Part 11

Ocheretino.

In 2022, during the Russian operation to free the Lugansk People’s Republic, Russia managed to break through the Ukrainian lines and take a town on an important height, Popasnaya. And from this town, which was now behind Ukrainian lines, the Russian troops advanced in all directions, which resembled a blooming flower if viewed on a map.

The same applies now to Ocheretino. It also is on an important height and behind the Ukrainian lines. And this town fell. After it fell, Russia again started to advance in all directions, starting from Ocheretino behind the straight Ukrainian lines.

What is the implication of this? First, the length of the front line is now stretched by an order of magnitude. And there are another few such flowers in the making everywhere on the front lines from Kharkov down to Zaporozhye. Every such flower will stretch the Ukrainian front lines and, by doing this, the demand for personnel to hold back the Russians.
And what resource is Ukraine lacking the most? Personnel. People.

The Russian forces can advance now in less-defended territory behind the Ukrainian main lines, complicating Ukraine’s defense far more.
All of what I just wrote now translates into one certain threat: Collapse.

I have no idea how many troops Ukraine has left, how many they can forcefully mobilize, or how many foreign legion mercenaries will be sent to the place to keep the lines from collapsing. But the question is not IF but WHEN. When will these facts lead to a total collapse of the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnepr?

Again:
There is another meatgrinder in the making with the potential of eating tens of thousands of Ukrainians IF created.

The frontlines are being penetrated everywhere, and wedges, which translate into “flowers,” are being created everywhere. Which demands even more human resources to stabilize the front lines.

All of this raises the question of whether Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk, Slaviansk, etc., will need to be taken by force at all or will the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnepr collapse earlier with a subsequent withdrawal to the west side of the Dnepr?

I have no answer for this but it makes sense to think these questions through.
I’m still curious whether we will see another vector of pressure in Kharkov and Sumy, from the Russian border. We’ll see.

@Slavyangrad

Part 12

Foreign Troops

There are ever more discussions and even indications that foreign troops might actually be deployed in Ukraine. Not just somewhere in Ukraine but directly in Chasov Yar. Is it true or not? Maybe. It doesn’t matter. We can say that roughly 1,000 additional troops (Ukrainian or Foreign) translate into 0.8-day prolonging of the war.

An example: 15,000 French troops (which I still doubt, except the foreign legion, which are mercenaries) translates into the prolonging of the war for = 15,000 x 0.8 = 12 days. The French would be gone (dead/wounded) in 12 days.

Okay, as long they do not set foot in Odessa. Then the Eifel Tower could be turned upside down suddenly…literally. All information is in place.
Before someone asks, 12 days prolongation of the war means 12 days prolongation of the war and not that when the French troops enter Ukraine, all of them would be dead after 12 days. There are a million questions to determine when and where they would fall.

Would they be held in the rear to free up 15,000 Ukrainians? Then they would live a little longer and die step by step by constant drone and missile terror?

Would they be deployed to Chasov Yar? (Nonsense, it is not even logistically possible). Then, they would die within 12 days. Between this black-and-white scenario are many shades of grey.
So, I do not think so much about this Macronian nonsense. After all, I also believe that this whole operation was set up by Western Oligarchs as an operation to nudge the Germans ever more to “do something.” Which translates into “committing suicide.” But we will see.

Nuclear Weapons Drills

Odessa MUST NOT BE TOUCHED by any foreign troops. To highlight this fact in backchannels more information is trickling out. There are indications that Russia might start training with non-strategic (tactical?) nuclear weapons.

Most likely, we are talking about command-level training and/or actual live-fire training with dummy weapons. I don’t know. But it is the clearest sign that everybody who touches Russian cities currently occupied by Ukraine, which are being marked as strategic (ODESSA!!!!!!), will die. Not only the soldiers themselves but the leaders who gave the orders as well. I maintain my assessment from my previous article that I don’t expect such a scenario (10%).

Still, we could see a lot of Western mercenaries dying on the frontlines while trying to stabilize the collapsing front lines. But this doesn’t matter. Remember: 1,000 people = 0.8 days.

@Slavyangrad

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MilitaryChronicles wonders: Are the Russian Armed Forces advancing on Kharkov or not?

▫️From the night of May 10, it was loud in the border area between the Kharkov and Belgorod regions. There are reports of an assault on some cities in Ukraine. Is it really happening?

For almost a day, the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces and aviation are working on targets on the territory of Ukraine. Volchansk and its surroundings, as well as a number of adjacent towns and villages, are being actively mined.

There are no active assaults or serious advances to greater depths yet. Rather, we are talking about inflicting massive fire damage, which may be followed by other active actions.

▫️Where Russian artillery and aviation are working:

Goptovka - 2 km from the border;
Strelechya - 1 km from the border;
Borisovka - 800 m from the border;
Lukyantsy - 4 km from the border;
Volchansk - 7 km from the border;
Gatishche - 4 km from the border;
Ogurtsovo - 3 km from the border;
Liptsy - 9 km from the border.

It is quite possible that this operation could become the first in a series of strikes aimed at creating a sanitary zone to prevent shelling of the Russian border areas - Bryansk, Belgorod and Kursk regions.

SLG note: as you may see, we receive confusing information, it is hard to verify what is happening. We will be monitoring the situation closely. In any case, tomorrow as always we can rely on MoD report.

@Slavyangrad

Russian Defence Ministry weekly report on the progress of the special military operation (5-10 May 2024)

Part I

▫️From 5 to 10 May 2024, in response to the Kiev regime's attempts to damage objects of Russian power infrastructure and defence industry enterprises of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, 27 group strikes by long-range high-precision sea- and air-based weaponry, including the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, were delivered, as a result of which Ukrainian power infrastructure, military industry enterprises, and rail road infrastructure were wiped out.

In addition, strikes were delivered at air defence weaponry, POL bases, uncrewed surface vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles production and maintenance workshops, temporary deployment areas of Ukrainian nationalists formations and foreign mercenaries, as well as AFU manpower and hardware clusters on rail road loading stations.

▫️Units of the Zapad Group of Forces liberated Kotlyarovka and Kislovka (Kharkov region), as well as inflicted losses on units of nine AFU brigades near Stelmakhovka, Novoselkovskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), Novosadovoye (Donetsk People's Republic), and Sinkovka (Kharkov region).

14 counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of three AFU brigades and one Ukrainian National Guard Brigade were repelled near Krakhmalnoye (Kharkov region), Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), and Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 1,015 servicemen, three tanks, including two German-made Leopard tanks, five armoured fighting vehicles, including one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, five motor vehicles, and 23 field artillery howitzers, including five western-made samples.

One U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery warfare station was also neutralised.

▫️During active combat operations, units of the Yug Group of Forces continued to advance to the depth of enemy defences.

Losses were inflicted on manpower and hardware of two AFU assault brigades, eight mechanised brigades, three territorial defence brigade brigades near Spornoye, Andreyevka, Elizavetovka, Kurdyumovka, Pobeda, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

One counter-attack launched by assault detachments of one AFU mechanised brigade was repelled near Krasnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 1,985 seevicemen, three tanks, six armoured fighting vehicles, including one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, 26 motor vehicles, 35 field artillery howitzers, including 13 supplied to Ukraine by Western countries.

In addition, the U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 and AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery warfare stations, as well as three field ammunition depots were wiped out.

▫️Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces liberated Novokalinovo (Donetsk People's Republic), inflicted losses on units of 12 AFU brigades, and repelled 48 enemy counter-attacks near Semyonovka, Solovyovo, Ocheretino, and Netaylovo (Donetsk People's Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 2,360 servicemen, four tanks, including one German-made Leopard tank and two U.S.-made Abrams tanks, 16 armoured fighting vehicles, including two U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and one German-made Marder infantry fighting vehicle, 30 field artillery howitzers, and one Czech-made Vampire MLRS.

@Slavyangrad

Russian Defence Ministry weekly  report on the progress of the special military operation (5-10 May 2024)

Part II

▫️Units of the Vostok Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on two AFU mechanised brigades and two territorial defence brigades near Urozhaynoye, Staromayorskoye, Vodyanoye, and Prechistovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 860 servicemen, seven tanks, eight armoured fighting vehicles, 19 motor vehicles, and 17 field artillery howitzers.

▫️Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of three AFU brigades, as well as marines brigades, territorial defence brigades, and Ukrainian national guard brigades near Zolotaya Balka, Tokaryovka, Ivanovka, Mikhailovka, Stepnoye (Kherson region), and Pavlovka (Zaporozhye region).

One counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 118th Mechanised Brigade was repelled north of Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 240 servicemen, nine motor vehicles, 20 field artillery howitzers, including 11 U.S.-made M777 howitzers.

▫️Missile Troops, Artillery, and unmanned aerial vehicles of the Groups of Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation wiped out one western-made missile weaponry depot near Odessa, one S-300 surface-to-air missile system radar station, and one P-19 detection and tracking radar station for detection and tracking of aerial targets.

In addition, one fuel depot the AFU Joint Logistics Centre was destroyed.

▫️Aviation and air defence units shot down one Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Forces, three U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, 17 French-made Hammer and U.S.-made JDAM guided aerial bombs, 30 GLSDB, HIMARS, Uragan, and Vampire MLRS projectiles, as well as 163 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Over the past week, 13 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered on the line of contact.

@Slavyangrad

Local sources report an unprecedented number of Russian reconnaissance UAVs in the skies over the Kharkov region

@Slavyangrad

A complete ban on visiting cemeteries has been introduced in the Zhytomyr, Donetsk, Kherson and Kharkov regions. In other regions, only specific cemeteries are allowed to be visited.

On memorial days, police will be on duty enforcing this rule and can randomly check people.

Ukrainian authorities say that this has absolutely nothing to do at all with trying to hide the extent of deaths from the population. It is for their safety: cemeteries are dangerous as there are no shelters nearby. Oh, and mine clearance.

@Slavyangrad | Luis