Forwarded from Russian Head
Elon Musk was added to the Mirotvorets website as an enemy of all Bandera after his refusal to pay for the Internet in Ukraine, including for the military needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The entry might have bien taken down, but many sources insist it was there
The entry might have bien taken down, but many sources insist it was there
Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
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“12 Kalibr flew from the Black Sea to Ukraine in the morning, 18 of them were shot down,” said Arestovich
We nominate him for Nobel Prize in Mathematics
We nominate him for Nobel Prize in Mathematics
Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
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🇷🇺Another direct hit by Russian Lancet kamikaze drone
Forwarded from DD Geopolitics
As part of the new military assistance package, the following types of equipment and weapons will be transferred to Ukraine:
▪️Great Britain:
➖100 AIM-120 anti-aircraft guided missiles for NASAMS air defense systems
➖100 tactical UAVs
➖18 155mm howitzers
▪️France:
➖15 TRF1 howitzers
➖6 ACS CAESAR
➖3 MLRS LRU M27
➖12 SAM Crotale
▪️Canada:
➖500 thousand sets of winter uniforms
➖155 mm artillery ammunition
🔻Western countries have increased the level of military assistance provided to Ukraine after massive missile strikes by the RuAF on energy infrastructure facilities.
This fact is a direct consequence of the words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that "the defeat of Ukraine will mean the defeat of NATO, and this cannot be allowed."
Deliveries of modern weapons to Ukraine will increase in the coming weeks. On the eve of winter, the main task of the AFU is to capture as many territories as possible in order to provide a more advantageous position for the West before the cold.
@Rybar
▪️Great Britain:
➖100 AIM-120 anti-aircraft guided missiles for NASAMS air defense systems
➖100 tactical UAVs
➖18 155mm howitzers
▪️France:
➖15 TRF1 howitzers
➖6 ACS CAESAR
➖3 MLRS LRU M27
➖12 SAM Crotale
▪️Canada:
➖500 thousand sets of winter uniforms
➖155 mm artillery ammunition
🔻Western countries have increased the level of military assistance provided to Ukraine after massive missile strikes by the RuAF on energy infrastructure facilities.
This fact is a direct consequence of the words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that "the defeat of Ukraine will mean the defeat of NATO, and this cannot be allowed."
Deliveries of modern weapons to Ukraine will increase in the coming weeks. On the eve of winter, the main task of the AFU is to capture as many territories as possible in order to provide a more advantageous position for the West before the cold.
@Rybar
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
Avdeevka Front Line Updates:
Over the course of October 13, 2022, troops of the 11th Brigade of the DPR and the Russian Armed Forces advanced significantly to the north of Avdeevka, along the Krutaya Balka-Kamenka-Veseloye-Krasnogorovka line and to the south, along the Opytnoye-Vodyanoye line, having crossed over the M-30 highway and taken control of the Avdeevka interchange.
As a result, the enemy grouping in Avdeevka now finds itself in semi-encirclement. As before, the main objective of the advancing Russian Army is the village of Orlovka, after the taking of which the supply of the enemy grouping in Avdeevka from Konstantinovka will be completely terminated.
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Over the course of October 13, 2022, troops of the 11th Brigade of the DPR and the Russian Armed Forces advanced significantly to the north of Avdeevka, along the Krutaya Balka-Kamenka-Veseloye-Krasnogorovka line and to the south, along the Opytnoye-Vodyanoye line, having crossed over the M-30 highway and taken control of the Avdeevka interchange.
As a result, the enemy grouping in Avdeevka now finds itself in semi-encirclement. As before, the main objective of the advancing Russian Army is the village of Orlovka, after the taking of which the supply of the enemy grouping in Avdeevka from Konstantinovka will be completely terminated.
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Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
GB: The Bigger the Arrows, the Harder They Fall.
The news of Ukrainian forces amassing a 60k grouping to take on Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka is more than likely a feint to conceal the true plans of the Ukrainian command.
Whenever the Ukrainian forces have faced layered defensive formations of the Russian Army, they became bogged down in heavy fighting with little forward advance.
This is evident from the fighting in and around the Andreevka bridgehead and at Davydov Brod. This is also clear from the Ukrainian experience of assaulting Krasny Liman, where the heroic defence of the vastly outnumbered BARS-16 volunteer battalion of the Russian forces caused the Ukrainian army to lose its momentum and initiative, resulting in the stalemate along the Svatovo front and in a pullback of Ukrainian units and the loss of territory in the Kremennaya sector, along the Zherebets river boundary.
It is only where Ukraine has been able to exploit the sparsely (and lightly) defended front lines in the Balakleya-Kupyansk-Izyum triangle and to attack with mobile units at the junctures between Russian units that the Ukrainian army has had success.
This is also precisely what happened in the Krivoy Rog-northeastern Kherson direction. Just as on the Kharkov front, the area northeast of Dudchany, in the Vysokopolye-Novovorontsovka-Dudchany triangle was sparsely and lightly defended, as all the attention of the strained Russian defensive lines was focused on the defence of the Andreevka-Davydov Brod incursion.
With Ukraine exploiting this advantage—an advantage that existed solely because of Ukraine's numerical superiority—the Russian army pulled back, vacating the salient north of the Davydov Brod-Dudchany line. The pullback made the porous front line solid, and the Ukrainian advance stalled, with the Russian forces even attempting limited counter-maneuvers in the direction of Sukhoi Stavok.
This has been the story of the Ukrainian counter-offensive operations: Exploiting Russian lack of personnel and attacking at junctures between understaffed units using mobile groups—a tactic that was honed as long ago as during the first limited Ukrainian counter-offensive to the north of Kharkov earlier in this conflict. In encounters with layered Russian Army defences, the Ukrainian forces have sustained significant, painful, and, in the long term, unsustainable casualties and equipment losses.
Why would Ukraine attempt a massive 60k offensive operation with an army that is not yet ready for such an adventure (if it ever will be)? Two possible reasons come to mind: (1) because it is pushed to do so by its overseas masters, or (2) because it is a feint intended to conceal a different maneuver altogether. While we cannot dismiss the former, nor can we disregard the urgency of trying a critical move now, before the Russian mobilization is complete, the Ukrainians (and their sponsors) have shown themselves to be finer tacticians than many expected.
Just as the Andreevka bridgehead incursion was paired up with a rapid advance in the Kharkov theatre (exploiting weaknesses, rather than blindly smashing against strengths) and, eventually, the "toad-leap" assault in the Berislav direction (toward Dudchany, in the northeastern Kherson Oblast)—both of which were vastly more successful than anything that Ukraine achieved with the Andreevka-Davydov Brod bridgehead—we can expect that any demonstration of a massive counter-offensive against Kherson (especially one that is being telegraphed so obviously) will be accompanied by a smarter tactical move elsewhere.
(continued in the following post)
https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/14
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The news of Ukrainian forces amassing a 60k grouping to take on Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka is more than likely a feint to conceal the true plans of the Ukrainian command.
Whenever the Ukrainian forces have faced layered defensive formations of the Russian Army, they became bogged down in heavy fighting with little forward advance.
This is evident from the fighting in and around the Andreevka bridgehead and at Davydov Brod. This is also clear from the Ukrainian experience of assaulting Krasny Liman, where the heroic defence of the vastly outnumbered BARS-16 volunteer battalion of the Russian forces caused the Ukrainian army to lose its momentum and initiative, resulting in the stalemate along the Svatovo front and in a pullback of Ukrainian units and the loss of territory in the Kremennaya sector, along the Zherebets river boundary.
It is only where Ukraine has been able to exploit the sparsely (and lightly) defended front lines in the Balakleya-Kupyansk-Izyum triangle and to attack with mobile units at the junctures between Russian units that the Ukrainian army has had success.
This is also precisely what happened in the Krivoy Rog-northeastern Kherson direction. Just as on the Kharkov front, the area northeast of Dudchany, in the Vysokopolye-Novovorontsovka-Dudchany triangle was sparsely and lightly defended, as all the attention of the strained Russian defensive lines was focused on the defence of the Andreevka-Davydov Brod incursion.
With Ukraine exploiting this advantage—an advantage that existed solely because of Ukraine's numerical superiority—the Russian army pulled back, vacating the salient north of the Davydov Brod-Dudchany line. The pullback made the porous front line solid, and the Ukrainian advance stalled, with the Russian forces even attempting limited counter-maneuvers in the direction of Sukhoi Stavok.
This has been the story of the Ukrainian counter-offensive operations: Exploiting Russian lack of personnel and attacking at junctures between understaffed units using mobile groups—a tactic that was honed as long ago as during the first limited Ukrainian counter-offensive to the north of Kharkov earlier in this conflict. In encounters with layered Russian Army defences, the Ukrainian forces have sustained significant, painful, and, in the long term, unsustainable casualties and equipment losses.
Why would Ukraine attempt a massive 60k offensive operation with an army that is not yet ready for such an adventure (if it ever will be)? Two possible reasons come to mind: (1) because it is pushed to do so by its overseas masters, or (2) because it is a feint intended to conceal a different maneuver altogether. While we cannot dismiss the former, nor can we disregard the urgency of trying a critical move now, before the Russian mobilization is complete, the Ukrainians (and their sponsors) have shown themselves to be finer tacticians than many expected.
Just as the Andreevka bridgehead incursion was paired up with a rapid advance in the Kharkov theatre (exploiting weaknesses, rather than blindly smashing against strengths) and, eventually, the "toad-leap" assault in the Berislav direction (toward Dudchany, in the northeastern Kherson Oblast)—both of which were vastly more successful than anything that Ukraine achieved with the Andreevka-Davydov Brod bridgehead—we can expect that any demonstration of a massive counter-offensive against Kherson (especially one that is being telegraphed so obviously) will be accompanied by a smarter tactical move elsewhere.
(continued in the following post)
https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/14
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https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx
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Visualization of the Rumoured Ukrainian Plans to Assault Kherson with a 60k grouping.
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
(concluded from the previous post)
GB: The Bigger the Arrows, the Harder They Fall.
That elsewhere is, in my opinion, the Zaporozhye theatre, with an attempt at a deep strike through to the heartland of the Russian territory north of the Azov sea. Frankly, it would not matter even if the assault does not penetrate all that far—the morale and media impact of such a raid in the direction of Melitopol or Berdyansk (no need even to reach them) would be a significant victory for Ukraine. It would also critically threaten the entire Kherson grouping of the Russian Army without any need for a wasteful frontal assault against the layered Russian defences in Kherson—layers that do not exist anywhere to the same extent along the Orekhov-Gulyai Pole line of the front.
For that reason, Russia must watch the Zaporozhye theatre carefully and not fall into the trap of driving all available reserves to Kherson—like it was done, to some extent, before the crisis along the Kharkov front. Mistakes must not be repeated, and, with the nearing completion of the Russian mobilization, it may be Ukraine's turn to make mistakes in a rush to secure a significant victory before the 300k-strong Russian force floods the Ukrainian theatre.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/14
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@Slavyangrad
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GB: The Bigger the Arrows, the Harder They Fall.
That elsewhere is, in my opinion, the Zaporozhye theatre, with an attempt at a deep strike through to the heartland of the Russian territory north of the Azov sea. Frankly, it would not matter even if the assault does not penetrate all that far—the morale and media impact of such a raid in the direction of Melitopol or Berdyansk (no need even to reach them) would be a significant victory for Ukraine. It would also critically threaten the entire Kherson grouping of the Russian Army without any need for a wasteful frontal assault against the layered Russian defences in Kherson—layers that do not exist anywhere to the same extent along the Orekhov-Gulyai Pole line of the front.
For that reason, Russia must watch the Zaporozhye theatre carefully and not fall into the trap of driving all available reserves to Kherson—like it was done, to some extent, before the crisis along the Kharkov front. Mistakes must not be repeated, and, with the nearing completion of the Russian mobilization, it may be Ukraine's turn to make mistakes in a rush to secure a significant victory before the 300k-strong Russian force floods the Ukrainian theatre.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/14
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https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx
@Slavyangrad
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Visualization of the Rumoured Ukrainian Plans to Assault Kherson with a 60k grouping.
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Grigori Rasputin)
Where are the remaining Ukrainian fighter jets hiding?
Exclusive Readovka map (map translated by @Slavyangrad, https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/13)
Ukrainian military aviation, it seems, is living out its last days - flights of aerobatic teams in colorful demonstration colors are already being pressed into battle. In two days of active "geraniuming" (using the "Geranium" UAV), there have been three confirmed Ukrainian combat aircraft losses: Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44166), (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44190), as well as a Su-24MR reconnaissance plane (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44164). The Su-24MR was lost in an attempt to identify Geranium drone launch sites. According to various estimates, Ukraine's current force is no more than 20 fighters. The daily loss of just one aircraft may soon lead to the complete destruction of Ukrainian combat aviation capability.
The current foundations of Ukrainian air defense aviation are Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. It appears that since the appearance in Ukraine of Russian-Iranian Geraniums, the main task of these fighters has been to combat these so-called shahid-mopeds. This map of current bases, with estimates of Su-27 and MiG-29 ranges, was prepared by the analytical department of the Readovka holding, to assess current airspace coverage.
It is worth noting that the airfields in Mirgorod and Vasilkov were permanent bases for Ukrainian fighter brigades even before the start of the SMO. Nikolaev and Odessa have long also been used as temporary bases, however, the Kropyvnytskyi and Dolgintsevo airbases were reactivated after the start of the special operation. Today, both of these airfields are frontline bases, from which Ukrainian military aviation can reach the DPR and LPR.
As can be seen, the combat radius of AFU combat jets covers practically all of Ukraine, although effective engagement of Geraniums requires the fighters to be in the same place and time as the drone. For this to happen, the drone needs to be detected in advance which is very difficult to achieve. For that reason, the true interception radius may be reduced by at least 3-4 times.
from @ReadovkaNews (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44290)
@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Subaru X)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Exclusive Readovka map (map translated by @Slavyangrad, https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/13)
Ukrainian military aviation, it seems, is living out its last days - flights of aerobatic teams in colorful demonstration colors are already being pressed into battle. In two days of active "geraniuming" (using the "Geranium" UAV), there have been three confirmed Ukrainian combat aircraft losses: Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44166), (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44190), as well as a Su-24MR reconnaissance plane (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44164). The Su-24MR was lost in an attempt to identify Geranium drone launch sites. According to various estimates, Ukraine's current force is no more than 20 fighters. The daily loss of just one aircraft may soon lead to the complete destruction of Ukrainian combat aviation capability.
The current foundations of Ukrainian air defense aviation are Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. It appears that since the appearance in Ukraine of Russian-Iranian Geraniums, the main task of these fighters has been to combat these so-called shahid-mopeds. This map of current bases, with estimates of Su-27 and MiG-29 ranges, was prepared by the analytical department of the Readovka holding, to assess current airspace coverage.
It is worth noting that the airfields in Mirgorod and Vasilkov were permanent bases for Ukrainian fighter brigades even before the start of the SMO. Nikolaev and Odessa have long also been used as temporary bases, however, the Kropyvnytskyi and Dolgintsevo airbases were reactivated after the start of the special operation. Today, both of these airfields are frontline bases, from which Ukrainian military aviation can reach the DPR and LPR.
As can be seen, the combat radius of AFU combat jets covers practically all of Ukraine, although effective engagement of Geraniums requires the fighters to be in the same place and time as the drone. For this to happen, the drone needs to be detected in advance which is very difficult to achieve. For that reason, the true interception radius may be reduced by at least 3-4 times.
from @ReadovkaNews (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44290)
@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Subaru X)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
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@ReadovkaNews Map: Where Are the Remaining Ukrainian Fighter Jets Hiding?
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Grigori Rasputin)
Where are the remaining Ukrainian fighter jets hiding?
Exclusive Readovka map (map translated by @Slavyangrad, https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/13)
Ukrainian military aviation, it seems, is living out its last days - flights of aerobatic teams in colorful demonstration colors are already being pressed into battle. In two days of active "geraniuming" (using the "Geranium" UAV), there have been three confirmed Ukrainian combat aircraft losses: Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44166), (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44190), as well as a Su-24MR reconnaissance plane (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44164). The Su-24MR was lost in an attempt to identify Geranium drone launch sites. According to various estimates, Ukraine's current force is no more than 20 fighters. The daily loss of just one aircraft may soon lead to the complete destruction of Ukrainian combat aviation capability.
The current foundations of Ukrainian air defense aviation are Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. It appears that since the appearance in Ukraine of Russian-Iranian Geraniums, the main task of these fighters has been to combat these so-called shahid-mopeds. This map of current bases, with estimates of Su-27 and MiG-29 ranges, was prepared by the analytical department of the Readovka holding, to assess current airspace coverage.
It is worth noting that the airfields in Mirgorod and Vasilkov were permanent bases for Ukrainian fighter brigades even before the start of the SMO. Nikolaev and Odessa have long also been used as temporary bases, however, the Kropyvnytskyi and Dolgintsevo airbases were reactivated after the start of the special operation. Today, both of these airfields are frontline bases, from which Ukrainian military aviation can reach the DPR and LPR.
As can be seen, the combat radius of AFU combat jets covers practically all of Ukraine, although effective engagement of Geraniums requires the fighters to be in the same place and time as the drone. For this to happen, the drone needs to be detected in advance which is very difficult to achieve. For that reason, the true interception radius may be reduced by at least 3-4 times.
from @ReadovkaNews (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44290)
@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Subaru X)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Exclusive Readovka map (map translated by @Slavyangrad, https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/13)
Ukrainian military aviation, it seems, is living out its last days - flights of aerobatic teams in colorful demonstration colors are already being pressed into battle. In two days of active "geraniuming" (using the "Geranium" UAV), there have been three confirmed Ukrainian combat aircraft losses: Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44166), (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44190), as well as a Su-24MR reconnaissance plane (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44164). The Su-24MR was lost in an attempt to identify Geranium drone launch sites. According to various estimates, Ukraine's current force is no more than 20 fighters. The daily loss of just one aircraft may soon lead to the complete destruction of Ukrainian combat aviation capability.
The current foundations of Ukrainian air defense aviation are Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. It appears that since the appearance in Ukraine of Russian-Iranian Geraniums, the main task of these fighters has been to combat these so-called shahid-mopeds. This map of current bases, with estimates of Su-27 and MiG-29 ranges, was prepared by the analytical department of the Readovka holding, to assess current airspace coverage.
It is worth noting that the airfields in Mirgorod and Vasilkov were permanent bases for Ukrainian fighter brigades even before the start of the SMO. Nikolaev and Odessa have long also been used as temporary bases, however, the Kropyvnytskyi and Dolgintsevo airbases were reactivated after the start of the special operation. Today, both of these airfields are frontline bases, from which Ukrainian military aviation can reach the DPR and LPR.
As can be seen, the combat radius of AFU combat jets covers practically all of Ukraine, although effective engagement of Geraniums requires the fighters to be in the same place and time as the drone. For this to happen, the drone needs to be detected in advance which is very difficult to achieve. For that reason, the true interception radius may be reduced by at least 3-4 times.
from @ReadovkaNews (https://news.1rj.ru/str/readovkanews/44290)
@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Subaru X)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
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@Slavyangrad Images
@ReadovkaNews Map: Where Are the Remaining Ukrainian Fighter Jets Hiding?
Forwarded from foxblog channel
CovertAction Magazine
How Much Longer Can the U.S. Continue to Wage Economic War on Europe, and Much of the World, Without a Major Blowback Effect?
[Source: eurasiareview.com] Sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has awakened many people to the gangster methods that have been deployed for years by the U.S. government doing the bidding of mul…
Forwarded from foxblog channel
Voltaire Network
The United States declares war on Russia, Germany, the Netherlands and France, by Thierry Meyssan
While the international press treats the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a news item, we analyze it as an act of war against Germany and the European Union. Indeed, the three gas supply routes to Western Europe have been cut off simultaneously…
https://libya360.wordpress.com/2022/10/13/the-thin-red-line-nato-cant-afford-to-lose-kabul-and-kiev/
INTERNATIONALIST 360°
The Thin Red Line: NATO Can’t Afford to Lose Kabul and Kiev
Pepe Escobar Russia will not allow the Empire to control Ukraine, whatever it takes. That’s intrinsically linked to the future of the Greater Eurasia Partnership. Let’s start with Pipelineistan. Ne…
Forwarded from foxblog channel
CovertAction Magazine
How Much Longer Can the U.S. Continue to Wage Economic War on Europe, and Much of the World, Without a Major Blowback Effect?
[Source: eurasiareview.com] Sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has awakened many people to the gangster methods that have been deployed for years by the U.S. government doing the bidding of mul…
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
CONCLUSION: Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART II (2/3)
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13629
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13630
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13819
We begin with the logical assumption that bullies cannot understand anything but sheer, brute force. Their mental condition is such that their mind is fixed on obtaining what it wants without any regard for consequences, pretext, or context. They are willing to trample upon anything to get their material reward, or just get the fun of humiliating you! Such is the nature of Kiev’s handlers, I don’t blame Zelensky much for this whole mess—he is just a pawn.
So the Russians had to break a nose and teach a lesson to its adversary, now that it had come to this. They knew it was a high-risk operation that would end Ukraine fast had it succeeded. They also knew they weren’t ready for a major war that could exceed the size of a regional conflict. They knew Ukraine standing its ground was always a scenario. They knew NATO’s involvement in Ukraine. What they had in place were contingency plans. And Russians proved they could adapt to the rapidly evolving situation mostly successfully.
Around August it was evident that the lines were not advancing anymore. Ukrainian shelling had intensified, with small gains here and there, positional fighting, and a great struggle for Donbass continuing in Donetsk’s suburbs, one of the most fortified areas on Earth. The defense had stiffened everywhere, and the Ukrainians were preparing to attack. It was a no-brainer for Russia to switch to defensive tactics, where Ukrainian superiority in manpower and equipment would matter less, while preparing for a new stage of the war, with the ante raising.
By September 10 Ukraine got back most of the Kharkov oblast, including Izyum. Russians withdrew orderly but still, it wasn’t a textbook retreat either, there were losses. In another 3 weeks, the Ukrainian forces took Lyman, at a huge cost in lives and equipment. On the Kherson front, they pushed towards Davidy Brod and got minimal gains, and disproportionate loses. The meat and metal grinder worked full time. Those were some of their best, Nazis and mercenaries too. And then in Donbass, the battle for Artemovsk is going to begin soon.
Meanwhile, referenda were held and the breakaway regions voted to join Russia. A partial mobilization began in Russia (first mobilization after 80 years I believe), aiming for 300 thousand troops for the SMO. It is obvious that Russia had to speed up things; everyone was thinking the referenda would take place on November 4, National Unity day. Everyone was getting pissed off with retreating and all responses, yet asymmetrical, were not enough to answer Ukraine's growing impunity. And it was finally being understood–the hard way–that more commitment is necessary. Blame the Russian casualty aversion, probably WW2 trauma.
And now offensives ran out of steam and big words came out about nuking Russia preemptively, more sanctions packages that destroy economies in Europe and hurt developing nations, and more “endless” support to Kiev announced by the usual. Is that a winner’s attitude? And then some terrorist attacks that made Russia finally take off at least one glove.
Today it was more of a display of firepower, a warning. Putin didn’t want it to come to this, he wants as much of Ukraine intact, it is vital that it must not become a failed state and be a brewing ground for trouble. All that is needed is sane leadership that can make serious agreements with Russia, including reconstruction, not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for Russia’s. The less he has to recover the better.
(concluded in the following post)
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https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx
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https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13629
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13630
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13819
We begin with the logical assumption that bullies cannot understand anything but sheer, brute force. Their mental condition is such that their mind is fixed on obtaining what it wants without any regard for consequences, pretext, or context. They are willing to trample upon anything to get their material reward, or just get the fun of humiliating you! Such is the nature of Kiev’s handlers, I don’t blame Zelensky much for this whole mess—he is just a pawn.
So the Russians had to break a nose and teach a lesson to its adversary, now that it had come to this. They knew it was a high-risk operation that would end Ukraine fast had it succeeded. They also knew they weren’t ready for a major war that could exceed the size of a regional conflict. They knew Ukraine standing its ground was always a scenario. They knew NATO’s involvement in Ukraine. What they had in place were contingency plans. And Russians proved they could adapt to the rapidly evolving situation mostly successfully.
Around August it was evident that the lines were not advancing anymore. Ukrainian shelling had intensified, with small gains here and there, positional fighting, and a great struggle for Donbass continuing in Donetsk’s suburbs, one of the most fortified areas on Earth. The defense had stiffened everywhere, and the Ukrainians were preparing to attack. It was a no-brainer for Russia to switch to defensive tactics, where Ukrainian superiority in manpower and equipment would matter less, while preparing for a new stage of the war, with the ante raising.
By September 10 Ukraine got back most of the Kharkov oblast, including Izyum. Russians withdrew orderly but still, it wasn’t a textbook retreat either, there were losses. In another 3 weeks, the Ukrainian forces took Lyman, at a huge cost in lives and equipment. On the Kherson front, they pushed towards Davidy Brod and got minimal gains, and disproportionate loses. The meat and metal grinder worked full time. Those were some of their best, Nazis and mercenaries too. And then in Donbass, the battle for Artemovsk is going to begin soon.
Meanwhile, referenda were held and the breakaway regions voted to join Russia. A partial mobilization began in Russia (first mobilization after 80 years I believe), aiming for 300 thousand troops for the SMO. It is obvious that Russia had to speed up things; everyone was thinking the referenda would take place on November 4, National Unity day. Everyone was getting pissed off with retreating and all responses, yet asymmetrical, were not enough to answer Ukraine's growing impunity. And it was finally being understood–the hard way–that more commitment is necessary. Blame the Russian casualty aversion, probably WW2 trauma.
And now offensives ran out of steam and big words came out about nuking Russia preemptively, more sanctions packages that destroy economies in Europe and hurt developing nations, and more “endless” support to Kiev announced by the usual. Is that a winner’s attitude? And then some terrorist attacks that made Russia finally take off at least one glove.
Today it was more of a display of firepower, a warning. Putin didn’t want it to come to this, he wants as much of Ukraine intact, it is vital that it must not become a failed state and be a brewing ground for trouble. All that is needed is sane leadership that can make serious agreements with Russia, including reconstruction, not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for Russia’s. The less he has to recover the better.
(concluded in the following post)
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Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART I (1/2)
After six months of steady Russian advances on Ukraine, in September, Ukraine managed to pull off its expected counter-offensive operation. Its…
After six months of steady Russian advances on Ukraine, in September, Ukraine managed to pull off its expected counter-offensive operation. Its…
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
(concluded from previous post)
CONCLUSION: Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART II (3/3)
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13629
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13630
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13819
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/14229
Russia could go full shock and awe and end this on a whim. That would not work out well in the long game that is being played geopolitically on a global scale. My guess is that Ukraine is facing collapse soon, even if ones take into account just internal parameters such as the economy.
We will have to see how it would fare against a pending Russian offensive once the effects of the mobilization can be felt at the front. How far can Western help extend to keep Ukraine going? But most importantly, how can long-lasting peace return the soonest possible? Is a total military victory the only way for Russia?
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CONCLUSION: Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART II (3/3)
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13629
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13630
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13819
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/14229
Russia could go full shock and awe and end this on a whim. That would not work out well in the long game that is being played geopolitically on a global scale. My guess is that Ukraine is facing collapse soon, even if ones take into account just internal parameters such as the economy.
We will have to see how it would fare against a pending Russian offensive once the effects of the mobilization can be felt at the front. How far can Western help extend to keep Ukraine going? But most importantly, how can long-lasting peace return the soonest possible? Is a total military victory the only way for Russia?
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx
@Slavyangrad / SLG OSINT Unit (Visionaire)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
Telegram
Slavyangrad
Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART I (1/2)
After six months of steady Russian advances on Ukraine, in September, Ukraine managed to pull off its expected counter-offensive operation. Its…
After six months of steady Russian advances on Ukraine, in September, Ukraine managed to pull off its expected counter-offensive operation. Its…
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
Russia Pushes Ukraine Out of World Food Market
Following a meeting between Putin and Erdogan, it became clear that the grain deal would not be extended. The President is personally dissatisfied with the deal, while his aide Ushakov and Foreign Minister Lavrov criticise it. The arguments against it are:
1. The West has not fulfilled its obligations to lift restrictions on Russian grain exports.
2. Kiev and the West have failed to keep promises on ammonia exports.
3. Grain is not going to poor countries, but to the EU
Moreover, the conditions of the deal were linked to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge through the export of explosives from the port of Odessa to Bulgaria to the control post in Istanbul.
As things stand, in mid-November, the Ukrainian ports involved in the deal will close again, and Ukrainian grain will flow exclusively to the EU market via rail and road, where it has been going instead of to the poor countries the US and EU used as cover to push the deal through.
The new proposal is that Russian grain will be carried to actually disadvantaged countries by Russia and Turkey, where the grain will, in Erdogan's words, "make the needy countries happy". Payment looks set to go through Turkey or Qatar, the latter may well start lending to buyers of Russian grain. For Turkey, the deal is a good one - they made money from Ukraine, and now they will make money together with Russia. Pros for Russia:
1. Full harvest exports (under 150 million tonnes of grain, but lots of forage) have begun;
2. The rise of Russia's prestige among African and Middle Eastern countries; and,
3. Opportunities to open new markets afterwards, as well as to capture markets where Ukraine used to be.
Politically, the most important thing is that grain will be supplied to poor countries without any involvement of the US and the EU, or the UN.
In addition, Russia is aiming at Ukraine's place as the main exporter of sunflower oil, which is logical after the new territories (25% of the Ukrainian sunflower area and 22% of its harvest in 2021) have become part of the Russian Federation. But the government plans to allocate 4.8 billion rubles for the development of oilseeds: the money will be distributed among 43 regions, which will increase the production of soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower, and flax by 1.74 million tons.
The forecast for Russia's sunflower harvest this year is 15m tonnes. In Ukraine, 14.9 million tonnes will be harvested in 2021. 3.3 million tonnes from the new territories in the Russian harvest, and this means an output of 18.3 million tonnes of sunflower. All in all, 20 million tonnes is well within reach.
As a result, Russia will become the number one exporter of sunflower oil in the world, displacing Ukraine from this position. The latter will become an oilseed appendage of the EU.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/15
Source: @Ivan_Lizan / https://news.1rj.ru/str/ivan_lizan/1099
@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Picchu, Inna)
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Following a meeting between Putin and Erdogan, it became clear that the grain deal would not be extended. The President is personally dissatisfied with the deal, while his aide Ushakov and Foreign Minister Lavrov criticise it. The arguments against it are:
1. The West has not fulfilled its obligations to lift restrictions on Russian grain exports.
2. Kiev and the West have failed to keep promises on ammonia exports.
3. Grain is not going to poor countries, but to the EU
Moreover, the conditions of the deal were linked to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge through the export of explosives from the port of Odessa to Bulgaria to the control post in Istanbul.
As things stand, in mid-November, the Ukrainian ports involved in the deal will close again, and Ukrainian grain will flow exclusively to the EU market via rail and road, where it has been going instead of to the poor countries the US and EU used as cover to push the deal through.
The new proposal is that Russian grain will be carried to actually disadvantaged countries by Russia and Turkey, where the grain will, in Erdogan's words, "make the needy countries happy". Payment looks set to go through Turkey or Qatar, the latter may well start lending to buyers of Russian grain. For Turkey, the deal is a good one - they made money from Ukraine, and now they will make money together with Russia. Pros for Russia:
1. Full harvest exports (under 150 million tonnes of grain, but lots of forage) have begun;
2. The rise of Russia's prestige among African and Middle Eastern countries; and,
3. Opportunities to open new markets afterwards, as well as to capture markets where Ukraine used to be.
Politically, the most important thing is that grain will be supplied to poor countries without any involvement of the US and the EU, or the UN.
In addition, Russia is aiming at Ukraine's place as the main exporter of sunflower oil, which is logical after the new territories (25% of the Ukrainian sunflower area and 22% of its harvest in 2021) have become part of the Russian Federation. But the government plans to allocate 4.8 billion rubles for the development of oilseeds: the money will be distributed among 43 regions, which will increase the production of soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower, and flax by 1.74 million tons.
The forecast for Russia's sunflower harvest this year is 15m tonnes. In Ukraine, 14.9 million tonnes will be harvested in 2021. 3.3 million tonnes from the new territories in the Russian harvest, and this means an output of 18.3 million tonnes of sunflower. All in all, 20 million tonnes is well within reach.
As a result, Russia will become the number one exporter of sunflower oil in the world, displacing Ukraine from this position. The latter will become an oilseed appendage of the EU.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/15
Source: @Ivan_Lizan / https://news.1rj.ru/str/ivan_lizan/1099
@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Picchu, Inna)
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Russia Pushes Ukraine Out of World Food Market
Forwarded from Slavyangrad (Gleb Bazov)
Belgorod Oblast, Belgorod: Ukrainian strikes against Belgorod resulted in a fire at a 110 kW electrical substation at the "Luch" gas-generation power plant, leading to loss of power in parts of the city. According to Belgorod Governor, Gladkov:
"[Emergency services] are attempting to address with the consequences [of the strikes] as quickly as possible. The estimated time to switch to a reserve source of electricity is approximately 4 hours. The water supply has not been affected, and pumps automatically switched to backup power lines."
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https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx
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"[Emergency services] are attempting to address with the consequences [of the strikes] as quickly as possible. The estimated time to switch to a reserve source of electricity is approximately 4 hours. The water supply has not been affected, and pumps automatically switched to backup power lines."
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community