CONCLUSION: Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART II (2/3)

https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13629
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13630
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13819

We begin with the logical assumption that bullies cannot understand anything but sheer, brute force. Their mental condition is such that their mind is fixed on obtaining what it wants without any regard for consequences, pretext, or context. They are willing to trample upon anything to get their material reward, or just get the fun of humiliating you! Such is the nature of Kiev’s handlers, I don’t blame Zelensky much for this whole mess—he is just a pawn.

So the Russians had to break a nose and teach a lesson to its adversary, now that it had come to this. They knew it was a high-risk operation that would end Ukraine fast had it succeeded. They also knew they weren’t ready for a major war that could exceed the size of a regional conflict. They knew Ukraine standing its ground was always a scenario. They knew NATO’s involvement in Ukraine. What they had in place were contingency plans. And Russians proved they could adapt to the rapidly evolving situation mostly successfully.

Around August it was evident that the lines were not advancing anymore. Ukrainian shelling had intensified, with small gains here and there, positional fighting, and a great struggle for Donbass continuing in Donetsk’s suburbs, one of the most fortified areas on Earth. The defense had stiffened everywhere, and the Ukrainians were preparing to attack. It was a no-brainer for Russia to switch to defensive tactics, where Ukrainian superiority in manpower and equipment would matter less, while preparing for a new stage of the war, with the ante raising.

By September 10 Ukraine got back most of the Kharkov oblast, including Izyum. Russians withdrew orderly but still, it wasn’t a textbook retreat either, there were losses. In another 3 weeks, the Ukrainian forces took Lyman, at a huge cost in lives and equipment. On the Kherson front, they pushed towards Davidy Brod and got minimal gains, and disproportionate loses. The meat and metal grinder worked full time. Those were some of their best, Nazis and mercenaries too. And then in Donbass, the battle for Artemovsk is going to begin soon.

Meanwhile, referenda were held and the breakaway regions voted to join Russia. A partial mobilization began in Russia (first mobilization after 80 years I believe), aiming for 300 thousand troops for the SMO. It is obvious that Russia had to speed up things; everyone was thinking the referenda would take place on November 4, National Unity day. Everyone was getting pissed off with retreating and all responses, yet asymmetrical, were not enough to answer Ukraine's growing impunity. And it was finally being understood–the hard way–that more commitment is necessary. Blame the Russian casualty aversion, probably WW2 trauma.

And now offensives ran out of steam and big words came out about nuking Russia preemptively, more sanctions packages that destroy economies in Europe and hurt developing nations, and more “endless” support to Kiev announced by the usual. Is that a winner’s attitude? And then some terrorist attacks that made Russia finally take off at least one glove.

Today it was more of a display of firepower, a warning. Putin didn’t want it to come to this, he wants as much of Ukraine intact, it is vital that it must not become a failed state and be a brewing ground for trouble. All that is needed is sane leadership that can make serious agreements with Russia, including reconstruction, not just for Ukraine’s sake, but for Russia’s. The less he has to recover the better.

(concluded in the following post)

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@Slavyangrad / SLG OSINT Unit (Visionaire)
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(concluded from previous post)

CONCLUSION: Thoughts on the SMO, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and the events after Crimea (by Visionaire)—PART II (3/3)

https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13629
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13630
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/13819
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Slavyangrad/14229

Russia could go full shock and awe and end this on a whim. That would not work out well in the long game that is being played geopolitically on a global scale. My guess is that Ukraine is facing collapse soon, even if ones take into account just internal parameters such as the economy.

We will have to see how it would fare against a pending Russian offensive once the effects of the mobilization can be felt at the front. How far can Western help extend to keep Ukraine going? But most importantly, how can long-lasting peace return the soonest possible? Is a total military victory the only way for Russia?

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https://news.1rj.ru/str/+2pzG51JUhlYxZmQx

@Slavyangrad / SLG OSINT Unit (Visionaire)
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Russia Pushes Ukraine Out of World Food Market

Following a meeting between Putin and Erdogan, it became clear that the grain deal would not be extended. The President is personally dissatisfied with the deal, while his aide Ushakov and Foreign Minister Lavrov criticise it. The arguments against it are:

1. The West has not fulfilled its obligations to lift restrictions on Russian grain exports.
2. Kiev and the West have failed to keep promises on ammonia exports.
3. Grain is not going to poor countries, but to the EU

Moreover, the conditions of the deal were linked to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge through the export of explosives from the port of Odessa to Bulgaria to the control post in Istanbul.

As things stand, in mid-November, the Ukrainian ports involved in the deal will close again, and Ukrainian grain will flow exclusively to the EU market via rail and road, where it has been going instead of to the poor countries the US and EU used as cover to push the deal through.

The new proposal is that Russian grain will be carried to actually disadvantaged countries by Russia and Turkey, where the grain will, in Erdogan's words, "make the needy countries happy". Payment looks set to go through Turkey or Qatar, the latter may well start lending to buyers of Russian grain. For Turkey, the deal is a good one - they made money from Ukraine, and now they will make money together with Russia. Pros for Russia:

1. Full harvest exports (under 150 million tonnes of grain, but lots of forage) have begun;
2. The rise of Russia's prestige among African and Middle Eastern countries; and,
3. Opportunities to open new markets afterwards, as well as to capture markets where Ukraine used to be.

Politically, the most important thing is that grain will be supplied to poor countries without any involvement of the US and the EU, or the UN.

In addition, Russia is aiming at Ukraine's place as the main exporter of sunflower oil, which is logical after the new territories (25% of the Ukrainian sunflower area and 22% of its harvest in 2021) have become part of the Russian Federation. But the government plans to allocate 4.8 billion rubles for the development of oilseeds: the money will be distributed among 43 regions, which will increase the production of soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower, and flax by 1.74 million tons.

The forecast for Russia's sunflower harvest this year is 15m tonnes. In Ukraine, 14.9 million tonnes will be harvested in 2021. 3.3 million tonnes from the new territories in the Russian harvest, and this means an output of 18.3 million tonnes of sunflower. All in all, 20 million tonnes is well within reach.

As a result, Russia will become the number one exporter of sunflower oil in the world, displacing Ukraine from this position. The latter will become an oilseed appendage of the EU.

https://news.1rj.ru/str/SLGmaps/15

Source: @Ivan_Lizan / https://news.1rj.ru/str/ivan_lizan/1099

@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Picchu, Inna)
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🇬🇧'I fought for Ukraine, I picked the side and we lost'.

Shaun Pinner is a mercenary from the UK. He was fighting for Kiev regime with Donbass people. You can watch his evidence in our video.

But there are also international soldiers of the Donbass militia volunteered to fight Ukrainian army from Colombia, the USA, and all over the world.

🌊 Join Military Wave

"12 Kalibrs flew, 18 of them were shot down" (c). That's what I was talking about.

ukr_leaks_eng

Elon Musk added to Ukraine's Myrotvorets kill list (which includes 327 children!).

I've been speaking and writing about this list for years, after being placed on it in 2019, but now that Musk is on it, after Roger Waters and other famous people, I think the "peacemaker" list might face being itself killed...

On October 9th, a neo-nazi commander, Zhorin, of the notorious battalion Azov, posted a disastrous 6 seconds video of dead bodies in civilian clothes, with their hands tied behind their backs, being thrown into the mass grave. The initial post containing the video had the following noscript: "The occupied Kupiansk. Kharkiv region. The civil population. There’ll be a reckoning». After the video was exposed by the Telegram channel Zapisky Veterana drawing a broad public attention  to the video, Zhorin added to the initial post that the «video is from the mobile phone of an occupier». The meta data of the video shows that the video was filmed almost one hour before it was posted on Telegram by Zhorin.

Furthermore, Kupiansk was left by the Russian forces in the middle of September, but the clothes on the dead civilians and the surroundings (colours of autumn) indicate that the video is absolutely recent.

The Ukrainian telegram channels, Legitimny and Resident, that are known for leaking information from the Ukrainian government, wrote that the Office of the Ukrainian president was dissatisfied with the amateur information activities of the AZOV commander.

He was likely inspired by the recent interview with Moseychuk and Provorznyuk, openly promoting the idea that those who are pro-Russian should not get to court and prison; they are to be labelled "collaborators" and "buried" somewhere instead.

A couple of days ago, the Daily Mail published an article revealing that Ukrainians were torturing and slaughtering Russians who had to stay in the areas that had to be without trial or investigation. "We are hunting them down and shooting them like pigs," says a Ukrainian soldier. The publication itself, ennoscriptd "Ukrainians take revenge", looks like an attempt to justify these crimes and to open the Overton window wider.

However, such revelations published in the Western media just prove the fact that Bucha was orchestrated by the Ukrainians. And the video published by Zhorin is an official proclamation of the genocide of the ethnic Russian and pro-Russian population on the territories that recently fell into Ukrainian hands.

Los medios occidentales sobre Ucrania antes del 24 de febrero👆🏻

Los medios occidentales después: ¡Slava Ukraini!🇺🇦