Part 6
Don’t get me wrong here. I’m sure that contingencies have been in place since the beginning of the war, for example, through the Donetsk and Kherson regions and by ferries (which are scarce). However, these routes are vulnerable since they are going through a war zone. You can’t transport civilians by these routes due to the danger of attack.
What is my point? Simple: If this route breaks it would put an enormous strain on military logistics to keep Crimea supplied.
In other words, Routes like the new railway route by land would need to handle both military logistics and civilian logistics simultaneously. Impossible? No, of course not. But there is a nice (rather not?) English word that I learned during a project in Birmingham, England, to describe the situation: Pain in the ass.
As everyone argues, it surely will not change the outcome of the war. But it is, in fact, the only means for the West to cause real and palpable pain to Russian logistics. There are no other means to achieve a similar effect.
@Slavyangrad
Don’t get me wrong here. I’m sure that contingencies have been in place since the beginning of the war, for example, through the Donetsk and Kherson regions and by ferries (which are scarce). However, these routes are vulnerable since they are going through a war zone. You can’t transport civilians by these routes due to the danger of attack.
What is my point? Simple: If this route breaks it would put an enormous strain on military logistics to keep Crimea supplied.
In other words, Routes like the new railway route by land would need to handle both military logistics and civilian logistics simultaneously. Impossible? No, of course not. But there is a nice (rather not?) English word that I learned during a project in Birmingham, England, to describe the situation: Pain in the ass.
As everyone argues, it surely will not change the outcome of the war. But it is, in fact, the only means for the West to cause real and palpable pain to Russian logistics. There are no other means to achieve a similar effect.
@Slavyangrad
👍105💯8🤡6🙏2❤1🤮1💩1
Part 7
Can it be destroyed?
During this war, we have learned a lot about the destructive capabilities of missiles, particularly regarding the destruction of infrastructure and the capabilities of air defenses. Not only in Ukraine but in the Middle East as well. To be fair, the theoretical capabilities of both Russian and Western air defense assets did not match the actual results seen on the battlefield. And that makes sense. In ideal environments, you always achieve better results than on the battlefield especially if your opponents are working together to find and exploit your weaknesses.
So, yes, if the West wants it, then hits on the Kerch Bridge will be accomplished.
Can it be destroyed? No, it cannot. The weapons available to Ukraine can’t destroy the pillars. If multiple ATACMS missiles hit one pillar at the same time, they could. But this scenario is almost impossible, given the air defense efforts around the bridge and the limited accuracy of the missiles.
It is almost certain that, in the case of a mass attack, one or more of the road spans and/or railway tracks would be damaged or destroyed. This could cause an interruption of several weeks or months, depending on how many spans and/or tracks were destroyed.
What is meant by the West when it says, “Destroy the bridge.” Make it entirely sink? That would be very difficult even without air defense, and you would need to plant tons of explosives on many pillars to make the structure itself collapse. With these missiles—impossible.
So, when the West talks about destroying the Kerch Bridge, it essentially means disrupting logistics for a certain period.
Will it be destroyed?
There is a finite probability that logistics over the Kerch Bridge will be interrupted for a period of time. Is it certain to happen? I don’t know. However, it would not change the outcome or the direction of the war. It would only be, as explained before, a “Pain in the ass”. 😊
What are the implications?
Why is southern logistics so important for Russia? Why are these ATACMS missiles coming now and not earlier? The Southern front is calm. Is the southern military supply route important at all?
For now, it is less important than other areas of the war zone. The fact that the West is escalating efforts to destroy it now tells me one thing: Intelligence is in place that Ukrainian front lines and defenses on the east side of the Dnepr are going to collapse within the next few months, and Ukraine might be forced to withdraw across the Dnepr.
At this point, southern logistics might become important again, depending on the ability of the Ukrainians to resist across the Dnepr in Zaporozhye and Kherson at the same time when Russia is rolling up the front lines in the north.
Honestly, I don’t know. But, seeing emphasis put on the southern logistics route by the West, I’d say this is directly connected to a potential advance on Odessa.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t expect at ANY time that Russia will be approaching Odessa fighting. The Ukrainian Army will be gone BEFORE Russia reaches Odessa. Except for one possible event: If some chickens (Westerners) appear in Odessa. This might have catastrophic consequences, but I already wrote about that.
@Slavyangrad
Can it be destroyed?
During this war, we have learned a lot about the destructive capabilities of missiles, particularly regarding the destruction of infrastructure and the capabilities of air defenses. Not only in Ukraine but in the Middle East as well. To be fair, the theoretical capabilities of both Russian and Western air defense assets did not match the actual results seen on the battlefield. And that makes sense. In ideal environments, you always achieve better results than on the battlefield especially if your opponents are working together to find and exploit your weaknesses.
So, yes, if the West wants it, then hits on the Kerch Bridge will be accomplished.
Can it be destroyed? No, it cannot. The weapons available to Ukraine can’t destroy the pillars. If multiple ATACMS missiles hit one pillar at the same time, they could. But this scenario is almost impossible, given the air defense efforts around the bridge and the limited accuracy of the missiles.
It is almost certain that, in the case of a mass attack, one or more of the road spans and/or railway tracks would be damaged or destroyed. This could cause an interruption of several weeks or months, depending on how many spans and/or tracks were destroyed.
What is meant by the West when it says, “Destroy the bridge.” Make it entirely sink? That would be very difficult even without air defense, and you would need to plant tons of explosives on many pillars to make the structure itself collapse. With these missiles—impossible.
So, when the West talks about destroying the Kerch Bridge, it essentially means disrupting logistics for a certain period.
Will it be destroyed?
There is a finite probability that logistics over the Kerch Bridge will be interrupted for a period of time. Is it certain to happen? I don’t know. However, it would not change the outcome or the direction of the war. It would only be, as explained before, a “Pain in the ass”. 😊
What are the implications?
Why is southern logistics so important for Russia? Why are these ATACMS missiles coming now and not earlier? The Southern front is calm. Is the southern military supply route important at all?
For now, it is less important than other areas of the war zone. The fact that the West is escalating efforts to destroy it now tells me one thing: Intelligence is in place that Ukrainian front lines and defenses on the east side of the Dnepr are going to collapse within the next few months, and Ukraine might be forced to withdraw across the Dnepr.
At this point, southern logistics might become important again, depending on the ability of the Ukrainians to resist across the Dnepr in Zaporozhye and Kherson at the same time when Russia is rolling up the front lines in the north.
Honestly, I don’t know. But, seeing emphasis put on the southern logistics route by the West, I’d say this is directly connected to a potential advance on Odessa.
Don’t get me wrong. I don’t expect at ANY time that Russia will be approaching Odessa fighting. The Ukrainian Army will be gone BEFORE Russia reaches Odessa. Except for one possible event: If some chickens (Westerners) appear in Odessa. This might have catastrophic consequences, but I already wrote about that.
@Slavyangrad
👍118❤8👏6💩6🤡2👎1🤮1
Part 8
F16s
There is also talk about the imminent appearance of F16s in Ukraine. Since the Soviet planes that were available have already been supplied and almost all have been shot down, there has been a need to bolster the fleet with new aircraft. The F16 makes a lot of sense because it is available in large numbers and it can carry the most important missiles. Trained pilots are also plentiful.
It is not about survivability in a dogfight. It is simply to keep a platform in the air that canbytes periodically strike targets behind Russia’s lines to cause some pain. Not to change anything but to cause some pain by attacking those targets that are not well-defended.
It also boosts Ukrainian morale by maintaining the perception that they still have an active Air Force and are hitting Russian targets.
I think the question is not whether they will operate from Ukrainian soil or from NATO soil. Or whether NATO pilots will fly them or Ukrainians. It simply doesn’t matter as long these planes are operating in Ukraine and don’t attack the Black Sea Fleet or old Russian territory. The vectors of approach are also relevant. Will they approach directly from Romania, flying over the Black Sea? I don’t think this would be tolerated.
And what about the pilots?
There is always the discussion about what planes Ukrainian pilots can fly and whether they can learn to fly NATO planes since they are used to flying only Soviet designs. Okay? Which Ukrainian pilots? Almost all of them turned already into ghosts of Kiev.
There is credible information that the Ukrainians sent a few guys with no motivation and education to the West to learn to fly F16s. The West is not even confident whether these guys will ever be capable of flying an F16. And if so, only after another year.
Who will fly these planes then, IF they appear? Of course: NATO mercenaries! Also, there is an almost unlimited supply of these planes. I think the babbling about the Dutch F16s, etc., is only a distraction. Yes, maybe they will be delivered, or maybe not. But there are more than enough available to make them vanish without account.
So, yes. They will possibly appear and continue what the Soviet planes did before. Maybe, slightly more effectively since they will be Western pilots with Western planes and Western missiles. So, maybe one or another missile will get through and destroy XYZ. And then, after using it for practice to calibrate Russian air defense algorithms, they will become targets for the turkey shoot again.
There is another aspect. Russia could soon start to advance deeply in the Dnepr direction and beyond. These troops will become more vulnerable to air-to-surface missiles since they will be mainly protected by short-range air means, which will not be calibrated to the new threat at first. Note: No one will use S-400 missiles to shoot down air-launched missiles against troops… Yes, that is a little sad but it is reality. Still, the missile carrier (the plane) definitely could receive a welcome gift from an S-400 battery.
@Slavyangrad
F16s
There is also talk about the imminent appearance of F16s in Ukraine. Since the Soviet planes that were available have already been supplied and almost all have been shot down, there has been a need to bolster the fleet with new aircraft. The F16 makes a lot of sense because it is available in large numbers and it can carry the most important missiles. Trained pilots are also plentiful.
It is not about survivability in a dogfight. It is simply to keep a platform in the air that canbytes periodically strike targets behind Russia’s lines to cause some pain. Not to change anything but to cause some pain by attacking those targets that are not well-defended.
It also boosts Ukrainian morale by maintaining the perception that they still have an active Air Force and are hitting Russian targets.
I think the question is not whether they will operate from Ukrainian soil or from NATO soil. Or whether NATO pilots will fly them or Ukrainians. It simply doesn’t matter as long these planes are operating in Ukraine and don’t attack the Black Sea Fleet or old Russian territory. The vectors of approach are also relevant. Will they approach directly from Romania, flying over the Black Sea? I don’t think this would be tolerated.
And what about the pilots?
There is always the discussion about what planes Ukrainian pilots can fly and whether they can learn to fly NATO planes since they are used to flying only Soviet designs. Okay? Which Ukrainian pilots? Almost all of them turned already into ghosts of Kiev.
There is credible information that the Ukrainians sent a few guys with no motivation and education to the West to learn to fly F16s. The West is not even confident whether these guys will ever be capable of flying an F16. And if so, only after another year.
Who will fly these planes then, IF they appear? Of course: NATO mercenaries! Also, there is an almost unlimited supply of these planes. I think the babbling about the Dutch F16s, etc., is only a distraction. Yes, maybe they will be delivered, or maybe not. But there are more than enough available to make them vanish without account.
So, yes. They will possibly appear and continue what the Soviet planes did before. Maybe, slightly more effectively since they will be Western pilots with Western planes and Western missiles. So, maybe one or another missile will get through and destroy XYZ. And then, after using it for practice to calibrate Russian air defense algorithms, they will become targets for the turkey shoot again.
There is another aspect. Russia could soon start to advance deeply in the Dnepr direction and beyond. These troops will become more vulnerable to air-to-surface missiles since they will be mainly protected by short-range air means, which will not be calibrated to the new threat at first. Note: No one will use S-400 missiles to shoot down air-launched missiles against troops… Yes, that is a little sad but it is reality. Still, the missile carrier (the plane) definitely could receive a welcome gift from an S-400 battery.
@Slavyangrad
👍104❤9👏6🙉6💩3🤔2👎1😁1🤡1
Part 9
Dnepr Bridges
Since the beginning, there has always been the question of why the Dnepr bridges are still standing. I answered that question very early on. You can read it from the beginning of BMA. It was always in Russia’s favor to fight the Ukrainian army on the East Side of the Dnepr instead of on the West Side. Why?
Friendly population
Short Supply Lines
Bordering with (old) Russia
Establishes Supply Lines
Strategic and Operational long-range air defense
Less need for Logistics
Equipment
The absolute opposite applies to the Ukrainians.
Recently, rumors have circulated “explaining” why Russia hasn’t destroyed the bridges:
Asset for negotiations
I don’t think so.
Red lines by the West
I don’t think so.
No means to destroy it
It is a challenge to destroy the major bridges over the Dnepr, especially from a distance. If one hits only the spans, they can certainly be restored repeatedly, for military purposes. We saw that with the Antonovskyi bridge in Kherson.
It was penetrated daily like Swiss cheese, and after a day or two, it was operational again for Russian military transport.
So, to destroy a bridge in a way that you can’t restore it quickly, the pillars need to be destroyed, and therefore, you need a missile/rocket with a lot of explosive energy or with a lot of kinetic energy to penetrate the pillars.
Of course, this does not apply to every kind of bridge architecture, but a lot of the Dnepr Bridges were constructed in the Soviet way with military and civil dual-purpose considerations.
So, yes – it is a challenge to destroy the Dnepr bridges. But it is possible. Especially since we can assume that the production of Kinzhals has been ramped up. I think they would be the best way to penetrate the Bridge Pillars effectively.
Still, these are scarce resources, and Russia will use them only on these Bridges after a strategic decision by the top leadership.
Waiting for the right moment to destroy them
I would argue that it would make sense to preserve these Bridges for after the war, since this will be Russia. And for Russian Army logistics for operations on the West side of the Dnepr IF needed. All of this will then be Russia, and these bridges will need to be restored, which is resource-intensive.
Nevertheless, I think that these bridges will be destroyed by the Ukrainians themselves anyway when they withdraw to the West side of the Dnepr, so this consideration doesn’t make sense at all.
Hence, there is still the possibility that Russia will delay the destruction until most of the Ukrainian army troops and equipment are on the east side. In other words, when the number of reinforcements is dwindling. Then Russia can isolate the whole grouping of Ukrainian forces on the east side from safety on the west side without the possibility of reinforcement or withdrawal.
This might occur within the next few weeks or months.
Will it happen? I don’t know; I’m still a little skeptical. We will see.
However, destroying the Dnieper bridges could be just one escalation step of many by the Russians. Some are tactical and will be done in response to escalation by Ukraine (the West). However, it is not very wise to escalate against Russia from a Ukrainian perspective.
Since the West controls the playbook for Ukraine, their decisions are not to be measured by whether they are in Ukraine’s interest but whether they are in the West’s interest. And, again, everything that damages Russia or Ukraine (will be Russia again) is good. So, the West will continue the escalation.
@Slavyangrad
Dnepr Bridges
Since the beginning, there has always been the question of why the Dnepr bridges are still standing. I answered that question very early on. You can read it from the beginning of BMA. It was always in Russia’s favor to fight the Ukrainian army on the East Side of the Dnepr instead of on the West Side. Why?
Friendly population
Short Supply Lines
Bordering with (old) Russia
Establishes Supply Lines
Strategic and Operational long-range air defense
Less need for Logistics
Equipment
The absolute opposite applies to the Ukrainians.
Recently, rumors have circulated “explaining” why Russia hasn’t destroyed the bridges:
Asset for negotiations
I don’t think so.
Red lines by the West
I don’t think so.
No means to destroy it
It is a challenge to destroy the major bridges over the Dnepr, especially from a distance. If one hits only the spans, they can certainly be restored repeatedly, for military purposes. We saw that with the Antonovskyi bridge in Kherson.
It was penetrated daily like Swiss cheese, and after a day or two, it was operational again for Russian military transport.
So, to destroy a bridge in a way that you can’t restore it quickly, the pillars need to be destroyed, and therefore, you need a missile/rocket with a lot of explosive energy or with a lot of kinetic energy to penetrate the pillars.
Of course, this does not apply to every kind of bridge architecture, but a lot of the Dnepr Bridges were constructed in the Soviet way with military and civil dual-purpose considerations.
So, yes – it is a challenge to destroy the Dnepr bridges. But it is possible. Especially since we can assume that the production of Kinzhals has been ramped up. I think they would be the best way to penetrate the Bridge Pillars effectively.
Still, these are scarce resources, and Russia will use them only on these Bridges after a strategic decision by the top leadership.
Waiting for the right moment to destroy them
I would argue that it would make sense to preserve these Bridges for after the war, since this will be Russia. And for Russian Army logistics for operations on the West side of the Dnepr IF needed. All of this will then be Russia, and these bridges will need to be restored, which is resource-intensive.
Nevertheless, I think that these bridges will be destroyed by the Ukrainians themselves anyway when they withdraw to the West side of the Dnepr, so this consideration doesn’t make sense at all.
Hence, there is still the possibility that Russia will delay the destruction until most of the Ukrainian army troops and equipment are on the east side. In other words, when the number of reinforcements is dwindling. Then Russia can isolate the whole grouping of Ukrainian forces on the east side from safety on the west side without the possibility of reinforcement or withdrawal.
This might occur within the next few weeks or months.
Will it happen? I don’t know; I’m still a little skeptical. We will see.
However, destroying the Dnieper bridges could be just one escalation step of many by the Russians. Some are tactical and will be done in response to escalation by Ukraine (the West). However, it is not very wise to escalate against Russia from a Ukrainian perspective.
Since the West controls the playbook for Ukraine, their decisions are not to be measured by whether they are in Ukraine’s interest but whether they are in the West’s interest. And, again, everything that damages Russia or Ukraine (will be Russia again) is good. So, the West will continue the escalation.
@Slavyangrad
👍131❤11🤷♂5🤔4👎3💩3🥱2🤡1
Part 10.
Chasov Yar and Ocheretino
Russia has been targeting and slowly grinding down the best-defended Ukrainian frontline cities from the start of the SMO, instead of bypassing them through less defendable territories. This was the sole reason for forcing the Ukrainians to commit their best troops in such “meatgrinders” to attract them in the fastest possible way. The main stronghold for the Ukrainians in the Donbass region is currently Chasov Yar. If it falls, Russia has access to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which would be the last stand for Ukraine in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine is forced to commit everything possible to hold Chasov Yar, which is favorable to Russia. The remaining Ukrainian forces can be destroyed in one place. Russia plans its logistics around such meatgrinders to enable the best possible means of destroying everything inside such meatgrinder.
What does that mean?
Russian Air Defense and Electronic Warfare means are in place to protect the forward units from everything that flies on the frontlines. We can assume that Ukraine is concentrating some elite forces for battle in these places. So, everything should be done to protect Russia’s forward units against these possible threats.
Russia is concentrating its own air force assets (FABs?) and drone forces at such meatgrinders.
Russia is concentrating its artillery forces at such places.
Russia is also concentrating its reconnaissance means in such places.
In other words, Everything that is needed to protect its own forward troops and to inflict maximum damage on the enemy troops within the meat grinder to make it as effective as possible. Effectiveness is, of course, measured by the number of degraded enemy forces per period of time.
Now, is Chasov Yar a meatgrinder?
I’d like to discuss this a little deeper.
First, let’s take a look at a map:
Source:
https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/
with own illustrations
If Ukraine is fully committed to holding Chasov Yar by all means, then the current Russian approach is insufficient to take the town. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Russia is doing this or that wrong. I’m not qualified to say that. I’m only saying it won’t be sufficient to take the town by going right through the front door especially because the garrison can be supplied, for the time being, by multiple routes freely. It would be too costly to Russia.
I personally think that this is not even the Russian intention. I think Russia is going to take a foothold within Chasov Yar. And then develop the flanks to create larger wedges from the north and the south, which would enable Russia to create step-by-step another large meatgrinder with the potential of thousands or tens of thousands of Ukrainian casualties, before attempting to take the town.
I drew my thoughts about how the flanks would need to be developed to create another meatgrinder for the purpose of destroying the Ukrainian Army.
Provided that there is intelligence in place, that Ukraine is lacking the strength the manpower to hold Chasov Yar at all, the plan could be to take the town directly without creating a meat grinder. Both are possible, but I’m rather inclined to support the scenario of creating another meat grinder. Especially after reports appeared that foreign legion troops could be deployed in Chasov Yar, it would be a great place from a Russian perspective to bury them there without moving in.
Is it necessary to take Chasov Yar by force at all?
Maybe not. This leads me to the next topic.
@Slavyangrad
Chasov Yar and Ocheretino
Russia has been targeting and slowly grinding down the best-defended Ukrainian frontline cities from the start of the SMO, instead of bypassing them through less defendable territories. This was the sole reason for forcing the Ukrainians to commit their best troops in such “meatgrinders” to attract them in the fastest possible way. The main stronghold for the Ukrainians in the Donbass region is currently Chasov Yar. If it falls, Russia has access to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which would be the last stand for Ukraine in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine is forced to commit everything possible to hold Chasov Yar, which is favorable to Russia. The remaining Ukrainian forces can be destroyed in one place. Russia plans its logistics around such meatgrinders to enable the best possible means of destroying everything inside such meatgrinder.
What does that mean?
Russian Air Defense and Electronic Warfare means are in place to protect the forward units from everything that flies on the frontlines. We can assume that Ukraine is concentrating some elite forces for battle in these places. So, everything should be done to protect Russia’s forward units against these possible threats.
Russia is concentrating its own air force assets (FABs?) and drone forces at such meatgrinders.
Russia is concentrating its artillery forces at such places.
Russia is also concentrating its reconnaissance means in such places.
In other words, Everything that is needed to protect its own forward troops and to inflict maximum damage on the enemy troops within the meat grinder to make it as effective as possible. Effectiveness is, of course, measured by the number of degraded enemy forces per period of time.
Now, is Chasov Yar a meatgrinder?
I’d like to discuss this a little deeper.
First, let’s take a look at a map:
Source:
https://ukraine.liveuamap.com/
with own illustrations
If Ukraine is fully committed to holding Chasov Yar by all means, then the current Russian approach is insufficient to take the town. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Russia is doing this or that wrong. I’m not qualified to say that. I’m only saying it won’t be sufficient to take the town by going right through the front door especially because the garrison can be supplied, for the time being, by multiple routes freely. It would be too costly to Russia.
I personally think that this is not even the Russian intention. I think Russia is going to take a foothold within Chasov Yar. And then develop the flanks to create larger wedges from the north and the south, which would enable Russia to create step-by-step another large meatgrinder with the potential of thousands or tens of thousands of Ukrainian casualties, before attempting to take the town.
I drew my thoughts about how the flanks would need to be developed to create another meatgrinder for the purpose of destroying the Ukrainian Army.
Provided that there is intelligence in place, that Ukraine is lacking the strength the manpower to hold Chasov Yar at all, the plan could be to take the town directly without creating a meat grinder. Both are possible, but I’m rather inclined to support the scenario of creating another meat grinder. Especially after reports appeared that foreign legion troops could be deployed in Chasov Yar, it would be a great place from a Russian perspective to bury them there without moving in.
Is it necessary to take Chasov Yar by force at all?
Maybe not. This leads me to the next topic.
@Slavyangrad
👍135❤16👏11🤡5🤮2💩2💯2🥱1
Part 11
Ocheretino.
In 2022, during the Russian operation to free the Lugansk People’s Republic, Russia managed to break through the Ukrainian lines and take a town on an important height, Popasnaya. And from this town, which was now behind Ukrainian lines, the Russian troops advanced in all directions, which resembled a blooming flower if viewed on a map.
The same applies now to Ocheretino. It also is on an important height and behind the Ukrainian lines. And this town fell. After it fell, Russia again started to advance in all directions, starting from Ocheretino behind the straight Ukrainian lines.
What is the implication of this? First, the length of the front line is now stretched by an order of magnitude. And there are another few such flowers in the making everywhere on the front lines from Kharkov down to Zaporozhye. Every such flower will stretch the Ukrainian front lines and, by doing this, the demand for personnel to hold back the Russians.
And what resource is Ukraine lacking the most? Personnel. People.
The Russian forces can advance now in less-defended territory behind the Ukrainian main lines, complicating Ukraine’s defense far more.
All of what I just wrote now translates into one certain threat: Collapse.
I have no idea how many troops Ukraine has left, how many they can forcefully mobilize, or how many foreign legion mercenaries will be sent to the place to keep the lines from collapsing. But the question is not IF but WHEN. When will these facts lead to a total collapse of the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnepr?
Again:
There is another meatgrinder in the making with the potential of eating tens of thousands of Ukrainians IF created.
The frontlines are being penetrated everywhere, and wedges, which translate into “flowers,” are being created everywhere. Which demands even more human resources to stabilize the front lines.
All of this raises the question of whether Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk, Slaviansk, etc., will need to be taken by force at all or will the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnepr collapse earlier with a subsequent withdrawal to the west side of the Dnepr?
I have no answer for this but it makes sense to think these questions through.
I’m still curious whether we will see another vector of pressure in Kharkov and Sumy, from the Russian border. We’ll see.
@Slavyangrad
Ocheretino.
In 2022, during the Russian operation to free the Lugansk People’s Republic, Russia managed to break through the Ukrainian lines and take a town on an important height, Popasnaya. And from this town, which was now behind Ukrainian lines, the Russian troops advanced in all directions, which resembled a blooming flower if viewed on a map.
The same applies now to Ocheretino. It also is on an important height and behind the Ukrainian lines. And this town fell. After it fell, Russia again started to advance in all directions, starting from Ocheretino behind the straight Ukrainian lines.
What is the implication of this? First, the length of the front line is now stretched by an order of magnitude. And there are another few such flowers in the making everywhere on the front lines from Kharkov down to Zaporozhye. Every such flower will stretch the Ukrainian front lines and, by doing this, the demand for personnel to hold back the Russians.
And what resource is Ukraine lacking the most? Personnel. People.
The Russian forces can advance now in less-defended territory behind the Ukrainian main lines, complicating Ukraine’s defense far more.
All of what I just wrote now translates into one certain threat: Collapse.
I have no idea how many troops Ukraine has left, how many they can forcefully mobilize, or how many foreign legion mercenaries will be sent to the place to keep the lines from collapsing. But the question is not IF but WHEN. When will these facts lead to a total collapse of the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnepr?
Again:
There is another meatgrinder in the making with the potential of eating tens of thousands of Ukrainians IF created.
The frontlines are being penetrated everywhere, and wedges, which translate into “flowers,” are being created everywhere. Which demands even more human resources to stabilize the front lines.
All of this raises the question of whether Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk, Slaviansk, etc., will need to be taken by force at all or will the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnepr collapse earlier with a subsequent withdrawal to the west side of the Dnepr?
I have no answer for this but it makes sense to think these questions through.
I’m still curious whether we will see another vector of pressure in Kharkov and Sumy, from the Russian border. We’ll see.
@Slavyangrad
👍124👏21❤10🙏6🤡4🤷♂2💩2🥱2🤮1💯1
Part 12
Foreign Troops
There are ever more discussions and even indications that foreign troops might actually be deployed in Ukraine. Not just somewhere in Ukraine but directly in Chasov Yar. Is it true or not? Maybe. It doesn’t matter. We can say that roughly 1,000 additional troops (Ukrainian or Foreign) translate into 0.8-day prolonging of the war.
An example: 15,000 French troops (which I still doubt, except the foreign legion, which are mercenaries) translates into the prolonging of the war for = 15,000 x 0.8 = 12 days. The French would be gone (dead/wounded) in 12 days.
Okay, as long they do not set foot in Odessa. Then the Eifel Tower could be turned upside down suddenly…literally. All information is in place.
Before someone asks, 12 days prolongation of the war means 12 days prolongation of the war and not that when the French troops enter Ukraine, all of them would be dead after 12 days. There are a million questions to determine when and where they would fall.
Would they be held in the rear to free up 15,000 Ukrainians? Then they would live a little longer and die step by step by constant drone and missile terror?
Would they be deployed to Chasov Yar? (Nonsense, it is not even logistically possible). Then, they would die within 12 days. Between this black-and-white scenario are many shades of grey.
So, I do not think so much about this Macronian nonsense. After all, I also believe that this whole operation was set up by Western Oligarchs as an operation to nudge the Germans ever more to “do something.” Which translates into “committing suicide.” But we will see.
Nuclear Weapons Drills
Odessa MUST NOT BE TOUCHED by any foreign troops. To highlight this fact in backchannels more information is trickling out. There are indications that Russia might start training with non-strategic (tactical?) nuclear weapons.
Most likely, we are talking about command-level training and/or actual live-fire training with dummy weapons. I don’t know. But it is the clearest sign that everybody who touches Russian cities currently occupied by Ukraine, which are being marked as strategic (ODESSA!!!!!!), will die. Not only the soldiers themselves but the leaders who gave the orders as well. I maintain my assessment from my previous article that I don’t expect such a scenario (10%).
Still, we could see a lot of Western mercenaries dying on the frontlines while trying to stabilize the collapsing front lines. But this doesn’t matter. Remember: 1,000 people = 0.8 days.
@Slavyangrad
Foreign Troops
There are ever more discussions and even indications that foreign troops might actually be deployed in Ukraine. Not just somewhere in Ukraine but directly in Chasov Yar. Is it true or not? Maybe. It doesn’t matter. We can say that roughly 1,000 additional troops (Ukrainian or Foreign) translate into 0.8-day prolonging of the war.
An example: 15,000 French troops (which I still doubt, except the foreign legion, which are mercenaries) translates into the prolonging of the war for = 15,000 x 0.8 = 12 days. The French would be gone (dead/wounded) in 12 days.
Okay, as long they do not set foot in Odessa. Then the Eifel Tower could be turned upside down suddenly…literally. All information is in place.
Before someone asks, 12 days prolongation of the war means 12 days prolongation of the war and not that when the French troops enter Ukraine, all of them would be dead after 12 days. There are a million questions to determine when and where they would fall.
Would they be held in the rear to free up 15,000 Ukrainians? Then they would live a little longer and die step by step by constant drone and missile terror?
Would they be deployed to Chasov Yar? (Nonsense, it is not even logistically possible). Then, they would die within 12 days. Between this black-and-white scenario are many shades of grey.
So, I do not think so much about this Macronian nonsense. After all, I also believe that this whole operation was set up by Western Oligarchs as an operation to nudge the Germans ever more to “do something.” Which translates into “committing suicide.” But we will see.
Nuclear Weapons Drills
Odessa MUST NOT BE TOUCHED by any foreign troops. To highlight this fact in backchannels more information is trickling out. There are indications that Russia might start training with non-strategic (tactical?) nuclear weapons.
Most likely, we are talking about command-level training and/or actual live-fire training with dummy weapons. I don’t know. But it is the clearest sign that everybody who touches Russian cities currently occupied by Ukraine, which are being marked as strategic (ODESSA!!!!!!), will die. Not only the soldiers themselves but the leaders who gave the orders as well. I maintain my assessment from my previous article that I don’t expect such a scenario (10%).
Still, we could see a lot of Western mercenaries dying on the frontlines while trying to stabilize the collapsing front lines. But this doesn’t matter. Remember: 1,000 people = 0.8 days.
@Slavyangrad
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💥 The enemy attacked the Kursk Region at night: houses in Tetkino went up in flames
After dropping explosive devices from copters and attack by kamikaze drones, three houses caught fire. None of the residents were injured. The fires were extinguished by fire brigades and a volunteer fire brigade, according to Governor Starovoit.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei👋
After dropping explosive devices from copters and attack by kamikaze drones, three houses caught fire. None of the residents were injured. The fires were extinguished by fire brigades and a volunteer fire brigade, according to Governor Starovoit.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei
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Boris Johnson’s former top adviser Dominic Cummings launched a sweary attack on Western support for Ukraine Thursday.
In an interview with the i newspaper, Cummings — who led Britain’s Vote Leave Brexit campaign and spectacularly fell out with Johnson in 2020 — declared that the West “should have never got into the whole stupid situation” and claimed sanctions against Russia have had a greater impact on European politics than in Moscow.
The former adviser was scathing of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and comparisons with World War II. “This is not a replay of 1940 with the pumpkin Zelenskyy as the Churchillian underdog,” he said.
Cummings has long been critical of support for Ukraine, a stance that puts him sharply at odds with his old boss Johnson, a vocal supporter of Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s war effort.
He told the paper the West had failed to send Russian President Vladimir Putin a worthwhile signal which would deter him from invading another country.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei👋
In an interview with the i newspaper, Cummings — who led Britain’s Vote Leave Brexit campaign and spectacularly fell out with Johnson in 2020 — declared that the West “should have never got into the whole stupid situation” and claimed sanctions against Russia have had a greater impact on European politics than in Moscow.
The former adviser was scathing of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and comparisons with World War II. “This is not a replay of 1940 with the pumpkin Zelenskyy as the Churchillian underdog,” he said.
“This whole Ukrainian corrupt mafia state has basically conned us all and we’re all going to get fucked as a consequence,” he argued. “We are getting fucked now right?”
Cummings has long been critical of support for Ukraine, a stance that puts him sharply at odds with his old boss Johnson, a vocal supporter of Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s war effort.
He told the paper the West had failed to send Russian President Vladimir Putin a worthwhile signal which would deter him from invading another country.
“What lesson have we taught him? The lesson we’ve taught Putin is that we’re a bunch of total fucking jokers,” Cummings asserted, saying the war had “broadcast it to the entire world what a bunch of clowns we are.”
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei
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Meet the MW channel !
They will let you know about things that youwon't find on TV:
🔹footage from combat zones;
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🔹stories from war survivors;
🔹insider and expert analysis
Military Wave is a channel with up-to-date war footage. Subscribe and be on the military wavelength.
They will let you know about things that you
🔹footage from combat zones;
🔹information on the latest weaponry;
🔹stories from war survivors;
🔹insider and expert analysis
Military Wave is a channel with up-to-date war footage. Subscribe and be on the military wavelength.
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🇷🇺🇺🇦 Hard fighting is going on: Zelensky confirmed the start of the Russian offensive on Kharkov Region
- The drug addict also said that the Ukrainian command "knew about the impending offensive".
- The emergency evacuation of the population of Volchansk and nearby settlements the overdue president did not explain.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei👋
- The drug addict also said that the Ukrainian command "knew about the impending offensive".
- The emergency evacuation of the population of Volchansk and nearby settlements the overdue president did not explain.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei
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The creation of a buffer zone along the Russian border has begun. Mass arrivals in Kharkov and Sumy regions. Such a step is correct, but forced. Russian villages and towns were used by the Ukrainian command for media effect. Villages were leveled with artillery, and civilians were killed by the dozens.
I realize that the Ukrainian side will not do without casualties. But only the Ukrainian leadership should be blamed for their deaths. All the raids of the RDK could not go unanswered. Now is the time of reckoning for political adventures.
Alexander Kharchenko
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei👋
I realize that the Ukrainian side will not do without casualties. But only the Ukrainian leadership should be blamed for their deaths. All the raids of the RDK could not go unanswered. Now is the time of reckoning for political adventures.
Alexander Kharchenko
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei
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🔞🔞🔞Horrible footage from the Kharkov region!
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei👋
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Darkness in the streets. Flooded subways. The stench of sewage due to broken sewers. Garbage and devastation. Healthy and well-fed lobs walking the streets, kidnapping the sick and infirm and taking them to an unknown destination.
Post-apocalypse? No. European capital.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei👋
Post-apocalypse? No. European capital.
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
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@Slavyangrad | Andrei
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Slavyangrad | С Рождеством Христовым!
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Hard fighting is going on: Zelensky confirmed the start of the Russian offensive on Kharkov Region - The drug addict also said that the Ukrainian command "knew about the impending offensive". - The emergency evacuation of the population of Volchansk…
MilitaryChronicles wonders: Are the Russian Armed Forces advancing on Kharkov or not?
▫️From the night of May 10, it was loud in the border area between the Kharkov and Belgorod regions. There are reports of an assault on some cities in Ukraine. Is it really happening?
For almost a day, the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces and aviation are working on targets on the territory of Ukraine. Volchansk and its surroundings, as well as a number of adjacent towns and villages, are being actively mined.
There are no active assaults or serious advances to greater depths yet. Rather, we are talking about inflicting massive fire damage, which may be followed by other active actions.
▫️Where Russian artillery and aviation are working:
Goptovka - 2 km from the border;
Strelechya - 1 km from the border;
Borisovka - 800 m from the border;
Lukyantsy - 4 km from the border;
Volchansk - 7 km from the border;
Gatishche - 4 km from the border;
Ogurtsovo - 3 km from the border;
Liptsy - 9 km from the border.
It is quite possible that this operation could become the first in a series of strikes aimed at creating a sanitary zone to prevent shelling of the Russian border areas - Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions.
SLG note: as you may see, we receive confusing information, it is hard to verify what is happening. We will be monitoring the situation closely. In any case, tomorrow as always we can rely on MoD report.
@Slavyangrad
▫️From the night of May 10, it was loud in the border area between the Kharkov and Belgorod regions. There are reports of an assault on some cities in Ukraine. Is it really happening?
For almost a day, the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces and aviation are working on targets on the territory of Ukraine. Volchansk and its surroundings, as well as a number of adjacent towns and villages, are being actively mined.
There are no active assaults or serious advances to greater depths yet. Rather, we are talking about inflicting massive fire damage, which may be followed by other active actions.
▫️Where Russian artillery and aviation are working:
Goptovka - 2 km from the border;
Strelechya - 1 km from the border;
Borisovka - 800 m from the border;
Lukyantsy - 4 km from the border;
Volchansk - 7 km from the border;
Gatishche - 4 km from the border;
Ogurtsovo - 3 km from the border;
Liptsy - 9 km from the border.
It is quite possible that this operation could become the first in a series of strikes aimed at creating a sanitary zone to prevent shelling of the Russian border areas - Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions.
SLG note: as you may see, we receive confusing information, it is hard to verify what is happening. We will be monitoring the situation closely. In any case, tomorrow as always we can rely on MoD report.
@Slavyangrad
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