American sneering at the Russian Air Force once again comes around to bite us as their extensive aerial capabilities have allowed them to dominate the battlefield.

I think this was largely based on the Russians being unwilling to do NATO-style deep air raids into the teeth of "double-digit" SAMs and instead using missiles for deep strikes while using their air force for closer work? God forbid the Russians not want to lose hundreds of aircraft and pilots against a layered Soviet-style air defense system, apparently this is cowardly and real air forces think the air campaign against Vietnam was a success to be emulated.

Or perhaps this was the Russians not providing close air support by setting up leisurely orbits around the battlefield in the optimum engagement envelope of every surface to air system in existence and instead minimizing their exposure with standoff weapons and low-altitude tactics? I suspect the USAF would quickly learn to operate similarly if faced with an enemy with more formidable AA systems than machine guns.

Pure projection at work here.

There is massive and absolutely incontrovertible evidence of systematic Ukrainian violations of the Geneva Conventions re: treatment of Russian POWs, to include public humiliation, torture, and murder.  These violations appear to be sanctioned at the highest levels.  Last I checked they do not provide the Red Cross access to their prisoners.

Noteworthy that the image in the article appears to be one of Ukrainian POWs held by Russia, who have generally been treated reasonably well and are monitored by the ICRC.

I never want to hear anyone talking smack online about Russian "cope cages" ever again.

> be the Ukrainian command in Kherson
> do a major river crossing operation
> push regular infantry into the beachhead
> brag about it in the Western media
> claim you're not going anywhere
> talk big about marching on Crimea
> get driven into the Dniper days later

That's another front of the Great Counteroffensive sewn up. The only question I have is whether this was the "real" Dniper operation or whether the AFU has something else in store in that area. Regulars from the 126th TD BDE were committed and a significant number of Ukrainian transport boats seem to have been destroyed, indicating - along with the aforementioned media campaign once they started feeling (inappropriately) confident - that this was planned as far more than a special forces raid.

Not going to be posting much today but I thought that deserved a comment. Later!

I'm continually amazed that people continue to take Western and pro-Ukrainian analysts and commentators seriously. They've been systematically, catastrophically wrong about every single thing that has occurred during this war. They never correct themselves and they show zero capacity for self-reflection. Many openly function as propagandists and apologists for the worst excesses of the Ukrainian regime. Some engage in reprehensible behavior online like doxxing. Are people really that desperate to be lied to?

An excellent insight from a friend - as the prospects for the Ukrainian cause look bleaker and bleaker, its supporters are shifting the public line from "Russia is unable to win" to "Russia cannot be allowed to win."

By the way, Lukashenko agrees with me on the kill ratio at the front. I earlier pointed out it's somewhere between seven and thirteen to one.

He also agrees with me that the Russians have an enormous force waiting in reserve which has not been committed, of the same general size as I pointed out some time ago.

Take it from someone who owns an intelligence agency?

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia destroys Western missile depots in Ukrainian rear — Financial Times

Russia's intensified attacks on targets deep in Ukraine are aimed at depriving Kyiv of the ability to launch long-range Western missiles such as Britain's Storm Shadow and France's Scalp.
▪️ This week, Russian troops launched dozens of rockets far into western Ukraine, targeting airbases, runways and warehouses.

I note there have been basically no Storm Shadow attacks since the Russian strike on Khmelnitsky two weeks ago.

Vibe:

Night, folks!

The Kherson push in June 2022 that failed with enormous casualties, and which Ukrainian propagandists pretend was successful because the Russians decided to withdraw from the right bank five months later to bleed out the AFU on more convenient lines?

A plan which has worked perfectly, by the way.

Good night!

Do I have anything to comment on today? No.

Have a waifu for the evening. I'll probably get back on Twitter sometime in the near future and convert the stuff above into juicy threads.

The Government of Ukraine has allocated 266 hectares for a new cemetery in the Kiev region.

There are no losses.

For comparison, this is almost five times the size of the Federal War Memorial Cemetery in Mytishchi and slightly larger than the Arlington National Cemetery near Washington.

#source
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"Victory has many fathers, but defeat is an orphan."

Begs the question of who exactly approved this offensive plan utilizing a NATO-provided army the size of any state military in Europe. Was NATO even briefed, ahead of time or even as it was unfolding?

Also given that this offensive has basically been a repeat of the Somme, should we expect the next effort to resemble the Chemin des Dames instead?

The willingness of the Ukrainians to get what are presumably extensively-trained commandos killed in obvious suicide missions never ceases to amaze me. What were they hoping to accomplish in this naval raid? A day of good headlines in the Western media from Ukrainian commandos landing in Crimea and terrorizing the locals for a few hours before inevitably being wiped out? I've seen Hamas suicide operations that were better thought-out than this.

That's enough commentary for the day - have a waifu.