It’s funny because if i saw this post 2 months ago when i was on a hot streak I would have thought it was a dumb take while riding high off wins.

Which is why I enjoy journalling in this channel so much as I get to constantly reflect on my different emotional takes and bias towards my approach.

I’ve always had an extremely stubborn personality, although when I do see enough data, evidence or emotions that my thinking was wrong, I’m very quick to turn the corner.

This recent break has probably been the most enjoyable and stress free one I’ve taken out of the last 3-4 times since going full time with trading a little over a year ago.

Even though I’ve stopped myself from trading in previous breaks, I’ve found it extremely difficult to get crypto out of my mind and it felt like a toxic ex which I can't stop thinking about.

Typically, I’ll still be checking dexscreener 100 times a day and opening the same charts on repeat. Meaning my brain is never really switching off, not allowing me to come back with a refreshed view on the market.

This time round I had multiple days where I almost forgot our casino existed.

Quite the upgrade considering the mental torture i use to put myself through 6 months ago. While I advocate to enjoy your time off, it’s easy to get lost in it and I can see why so many people get scared to take their foot off the gas.

Stopping and starting a train takes a significant amount of energy, sometimes so much to get it moving again it almost feels like you’ll never get it to your previous speed. Although in the grand scheme of things, the quality of your work over a long term time horizon is significantly more important than how many of those days you show up.

Moving forward my focus really wants to be on the output levels of each individual day instead of being proud of having 90 hours screen time at the end of the week.

More deep research, more writing, more actually learning about the mechanisms behind new events or innovations popping up.

When I’m just being online for the sake of it and "monitoring" everything, it really doesn’t feel like I’m upgrading my brain in any way other than constantly feeding my intuition (which is very important but i think you get the point).

The plan is to be much more purposeful with my time and going back to grassroots fundamentals/first principles of why certain things exist.

Markets clearly showing new pairs aren’t being rewarded and for sometime now. It’s been quite refreshing to see the large movers being structurally sound narratives and products which have a strong impact of how we progress forward.

I have to agree with threadguy on the fact that there really isn’t a better use of your time than finding topics you’re interested in on Twitter and posting like a madman. The upside potential and network effects of providing quality information is second to none and a couple good tweets can genuinely change your life.

So I’m going to be less focused on trading itself and more on providing quality content/thoughts for at least the next month.

Also took a piece of my own advice and going to be isolating myself so i can purely focus on my own work and training with zero distractions. Feels like a big weight lifted off my chest knowing I’ve got no one else to be responsible for and would highly recommend it if you're trying to reach peak levels of lock in.

Overall feeling in a much better place than I was 2-3 weeks ago, looking forward to expressing gratitude each and every day for being in the best industry on earth and always hunting for the next opportunity.

Glad to be back and time to scroll through 100k messages in the gc’s.

Guess the coin

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1973639816337084541

Twitter vs Telegram Channel

I’ve seen this topic pop up quite a bit recently and always see people debating the idea of starting a telegram channel.

Even for myself, I’ve done both fluently for 10 months now and still to this day have internal battles over where and how much time I should be spending on each.

This is what my personal experience has been like and I haven’t really seen someone who does both articulate the pro’s and con’s, along with the personality styles you typically see.

Also appreciate the shoutout y22, thought my channel got botted when everyone joined lol. Always been a fan of your writing and how openly you share your emotional states when taking trades. It’s easy to stigmatize traders who are 7/8+ figs and think they don’t suffer the same emotions as everyone else just because they’ve “made it”.

Majority with an audience try not to show the negative emotions they experience as they think it’ll devalue their image and perceive them as bad traders or coping from losses. I believe it builds a stronger connection with your audience as they see you’re human and still learning like everyone else, granted you don’t excessively crash out. Reason being why I try to share my emotion states as much as possible.

I’m sure most of you are already in there but I’d recommend following his journal and trading challenges as he's a very systematic trader. Also used him as a good example for why you might want to create a telegram channel over posting on twitter.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1973738836770316439

https://news.1rj.ru/str/y22_trades

Back in May I wrote a short thesis for why the convergence of local models and cloud simulations will be so critical for the success of operators.

This might not seem like an overly flashy narrative, except it’s one of the most crucial steps in progressing open source robotics innovation.

Companies like OpenAI were leaving clues if you dug deep enough on the general direction operators and VLA’s were taking.

This was a big reason why I was able to have so much conviction on Codec’s architecture, even while the narrative and product seemed very early and unclear to most.

I’ve spelt out some of the different progressions being made with the SDK, if you read between the lines it’ll be quite obvious for what’s coming next.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1974042201886707859

Study working for your bags

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1974414854154006558

Daily Trading Journal - October 4th, 2025

How do I feel about markets today (majors & onchain)?

Been a minute since I’ve done one of these due to my short break, nonetheless we progress.

I think there’s quite an interesting picture evolving with macro that I won’t be able to fully explain in this write up. I’ll probably do an in depth follow up post on my specific views for what I’m seeing.

Tl;dr is jobs are declining fast with unemployment rising as AI and robotics become more efficient. At the same time global liquidity injections are hitting ATH’s. The result is more people losing jobs while the cost of goods and services keeps climbing, the lower class is getting fucked from every angle.

The quantitive easing is only funneling more back to the rich. Along with this I don’t see a catalyst which will spark jobs increasing with the rate of efficiency AI + robotics is producing. Cutting rates is the main driver to increase jobs aka growth assets, so the fact gold has been the outperformer is concerning for myself.

Gold’s outperformance versus growth stocks signals that institutions are more focused on hedging inflationary risk than betting on innovation. They’re pulling money out of risk and parking it in safety which is reflecting caution, not optimism.

Markets are still pricing in a couple rate cuts over the next the next 6 months. As long as we have these in our mid term horizon, I believe markets stay buoyant and range/trend up until proven otherwise. It does feel like markets have gotten significantly more sophisticated, especially for crypto (I’m guessing due to more advanced AI algos coming in).

There’s growing rumours that major AI firms are using their proprietary data to trade markets and generating outsized returns. If true it means shakeouts will be increasingly unnatural, liquidity pockets will be hunted in ways the average trader can’t see.

I’m in the boat of you don’t need to understand macro too in depth to make money onchan, although every few months I like to go really deep and create a thesis around where I think we’re heading as it does benefit having more insight into the move of majors.

Eventually the goal is to have too much size that onchain isn’t a +ev game and you need to play bigger markets, reason why I continually put effort into my macro thoughts.

Ngl felt like I was going a bit insane when we had the second dip down to 109k before this recent run. The weakness in crypto felt very much as a lagger, not underperformer where flows just hadn’t moved in yet.

The current conditions couldn’t be more primed for cryptos outperformance relative to tech/growth assets. Crypto feels like it’s perfectly balanced between inflationary hedge (gold) and growth (Nvidia/tech). While also being a beta and outperformer due to smaller asset class.

For these reasons I do think Q4 will be good, not for seasonality, if anything seasonality makes me more scared due to consensus.

What are the most exciting narratives?

Won’t list the runners this time as I wasn’t able to track them all and feel writing is more valuable at this stage anyway.

The question on everyone’s mind is: is it bnb szn?

To me, this feels very similar to what bonk did where a team with a ton of capital and influence came in and went mafia mode.

Obviously CZ is top 20 richest in the world and has a big chip on his shoulder which you can clearly see from his jail time.

HIs influence is 100x times stronger but the same fundamentals apply. You can’t buy culture. At some point I think BNB eco slowly declines (I’m guessing over the next few days/week) when he eventually stops the TWAP on coins and other narratives which are more exciting pop up.

I was staring at BNB a month ago wondering why there was such little activity when it was at such a high price. Turns out we just needed some crime to light the fuse.

Until proven otherwise, I don’t think it’s great to be a believer in these hot balls of money which pop up. The only time I believe in coins is when there’s an extremely strong web2 backdrop for the coin/narrative which will carry over and have staying powering due to the rate of growth.

Prediction markets seem to be increasing mindshare again. I mentioned how poly markets tge would spark a big catalyst in my last post and looks like people are front running it with pmx. Felt like lanchcoin held polycule down for such a long time and it eventually got to see light now.

Flipr seems relatively undervalued in comparison and the UI looks nice. First mover almost always take the throne, kalshi also seems to want to distant themselves from other bots as well which doesn’t help its case.

Every time Launchcoin moves 20% on the daily we see calls for ICM again. Tbh I really don’t think it boils down to Launchcoins strength or the flywheel, there just isn’t that great of products to buy. We’ve seen what happens with Polycule when there’s a strong backdrop for web2 narratives growing. The flywheel and whatever else will definitely help, but we need more success stories just like people were calling for on memes a month or two ago.

Which is why seeing Aster, Plasma, Avantis, 4, Giggle, Pump etc climbing to 9/10 figs is good for the mindsets of traders seeing that it’s possible for coins to go significantly higher instead of every runner struggling to break 50 mil.

Where do I see markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

When BTC moves 13% in 5 days it’s hard to be overly bullish here. I don’t have a strong read if we’re to break the 120k range in the next week.

Something to note is we’ve been in the 108-120k range for 90 days now. Considering the VIX has bottomed out and looks to be curling up over the past 90 days, I think we’re in for some volatility quite soon (probably within 3 months). So I’m generally leaning more towards up.

In trending markets, we don’t normally see lengthy ranges much longer than 90 days. I think we’re going to see quite the whipsawing over the next 3-6 months and you’ll get to experience first hand why they’re called the Trump crime syndicate, both to the up and downside.

I believe SOL continues to outperform ETH as ETH’s narrative seems to be more exhausted and SOL has stronger backdrops with payments, stablecoin onboarding and institutional adoption. HTF charts all look better as well. Don’t really have any useful thoughts on BNB.

Also I think the thoughts I gave with inflationary hedges outperforming growth stocks kinda carries over on a micro scale for what we’re seeing onchain. Gold is up +38% YTD compared to Nvidia’s +27%.

Call me autistic but Nvidia was always a massive driving of crypto’s performance and a massive signal for risk on (utility coins) assets. Which is why we’ve seen such strong performance from stablecoins this year as they’re representing financial rails (vehicle for digital hedging) as opposed to the lack of strength in new ideas/narratives (ICM has been the closest we’ve come to something sustainable since AI).

The biggest growth narratives come from greater efficiency in day to day lives. Email/Social media = faster communication. Internet = global accessibility. iPhones = portable computer. AI = faster transfer of information. Robotics = reduced labour time.

Find the innovations that are so big it doesn’t matter what BTC does on the one week time frame. All you should be looking to do is capture the froth in that short moment where everyone else realizes it too.

That’s the schizo thoughts I have for now, see you next week.

SOL god rally soon.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1974730034821673247

Went 3x lev long on $ASTER @ $2 with decent size.

Thesis: cz will want to prove binance listing has meaning and will use this as momentum for the BNB eco.

This is a short scalp and not looking to be in this for long (24 hours max).

Also not looking to play the BNB eco except this feels like a fairly good r:r trade considering it’s only up 6% from the listing announcement.

Still holding entire position despite saying I was only looking to be in for 24 hours max.

Some reasons why I like this trade:

Exchanges have a mandate to serve their customers best interests. They’ll only list tokens if they believe there’s a high probability that upon listing the token will appreciate by a significant margin.

Otherwise it becomes very bad business having token listings depreciating and will cause users to stop believing in their business model, causing lower revenue.

So on this merit and the fact CZ is bull posting Aster hard, I struggle to see price going below the price of the listing announcement.

Perps are still trending and representing the strongest asset class (HYPE holding close to its highs despite the vamp).

BTC ATH’s, BNB ATHs - can’t get a better formula for risk on and high volume (perps success stems from volume).

Aster is the relative strength signal of the BNB eco. They know it’s PA dictates how active traders are on BNB and is a reflection of sentiment.

Putting myself inside the heads of the binance team, why would you crime the token up on day 1 of listing? The narrative then focuses on the fact Aster’s price increase is only due to binance exchange listing and blatantly twapping the coin with no real demand.

If you’re trying to take an “organic” approach then you’d wait for OI to decrease over the first 24-48 hours before criming it up, shaking out the leverage traders and giving it the optics of “legitimate” demand.

My TP is set for $2.28.

Even with this thesis, Aster is still a short term scalp and I’m expanding on my ideas of why I’ve broken a rule in my thesis (24 hour max hold). Not looking for this to be a hero trade as I’ve got decent size on and happy to bank profits.

Invalidation is below $1.88 like I said and will be quite an obvious momentum loss on a LTF.

There’s a coin I like but too low to mention.

Been tweeted by Binance twice and also Binance Wallet account. That’s your hint.

I know I said I wasn’t going to play the BNB eco but the runners and their mcaps are insane.

Seeing Palu get listed on binance alpha at 3 mil and running straight to 100 mil is something we haven’t seen in a long time.

My stubbornness has more so been ignorance so I’m going to start taking some gambles. BNB simply looks too strong.

Will most likely go to zero so don’t go stupid.

Only a few people found it.

Pretty good r:r considering Binance have tweeted it multiple times already and they’re pushing the BNB eco hard.

The narrative has done quite well in the past.

I’ll only give hints and will never directly shill 100k tickers in this chat.

Reason being is if I directly shill it then maybe it instantly spikes to 1 mil or whatever arbitrary number. The token becomes very heavy from holders in profit and will be quite difficult to regain momentum.

Also I want to see if there’s genuine appetite for the narrative and people are buying it because they like it, not purely because of my shill (short term flippers).

I knew I was late to the BNB rotation, so I don’t feel as comfortable shilling higher mcap coins which have already moved hard and not looking to be someone else’s exit liquidity.

I’d rather trial something which is on the floor to see if people like a narrative I think is good, while also rewarding those who put in the effort to dig through my hints.

Best case scenario we make a 100x+, worst case you only lose a little bit as I don’t want people to size into higher mcap coins this late in the rotation. Still boils down to skill issue at the end of the day and I need to be more on the ball with my calls/avoiding low caps i don't have massive edge in.

You’ll never see me bull post any of these plays as high conviction and my toning will reflect that. If I do hint or mention something low mcap, there’s a 99% chance of failure, I try to be honest as possible and genuinely not looking to use this channel as exit liquidity.

I’ve mentioned this in the past but since this channels grow a lot recently I felt like reminding everyone on how I operate. Rather over communicate on this stuff so people don’t get the wrong impression.

Will be back to normal content soon, been distracted on side quests in Dubai.

Study working for your bags

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1976534449970913721

Wow what an event to wake up to.

I’ve been through dozens of these but the magnitude of liquidations is the largest I’ve seen before.

Definitely looks like someone big had insane leverage + the whole crypto market in general comparing to stocks.

Not trying to say I predicted this at all but in my daily trading journals I’ve mentioned how we’re going to see a large whipsawing from the trump crime syndicate.

Came earlier than expected, they’ll want better entries on a market that’s been up only for several months now and would have know there was a ton of leverage in the system.

Obviously this is an unpredictable event due to his emotional instability we’ve seen hundreds of times before. My knee jerk reaction is this won’t get much worse, at least for the next week or so.

Although you can never know and there’s always the possibility of this being a pico macro top in markets, so when allocating to dips keep this in mind.,

Many good coins are on discount today and I’m personally not selling. Cobie put it well in saying that the coins you buy with a strong thesis far outweigh those ones you buy for momentum trades. As markets advanced it’s much better to be in the products with real fundamentals you believe in as opposed to sentiment/mindshare.

These type of days are the admission fee we pay for having the chance to change our lives with a few clicks of a button on a short time horizon.

Anyone who’s allocated would have been hit hard today, would recommend taking a couple days off to spend with friends or family.

If you’ve been zero’d out just know it’s apart of the journey to becoming a great trader. Like Zinc said, it’s happened to me, him, and anyone else you would consider as someone in the upper echelons of this industry.

When you’re able to sit at your computer without wanting to punch it, start to journal where you went wrong. Ask questions about your trading framework, how much % of stablecoins should you hold, your off ramping strategy and guaranteeing your future etc.

Even I found myself steering away from my framework recently and it’s funny how quickly you can pay price.

Trading isn’t hard, making money isn’t relatively hard, the discipline to do what’s right when everything is moving at light speed around you is the hardest part. The losses will teach you multiples more than your wins and expose the holes in your system.

You don’t need to make it all back tomorrow, next week or even next month. Be patient and wait for the right moment of strength with your read on the market.

A good rule of thumb when you go to put on positions is pretend you’re showing a close friend the size, % of port and volatility of the asset. Would they call you insane for putting it on? If so wait 24 hours and see if you still think it’s a good idea.

Stay safe out there and remember, god gives his toughest battles to his strongest soldiers.

Finding edge in an increasingly unstable trading environment

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1977629443276313016

Had a great in person session with Moyai (codec co founder) yesterday going through the data pipelines and fine tuning algo’s for the SDK.

To my surprise, the layers they’re building is much deeper than I original understood and it’s a complete grounds up approach.

The way they’re handling connectivity to robots is very similar to how you might image cross chain or omnichain bridging but on a much larger and more effective scale.

For dApps to work across multi blockchains you need to support the different consensus mechanisms and speeds each chain is capable of. Similar with robots, each one has different motors, sensors, joints (actuators), eyes etc. If you want to create or use the same task or “app” with different styles of robots, how do you convert the format into different machines?

This is a core feature of the Codec sdk and they’re abstracting away all this complexity.

Right now there’s no way for someone to take a task like getting your humanoid to cook you dinner and have that applicable for any type of robot/humanoid.

If you show a Figure humanoid how to do it, you can’t convert it over to a Optimus humanoid. You’ll need to rewrite the entire code to match the humanoids capabilities and requirements.

Codec’s taking a modular approach where instead of building tasks for whole systems, it breaks each part of the robot down into core components like I mentioned earlier (motors, sensors, actuators, eyes etc). Meaning it can easily plug in to any type of robot/humanoid no matter its system and instruct it to carry out requirements based on individual parts.

We’re obviously going to see a global robotics race like we’ve never seen before. Any competent team will be bulldozing towards this as they know the incentive value for being one of the leaders will replace majority of the labour market (50% global GDP).

This is only one of the layers they’re working towards, I’ll keep sharing my research and helping them build in public so it becomes more obvious how large their ambition is.

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1978030344042381611

Robotics is the next industrial revolution

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1978331525000069594

CEX’s have been fucking over projects as long as crypto’s existed

https://x.com/Cryptotrissy/status/1978731162420854971

Daily Trading Journal - October 16th, 2025

How do I feel about markets today (majors & onchain)?

I think the most important skillset for understanding crypto’s movements the last 9 months has been trying to put yourself in the Trump’s family shoes and think about how they make the most money.

Early innings -> launched trump coin = massively liquidity event for their pockets and more dry powder

Feb to May -> create market fear to get better entries, went hard on tariffs once economy was close to breaking point and had best possible entries

May to Aug -> removed all tariffs, sent markets vertical again and added multiples to their net worth

Aug to Sep -> kept markets buoyant for WLFI launch, another large liquidity event for their pockets

Sep to Oct (current) -> would have cleared some cash from WLFI with previous positions being massively up. Starting the tariff talk again.

So after this mini thought experiment, if you had to create the most likely scenario, I would say the Trump family is up a significant margin on their core holdings + WLFI cashout. If I’m to make a bear case for markets then I would presume they’d send it down to find better entries as pushing it higher will take significantly more effort.

Macro is essentially the same as what I said in my previous post. Jobs declining, liquidity coming in, growth being outperformed by gold etc. If markets were to tank with the backdrop of rates and easing, it would look bad in the retail eye, putting the fed in an uncomfortable position to make some dramatic changes.

The more interesting topic is Trump being back on his tariff horse. In my previous post I said how the VIX looked to be bottoming out and we’d see some volatility within the next 3-6 months. Looks like it came sooner than expected.

VIX bottoming out and identifying it (fear index of S&P 500) meaning traders are getting increasingly nervous about macro situation and instability.

One of the hardest parts about trading for myself is seeing data which counters your thesis, especially on a shorter time frame which you need to take a very opposing position to.

This is what happened in AI szn where I saw a bunch of red flags for loss of momentum and top signals across the entire ecosystem, shortly after Trump coin launched and wiped everyone out. Even without Trump coin, the amount of new projects:novelty ratio was growing at concerning rates, meaning the narrative can’t sustain as fragmentation outweighs new flows.

Something that’s become increasingly evident is that the market appears to be getting quite tired of Trump’s irrationality. Apewood put it well saying there’s a lot of people who are tiring and desiring a break from markets (from headline driven market circus) than they are bearish.

Personally I feel this as well and the longer it continues the harder it is to show up with consistent energy each day as the game feels increasingly unfair, similar to what we’re seeing with Sol onchain.

It’s important to recognise that these are emotions and not signals, yes, they might apply to a significant amount of people and can be used for sentiment, although the people who move this market are rarely emotional and profit off others irrationality.

What are the most exciting narratives?

If I’m being honest this has probably been the most bored I’ve been with onchain in a while. Maybe it’s due to personal reasons/environment but there hasn’t been anything which gives me the urge to accumulate a ton of screen time.

BNB eco was the best runners we’ve seen in a while, as anticipated it lasted a week, partly crumbled by Oct 10th and partly by CZ’s ego + clowning himself with the hyperliquid stuff. I should of stuck to my guns and knew it wasn’t a +ev game for me to play.

Few thoughts on narratives:

ICM narrative refuses to die and is consistently the most talked about narrative I see amongst other traders. I guess you can fit prediction markets into that as they go hand in hand.

With Pasternak being him usual self, we’ve seen more competitors with ICM and Metadao which is bringing some much needed fresh air. I’ve been lazy and haven’t dug into either but they seem to be getting more legitimate mindshare compared to anything else I’m seeing atm.

While I don’t find them particularly exciting, I do think people are underwriting prediction markets with polymarket and kalshi raising at such high valuations. It’s clear they’ll have a token relatively soon and will be competing for the throne, meaning incentives and marketing will likely ramp up (can already see this with large CT native KOLs becoming ambassadors).

For those who are still actively playing onchain, I see better asymmetry in prediction markets than ICM in this current moment. Purely from optics and data, not narrative. ICM needs more groundwork and onboarding by the Solana foundation, predictions feel very visible and tangible with the numbers they’re producing, even if it’s a product that’s not enticing to CT users.

Useless has had some impressive strength and also carried up some other bonk eco plays. Was quite interesting to watch it perform while the entire BNB eco was hot and also recovering to ATH’s after Oct 10th. Not too sure what to make of it honestly.

Umbra had a nice launch and it was good to see the team not being greedy. Although I’m not sure why there was so much hype other than a beta to zcash for privacy. The tech wasn’t anything special and onchain sleuths would be able to find info if they really wanted.

Side rant; if there was a project that’s genuinely privacy proof, very few of us have high enough IQ’s to distinguish whether the encryption methods are legit or not. The smartest mathematicians from ivy leagues are scouted by government agencies to work on encryptions and many of the “privacy” protocols you see are government psyops.

Where do I see markets tomorrow (majors & onchain)?

At the time of writing this we’re sitting on my golden support level of 108k on BTC.

While I felt confident about the previous two touches of it during September, I can’t say I feel as confident about this one. Mainly due to its weakness against stocks, the VIX bottoming out over the past 5 months and the mental framework I shared early of putting myself in the Trump family’s shoes.

I hate to be a bear but there’s a lot more gravity towards the downside and cards being dealt against us to be bullish here. Much of the macro backdrop feels forecasted and it would take a large amount of positive news to send us back to ATH’s and beyond. It wouldn’t take the SPX to drop much to send crypto to goblin town.

One important date to keep an eye on is Oct 30th which is the deadline for the China tariffs and will likely end in a result for market direction. Based on this I can see us falling below 108k and chopping around with 100k as major support until the china tariffs resolve. (This also aligns with the next FOMC meeting).

Remember, being bullish is highly praised, being a bear is frowned upon but doing so at the right time can save you years of progress. Never feel bad for changing bias and listen to what the data + intuition is telling you.

If my predictions are right it’ll probably be smart touching grass for the next week. Last week of October will be where significant opportunities lie and probably the key area I’d be looking for a reversal and reassessment going into FOMC and china tariff decisions.

Onchain will bottom before majors, a trip to 100k would cause a lot of carnage though. Hard for it to get significantly worse than it is. Don’t do anything irrational, time goes much slower when you’re losing. Two weeks in crypto feels like forever but won’t have an outstanding impact on your future.

In the meantime I’ll continue doing robotics research, working with the Codec team and hopefully get some interesting longer form content done.

Sorry for the bear posting, hope I’m wrong (cockroach mode).