern border. The State of Texas has seized land surrounding the infamous Shelby Park in Eagle Pass. TX National Guard forces have deployed in positions so as to block federal CBP agents from accessing the border. The adjacent boat launch also used by CBP is also now off limits to federal agents.
This move comes following months of federal agents cutting razor wire, removing barricades, and directly aiding and abetting illegal immigration. As a reminder, last week DHS officials confirmed that over 85% of all illegals encountered at the border are not currently being deported, but instead being released into the United States.
Washington D.C. – Congress voices objection to not approving airstrikes in a nation the U.S. is not at war with. Questions also remain following Pentagon statements that SECDEF Austin allegedly approved the strikes from his hospital bed.
Analyst Comments: Though tensions between agencies have been common at the southern US border for years, recent developments have shifted attitudes into more of an adversarial nature. As history has proven, the impacts that state vs. federal conflict can have are often underestimated before flashpoints occur. Likewise, the use of armed soldiers by both sides presents even more opportunities for substantial mistakes to be made.
Following the strikes in Yemen, the main question remains: “What happens next?”. Yemeni forces will likely repair or replace damaged facilities and equipment over the next few weeks. Calling into question the philosophical nature of an air war, it is hard to argue that even substantial targeting within a nation will be totally successful. As such, Yemen will be quick to prove that the strikes did not remove all of their combat power, and will likely increase targeting of US Navy vessels in the region. Commercial shipping companies will likely be hesitant to resume operations as one airstrike is not likely to reduce Yemeni capabilities enough for ships to become confident in transiting the Red Sea. Especially considering the Houthis are now overly motivated to carry out strikes on commercial shipping, to reaffirm their military dominance in the region.
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Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 1630Z January 13, 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163013Z JAN 24
ICOD: 153013Z JAN 24
CONTROLS: Public Release
QQQQ
BLUF: U.S. NAVY SAILORS MISSING AT SEA IN GULF OF ADEN.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM has confirmed that the U.S. Navy is currently conducting SAR operations as two sailors have been reported missing. Airstrikes within Yemen enter their second day as Pentagon officials continue to withhold details of this operation. Little information has been disclosed as to the size, scope, or duration of this mission.
Europe: Investigative journalist (and American citizen) Gonzalo Lira has died in a Ukrainian prison. Following previous run-ins with Ukrainian officials, he was ultimately incarcerated in May for allegedly promoting “Russian aggression” in video content that was critical of Zelensky. Communication with him was limited before his death, but he did confirm that he had been tortured prior to his final imprisonment (and subsequent disappearance) which resulted from him trying to flee the country.
Far East: In Japan, ANA Flight 1182 experienced an in-flight emergency, returning to Toyama airport after takeoff. Pilots noticed a crack in a cockpit window, prompting the Boeing 737-800 to perform a precautionary landing. The crack did not result in any depressurization or injuries to the crew.
-HomeFront-
TX: The DHS has filed an emergency motion with SCOTUS to stop Texas from securing the southern border. At the moment, it is unclear as to if the SCOTUS will take the case.
Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there has been no statement explaining the combat operations within Yemen in any detail. As Congress has not approved this operation, the details of the operation itself are not public; we do not know if this is a limited action, a temporary campaign, or the beginning of a war. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that “We’re not interested in…a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind here”. However, dropping bombs on a country is usually the defining characteristic of a conflict. Additionally, U.S. officials have urged commercial shipping to avoid the area. This is generally counterproductive for a military operation intended to increase freedom of navigation. Consequently, more shipping companies have announced a cessation of operations through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
As conflicting information abounds surrounding the war in Yemen, questions begin to emerge regarding potential U.S. casualties. Yemen claims to have destroyed several ships and aircraft, whereas the U.S. claims to have sustained no damage at all. Considering the intensity of Yemeni counterattacks, the truth is likely somewhere in between these extremes. Though quite impressive, U.S. Navy shipborne defenses are not infallible, falling prey to swarm attacks or intense concentrations of fire…the exact style of attack Yemeni forces are conducting. Yemeni targeting is primitive by comparison…but the competency crisis within the U.S. Navy is severe.
Missing sailors are unfortunately common; suicides and accidents occur quite frequently when on deployment. However, two sailors going missing at the same time is rare. It is even more rare for this to happen during a heightened state of readiness, and in the middle of combat operations when situational awareness is enhanced and complacency should be minimal.
Though this is highly speculative at this time, it is possible that the reports of missing sailors are linked to a successful Yemeni attack. It is impossible to determine in any case as ships at sea do not tend to host investigative journalists. Considering the sources, even in the rare case a U.S. Navy ship was successfully targeted, the only source for information would be the U.S. Navy itself, until the crew returned to port and had the option of leaking the information.