//The Wire//2300Z December 17, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RUSSIAN GENERAL ASSASSINATED IN MOSCOW.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: This morning General Igor Kirillov was assassinated at his apartment in Moscow as an IED-laden scooter was strategically parked outside his apartment. As he was exiting his home, an unknown assailant detonated the IED, killing him. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for the attack.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: This morning a large-scale motor vehicle accident occurred on the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway Bridge. Several dozen vehicles were involved in a pileup on the bridge (which is the longest bridge in the U.S.) possibly due to foggy conditions severely reducing visibility. AC: Though similar accidents are very common this time of year in the region, the scale of this accident (and the critical nature of the bridge itself) is noteworthy.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The assassination of Igor Kirillov is an exceptionally serious escalation of the war as he was the director of Russia’s department of Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Troops. Ukraine also immediately taking credit, instead of remaining quiet about the attack is also very likely to perceived as adding salt to the wound. Additionally, the graphic nature of bringing explosive, terror-style attacks to the city of Moscow (and publishing the video of the attack) will not be ignored by Russia, who will probably respond in kind via another IRBM strike, maybe targeting Kiev. Both Ukraine and Russia have sporadically relied upon assassinations throughout this conflict, however at this late hour, this is undoubtedly meant to escalate the situation even further.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2300Z December 18, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RUSSIA APPREHENDS ALLEGED KIRILLOV ASSASSIN. CONGRESS PROPOSES 1,500+ PAGE SPENDING BILL. MORE DRONE INCURSIONS REPORTED AT OHIO MILITARY BASE. CALIFORNIA DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY REGARDING BIRD FLU.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: As the investigation into the assassination of General Kirillov continues, one alleged assailant has been detained for his role in the attack. Allegedly, the unidentified attacker planted the IED, and managed the video camera which livestreamed the attack to a command center in Ukraine, which remotely detonated the IED. AC: Though none of this information is independently verifiable, perhaps more concerningly is the lack of Russia’s response to this attack. Russia will certainly respond in some manner, though at the moment the means by which this will occur is anyone’s guess.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: The “drone” saga continues as before, largely spurred on by recent contradictory governmental statements. Very few new sightings have occurred (possibly due to poor weather conditions reducing visibility throughout the region), however many people are still concerned that the drones (as in, the legitimate ones that can be discerned from commercial aircraft) are being operated by a foreign adversary. A few days ago the DoJ, DoD, and DHS issued a joint statement that none of this activity is abnormal and that all drone activity is either lawful civilian operation or a case of observers mistaking commercial aircraft for unmanned platforms.
Ohio: Following Friday’s airspace closure at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, more drone reports emerged this morning. Additional unmanned aerial platforms were observed flying over the base overnight, as well as early this morning.
Washington D.C. – The latest omnibus spending bill has caused concern in Congress due to its roughly 1,500 page length and the last-minute introduction of the bill which statistically suggests that no one has had time to read through it all. However, readers of the bill have already identified that Congress is allegedly trying to give itself a 40% pay raise, prompting a general state of outrage from taxpayers.
California: Governor Newsom has declared a state of emergency regarding the H5N1 bird flu outbreak. No human-to-human cases of transmission have been reported.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The recent statements by government agencies to address the New Jersey situation haven’t really alleviated concerns due to most people simply not believing anything federal agencies have to say. One surefire way to ensure that the American people think the drones are part of a secret government test, is to say that the drones are not part of a secret government test.
Perhaps most damningly is the contradiction of what government says, and what agencies do. For instance, the DHS says the drones aren’t a threat. However, the drones spotted all around the country are so little of a threat that it has become essential to deploy large scale defenses to protect against them, and to close airspace over critical military bases due to drone activity. For instance, in October, Langley Air Force Base issued a solicitation (Notice ID FA480025R0001) for counter-UAS netting to protect the F-22 Raptor fighter aircraft parked on the ramps at their airfield. The use of anti-drone netting is a wise force-protection move, however this does raise the larger concern as to why anti-drone netting would be required at an American military base within the United States.
Recently, a Chinese national was arrested for flying a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. Yinpiao Zhou was arrested before boarding a flight back to China on December 9th.

Ever since the Ukrainian war proved their utility, small quadcopters (and now, fiber-optically controlled FPV drones) are a clear and present danger to American infrastructure, to include military bases. The recent efforts by government to downplay the events in New Jersey, even though the vast majority of events have probably been a case of mass formation psychosis, negates all of the genuine concerns that likely resulted in this incident in the first place.
Exactly what the situation is in New Jersey remains largely unknown, with no real solid evidence coming forward to confirm without a doubt what is happening. Imagery of the unknown aircraft remains poor and largely unverifiable. Eyewitness accounts remain extremely common, with tens of thousands of people reporting drone sightings all around the country. However, details surrounding these reports are again almost impossible to verify due to lack of detail. Many people, who have not looked up from their smartphone in years, are now looking to the sky and paying attention to their surroundings for the first time. As such, the overwhelming majority of all discourse surrounding the events in New Jersey is simply not an accurate perspective to be operating from. Likewise, since gaslighting on Twitter/X is very profitable, engagement farmers who are financially incentivized to manufacture engagement, have been posting photos of “drones” that are so clearly commercial aircraft that the airline and tail number can be identified. This is a gaslighting attempt to generate comments that essentially say “this is not a drone”, thus driving up engagement (and revenue) on a post. Similar efforts have been undertaken by those who have recently learned about the world of tracking aircraft, and that dozens of FAA-approved research balloons float around the United States daily.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2300Z December 19, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEAMSTERS LAUNCH LABOR STRIKE AGAINST AMAZON. FAA IMPLEMENTS 22 NEW NO-FLY ZONES FOR DRONES IN NEW JERSEY.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Preparations for shifting to wartime societies continue as before. A few days ago Poland mandated firearms training courses as part of the curriculum for schoolchildren, continuing the trend of militarization that intensified in early November. Election-related conflict continues in Georgia and Romania as before. Germany continues “Plan Deutschland”, a wartime-preparations scenario by which they are considering the logistical needs for a widespread military deployment throughout their nation. Statements urging individual citizens to prepare for war continue in the United Kingdom, Estonia, Poland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and in most other EU member states.
AC: Whether or not all of these actions are just posturing efforts remains debatable, and should also be considered in the context of Europe’s continual push toward energy solutions that are nowhere near capable of sustaining a wartime scenario. Nevertheless, preparations continue to progress in any case.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Overnight, the FAA established 22x new airspace closures around critical infrastructure sites due to the concerns presented by the recent drone situation. All 22 of these Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) are mostly centered around electrical substations, highlighting what the main concerns are with regards malign drone activity. AC: Of note, most of these TFRs are quite small, only prohibiting drone flights immediately adjacent to critical sites. One TFR has a larger radius of 2nm as it is centered over Picatinny Arsenal, a major research and development center for military UAS technology and one of the prime suspects for at least some of the drone sightings throughout the area.
Washington D.C. – Following the widespread outrage regarding the recent continuing resolution spending bill proposed in Congress, enough opposition has materialized to stall the bill for the time being, increasing the potential for another government shutdown. This afternoon, Donald Trump took to social media to announce that a deal had been reached to get the resolution across the finish line to avoid a shutdown.
USA: This morning the Teamsters began a labor strike which has targeted several Amazon warehouse facilities and fulfillment centers around the United States. New York, Illinois, and Georgia seem to be host to the primarily affected facilities, and picket lines have been organized at hundreds of other Amazon facilities around the US.
-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The Teamster labor strike appears to largely be centered around Amazon resisting the efforts by the Teamsters to subvert their employees at these facilities. Following the power shifts in various labor union organizations around the United States, organizations like the Teamsters have increasingly dedicated time and funding to targeting large corporations such as Amazon. A few incidents have occurred over the past few months whereby Teamster intelligence networks have attempted to subvert Amazon facilities. Considering that Jeff Bezos and the entire Amazon corporation at large is fairly well hated by the average person for many reasons, most people haven’t really cared about what the labor unions are doing, or the power-plays that have been occurring for months. This was most clearly illustrated by the ILA scandal from a few months ago, which highlighted the national security risks that labor unions can present at critical times. In this case, staging a labor strike during the Christmas holiday is likely intended to serve as a force-multiplier to increase the pressure on logistical networks during a time of congestion. While most of Amazon’s products are low-grade consumer goods that present no risk to national security if they were to be delayed in transit, Amazon also is a large provider of mail-order prenoscription medication. It’s not clear as to if a labor strike will cause disruptions to this logistical chain, but historical estimates suggest that upwards of 55% of Americans receive their prenoscription medications via mail-order sources. How much of this share is allocated to Amazon is unknown, but this does highlight that a labor conflict that takes place between a company most people hate, and a labor union most people hate, can still have the potential to impact logistics in ways that many people wouldn’t expect.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2000Z December 20, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FAA ENACTS MORE NO-FLY-ZONES AROUND ELECTRICAL SUBSTATIONS IN TRI-STATE AREA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Germany: This evening a vehicle-ramming attack took place at a Christmas Markt in Magdeburg. A vehicle rammed into a crowd of people partaking in celebrations, killing 11x and wounding upwards of 60x people. AC: As this incident is currently developing at the time of this report casualty figures will likely be revised as the situation develops.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – An agreement has not yet been reached in Congress regarding the budgetary continuing resolution, indicating that a government shutdown may begin at midnight.
Northeast: Throughout the region more flight restrictions have been emplaced, with 8x new airspace closures being announced throughout the tri-state area. Continuing the trend from New Jersey, the airspace closures are largely centered around electrical substations located on Long Island.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the closed-door meetings amongst high-ranking counterterrorism officials, it would seem that no one has pondered the reasoning as to why our critical infrastructure sites do not already have no-fly-zones around them. This is largely due to the historical analysis that the implementation of such can actually cause more harm than good, mostly because it highlights exactly which sites are most vulnerable to drone attacks.
Additionally, most of the no-fly-zones have been emplaced with parameters that are largely ineffective. For instance, most of the TFRs have been enacted covering the airspace from surface level to 400 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). This is not just a random number, this is the parameter set by the FAA for the use of recreational drones. Without special approval, recreational drones can’t be flown at an altitude of over 400 feet AGL in the United States. From a counterterrorism perspective, this is utter nonsense. No would-be terrorist seeking to use a drone to target critical infrastructure is going to play by the rules.
Once again, this small detail dismissed by most is a massive ‘tell’ that indicates how incapable federal agencies are. Remember, the FBI is coming at the issue from the angle they always do…that they can’t stop any terror attack that they don’t have a hand in planning and carrying out themselves. In short, if a would-be attacker doesn’t get groomed and assisted by the FBI at some point during their attack preparations, the FBI is powerless to stop (or even know about) the attack in the first place. For instance, the FBI is coming off of their recent bust, the November arrest of Skyler Philippi, who was allegedly planning to use a drone to attack an electrical substation in Nashville. This case involved the FBI choosing to provide materiel support to a well-known mentally unstable individual, to include providing attack plans, explosives, and assistance at the attack site on the day of the planned attack.

This is the mindset federal agents are operating from; that terrorism as the American people instinctively know it doesn’t really exist, and that any serious threat to the homeland simply can’t materialize without the FBI’s help. This is a very dangerous perspective to operate from, as it very obviously injects ego into counterterrorism doctrine. Putting up a no-fly zone around electrical substations strongly indicates this hubris; anyone with any minuscule counterterrorism experience can assert that these no-fly zones are going to do more harm than good because the lawful users of drones are not causing the problems. From the perspective of warfare doctrine, wargaming this decision for five minutes continues to demonstrate how bad of an idea this is. Much like how any obstacle on the battlefield must be observed at all times, the implementation of a no-fly-zone must be followed up with a layered defense. It does no good to close airspace if the means are not in place to enforce that closure, as you’ve just given away critical intelligence for nothing. From a defensive standpoint, airspace closures are a critical part of a defense-in-depth plan; by enacting a no-fly zone around a critical site, anyone who is violating that airspace closure would be demonstrating a Hostile Act as far as most Rules of Engagement go. This provides more information to the defender, and is a crucial initial step in the Targeting Cycle. In short, when properly implemented, airspace closures are a crucial tool in the counterterrorism toolbox…but when implemented poorly, airspace closures highlight more vulnerabilities than they prevent.
Obviously, any serious insurgent hellbent on causing destruction in the United States would not really benefit from the US government identifying vulnerable critical infrastructure; any dedicated insurgent is going to already know where the vulnerable sites are. Thus, the larger concern is simply related to saturation. Now that the authorities have so conveniently identified our most critical infrastructure with flashing neon signs, the total number of idiots who otherwise would not be a national security threat now have their attack planning work done for them. So in effect, the total number of people that could potentially cause problems is vastly increased by a visit from the good idea fairy. On the face of it, putting up no-fly zones seems to be a good idea to weed out the legitimate and legally operated recreational drones from the more malign threats. The problem with this is that, in a “yes man” culture, no one is willing to challenge the judgement call that the no-fly-zones are a good idea.
The closed-door meetings surrounding this issue are without question a circle of idiocracy probably centered around the perceived benefits of existing drone regulations; One federal agency (the FAA) assures another federal agency (the FBI) that all consumer drones are programmed to not fly within TFRs, and that the users phone won’t allow the drone to takeoff. The FBI, being satisfied with this, doesn’t know that their own efforts to help the Ukrainians use drones in war have indeed come back to haunt the United States. It isn’t 2015 any more; now the biggest threat doesn’t come from Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) drones that have been retrofitted to carry explosives, but from purpose-built FPV drones that operate completely differently. The U.S. government will 100% use the New Jersey situation as a way of pushing for taking more rights away from the People. However, the problem with using the field of counterterrorism as a political tool is that the whole field becomes rather poor at its main purpose, stopping terror attacks.

Quite literally no one in government can understand that they are making decisions in a vacuum, without all of the data. And somehow, federal counterterrorism agencies have the uncanny ability to take a good idea and warp it beyond any sort of effectiveness (because everyone is fighting for their resume bullet points). Without question, when the day comes that a drone is used by a malign actor for an attack, the dozen federal agencies all involved in this will shrug their shoulders with apathetic egoism, knowing that they “did their job the best they could”. This issue with this logic is that it’s 2024, and every American can clearly see that this is not the case, with random accounts on Twitter providing more counterterrorism benefit than the entire Department of Homeland Security. For the first time in history, a populace has the ability to assess terrorism risks with a greater accuracy than the federal agencies that have unlimited control over all data.
Perhaps most perplexingly is that these no-fly zones directly and clearly contradict the US government’s statements that the drone sightings throughout the region are not a threat. If the drones are not a threat, or merely a case of mistaken identity, why the no-fly zones specifically created for national defense purposes? The implementation of such no-fly zones largely indicates one of two possible theories: That drones are being operated on American soil by malign actors, or that the US government is trying to cover their own tracks regarding their own drone testing, and the no-fly zones are a misdirection attempt. At this point the former theory sounds more likely, as putting large bullseyes on our infrastructure for zero political gain is unlikely to be something that is undertaken. Whereas establishing no-fly-zones that are a feeble counterterrorism attempt that ends up doing more harm than good…that’s perfectly in line with the personalities involved at the higher levels of homeland counterterrorism efforts.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/9jnBjmH108E

//The Wire//2200Z December 23, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: U.S. NAVY SHOOTS DOWN OWN AIRCRAFT IN FRIENDLY-FIRE INCIDENT. SUBWAY ATTACKS IN NYC CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Over the weekend a friendly-fire incident resulted in one F/A-18 Super Hornet being shot down over the Red Sea. Both crew members ejected successfully, with one suffering injuries. The aircraft was downed by the USS Gettysburg (CG-64), which engaged the aircraft with an as yet unidentified weapon system.
-HomeFront-
New York: A woman was murdered on the subway as a result of an arson attack. The murder was carried out by a Guatemalan immigrant, who was arrested following the extremely graphic attack. As of this morning, the victim has not yet been identified.
In Queens, this morning two thieves were stabbed by an elderly man who they were attempting to rob. One of the thieves was stabbed in the chest, and died later at a local hospital. The other thief remains hospitalized with lacerations to his face. The elderly man was unhurt during the incident, and has not been prosecuted as the DA has stated he was acting in self-defense.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the shootdown incident in the Red Sea constitutes a cascading series of exceptionally grave mistakes, the investigation into the downing of this aircraft is very serious. Prior to this incident, the last time a U.S. Navy vessel shot down one of their own aircraft was June 17, 1968, involving an F-4 Phantom and the USS Long Beach. This is the only other known incident where a U.S. Navy ship shot down a military aircraft from their own strike group (though this other Vietnam-era incident took place during the era where Identification, Friend-or-Foe (IFF) systems were in their infancy). This incident has further caused concerns regarding the risks to commercial aviation due to the observation that if the U.S. Navy cannot identify one of their own aircraft despite having a plethora of identification means, the risks to commercial aviation in the region are very likely elevated.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//Christmas Eve, December 24, 2024//
//SPECIAL REPORT//
//BLUF: SANTA DEPARTS NORTH POLE FOR HIS ANNUAL TRIP AROUND THE WORLD.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Greenland: This afternoon US military forces stationed at Pituffik Space Base detected Santa’s sleigh as he departed the North Pole this evening. Due to Santa’s extreme speed, Canada picked Santa up on radar a few moments later, as he flew south over the Arctic Circle.
New Jersey: Santa has been given special clearance to fly through the no-fly-zones, to carry out his mission of delivering toys to all the good children around the world.
As a reminder, Santa cannot deliver presents to children who are still awake, so it would be a good idea to go to sleep a little early tonight, just in case. But before bedtime, those who wish to track Santa as he continues on his journey can do so at the website: www.noradsanta.org
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Regular reporting will resume after the holiday, on December 27th. May everyone around the world have a Merry Christmas, celebrating Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, goodwill toward men!
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2300Z December 27, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN KAZAKHSTAN AS A RESULT OF PROBABLE MISSILE STRIKE. MORE DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING USS GETTYSBURG FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Over the holiday, additional information has come to light regarding the recent shootdown of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 by the USS Gettysburg (CG-64). Follow on information from crewmembers indicates that the shootdown was not the only friendly fire incident that day. Another aircraft narrowly avoided being engaged and was forced to take actions to evade an incoming missile from the USS Gettysburg. The pilot in the second aircraft was able to successfully evade the missile shot at them, unlike the first. AC: So far, virtually nothing is confirmable via independent sources; all of the information pertaining to these two friendly-fire incidents is coming from word-of-mouth sources within the Strike Group itself.
Continuing the trend of escalating tensions in the region, Houthi targeting has increased once again over the past week following Israeli strikes in Yemen. Houthi forces have retaliated in kind, carrying out ballistic missile strikes on targets in Israel.
Northern Europe: Another undersea cable cutting incident allegedly occurred on Christmas Day. This time, an electrical power cable spanning the Baltic Sea between Estonia and Finland was disrupted under unclear circumstances. NATO has pledged to increase their military naval presence in the Baltic as a result of the suspected Russian and/or Chinese merchant vessels which are being investigated by NATO for being involved in anchor-dragging incidents.
Kazakhstan: Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Aktau on Wednesday. The circumstances leading up to the disaster are as follows:
The aircraft took off from Baku, and transited north along the western bank of the Caspian Sea to complete a routine flight to Grozny. Once in Russian airspace, the crew reported navigational issues likely due to Russian military jamming of GPS systems, as has been extremely common throughout the region for several years. While attempting to land in Grozny under extremely thick fog, and with the added complexities of navigational issues, the aircraft experienced a catastrophic event that involved some loss of control over the aircraft. Initial reports suggested that the aircraft experienced a bird strike, as this is what the pilots reported over the radio. However, it is possible that what was perceived as a bird strike, really was the result of a missile striking the aircraft over Grozny. AC: Russian missile defense forces in Grozny had reportedly engaged Ukrainian drones earlier that day, lending weight to this theory.
Following the catastrophic incident (either the bird strike or a surface-to-air missile strike) the pilots made the decision to abort landing in Grozny due to the emergency situation and thick fog, making the judgement call that landing a compromised aircraft in Grozny was not a viable option as they had already unsuccessfully tried to do so with an undamaged aircraft.
The details of what happened next remain more uncertain with regards to timing and the sequence of events. The pilots attempted to gain clearance to land in Dagestan, but was also unable to do so due to conflicting reports. Some claim the same weather problems experienced in Grozny were to blame, other claims have been made that Russia forbade the aircraft to land for some unexplained reason. Reports also differ as to when this request was made; some claim prior to the catastrophic incident, others claim afterward.

At some point the pilots conducted a radical change of course, heading from west to east over the Caspian Sea toward an unidentified airport that possibly had better weather conditions. During the transit over the Caspian Sea, an emergency was declared and the aircraft began squawking mode 7700 on its transponder, openly signaling an emergency due to the previously mentioned damage becoming worse. AC: It is not clear as to the exact timing of this emergency declaration.
Likewise, at some point during this crisis, surviving passengers reportedly heard an explosion to the rear of the aircraft, immediately followed by shrapnel entering the fuselage. It is unclear as to where the aircraft was located when this happened; some reports suggest this occurred shortly before the uncontrolled landing in Aktau, while other reports suggest it happened as the pilots were attempting to land in Grozny. AC: This is an important detail that remains unconfirmed; important for the causation that can be inferred due to geography. As is common with many survivor testimonies, the concept of elapsed time is often skewed due to various adrenal stress responses; what seemed like a few minutes to one person may have indeed been almost an hour in reality.
Eventually, the pilots were able to make a largely uncontrolled landing outside of Aktau at grid coordinate 39T WJ 01256 59052. Despite the pilots’ best efforts, 38 passengers were killed during the landing, including both pilots and one flight attendant. However, as of this report 29 people (roughly half of the aircraft’s complement) miraculously survived the incident.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Though very few official statements have been released regarding the circumstances leading up to the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, many indicators are present suggesting that this aircraft was shot down by a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM). Shrapnel holes were found peppered throughout the fuselage and inside the passenger cabin, along with footage from the ground indicating that the pilots had limited ability to operate the aircraft’s control surfaces.
Consequently, if the aircraft was indeed shot down (either deliberately or accidentally), the grand question remains…who did it? So far, the highly uncoordinated and very non-forensic data that has been presented on social media has strongly indicated that a missile struck the aircraft at some point in its journey. As one might expect due to geography, most fingers point to Russia. However, a shoulder-fired MANPAD is just as likely a culprit as a Russian SAM system is at this point, until more data becomes available. However, the ADS-B flight data transmitted by the aircraft strongly indicates that something struck the aircraft before it began transiting over the Caspian Sea.
Whatever the case, the efforts by the pilots to maintain some level of control over the aircraft are nothing short of remarkable. Considering the shrapnel damage that was observed on the debris (that did not come from crashing into the ground), it is a sheer miracle that the pilots were able to salvage the situation as best as they did. Flying roughly 300 miles after a bird strike takes exceptional skill, but flying a commercial airliner 300 miles (over water) after being struck by a Surface-to-Air missile is miraculous. If this aircraft was indeed struck by a SAM, this is a data point that will be analyzed in much greater depth by experts in the field, for many years.

In a larger sense, for those wondering why the concept of “international law” (or perhaps more accurately, international norms and mores) matter, this is why. Many people around the world have grown weary with the horror of war in Ukraine, or at bare-minimum have become desensitized to it. However, one might find that due to a war a thousand miles away, a commercial airliner that had nothing to do with the conflict gets shot down. Russian Air Defense Artillery (ADA) units are notorious for (and have a long history of) not monitoring the activities of commercial aircraft, or understanding the flexibility sometimes undertaken by commercial airlines, or aircraft in distress. An ADA unit commander is not going to have the knowledge of radio communications between a random airliner and an Air Traffic Control (ATC) tower in Grozny (even though he absolutely should be monitoring these communications). Likewise, Russia’s own signal jamming might have resulted in any radio/transponder messages not being intercepted by Russian defense forces in the region, or at least complicating such.
These are the first few links in the infamous chain of causation that results in disaster.
The Ukrainian War has resulted in extreme levels of danger for any commercial aircraft in the region that has to deviate from known flight paths (or at non-standard altitude) within range of ADA units which have recently engaged hostile aircraft. The final links in the chain are the context that Russian military forces were operating under, the use of large drones (and retrofitted civilian aircraft) by Ukraine to conduct strikes in the vicinity of civilian centers in southern Russia.
As one might expect, the Russia/Ukraine hysteria will attempt to spin this incident in one way or another, depending on which side the reader supports in the war. The bitter tragedy lies with the details that everyone has a hand in the pie…the only thing up for debate is how much. Russia is largely to blame for starting the kinetic phase of the war in the first place, and also probably to blame for shooting down this aircraft. Ukraine is also partly to blame for carrying out insurgent-style, long-range drone attacks on Russian civilian centers, just as Russia is to blame for jamming the continent and increasing the potential for their own errors to strike innocent victims. The United States is also to blame for urging to continuation of this war to the point that Russia (a superpower) does not feel secure on her borders, and encouraging terror attacks inside Russia to the point that a superpower becomes destabilized…a sharp distinction from destabilizing other nations over the years.
Rightly or wrongly, none of these details justify anything at all…this is merely an explanation of how we have arrived at the ugly part of war. Now, citizens around the world are finding out that this ugly side of war, is the nature of war itself. In the many conflicts that are now underway around the world, finger pointing largely does no good as by the time a tragedy strikes, there are many links in the chain of events that would have never arisen under a state of peace. The most palpable observation of the horrors of war is how atrocity is shared by all, to some degree. From President Putin himself, down to the lowest ranking Russian soldier with the ADS-B Exchange website loaded on his smartphone…at any point in between, the slightest change could have broken the chain of tragedy. Unfortunately, this chain is shared by the other side too. If the United States had forbade the use of American munitions on Russian targets (or helped Ukraine retrofit civilian planes to carry out long-range “drone” attacks), the paranoia among Russian ADA defenses in southern Russia might not have been intense enough to result in shooting down another commercial aircraft. Again, all of this is speculation, and playing a game of “what if” isn’t that helpful. However, sometimes this is all we have to lean on to prevent disaster from striking again.

These unfortunate (and to some, offensive) ideas must be considered in the context of the most nefarious and tragic possibility…that Russian ADA defenses did know that it was a commercial airliner and chose to target it anyway due to the odd behavior displayed while the pilots were trying to navigate the weather conditions. To be blunt, this is what happens when insurgent-style attacks become normalized in a conflict between superpowers.
Another theory pertains to the aircraft not being deliberately engaged, but rather that a missile launched at a different target missed, and acquired a lock on the airliner. What goes up, must come down, and this would not be the first time that a Surface-to-Air missile missed its intended target, and struck a different aircraft entirely.
All in all, this event largely reignites the need for diligence and discernment. And more importantly, for the realization that every action has a reply, and every decision has a consequence. Most of the time, we think of the term “consequence” with negative connotations, as in some sort of punishment for a certain behavior. However a more helpful understanding is to simply think of consequence as a form of result. Good or bad, positive or negative, there are always consequences (results) for every decision that is made. Most of the time, when the stakes are low in a normal, civilized society, making a less-than-perfect decision is of little consequence. When the stakes are high, however, a different result must be considered as a possibility. In this case, the pilots were probably not operating with a wartime mentality, which is understandable. After all, for the vast majority of people, it is a rather sobering existence to become aware of the level of thinking required to keep civilization moving forward with the knowledge that the kinetic conflicts underway around the world are very much in danger of becoming more interconnected on a global scale. The pilots making the choice to linger about over Grozny while sorting out weather problems is one of those decisions that, in peacetime is perfectly fine, but in wartime had a tragic outcome. It doesn’t make it right, moral, or just, but this is the way it is. Pilots should not have to consider if their actions in an emergency will be perceived as being a threat to a military force on the ground, but this is the way it is in some parts of the world at the present time. We now live in an era where innocent people can’t fall asleep on the subway, and pilots have to consider international politics as their plane is crashing.
As the new year arrives, this rather nuanced (and surely to be hotly debated) concept would be wise to explore, especially as events unfold that are perceived to be “unprovoked actions”, but in reality (from the other side of the wire) are a response to an action that wasn’t even given the slightest thought in the first place. Acting and operating with deliberation and intent is already crucial, but will become even more important as these traits are not exhibited at the higher echelons of governance around the world. Fingers can be pointed at specific incidents, and accusations can accurately be made even during the opening phases of a war. However, only by the end of a conflict do most people realize the futility of engaging in the war in the first place, as only the clarity of hindsight grants the ability to see how the entire conflict could have been avoided.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/57mvbk6HD9o

//The Wire//2300Z December 30, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MISHAPS CONTINUE IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION. WHITE HOUSE SENDS ANOTHER $2.5 BILLION AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE. EGG SHORTAGES LIKELY IN SEVERAL STATES AS NEW LAWS COME INTO EFFECT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Norway: KLM Flight 1204 from Oslo to Amsterdam suffered an undisclosed catastrophic failure during their flight, diverting to Sandfjord. Upon arrival the aircraft skidded off the runway, reportedly due to a hydraulic failure.
South Korea: Jeju Air Flight 2216 crashed at Muan Airport following a bird strike that forced the aircraft to make an emergency landing. During the landing, the aircraft experienced a runway excursion, skidding off the end of the runway at high speed before colliding with a large concrete barrier housing the localizer for the airport’s Instrument Landing System (ILS). It is this collision that is assessed to have resulted in only 2x survivors, with 179x fatalities reported so far from this accident.
AC: As this bird strike incident would have been completely survivable had the concrete barrier at the end of the runway not been a factor, the families of victims have expressed outrage at such poor airport design. Normally, there are no hard barriers this close to the end of airport runways for obvious reasons. Consequently, investigators will likely focus on whether or not the Runway Safety Area (RSA) was in compliance with Korean standards.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – The White House has announced plans to send Ukraine another $2,500,000,000 in military aid.
Southeast: The region is bracing for a significant polar vortex scheduled to descend on the area over the next few days. Significantly colder than normal temperatures are expected to impact areas that normally do not experience such cold weather, resulting in locals preparing for freezing conditions before the weather arrives. AC: Anytime significant weather strikes a region that is not used to it, complications occur. Several warm-weather states that don’t prioritize de-icing efforts for roads may experience significant travel and logistical problems. Similarly, residents in locations which normally do not have to be concerned with freezing water pipes may wish to re-assess their risks to freezing temperatures as this weather system develops.
USA: Shortages of eggs have been reported at many grocery store chains as a series of new state laws come into effect in several states banning all eggs that are not cage-free from being sold. Due to the new mandate, prices of eggs have already approached $7 a dozen in many areas, and outright shortages have been reported in other areas.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The decision to implement these new cage-free egg laws goes back several years and spans many states. As is common among state-level leadership that share the same political leanings, the Governors of several states made this a joint priority a few years ago. In short, what happens in California will spread to half-a-dozen other states in rapid succession, as has happened in this case. All of these new egg laws are modeled on California’s Proposition 12 which was passed in 2018.
In Michigan, the state where this decision is likely to affect the market the most, this law was passed in 2019, coming into effect on January 1, 2025. Utah had a similar arrangement a few years ago, with their law likewise coming into effect on January 1st. Some other states had similar timeframes, though the requirements of the laws in particular vary from state to state. Massachusetts, for instance, has a similar law already in effect but contains less-stringent verbiage regarding the specific housing conditions of poultry. Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington are the other states also have placed restrictions on non-cage-free egg production.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2300Z December 31, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEPID RELATIONS CONTINUE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND AZERBAIJAN FOLLOWING SHOOTDOWN INCIDENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: Solar weather is expected to peak overnight as a Geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for Dec 31 into Jan 1. AC: Over the next day, GPS and radio signals may be degraded if a substantial geomagnetic storm materializes.
Russia: President Vladimir Putin allegedly expressed condolences for Russia’s involvement in the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in a private call with Azerbaijan’s President.
-HomeFront-
USA: Facebook/META and Instagram have announced plans to introduce AI-generated “users” to their platforms, drawing the ire of the users still using these social media platforms. AC: While seemingly a minor development in the world of social media, it’s already hard enough to discern the truth on the internet, much less when the developers of platforms themselves push AI-generated content on their platforms.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the trannoscript of the phone call between Russia and Azerbaijan has not yet been released, only secondary sources of unknown veracity have commented on the contents of the call. Allegedly Putin apologized for the incident, but did not directly take responsibility for the shootdown. In any case, the leadership of both nations are treating this incident as a tragic accident for the moment, although tensions among Azeris are high following the incident. For instance, Azeri President Aliyev accused Putin of attempting to downplay the incident. Regarding the exact cause of the crisis, Russia has not directly and clearly admitted to shooting down the aircraft, however Putin has mentioned that Russian Air Defense Artillery (ADA) units were engaging Ukrainian drones at the time of the incident. This highly coincidental statement might be the best Azerbaijan can get at the moment in terms of an admission of guilt from Russia. Putin’s indirect apology is also very likely due to what are likely to be perceived as Azerbaijan’s unreasonable demands. President Aliyev has demanded three things: An apology from Russia (which they already have), An admission of guilt by Russia, and criminal trial of the Russian soldiers responsible. This latter point is absolutely not going to happen, and probably isn’t expected to either because Azerbaijan’s further demand is that of money…compensation for the accident in the form of a check made out to the Azeri government. Putin is not the man to engage in a shakedown operation with, so relations between Azerbaijan and Russia might be rather lukewarm for some time.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z January 1, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK OCCURS AT BOURBON STREET CELEBRATIONS IN NEW ORLEANS, MULTIPLE IEDS FOUND. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TRUMP TOWER IN LAS VEGAS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: A G4 geomagnetic storm is currently underway following two Earth-facing Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) observed a few days ago. Aurora (Northern Lights) will be observed at more southern latitudes than normal, and various radio communications may be degraded over the next few days.
-HomeFront-
New York: Yesterday evening, another shoving attack was carried out on the New York City subway system. A man approached a subway passenger from behind, and intentionally shoved him onto the tracks mere seconds before a train arrived. Surveillance footage of the attack strongly indicates the attack was deliberately timed to coincide with the arrival of the train. The victim, who was crushed by the train, reportedly remains in critical condition. The assailant has been identified as Kamel Hawkins, an individual known to police with an extensive criminal history. AC: Initially, the attacker was only charged with 2nd degree assault for this attack. However, due to public outrage, additional charges of attempted murder have been brought, due to the horrific and deliberate nature of the attack.
Louisiana: During New Year’s celebrations last night, an assailant conducted a vehicle ramming attack on a crowd of people on Bourbon Street. After ramming his vehicle into the crowd, the assailant exited the vehicle and began the second phase of his attack, engaging two police officers with a small arms. 2x police officers were wounded in this engagement, both of which are reportedly hospitalized and in stable condition. At some point during this skirmish, the assailant was neutralized. Multiple Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) were found in the vehicle after the incident. The FBI also stated that multiple IEDs were also located emplaced throughout the French Quarter, though none of these explosive devices successfully detonated during the attack. So far, 15x fatalities have been reported due to the attack, and over 30x wounded. This morning, the attacker was identified as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, an American citizen (and Army veteran) who lived in Texas. After the attack, a residential fire was reported on Mandeville Street, in an Airbnb residence that was allegedly linked in some way to the attacker.
AC: Also of note, it is not entirely certain that this individual acted alone; rumors have begun to mount suggesting that several other suspects are currently being investigated for their alleged involvement. As a result, it is possible that this incident has not yet reached a conclusion. After all, if a terrorist is going to take the time to plant multiple IEDs throughout an area, there could be more explosive devices that have not been discovered yet. This is most sharply demonstrated by the Governor of Louisiana declaring a state of emergency after the attack. This declaration (and the subsequent deployment of Military Police, per statements from Gov. Landry’s office) is unusual following allegedly-isolated attacks and likely would not happen if the threat of follow-on attacks wasn’t present. This afternoon, multiple media outlets claimed that local authorities have information regarding three males and one female planting the explosives around the city. Though this information remains unconfirmed at this time, citizens nationwide are strongly encouraged to remain vigilant and observant during this time of heightened risk.

Nevada: An incident was reported in the vicinity of Trump Tower in Las Vegas this morning when a vehicle (a Tesla Cybertruck) exploded at the front door of the hotel. The driver of the vehicle was killed in the explosion. AC: So far, it’s too soon to tell if this was an accident or a deliberate act. Several hours after the incident, surveillance footage emerged indicating that a substantial amount of fireworks were being transported in the vehicle. However, this detail alone does not indicate much with any certainty; what could have been an unfortunate accident could just as easily have been a political stunt, and/or a rather poorly-constructed Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). Due to the placement of the vehicle directly at the front door (and thus positioned for maximum effect on soft targets at a known choke-point) it would be wise to consider nefarious intent, just in case. Especially considering the currently heightened terrorism risk.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The attack in New Orleans meets the commonly accepted definition of a complex terror attack. The IED’s found at the scene were likely intended to serve as a secondary attack, detonating after the main attack was over, targeting first responders. This is a classic tactic used by insurgents around the world, and one of the main concerns present for vehicle ramming attacks. As many good Samaritans rush to the scene to help the wounded, they may be walking into a trap intentionally set for the purposes of maximizing casualties. In this case, the possible IEDs (which were allegedly rigged for remote detonation) did not detonate nor were they used in the attack.
Locally, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell stated that the incident was a terror attack. However, in their first press briefing, the FBI spokesperson directly stated that the event is not a terror attack, causing concerns among the public as to the trust and confidence placed in national counter-terrorism agencies. Many hours later, in a text-only statement posted online, the FBI completely reversed their initial assessment and are now investigating this event as a terror attack.
Even without knowing the specific motive, per the FBI “fear” itself can be a motive, and ramming a vehicle containing explosives into a crowd of people certainly has that effect. Consequently, since this incident was very obviously a terror attack, pretending to not know the basics of counterterrorism doctrine from the past 50 years is disingenuous at best. Per the FBI’s own definition, a terror attack is defined as: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.”
The semantics of this definition, while seemingly nit-picky, do matter. Even though the FBI rapidly reversed course and is now investigating this as an act of terrorism, this delay does matter.

This is largely due to the investigative process; declaring the incident to be a terror attack (or not declaring it to be so) changes the investigation process and the resources dedicated to it…in the critical moments when additional follow-on attacks may be imminent. Considering that this attack already meets the Department of Homeland Security’s definition of a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA), the FBI expressing hesitation in labeling the attack what it was has raised concerns. Namely, that if the FBI hesitates and struggles to define events that have already happened, this is not a good indicator of the FBI’s ability to prevent future attacks from happening. Right now, many Americans are concerned that when a high-profile attack is conducted by a malign actor that may result in some level of political incorrectness, concealing details of the attack from the public don’t help alleviate these concerns. While an FBI spokesperson was standing in front of a camera saying that it wasn’t an act of terror, multiple IEDs could have detonated around the city, as was intended by the terrorist(s). Thankfully in this case this did not happen, but the FBI directly claiming the attack was not terrorism, and in the same breath mentioning multiple IEDs being found, is very telling.
In the world of counter-terrorism, speed is key. So far, the FBI only acted with haste when it came to concealing the details of the attack that strongly indicate some level of (probably Islamic-affiliated) terrorism. Separately, the FBI dragging their feet during the initial hours of this investigation could have been deadly. This attack was already deliberate, complex, required prior planning, and probably more than just one person…this was not a random act of violence. In the world of counter-terrorism any time an element of deliberate planning is assessed to be a factor (even before the dust settles), resources should have sprung into action. In short, when one vehicle rams into a crowd, authorities should be considering the possibility that this is but the opening act of more attacks. In the heat of the moment, what looks to be only one vehicle attack may indeed be many more attacks in very short order. Though in this case this thankfully has not happened (yet), federal agencies expressing hesitation during this crucial time is concerning. This hesitation was especially dangerous considering some of the details specific to the attack. For one, any vehicle ramming attack on a crowd of people gathered for a holiday celebration (and thus a high-risk event) is suspect and is normally considered to be a terror attack in the early phases of the incident, just to be precautious. Similarly, the vehicle being driven by a man who appeared to be wearing a camouflage military uniform and tactical gear, and this man engaging police officers with small arms during the attack…this is generally assumed by everyone to not be just a random street crime.
As has been demonstrated time and time again, insurgents around the world know that the very first actions of the FBI during a major terror attack will be that of hesitation and a rapid effort to conceal the actions/motive of the terrorist. The FBI’s first instinct during a crisis being to coverup details is something that is very likely to be capitalized on by malign actors in the future.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//