//The Wire//Christmas Eve, December 24, 2024//
//SPECIAL REPORT//
//BLUF: SANTA DEPARTS NORTH POLE FOR HIS ANNUAL TRIP AROUND THE WORLD.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Greenland: This afternoon US military forces stationed at Pituffik Space Base detected Santa’s sleigh as he departed the North Pole this evening. Due to Santa’s extreme speed, Canada picked Santa up on radar a few moments later, as he flew south over the Arctic Circle.
New Jersey: Santa has been given special clearance to fly through the no-fly-zones, to carry out his mission of delivering toys to all the good children around the world.
As a reminder, Santa cannot deliver presents to children who are still awake, so it would be a good idea to go to sleep a little early tonight, just in case. But before bedtime, those who wish to track Santa as he continues on his journey can do so at the website: www.noradsanta.org
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Analyst Comments: Regular reporting will resume after the holiday, on December 27th. May everyone around the world have a Merry Christmas, celebrating Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, goodwill toward men!
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2300Z December 27, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: COMMERCIAL AIRLINER CRASHES IN KAZAKHSTAN AS A RESULT OF PROBABLE MISSILE STRIKE. MORE DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING USS GETTYSBURG FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Red Sea/HOA: Over the holiday, additional information has come to light regarding the recent shootdown of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 by the USS Gettysburg (CG-64). Follow on information from crewmembers indicates that the shootdown was not the only friendly fire incident that day. Another aircraft narrowly avoided being engaged and was forced to take actions to evade an incoming missile from the USS Gettysburg. The pilot in the second aircraft was able to successfully evade the missile shot at them, unlike the first. AC: So far, virtually nothing is confirmable via independent sources; all of the information pertaining to these two friendly-fire incidents is coming from word-of-mouth sources within the Strike Group itself.
Continuing the trend of escalating tensions in the region, Houthi targeting has increased once again over the past week following Israeli strikes in Yemen. Houthi forces have retaliated in kind, carrying out ballistic missile strikes on targets in Israel.
Northern Europe: Another undersea cable cutting incident allegedly occurred on Christmas Day. This time, an electrical power cable spanning the Baltic Sea between Estonia and Finland was disrupted under unclear circumstances. NATO has pledged to increase their military naval presence in the Baltic as a result of the suspected Russian and/or Chinese merchant vessels which are being investigated by NATO for being involved in anchor-dragging incidents.
Kazakhstan: Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 crashed in Aktau on Wednesday. The circumstances leading up to the disaster are as follows:
The aircraft took off from Baku, and transited north along the western bank of the Caspian Sea to complete a routine flight to Grozny. Once in Russian airspace, the crew reported navigational issues likely due to Russian military jamming of GPS systems, as has been extremely common throughout the region for several years. While attempting to land in Grozny under extremely thick fog, and with the added complexities of navigational issues, the aircraft experienced a catastrophic event that involved some loss of control over the aircraft. Initial reports suggested that the aircraft experienced a bird strike, as this is what the pilots reported over the radio. However, it is possible that what was perceived as a bird strike, really was the result of a missile striking the aircraft over Grozny. AC: Russian missile defense forces in Grozny had reportedly engaged Ukrainian drones earlier that day, lending weight to this theory.
Following the catastrophic incident (either the bird strike or a surface-to-air missile strike) the pilots made the decision to abort landing in Grozny due to the emergency situation and thick fog, making the judgement call that landing a compromised aircraft in Grozny was not a viable option as they had already unsuccessfully tried to do so with an undamaged aircraft.
The details of what happened next remain more uncertain with regards to timing and the sequence of events. The pilots attempted to gain clearance to land in Dagestan, but was also unable to do so due to conflicting reports. Some claim the same weather problems experienced in Grozny were to blame, other claims have been made that Russia forbade the aircraft to land for some unexplained reason. Reports also differ as to when this request was made; some claim prior to the catastrophic incident, others claim afterward.

At some point the pilots conducted a radical change of course, heading from west to east over the Caspian Sea toward an unidentified airport that possibly had better weather conditions. During the transit over the Caspian Sea, an emergency was declared and the aircraft began squawking mode 7700 on its transponder, openly signaling an emergency due to the previously mentioned damage becoming worse. AC: It is not clear as to the exact timing of this emergency declaration.
Likewise, at some point during this crisis, surviving passengers reportedly heard an explosion to the rear of the aircraft, immediately followed by shrapnel entering the fuselage. It is unclear as to where the aircraft was located when this happened; some reports suggest this occurred shortly before the uncontrolled landing in Aktau, while other reports suggest it happened as the pilots were attempting to land in Grozny. AC: This is an important detail that remains unconfirmed; important for the causation that can be inferred due to geography. As is common with many survivor testimonies, the concept of elapsed time is often skewed due to various adrenal stress responses; what seemed like a few minutes to one person may have indeed been almost an hour in reality.
Eventually, the pilots were able to make a largely uncontrolled landing outside of Aktau at grid coordinate 39T WJ 01256 59052. Despite the pilots’ best efforts, 38 passengers were killed during the landing, including both pilots and one flight attendant. However, as of this report 29 people (roughly half of the aircraft’s complement) miraculously survived the incident.
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Analyst Comments: Though very few official statements have been released regarding the circumstances leading up to the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, many indicators are present suggesting that this aircraft was shot down by a Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM). Shrapnel holes were found peppered throughout the fuselage and inside the passenger cabin, along with footage from the ground indicating that the pilots had limited ability to operate the aircraft’s control surfaces.
Consequently, if the aircraft was indeed shot down (either deliberately or accidentally), the grand question remains…who did it? So far, the highly uncoordinated and very non-forensic data that has been presented on social media has strongly indicated that a missile struck the aircraft at some point in its journey. As one might expect due to geography, most fingers point to Russia. However, a shoulder-fired MANPAD is just as likely a culprit as a Russian SAM system is at this point, until more data becomes available. However, the ADS-B flight data transmitted by the aircraft strongly indicates that something struck the aircraft before it began transiting over the Caspian Sea.
Whatever the case, the efforts by the pilots to maintain some level of control over the aircraft are nothing short of remarkable. Considering the shrapnel damage that was observed on the debris (that did not come from crashing into the ground), it is a sheer miracle that the pilots were able to salvage the situation as best as they did. Flying roughly 300 miles after a bird strike takes exceptional skill, but flying a commercial airliner 300 miles (over water) after being struck by a Surface-to-Air missile is miraculous. If this aircraft was indeed struck by a SAM, this is a data point that will be analyzed in much greater depth by experts in the field, for many years.

In a larger sense, for those wondering why the concept of “international law” (or perhaps more accurately, international norms and mores) matter, this is why. Many people around the world have grown weary with the horror of war in Ukraine, or at bare-minimum have become desensitized to it. However, one might find that due to a war a thousand miles away, a commercial airliner that had nothing to do with the conflict gets shot down. Russian Air Defense Artillery (ADA) units are notorious for (and have a long history of) not monitoring the activities of commercial aircraft, or understanding the flexibility sometimes undertaken by commercial airlines, or aircraft in distress. An ADA unit commander is not going to have the knowledge of radio communications between a random airliner and an Air Traffic Control (ATC) tower in Grozny (even though he absolutely should be monitoring these communications). Likewise, Russia’s own signal jamming might have resulted in any radio/transponder messages not being intercepted by Russian defense forces in the region, or at least complicating such.
These are the first few links in the infamous chain of causation that results in disaster.
The Ukrainian War has resulted in extreme levels of danger for any commercial aircraft in the region that has to deviate from known flight paths (or at non-standard altitude) within range of ADA units which have recently engaged hostile aircraft. The final links in the chain are the context that Russian military forces were operating under, the use of large drones (and retrofitted civilian aircraft) by Ukraine to conduct strikes in the vicinity of civilian centers in southern Russia.
As one might expect, the Russia/Ukraine hysteria will attempt to spin this incident in one way or another, depending on which side the reader supports in the war. The bitter tragedy lies with the details that everyone has a hand in the pie…the only thing up for debate is how much. Russia is largely to blame for starting the kinetic phase of the war in the first place, and also probably to blame for shooting down this aircraft. Ukraine is also partly to blame for carrying out insurgent-style, long-range drone attacks on Russian civilian centers, just as Russia is to blame for jamming the continent and increasing the potential for their own errors to strike innocent victims. The United States is also to blame for urging to continuation of this war to the point that Russia (a superpower) does not feel secure on her borders, and encouraging terror attacks inside Russia to the point that a superpower becomes destabilized…a sharp distinction from destabilizing other nations over the years.
Rightly or wrongly, none of these details justify anything at all…this is merely an explanation of how we have arrived at the ugly part of war. Now, citizens around the world are finding out that this ugly side of war, is the nature of war itself. In the many conflicts that are now underway around the world, finger pointing largely does no good as by the time a tragedy strikes, there are many links in the chain of events that would have never arisen under a state of peace. The most palpable observation of the horrors of war is how atrocity is shared by all, to some degree. From President Putin himself, down to the lowest ranking Russian soldier with the ADS-B Exchange website loaded on his smartphone…at any point in between, the slightest change could have broken the chain of tragedy. Unfortunately, this chain is shared by the other side too. If the United States had forbade the use of American munitions on Russian targets (or helped Ukraine retrofit civilian planes to carry out long-range “drone” attacks), the paranoia among Russian ADA defenses in southern Russia might not have been intense enough to result in shooting down another commercial aircraft. Again, all of this is speculation, and playing a game of “what if” isn’t that helpful. However, sometimes this is all we have to lean on to prevent disaster from striking again.

These unfortunate (and to some, offensive) ideas must be considered in the context of the most nefarious and tragic possibility…that Russian ADA defenses did know that it was a commercial airliner and chose to target it anyway due to the odd behavior displayed while the pilots were trying to navigate the weather conditions. To be blunt, this is what happens when insurgent-style attacks become normalized in a conflict between superpowers.
Another theory pertains to the aircraft not being deliberately engaged, but rather that a missile launched at a different target missed, and acquired a lock on the airliner. What goes up, must come down, and this would not be the first time that a Surface-to-Air missile missed its intended target, and struck a different aircraft entirely.
All in all, this event largely reignites the need for diligence and discernment. And more importantly, for the realization that every action has a reply, and every decision has a consequence. Most of the time, we think of the term “consequence” with negative connotations, as in some sort of punishment for a certain behavior. However a more helpful understanding is to simply think of consequence as a form of result. Good or bad, positive or negative, there are always consequences (results) for every decision that is made. Most of the time, when the stakes are low in a normal, civilized society, making a less-than-perfect decision is of little consequence. When the stakes are high, however, a different result must be considered as a possibility. In this case, the pilots were probably not operating with a wartime mentality, which is understandable. After all, for the vast majority of people, it is a rather sobering existence to become aware of the level of thinking required to keep civilization moving forward with the knowledge that the kinetic conflicts underway around the world are very much in danger of becoming more interconnected on a global scale. The pilots making the choice to linger about over Grozny while sorting out weather problems is one of those decisions that, in peacetime is perfectly fine, but in wartime had a tragic outcome. It doesn’t make it right, moral, or just, but this is the way it is. Pilots should not have to consider if their actions in an emergency will be perceived as being a threat to a military force on the ground, but this is the way it is in some parts of the world at the present time. We now live in an era where innocent people can’t fall asleep on the subway, and pilots have to consider international politics as their plane is crashing.
As the new year arrives, this rather nuanced (and surely to be hotly debated) concept would be wise to explore, especially as events unfold that are perceived to be “unprovoked actions”, but in reality (from the other side of the wire) are a response to an action that wasn’t even given the slightest thought in the first place. Acting and operating with deliberation and intent is already crucial, but will become even more important as these traits are not exhibited at the higher echelons of governance around the world. Fingers can be pointed at specific incidents, and accusations can accurately be made even during the opening phases of a war. However, only by the end of a conflict do most people realize the futility of engaging in the war in the first place, as only the clarity of hindsight grants the ability to see how the entire conflict could have been avoided.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/57mvbk6HD9o

//The Wire//2300Z December 30, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MISHAPS CONTINUE IN COMMERCIAL AVIATION. WHITE HOUSE SENDS ANOTHER $2.5 BILLION AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE. EGG SHORTAGES LIKELY IN SEVERAL STATES AS NEW LAWS COME INTO EFFECT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Norway: KLM Flight 1204 from Oslo to Amsterdam suffered an undisclosed catastrophic failure during their flight, diverting to Sandfjord. Upon arrival the aircraft skidded off the runway, reportedly due to a hydraulic failure.
South Korea: Jeju Air Flight 2216 crashed at Muan Airport following a bird strike that forced the aircraft to make an emergency landing. During the landing, the aircraft experienced a runway excursion, skidding off the end of the runway at high speed before colliding with a large concrete barrier housing the localizer for the airport’s Instrument Landing System (ILS). It is this collision that is assessed to have resulted in only 2x survivors, with 179x fatalities reported so far from this accident.
AC: As this bird strike incident would have been completely survivable had the concrete barrier at the end of the runway not been a factor, the families of victims have expressed outrage at such poor airport design. Normally, there are no hard barriers this close to the end of airport runways for obvious reasons. Consequently, investigators will likely focus on whether or not the Runway Safety Area (RSA) was in compliance with Korean standards.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – The White House has announced plans to send Ukraine another $2,500,000,000 in military aid.
Southeast: The region is bracing for a significant polar vortex scheduled to descend on the area over the next few days. Significantly colder than normal temperatures are expected to impact areas that normally do not experience such cold weather, resulting in locals preparing for freezing conditions before the weather arrives. AC: Anytime significant weather strikes a region that is not used to it, complications occur. Several warm-weather states that don’t prioritize de-icing efforts for roads may experience significant travel and logistical problems. Similarly, residents in locations which normally do not have to be concerned with freezing water pipes may wish to re-assess their risks to freezing temperatures as this weather system develops.
USA: Shortages of eggs have been reported at many grocery store chains as a series of new state laws come into effect in several states banning all eggs that are not cage-free from being sold. Due to the new mandate, prices of eggs have already approached $7 a dozen in many areas, and outright shortages have been reported in other areas.
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Analyst Comments: The decision to implement these new cage-free egg laws goes back several years and spans many states. As is common among state-level leadership that share the same political leanings, the Governors of several states made this a joint priority a few years ago. In short, what happens in California will spread to half-a-dozen other states in rapid succession, as has happened in this case. All of these new egg laws are modeled on California’s Proposition 12 which was passed in 2018.
In Michigan, the state where this decision is likely to affect the market the most, this law was passed in 2019, coming into effect on January 1, 2025. Utah had a similar arrangement a few years ago, with their law likewise coming into effect on January 1st. Some other states had similar timeframes, though the requirements of the laws in particular vary from state to state. Massachusetts, for instance, has a similar law already in effect but contains less-stringent verbiage regarding the specific housing conditions of poultry. Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington are the other states also have placed restrictions on non-cage-free egg production.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT/

//The Wire//2300Z December 31, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TEPID RELATIONS CONTINUE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND AZERBAIJAN FOLLOWING SHOOTDOWN INCIDENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: Solar weather is expected to peak overnight as a Geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for Dec 31 into Jan 1. AC: Over the next day, GPS and radio signals may be degraded if a substantial geomagnetic storm materializes.
Russia: President Vladimir Putin allegedly expressed condolences for Russia’s involvement in the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in a private call with Azerbaijan’s President.
-HomeFront-
USA: Facebook/META and Instagram have announced plans to introduce AI-generated “users” to their platforms, drawing the ire of the users still using these social media platforms. AC: While seemingly a minor development in the world of social media, it’s already hard enough to discern the truth on the internet, much less when the developers of platforms themselves push AI-generated content on their platforms.
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Analyst Comments: As the trannoscript of the phone call between Russia and Azerbaijan has not yet been released, only secondary sources of unknown veracity have commented on the contents of the call. Allegedly Putin apologized for the incident, but did not directly take responsibility for the shootdown. In any case, the leadership of both nations are treating this incident as a tragic accident for the moment, although tensions among Azeris are high following the incident. For instance, Azeri President Aliyev accused Putin of attempting to downplay the incident. Regarding the exact cause of the crisis, Russia has not directly and clearly admitted to shooting down the aircraft, however Putin has mentioned that Russian Air Defense Artillery (ADA) units were engaging Ukrainian drones at the time of the incident. This highly coincidental statement might be the best Azerbaijan can get at the moment in terms of an admission of guilt from Russia. Putin’s indirect apology is also very likely due to what are likely to be perceived as Azerbaijan’s unreasonable demands. President Aliyev has demanded three things: An apology from Russia (which they already have), An admission of guilt by Russia, and criminal trial of the Russian soldiers responsible. This latter point is absolutely not going to happen, and probably isn’t expected to either because Azerbaijan’s further demand is that of money…compensation for the accident in the form of a check made out to the Azeri government. Putin is not the man to engage in a shakedown operation with, so relations between Azerbaijan and Russia might be rather lukewarm for some time.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z January 1, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK OCCURS AT BOURBON STREET CELEBRATIONS IN NEW ORLEANS, MULTIPLE IEDS FOUND. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TRUMP TOWER IN LAS VEGAS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: A G4 geomagnetic storm is currently underway following two Earth-facing Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) observed a few days ago. Aurora (Northern Lights) will be observed at more southern latitudes than normal, and various radio communications may be degraded over the next few days.
-HomeFront-
New York: Yesterday evening, another shoving attack was carried out on the New York City subway system. A man approached a subway passenger from behind, and intentionally shoved him onto the tracks mere seconds before a train arrived. Surveillance footage of the attack strongly indicates the attack was deliberately timed to coincide with the arrival of the train. The victim, who was crushed by the train, reportedly remains in critical condition. The assailant has been identified as Kamel Hawkins, an individual known to police with an extensive criminal history. AC: Initially, the attacker was only charged with 2nd degree assault for this attack. However, due to public outrage, additional charges of attempted murder have been brought, due to the horrific and deliberate nature of the attack.
Louisiana: During New Year’s celebrations last night, an assailant conducted a vehicle ramming attack on a crowd of people on Bourbon Street. After ramming his vehicle into the crowd, the assailant exited the vehicle and began the second phase of his attack, engaging two police officers with a small arms. 2x police officers were wounded in this engagement, both of which are reportedly hospitalized and in stable condition. At some point during this skirmish, the assailant was neutralized. Multiple Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) were found in the vehicle after the incident. The FBI also stated that multiple IEDs were also located emplaced throughout the French Quarter, though none of these explosive devices successfully detonated during the attack. So far, 15x fatalities have been reported due to the attack, and over 30x wounded. This morning, the attacker was identified as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, an American citizen (and Army veteran) who lived in Texas. After the attack, a residential fire was reported on Mandeville Street, in an Airbnb residence that was allegedly linked in some way to the attacker.
AC: Also of note, it is not entirely certain that this individual acted alone; rumors have begun to mount suggesting that several other suspects are currently being investigated for their alleged involvement. As a result, it is possible that this incident has not yet reached a conclusion. After all, if a terrorist is going to take the time to plant multiple IEDs throughout an area, there could be more explosive devices that have not been discovered yet. This is most sharply demonstrated by the Governor of Louisiana declaring a state of emergency after the attack. This declaration (and the subsequent deployment of Military Police, per statements from Gov. Landry’s office) is unusual following allegedly-isolated attacks and likely would not happen if the threat of follow-on attacks wasn’t present. This afternoon, multiple media outlets claimed that local authorities have information regarding three males and one female planting the explosives around the city. Though this information remains unconfirmed at this time, citizens nationwide are strongly encouraged to remain vigilant and observant during this time of heightened risk.

Nevada: An incident was reported in the vicinity of Trump Tower in Las Vegas this morning when a vehicle (a Tesla Cybertruck) exploded at the front door of the hotel. The driver of the vehicle was killed in the explosion. AC: So far, it’s too soon to tell if this was an accident or a deliberate act. Several hours after the incident, surveillance footage emerged indicating that a substantial amount of fireworks were being transported in the vehicle. However, this detail alone does not indicate much with any certainty; what could have been an unfortunate accident could just as easily have been a political stunt, and/or a rather poorly-constructed Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). Due to the placement of the vehicle directly at the front door (and thus positioned for maximum effect on soft targets at a known choke-point) it would be wise to consider nefarious intent, just in case. Especially considering the currently heightened terrorism risk.
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Analyst Comments: The attack in New Orleans meets the commonly accepted definition of a complex terror attack. The IED’s found at the scene were likely intended to serve as a secondary attack, detonating after the main attack was over, targeting first responders. This is a classic tactic used by insurgents around the world, and one of the main concerns present for vehicle ramming attacks. As many good Samaritans rush to the scene to help the wounded, they may be walking into a trap intentionally set for the purposes of maximizing casualties. In this case, the possible IEDs (which were allegedly rigged for remote detonation) did not detonate nor were they used in the attack.
Locally, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell stated that the incident was a terror attack. However, in their first press briefing, the FBI spokesperson directly stated that the event is not a terror attack, causing concerns among the public as to the trust and confidence placed in national counter-terrorism agencies. Many hours later, in a text-only statement posted online, the FBI completely reversed their initial assessment and are now investigating this event as a terror attack.
Even without knowing the specific motive, per the FBI “fear” itself can be a motive, and ramming a vehicle containing explosives into a crowd of people certainly has that effect. Consequently, since this incident was very obviously a terror attack, pretending to not know the basics of counterterrorism doctrine from the past 50 years is disingenuous at best. Per the FBI’s own definition, a terror attack is defined as: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.”
The semantics of this definition, while seemingly nit-picky, do matter. Even though the FBI rapidly reversed course and is now investigating this as an act of terrorism, this delay does matter.

This is largely due to the investigative process; declaring the incident to be a terror attack (or not declaring it to be so) changes the investigation process and the resources dedicated to it…in the critical moments when additional follow-on attacks may be imminent. Considering that this attack already meets the Department of Homeland Security’s definition of a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA), the FBI expressing hesitation in labeling the attack what it was has raised concerns. Namely, that if the FBI hesitates and struggles to define events that have already happened, this is not a good indicator of the FBI’s ability to prevent future attacks from happening. Right now, many Americans are concerned that when a high-profile attack is conducted by a malign actor that may result in some level of political incorrectness, concealing details of the attack from the public don’t help alleviate these concerns. While an FBI spokesperson was standing in front of a camera saying that it wasn’t an act of terror, multiple IEDs could have detonated around the city, as was intended by the terrorist(s). Thankfully in this case this did not happen, but the FBI directly claiming the attack was not terrorism, and in the same breath mentioning multiple IEDs being found, is very telling.
In the world of counter-terrorism, speed is key. So far, the FBI only acted with haste when it came to concealing the details of the attack that strongly indicate some level of (probably Islamic-affiliated) terrorism. Separately, the FBI dragging their feet during the initial hours of this investigation could have been deadly. This attack was already deliberate, complex, required prior planning, and probably more than just one person…this was not a random act of violence. In the world of counter-terrorism any time an element of deliberate planning is assessed to be a factor (even before the dust settles), resources should have sprung into action. In short, when one vehicle rams into a crowd, authorities should be considering the possibility that this is but the opening act of more attacks. In the heat of the moment, what looks to be only one vehicle attack may indeed be many more attacks in very short order. Though in this case this thankfully has not happened (yet), federal agencies expressing hesitation during this crucial time is concerning. This hesitation was especially dangerous considering some of the details specific to the attack. For one, any vehicle ramming attack on a crowd of people gathered for a holiday celebration (and thus a high-risk event) is suspect and is normally considered to be a terror attack in the early phases of the incident, just to be precautious. Similarly, the vehicle being driven by a man who appeared to be wearing a camouflage military uniform and tactical gear, and this man engaging police officers with small arms during the attack…this is generally assumed by everyone to not be just a random street crime.
As has been demonstrated time and time again, insurgents around the world know that the very first actions of the FBI during a major terror attack will be that of hesitation and a rapid effort to conceal the actions/motive of the terrorist. The FBI’s first instinct during a crisis being to coverup details is something that is very likely to be capitalized on by malign actors in the future.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 2, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: QUESTIONABLE DETAILS REMAIN FOLLOWING YESTERDAY’S TERROR ATTACKS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: Russia’s GAZPROM has halted the flow of natural gas to Europe following the cessation of the long-standing trade deal involving the transportation of LNG through Ukraine to European customers. This development has been expected since at least 2014, when Europe was extremely reliant on Russian gas, yet in the predicament of the war developing in Crimea at the time. Since that time, most European customers of Russian LNG have either attempted to reduce or shift their demand for natural gas, or have shifted to other providers. AC: At the moment, this development doesn’t appear to really change much with regards to Europe’s energy crisis; this is more of the end of an era that has been a long time coming.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: Many details abound surrounding the New Year’s attack on Bourbon Street. Most pressingly, the FBI has taken the position that the attacker, Shamsud-din Jabbar, acted alone. Despite initial reports suggesting three men and one woman were observed planting explosives throughout the area, the FBI has corrected these reports and suggested that the persons observed were not involved with the placement of IEDs. AC: The knee-jerk reaction by the FBI to lie has reduced the trust and confidence the average citizen has in this assessment. For instance, during the FBI’s press conference yesterday (in which a spokesperson stated that the event wasn’t terrorism), the FBI had already recovered an ISIS flag at the scene. At the time of the press conference, the FBI knew this detail, confirming that the details conveyed to the American people at that moment were a lie. Trust is a concept that is easily lost, and very hard to regain. As such, if additional threats emerge following the now multiple terror attacks that have already occurred around the nation, it’s unlikely that anyone will trust what the FBI has to say for some time.
Nevada: Overnight, investigators have stated that the incident at Trump Tower in Las Vegas was a deliberate act of terrorism. The suspect, who authorities claim has been identified as Matthew Livelsberger, allegedly constructed a Vehicle-Borne IED, detonating the device at the hotel for (as of now) unknown reasons.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The details that have come to light regarding the Vegas bomber have largely been host to much suspicion. Allegedly, Livelsberger was killed in the attack. However, considering that Livelsberger was a Special Forces soldier, and an expert in sUAS systems and remotely-operated electronics, skepticism abounds as to whether or not the body recovered from the vehicle was actually him. DNA testing will be required to fully verify the driver’s remains. Initially, authorities appear to have relied on tattoos and documents found in the vehicle to identify the driver of the Cybertruck. However, it’s not clear as to how the driver’s remains can be burned beyond recognition, yet his identity documents (to include his passport) survived the fire. It’s also not clear as to why the driver would have sustained a gunshot wound to the head (as was stated by the Las Vegas Sheriff this afternoon), if the intent was for him to detonate a VBIED. This latter detail is completely at odds with the characteristics of most terror attacks; it is virtually unheard of for an attacker to take his own life before ensuring that their explosives are functional and/or the attack is complete. An attacker choosing to take their own life rather than carry out the attack is somewhat common, however the details of this case cause much doubt as to what really happened. All of these details, while possibly perfectly explainable, also could be indicators of inconsistent information that raise legitimate questions.

Considering his military experience, and the training courses that would have been required all throughout his career, including educational courses on how to make Homemade Explosives (HME), it is highly suspect that this individual would have created such a crude, Reddit-tier explosive device. Even the Bourbon Street terrorist was able to make a few crude pipe bombs, and that individual worked in IT. The Vegas bomber was a Green Beret, who’s entire career arc revolved around guerrilla warfare. Cans of gasoline and fireworks being a core part of his alleged explosive attack is completely outside the norm of what all service members in his career field are capable of. On the other hand, his technical specialties within his military career were not specifically to be an explosives expert. This detail, combined with the declining proficiencies within the military at large, mean that it is theoretically possible (however remote) that this individual could not identify the deficiencies with his own attack plan. The end result leaves no room for comfort in any case as far too many intelligence gaps remain to make sense of what truly happened.
Many factors had to line up for this attack to have been as ineffective as it was. The alleged bomber calmly parked at the front door, not even bothering to attempt to ram through the obviously unreinforced plate glass front windows, which lends credence to the driver maybe not being alive at the time the vehicle arrived (Tesla vehicles such as the Cybertruck being capable of autonomous driving). The cybertruck, heavily marketed and sold on its resistance to bullets (and shrapnel) is an interesting choice of vehicle used in the attack, that was somehow used in the most ineffective way possible. All in all, while the specifics of the attack itself vary, the atmospherics of this incident bear striking resemblance to the 2020 Nashville VBIED attack, in which the alleged attacker in that case also took radical steps to ensure that virtually every single norm of a routine terror attack is not adhered to, conducting the most ineffective attack possible. In this more recent attack in Las Vegas, this overall similarity can’t be dismissed. Even if Livelsberger was seeking to only take his own life in a flamboyant way, or to complete the act as part of a political statement, the very ineffective and extraordinarily amateurish VBIED construction is an oddity. Even someone operating with an altered mental state would likely have conducted this attack (or political statement) very differently.
While much debate abounds regarding the multiple terror attacks that ushered in the New Year for the United States, one detail remains pertinent for those discussing the very questionable details surrounding these attacks. A false flag operation, conducted solely for the purposes of furthering a political goal, can still be fatal. Whatever really happened, whether it be a wild and elaborate conspiracy, or a purely isolated “event”, the universal truth no matter the cause is that people were killed yesterday. In the heat of the moment, it’s too late to have the philosophical debate of whether or not an attack is a false-flag operation. However, after the event is over, discernment, the crown of all virtues, is a worthy pursuit.
When an event occurs, it would be wise for one to consider the emotion or action that event is intended to result in. In short, when something happens think about what it's trying to get you to do. An ISIS flag being found at the scene of a terror attack (and yet still somehow sporting creases from being folded in the packaging it was sold in), is probably intended to drive an emotional response. A highly-experienced Green Beret trained in how to make bombs in a thousand different ways, somehow choosing the most ineffective explosive method that results in no casualties and very little damage, is probably also intended to result in some form of emotional response.

Right now, the risk of terrorism is high. Who is really and truly behind it, is up for debate and probably varies widely. But on the ground, when the bullets are flying, the philosophy of the event is largely not considered during the fray. When the chips are down, helping each other and stopping the evil acts are the only priority. It is only after the day is done, and the casualties are counted, that the speed and violence of action to prevent bad people from doing bad things should shift into a mentality of discernment.
On the one hand, the United States has never been more vulnerable to terror attacks conducted by thousands of different groups and malign actors. On the other hand, the United States is also incredibly at risk of a false-flag terror attack dragging our nation into a war under false pretenses. It is only in the search for discernment that we will have the ability to prevent, mitigate, and respond to crises that affect our civilization, while also having the wisdom of restraint.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 3, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING NEW YEAR’S ATTACKS CONTINUE TO RAISE SUSPICION.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
USA: Overnight the Trusted Traveler Program was suspended at many military bases nationwide in the wake of the New Year’s terror attacks. AC: This program serves as the larger umbrella of expedited security check processes, including TSA Pre-Check and the automated access systems used to expedite the entry of logistics/cargo to military bases around the country. The cessation of this program (which is probably temporary) strongly indicates that the risk of further domestic incidents occurring remains high. It is unclear as to if this move will impact TSA Pre-Check, or if this is just a change that pertains to military base access.
Nevada: This afternoon, the public became aware of a manifesto sent by the Vegas bomber, which contained exceptionally serious claims. After the now-viral manifesto became public, the FBI stated that they believed the email was authentic and from the bomber himself. AC: As one might expect, the claims made in the manifesto will take some time to verify. However, in the meantime, the communications from the Vegas bomber do alleviate some more immediately pressing concerns. Namely that the individual almost certainly acted alone, and that follow-on attacks pertaining to this specific incident are not expected at this time.
Louisiana: Questionable details continue to abound following the investigation into the Bourbon Street attack on New Year’s. At the Texas residence of the alleged attacker, a journalist was able to enter what was reportedly the home of the attacker, to find a scene that only raises more questions. AC: As this story has gone viral, more details will likely come about at some point. However, this situation is exceptionally suspicious, to the point that it is hardly believable. A journalist being able to gain access to an active crime scene (and thus contaminating it with the DNA of an entire film crew) is hardly believable in the first place. Even more unbelievable is the FBI releasing an active crime scene 24 hours after a major terror attack. This is completely unheard of throughout the field of law enforcement. Beyond that, most of the evidence crucial to even the most basic investigation was left behind. Religious texts (a open Koran displaying a passage about martyrdom), tools, and possibly even a laptop, all were left behind after the FBI searched the residence.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As with all terror attacks, there are details that often times do not make sense. Considering how the flow of information has changed around the world over the past few years, details that would have not been noticed for many months (if at all) are now able to be scrutinized in great depth on social media. While this can result in a hypersensitivity to perceived irregularities, in some cases, this rapid access to (mostly) unfiltered information has altered the way the average person takes in information following a major terror attack. In the case of the Bourbon Street attack, so many sketchy details have emerged that the truth is hard to discern, and the more we learn, the more suspicious the details become. Likewise, the recent developments regarding the Vegas bombing are even more suspicious and worthy of closer examination. Neither event appears to be the boilerplate terror attack that has been expected for some time, and much more investigation will be required to come close to the truth of what really happened.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/Z6iG96E-S2w

//The Wire//2300Z January 6, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CANADIAN PM TRUDEAU RESIGNS PENDING PARTY SELECTING NEW PRIME MINISTER.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Canada: This morning PM Justin Trudeau announced his resignation following many years of both general dissent regarding his totalitarian policies, as well as a declining confidence in his leadership. His resignation is pending the Liberal Party leadership choosing another candidate for the office of Prime Minister.

-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - This afternoon, Donald Trump's electoral victory was certified in Congress, largely without much fanfare or political demonstration. Limited protests have taken place throughout the National Mall over the past few weeks (in opposition to Trump), however today's electoral certification passed largely without incident.

Idaho: The individual arrested last week for allegedly planting an explosive device on a train in Payette County skipped his arraignment hearing on Friday. Brent Sharrai had been arrested after he allegedly attempted to detonate an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) that he had affixed to a train halted in a siding on New Year's Day. AC: This attack appears to be more of a mental health incident rather than a deliberate terror attack, based on statements made by the individual's family which indicate the alleged attacker is not in full possession of his mental faculties.

Mid-Atlantic U.S. - Over the weekend, a substantial winter weather system descended on the region, causing logistical problems due to icy conditions. Several states have declared emergencies due to the winter storm including: West Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland, Arkansas, Missouri, and Virginia.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Following the news of PM Trudeau resigning, President Trump again took to social media to reiterate his intent to strengthen the United States' relationship with Canada to the point of possibly making Canada "the 51st State". These comments, which originally began as a joke, are beginning to approach some level of seriousness. Though the prospect of Canada becoming a U.S. State (or more accurately, a collection of U.S. States) is laughable at face value, Trump himself has repeated this idea many times now, so much that many people are beginning to wonder if he is actually being serious, much as with his previous statements indicating his desire to obtain Greenland.

Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNDERSEA CABLE CUT IN TAIWAN. EARTHQUAKE STRIKES NEPAL AND TIBET. SOUTH KOREAN POLITICS CONTINUES TO REMAIN TUMULTUOUS. TRUMP CONTINUES POLICY FORMATION REGARDING U.S. TERRITORIAL ASPIRATIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
 -International Events-
 Korean Peninsula: Following Sunday's routine missile launch in North Korea, tensions remain high in the context of South Korean politics. Though North Korea's missile test was semi-regular (albeit with North Korea claiming as usual to have implemented some new feature, in this case a new type of warhead), the launch has added to the internal strife that continues in South Korea.

In South Korea, the recent impeachment scandal continues to develop. President Yoon was impeached on December 14th, being replaced by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. However, on December 26th, Han was impeached as well, placing Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok in charge. Now, the situation largely remains in the courts as varying factions within government continue their power-plays.

Nepal: Yesterday evening a significant earthquake occurred in the Himalayas, with an epicenter located near the Tibetan town of Xizang near the Nepali border. Early estimates placed the magnitude of the earthquake at 7.1, at a depth of 10km. AC: This region, while occasionally host to very significant earthquakes, is also at exceptional risk of catastrophe from such. Following this quake, the casualty figures were initially reported as 9x fatalities, which rapidly rose to over 95x this morning.

Taiwan: This evening Taiwanese Defense officials and the Chunghwa Telecom company confirmed that at least one undersea cable serving the island nation had been cut over the weekend. The cable in question is part of the Trans-Pacific Express Cable System, a large network of cables connecting many Southeast Asian countries (including China herself) with North America. So far, the chief culprit is a Hong-Kong affiliated cargo ship, which was observed to be at anchor over the affected cable a few days ago.

-HomeFront-
California: This afternoon a wildfire emerged near the neighborhood of Pacific Palisades, rapidly expanding from the point of origin to around 200 acres in size in less than an hour due to strong winds. The Palisades fire rapidly expanded to over 700+ acres later on in the day. This rapid explosion of fire activity caused sudden risks to residential neighborhoods, with mass evacuations being mandated throughout most of Pacific Palisades and parts of western Los Angeles. AC: Due to the rapid arrival of this wildfire to densely populated residential areas, many people attempted to flee by vehicle. Many people subsequently ended up abandoning their vehicles in the middle of the freeway, attempting to flee on foot. As such, mass traffic gridlock has been reported throughout the area, with many firefighting units needing to use heavy machinery to move abandoned vehicles off of the roadway to make room for emergency responders.

Washington D.C. - Incoming President Trump has continued to share policy decisions, from renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, to mandating that votes are counted before 10pm on election day. Trump has also pledged to investigate the FBI's involvement in the 2021 J6 incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Trump has continued to assert his intentions with regards to gaining control of both Greenland and the Panama Canal. As of right now, this appears to be a genuine line of effort diplomatically. Of note, Donald Trump Jr. is currently in Greenland, reportedly filming content for an upcoming podcast. As of right now, Trump Jr. is not scheduled to meet with government officials in Greenland, and the visit appears to be more personal in nature, as opposed to an official diplomatic visit. These developments ordinarily would not carry much weight, as every incoming administration makes plans similar to these aspirations (though usually not to this degree). However, considering the diplomatic impacts of these efforts might impact the American people somewhat (particularly Trump's aspirations for war in the Middle East), the policy decisions that are being lined up would be worthy of being aware of.

Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z January 8, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PALISADES FIRE DEVASTATES LOS ANGELES SUBURBS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-HomeFront-
Virginia: Richmond residents remain under a boil water advisory following a catastrophic failure due to winter storms at a local water treatment facility two days ago. Most residents have reported no water supply at all, which has complicated winter storm recovery efforts.

California: The Palisades Fire expanded overnight to almost 12,000 acres in size, with zero percent containment. As of this report, almost all terrain along the coast between Santa Monica and Malibu is on fire. Additionally, three other fires have emerged: The Hurst and Woodley Fires burning in those areas respectively, and the Eaton Fire currently burning in the Eaton Canyon area.

AC: These four main wildfires continue to cause devastation as a deterioration of social order in western and northern Los Angeles continues. Limited looting has been reported throughout the residential areas currently burning, and firefighters are reporting difficulties fighting the fire due to the loss of water in some areas. This is largely due to a depletion of firefighting water reservoirs. The already-complex situation has gone from bad to worse throughout the night, as the high winds that have caused the rapid explosion of fire activity also grounded most aerial firefighting assets overnight. This morning, weather conditions calmed enough to allow aerial firefighting efforts to resume.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Considering that some of the most dangerous and complicated firefighting efforts usually arise at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), both styles of firefighting being strained to their limits during the best of times has complicated this situation.
Without question, the firefighters on the ground actually working the Palisades Fire are doing the best they can, and as usual are doing better than would ordinarily be expected of anyone. However, this fire is already a textbook example of rather unfortunate realities. Namely, how politics can directly influence life-saving operations. Normally, the public services are somewhat insulated from political decisions, as in a time of emergency, first responders have a lot of leeway to push through cultural or political problems. Unfortunately, sometimes the dedication of those on the ground is not enough to overcome the bad situation they were given.
As unfortunate as it is to even mention while a catastrophic disaster is ongoing, the cultural problems created by Los Angeles have contributed to the fire. For instance, Los Angeles is infamous for banning most wildfire prevention efforts (such as prescribed burns), under the guise of various climate policies. Many locales have planted eucalyptus trees for aesthetic purposes, not considering that eucalyptus trees are extremely flammable. Also, some species of eucalyptus have escaped their deliberate cultivation to become invasive in many areas, increasing the fire risk.
This seemingly minor detail has become a major problem, and brought state-level politics into play during this crisis...many insurance companies have reduced (or removed entirely) wildfire clauses in homeowner's insurance policies due to the wildfire risk being high as a result of political leadership restricting proper fire abatement practices. In short, the state government bans things like prescribed burns, and the fire risk goes up to the point that insurance companies drop customers. This practice has become so severe, that a state regulation was implemented 9 days ago, requiring insurance companies to cover fire-related incidents, as part of a larger wildfire-related insurance reform initiative.

Other contributing factors, while unfortunate to mention, are causing real-world problems as well. Scrutiny has been placed on the Los Angeles Fire Chief, who has been heavily involved in several scandals since taking control of the Department in 2022. Most of these scandals have involved a focus on cultural priorities, rather than firefighting excellence.

Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//