Crypto will be more correlated to macro than ever before going forward. Think this is obvious now.
The crypto four year cycle framework is dead and will do a lot of damage to crypto traders who fail to adapt.
Greater fool theory investing in alts peaked last cycle, and this time around we had a few more retail gamblers PVP against previous cycle survivors.
Fully believe good fundamental investors will do well in crypto over the next few years. Of course fundamentals + strong narrative is the cocktail for bigger outperformance.
There are clear categories in crypto with PMF (DeFi, stablecoins, RWAs) that have mature products earning real revenues that will grow massively over the next five years.
The days of egregiously overvalued useless infra are over. Accept that and adjust.
Markets trend towards being more efficient and less irrational over time. Crypto is no different.
You have the time now to do your research and identify protocols and apps that fit the bill.
The crypto four year cycle framework is dead and will do a lot of damage to crypto traders who fail to adapt.
Greater fool theory investing in alts peaked last cycle, and this time around we had a few more retail gamblers PVP against previous cycle survivors.
Fully believe good fundamental investors will do well in crypto over the next few years. Of course fundamentals + strong narrative is the cocktail for bigger outperformance.
There are clear categories in crypto with PMF (DeFi, stablecoins, RWAs) that have mature products earning real revenues that will grow massively over the next five years.
The days of egregiously overvalued useless infra are over. Accept that and adjust.
Markets trend towards being more efficient and less irrational over time. Crypto is no different.
You have the time now to do your research and identify protocols and apps that fit the bill.
🔥44👍14❤10🤡3😁2🤪2👏1👌1
Here's how I am seeing things right now:
Crypto is kind of in no man's land. Things are down a lot, but there aren't too many clear bullish catalysts on the horizon that I'm aware of. Many underwater holders are still left to sell bounces.
We are lacking narratives and projects that people actually believe in (tokens that people actually want to buy and hold). We have a handful of credible projects where you could make a good argument that the token has big growth potential outside of pure speculation. This is a sad state of affairs considering the funding across the years.
If you remove BTC and ETH, crypto's market cap without those two assets hasn't grown at all in the last four years, and trading volumes also haven't grown. OTHERS/BTC is at the same level it was in June 2017, which is crazy, and shows badly these assets have done on a long time horizon.
The business cycle hasn't peaked, which offers hope that there could be a crypto recovery at some point this year. At worst, I'm pretty sure there will still be speculative periods this year, which will more likely favour traders.
I am certainly no macro expert, but have been an observer for a few years now, and it seems there is split opinion on whether we are simply experiencing a growth scare due to the uncertain environment that Trump has created with his policy, or we are seeing a much bigger growth slowdown which will have more implications and push the business cycle deeper into 2026. US Corporate profit margins are at all-time highs still, which is kind of suggestive of a growth scare to me. Tariffs could still bring down this number in 2025 though. It's impossible to predict unpredictable tariff policy right now.
It's unlikely Bitcoin can shake off the weakness in stocks we are seeing and go up in isolation (like gold). Theoretically it will do well in this type of uncertain environment one day, but many of the investors that own BTC still treat it as a risk off asset in the short term. It does tend to eventually follow positive multi-month gold moves though, so that is worth watching for.
Right now the median FOMC projection anticipates two rate cuts in 2025. Obviously the dot plot can change and does change with each meeting based on the economic data. We get a new update today. The CME FedWatch Tool currently leans toward three cuts in 2025. Market expectations of three cuts are likely to be driven by recent economic concerns, such as slowing GDP growth or fears of trade disruptions from Trump’s tariff policies, which might pressure the Fed to ease more aggressively.
Some people are still screaming about QE and much lower rates this year, which would mean crypto would go a fair bit lower first, as it would happen as the result of something bad happening in the economy.
Total global liquidity hasn't meaningfully expanded since 2022. Most countries remain heavily in debt and need the liquidity injections to grow and not be swallowed up by their interest payments. This is the strongest bull case for BTC in 2025/26 that I can put forward right now.
Mid cycle pull back would be the bullish scenario and be in line with prior cycles. However, as I've said before that means little for most alts that have already topped eternally, as it seems more abundantly true than ever that they have no value.
There is only so many times people are willing to buy useless alts because they think they can sell them to someone else in the future. We have exhausted the pool of retail investors willing to buy these tokens. I really do feel like that era of crypto is mostly over. We have an inflows problem until crypto (not BTC) proves it can deliver on its promises.
Fast money games will always be here, but they will simply continue to get faster and faster, which means most people playing those games will not make any money.
I still believe in crypto on a long time horizon. We have built the rails, we just need the rails to become useful to people at scale. We will get there.
Crypto is kind of in no man's land. Things are down a lot, but there aren't too many clear bullish catalysts on the horizon that I'm aware of. Many underwater holders are still left to sell bounces.
We are lacking narratives and projects that people actually believe in (tokens that people actually want to buy and hold). We have a handful of credible projects where you could make a good argument that the token has big growth potential outside of pure speculation. This is a sad state of affairs considering the funding across the years.
If you remove BTC and ETH, crypto's market cap without those two assets hasn't grown at all in the last four years, and trading volumes also haven't grown. OTHERS/BTC is at the same level it was in June 2017, which is crazy, and shows badly these assets have done on a long time horizon.
The business cycle hasn't peaked, which offers hope that there could be a crypto recovery at some point this year. At worst, I'm pretty sure there will still be speculative periods this year, which will more likely favour traders.
I am certainly no macro expert, but have been an observer for a few years now, and it seems there is split opinion on whether we are simply experiencing a growth scare due to the uncertain environment that Trump has created with his policy, or we are seeing a much bigger growth slowdown which will have more implications and push the business cycle deeper into 2026. US Corporate profit margins are at all-time highs still, which is kind of suggestive of a growth scare to me. Tariffs could still bring down this number in 2025 though. It's impossible to predict unpredictable tariff policy right now.
It's unlikely Bitcoin can shake off the weakness in stocks we are seeing and go up in isolation (like gold). Theoretically it will do well in this type of uncertain environment one day, but many of the investors that own BTC still treat it as a risk off asset in the short term. It does tend to eventually follow positive multi-month gold moves though, so that is worth watching for.
Right now the median FOMC projection anticipates two rate cuts in 2025. Obviously the dot plot can change and does change with each meeting based on the economic data. We get a new update today. The CME FedWatch Tool currently leans toward three cuts in 2025. Market expectations of three cuts are likely to be driven by recent economic concerns, such as slowing GDP growth or fears of trade disruptions from Trump’s tariff policies, which might pressure the Fed to ease more aggressively.
Some people are still screaming about QE and much lower rates this year, which would mean crypto would go a fair bit lower first, as it would happen as the result of something bad happening in the economy.
Total global liquidity hasn't meaningfully expanded since 2022. Most countries remain heavily in debt and need the liquidity injections to grow and not be swallowed up by their interest payments. This is the strongest bull case for BTC in 2025/26 that I can put forward right now.
Mid cycle pull back would be the bullish scenario and be in line with prior cycles. However, as I've said before that means little for most alts that have already topped eternally, as it seems more abundantly true than ever that they have no value.
There is only so many times people are willing to buy useless alts because they think they can sell them to someone else in the future. We have exhausted the pool of retail investors willing to buy these tokens. I really do feel like that era of crypto is mostly over. We have an inflows problem until crypto (not BTC) proves it can deliver on its promises.
Fast money games will always be here, but they will simply continue to get faster and faster, which means most people playing those games will not make any money.
I still believe in crypto on a long time horizon. We have built the rails, we just need the rails to become useful to people at scale. We will get there.
👍59❤17😢8🔥4🤷♂1💯1
Alpha please Monday Market Update
The market continues to chop, and not much has happened price-wise for BTC over the past week. After the ~30% (intra-day) correction, BTC is still holding strong support around the $80k zone. This price action closely follows the broader trend in US equity markets (S&P, Nasdaq), which are also correcting and appear to have found some support at current levels. Let’s see if that holds.
On the weekly timeframe, we note that BTC ended the week in the green with a slight rebound from the range low. From here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some relief, with mean-reverting behavior in the market toward the mid-to-high end of the range before further consolidation.
Now, what would be the outcome of this consolidation? Time will tell. But personally, I still lean toward this being a mid-cycle consolidation rather than the end of the cycle. As I’ve said many times, price action remains highly macro-dependent (even more so now). While I continue to favor a scenario of short-term uncertainty in growth due to the “Trump effect,” it’s also important to consider the risk of a deeper slowdown that could significantly delay the cycle. Both views remain very much on the table.
April 2nd is the date where we should see some resolution due to Tariffs coming into effect. Every day the situation changes in respect to the exact nature of these tariffs. The market has been pricing in the worst case scenario, so if Trump walks back some of his talk then markets should receive that very well. Longs probably slightly favoured here.
In any case, alts continue to be a difficult market to navigate. Markets are getting more mature, and now future revenue expectations are becoming a more important factor in the pricing of alts compared to goodwill/narrative (which was the main driver of past alt seasons). This doesn’t mean they won’t perform well, but performance will remain highly idiosyncratic. Choose your long-term horses wisely. We have been expecting a mean reversion bounce for a while, and we look to be getting that currently.
On the flip side, this also means that we might be at the beginning of a structural shift for alts, with new tokenomics models emerging (further supported by the pro-crypto policies of Trump). Creative destruction is in full force, but the long-term outlook remains positive as the market evolves.
Some other things to note:
-Monthly timeframe charts still suggest we are in a long-term uptrend, and this bull market has room to grow.
-TradFi interest in crypto continues to rise and one thing I notice is that they are really getting into this BTC as a “digital gold” thesis. This is something positive to see, especially given the recent price action of gold which continues to be in a strong secular bull market. DAS showed how seriously institutions are taking stable coins, our challenge is to work out how to profit from this.
-Looking at past BTC bull market drawdowns, the 30% correction we have right now is nothing out of the ordinary and still really healthy and well within expectations.
TL;DR:
For now, we remain in a range environment where sentiment (and flows) can shift in a single day. If you’re trading, I’d lean toward a more conservative money management approach. I expect a lot of traders still to respect the trend.
I always loved this trading quote: “Your job as a trader is simply to survive long enough so that luck inevitably finds you.” It’s always a good idea to be more conservative when the odds are unclear and risk/reward on directional trades is much less favorable.
However, the longer-term setup remains bullish. But to gain more confidence and increase risk appetite, I’d look for a clear breakout from this consolidation on the weekly timeframe, followed by improvement in fundamentals (DEX trading volume, stablecoin inflows, onchain borrowing rates increasing etc.) and more clarity on the macro outlook.
The market continues to chop, and not much has happened price-wise for BTC over the past week. After the ~30% (intra-day) correction, BTC is still holding strong support around the $80k zone. This price action closely follows the broader trend in US equity markets (S&P, Nasdaq), which are also correcting and appear to have found some support at current levels. Let’s see if that holds.
On the weekly timeframe, we note that BTC ended the week in the green with a slight rebound from the range low. From here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some relief, with mean-reverting behavior in the market toward the mid-to-high end of the range before further consolidation.
Now, what would be the outcome of this consolidation? Time will tell. But personally, I still lean toward this being a mid-cycle consolidation rather than the end of the cycle. As I’ve said many times, price action remains highly macro-dependent (even more so now). While I continue to favor a scenario of short-term uncertainty in growth due to the “Trump effect,” it’s also important to consider the risk of a deeper slowdown that could significantly delay the cycle. Both views remain very much on the table.
April 2nd is the date where we should see some resolution due to Tariffs coming into effect. Every day the situation changes in respect to the exact nature of these tariffs. The market has been pricing in the worst case scenario, so if Trump walks back some of his talk then markets should receive that very well. Longs probably slightly favoured here.
In any case, alts continue to be a difficult market to navigate. Markets are getting more mature, and now future revenue expectations are becoming a more important factor in the pricing of alts compared to goodwill/narrative (which was the main driver of past alt seasons). This doesn’t mean they won’t perform well, but performance will remain highly idiosyncratic. Choose your long-term horses wisely. We have been expecting a mean reversion bounce for a while, and we look to be getting that currently.
On the flip side, this also means that we might be at the beginning of a structural shift for alts, with new tokenomics models emerging (further supported by the pro-crypto policies of Trump). Creative destruction is in full force, but the long-term outlook remains positive as the market evolves.
Some other things to note:
-Monthly timeframe charts still suggest we are in a long-term uptrend, and this bull market has room to grow.
-TradFi interest in crypto continues to rise and one thing I notice is that they are really getting into this BTC as a “digital gold” thesis. This is something positive to see, especially given the recent price action of gold which continues to be in a strong secular bull market. DAS showed how seriously institutions are taking stable coins, our challenge is to work out how to profit from this.
-Looking at past BTC bull market drawdowns, the 30% correction we have right now is nothing out of the ordinary and still really healthy and well within expectations.
TL;DR:
For now, we remain in a range environment where sentiment (and flows) can shift in a single day. If you’re trading, I’d lean toward a more conservative money management approach. I expect a lot of traders still to respect the trend.
I always loved this trading quote: “Your job as a trader is simply to survive long enough so that luck inevitably finds you.” It’s always a good idea to be more conservative when the odds are unclear and risk/reward on directional trades is much less favorable.
However, the longer-term setup remains bullish. But to gain more confidence and increase risk appetite, I’d look for a clear breakout from this consolidation on the weekly timeframe, followed by improvement in fundamentals (DEX trading volume, stablecoin inflows, onchain borrowing rates increasing etc.) and more clarity on the macro outlook.
❤32👍17🔥5
Defi & Farming opportunities
It's been a long time since I last posted about DeFi and farming opportunities because, frankly, it’s been a long time since we’ve had many cool and asymmetric opportunities to share. These tend to emerge earlier in the cycle when no one is paying attention rather than later + the airdrop meta is also evolving rapidly.
That said, I still think there are some interesting plays out there. Here are three I found worth checking out:
Wayfinder
Wayfinder is one of the biggest moves in the DeFAI meta so far. It is literally an entire ecosystem where AIs act on-chain, generate income, vote, train themselves, and abstract complexities of different tasks, especially in DeFi.
Wayfinder acts as a true bridge between AI and Web3, enabling agents (Shells) to connect with all blockchains and dApps. Users can even build their own AI using text, images, audio, and more. And this is just the beginning—there’s a lot more coming, with $PROMPT expected to drop soon.
There are a lot of different missions, like depositing some funds into the wallet, and community tasks like connecting to X, etc., that you can work through. Low effort and cost, but it might lead to something interesting down the line.
Here is a ref link if you want to try it out:
https://app.wayfinder.ai/referral/ALPY2LA
DeFiApp
DeFiApp is a modular DeFi SuperApp built to make decentralized finance simple for everyone. Key features include seamless wallet creation and management, cross-chain compatibility, direct on/off ramping to fiat, and more. Super easy and intuitive to use and a good UI. Defo worth trying out imo.
They are also running an XP program that only takes seconds to register.
Here is the link to it:
https://app.defi.app/join/Kwm1eK
Kyros
Kyros is a Solana-native liquid restaking protocol built on top of Jito (Re)staking. This is similar to what EtherFi was for Ethereum and EigenLayer, except that it is on Solana, built on top of the Jito tech stack, and already has real use cases and real yield.
Strategy:
-Mint kySOL from JitoSOL via the Kyros app. With kySOL, you are exposed to all the benefits of JitoSOL (SOL price exposure + staking + MEV rewards) plus additional yield from staking (around 2%). Doing this, you also accumulate Kyros points.
-If you want exposure to JTO instead, you can mint kyJTO to earn real yield on JTO along with price exposure.
-To boost your points, you can also use kySOL & kyJTO across Solana DeFi. This allows you to earn boosted yield (and points).
Easy peasy. Still early days and under the radar.
Opt in to Kyros here:
https://boost.kyros.fi/?ref=9rktfp
It's been a long time since I last posted about DeFi and farming opportunities because, frankly, it’s been a long time since we’ve had many cool and asymmetric opportunities to share. These tend to emerge earlier in the cycle when no one is paying attention rather than later + the airdrop meta is also evolving rapidly.
That said, I still think there are some interesting plays out there. Here are three I found worth checking out:
Wayfinder
Wayfinder is one of the biggest moves in the DeFAI meta so far. It is literally an entire ecosystem where AIs act on-chain, generate income, vote, train themselves, and abstract complexities of different tasks, especially in DeFi.
Wayfinder acts as a true bridge between AI and Web3, enabling agents (Shells) to connect with all blockchains and dApps. Users can even build their own AI using text, images, audio, and more. And this is just the beginning—there’s a lot more coming, with $PROMPT expected to drop soon.
There are a lot of different missions, like depositing some funds into the wallet, and community tasks like connecting to X, etc., that you can work through. Low effort and cost, but it might lead to something interesting down the line.
Here is a ref link if you want to try it out:
https://app.wayfinder.ai/referral/ALPY2LA
DeFiApp
DeFiApp is a modular DeFi SuperApp built to make decentralized finance simple for everyone. Key features include seamless wallet creation and management, cross-chain compatibility, direct on/off ramping to fiat, and more. Super easy and intuitive to use and a good UI. Defo worth trying out imo.
They are also running an XP program that only takes seconds to register.
Here is the link to it:
https://app.defi.app/join/Kwm1eK
Kyros
Kyros is a Solana-native liquid restaking protocol built on top of Jito (Re)staking. This is similar to what EtherFi was for Ethereum and EigenLayer, except that it is on Solana, built on top of the Jito tech stack, and already has real use cases and real yield.
Strategy:
-Mint kySOL from JitoSOL via the Kyros app. With kySOL, you are exposed to all the benefits of JitoSOL (SOL price exposure + staking + MEV rewards) plus additional yield from staking (around 2%). Doing this, you also accumulate Kyros points.
-If you want exposure to JTO instead, you can mint kyJTO to earn real yield on JTO along with price exposure.
-To boost your points, you can also use kySOL & kyJTO across Solana DeFi. This allows you to earn boosted yield (and points).
Easy peasy. Still early days and under the radar.
Opt in to Kyros here:
https://boost.kyros.fi/?ref=9rktfp
app.wayfinder.ai
Wayfinder | Sign Up
Adaptable Onchain AI Agents
❤14👍6😁5🔥3👎2🤣2
Tuesday Market Update
Global risk assets faced broad selling pressure as renewed trade uncertainty, slowing growth signals, and sticky inflation spooked markets. As of writing, the Mag-7 group is down 12% YTD.
Indeed, tariffs and geopolitical news were once again at the center of attention this week, with headlines causing more havoc, such as: 1) Trump threatens secondary tariffs on Russian oil 2) No path to peace in Ukraine; Russia gains ground 3) Reciprocal tariffs to hit all countries
In addition to this, inflation readings also came in a bit hotter than expected (MoM core PCE at 0.4% v/s 0.3% last month; YoY core PCE at 2.8% vs. the Fed’s 2% target).
The crypto market mirrored the downturn, with BTC and most alts giving up part of their recent gains as risk appetite waned. However, setup hasn’t changed and we still remain in a range-bound environment for Bitcoin. As long as the market stays like this, I'd lean toward a more conservative money management approach for directional bets (which means being cautious with alts).
On the macro side, the main event to watch this week is the so-called "Liberation Day," when Trump is expected to unveil his tariff plans. This could be a strong driver of short-term volatility in the coming days. However, a resolution on tariffs (whether good or bad) will likely bring more clarity to the market and provide a clearer direction going forward.
Another thing to note: April is tax season in the US, which could drain liquidity from the markets. Crypto is particularly exposed, as investors tend to sell their riskier assets to cover tax obligations. Traders should be prepared for heightened volatility, while long-term investors can sit back—this is business as usual.
Now, looking at the bigger picture, the macro landscape remains heavily tied to the rollover of US debt. Government officials, including Trump himself, have admitted that they would tolerate a slower economy if it helps push bond yields lower. While this may seem surprising coming from someone known for being pro-growth, the reality is that there isn't much choice. The US government must refinance nearly $10 trillion of debt this year alone, with part of it rolling over at significantly higher rates. This will drive up interest payments, which are already consuming a fifth of government spending annually.
Slower economic growth would allow the US Treasury to sell securities at lower rates and potentially extend the duration of federal debt as investors seek safe assets. Crypto remains relatively fragile in this scenario, especially if slower growth is accompanied by weak liquidity in financial markets. But for now, this is still a longer-term concern, and we’ll need to adapt as things evolve.
That said, I also think that at some point, BTC will lose its correlation to US equities and more closely follow that of gold and should do well in uncertain times as it gets bought by investors who see its role as a hedge against debasement. Especially relevent when we see that BTC has lagged Gold price action and M2 global money supply in the past. I won't be surprise if we see a sort of relief rally based on that after the macro picture gets a bit clearer.
Global risk assets faced broad selling pressure as renewed trade uncertainty, slowing growth signals, and sticky inflation spooked markets. As of writing, the Mag-7 group is down 12% YTD.
Indeed, tariffs and geopolitical news were once again at the center of attention this week, with headlines causing more havoc, such as: 1) Trump threatens secondary tariffs on Russian oil 2) No path to peace in Ukraine; Russia gains ground 3) Reciprocal tariffs to hit all countries
In addition to this, inflation readings also came in a bit hotter than expected (MoM core PCE at 0.4% v/s 0.3% last month; YoY core PCE at 2.8% vs. the Fed’s 2% target).
The crypto market mirrored the downturn, with BTC and most alts giving up part of their recent gains as risk appetite waned. However, setup hasn’t changed and we still remain in a range-bound environment for Bitcoin. As long as the market stays like this, I'd lean toward a more conservative money management approach for directional bets (which means being cautious with alts).
On the macro side, the main event to watch this week is the so-called "Liberation Day," when Trump is expected to unveil his tariff plans. This could be a strong driver of short-term volatility in the coming days. However, a resolution on tariffs (whether good or bad) will likely bring more clarity to the market and provide a clearer direction going forward.
Another thing to note: April is tax season in the US, which could drain liquidity from the markets. Crypto is particularly exposed, as investors tend to sell their riskier assets to cover tax obligations. Traders should be prepared for heightened volatility, while long-term investors can sit back—this is business as usual.
Now, looking at the bigger picture, the macro landscape remains heavily tied to the rollover of US debt. Government officials, including Trump himself, have admitted that they would tolerate a slower economy if it helps push bond yields lower. While this may seem surprising coming from someone known for being pro-growth, the reality is that there isn't much choice. The US government must refinance nearly $10 trillion of debt this year alone, with part of it rolling over at significantly higher rates. This will drive up interest payments, which are already consuming a fifth of government spending annually.
Slower economic growth would allow the US Treasury to sell securities at lower rates and potentially extend the duration of federal debt as investors seek safe assets. Crypto remains relatively fragile in this scenario, especially if slower growth is accompanied by weak liquidity in financial markets. But for now, this is still a longer-term concern, and we’ll need to adapt as things evolve.
That said, I also think that at some point, BTC will lose its correlation to US equities and more closely follow that of gold and should do well in uncertain times as it gets bought by investors who see its role as a hedge against debasement. Especially relevent when we see that BTC has lagged Gold price action and M2 global money supply in the past. I won't be surprise if we see a sort of relief rally based on that after the macro picture gets a bit clearer.
❤37👍8💯6👏2
Kamino Meta-Swap just dropped. If you do a lot of trading on Solana then you are going to want to try this. I think it is now the best place to swap any token on Solana.
TLDR: It's a mega-aggregator. Searches every integrated venue: DEXs & Pyth's Express Relay (RFQ) for the best price. Then it sorts them with Active Simulations.
Kamino's Active Simulation Mode actually runs real-time simulations of your swap before you commit. It quotes you the price you'll actually get. Honest, realistic pricing, which improves UX for users.
Zero fees. Pyth Express Relay protects from harmful MEV.
Highly recommend giving it a try. Maybe they retroactively give KMNO points to users in the future as well.
https://swap.kamino.finance/?ref=aylo
I've always like Kamino's product and UX. Nice to see them pushing beyond lending. They have real potential as an all in one DeFi super app.
Read more about it here as well: https://gov.kamino.finance/t/introducing-kamino-meta-swap/535
TLDR: It's a mega-aggregator. Searches every integrated venue: DEXs & Pyth's Express Relay (RFQ) for the best price. Then it sorts them with Active Simulations.
Kamino's Active Simulation Mode actually runs real-time simulations of your swap before you commit. It quotes you the price you'll actually get. Honest, realistic pricing, which improves UX for users.
Zero fees. Pyth Express Relay protects from harmful MEV.
Highly recommend giving it a try. Maybe they retroactively give KMNO points to users in the future as well.
https://swap.kamino.finance/?ref=aylo
I've always like Kamino's product and UX. Nice to see them pushing beyond lending. They have real potential as an all in one DeFi super app.
Read more about it here as well: https://gov.kamino.finance/t/introducing-kamino-meta-swap/535
🔥16🍌7👎2👏1🤣1
So-called Liberation Days and Trump’s tariff policies sparked a global sell-off in financial markets: -25% for the Nasdaq, -21% for the S&P 500, and the VIX reached levels rarely seen. Other major markets (like China) also crashed hard. While BTC was holding relatively well in the beginning, sentiment shifted over the weekend, and it ended up selling off as well.
From here, it’s a really complex macro world to navigate, and it’s nearly impossible for now to understand the second-order effects of those tariffs. The worrying thing is that US long bonds are selling off alongside an equity crash.
It seems to me that the US China tariffs stand off will go on a while longer. I don’t really see either side capitulating in the short term. Of course this is just an opinion, but I find it unlikely Trump backs down, and China can withstand a lot of pain + Xi is also a leader with a big ego.
I do think the world we are entering is good for Bitcoin in the long run:
If you believe tariffs have stagflationary effects then BTC goes higher.
If you believe tariffs and current government policy will hurt the hegemony of the US dollar then BTC goes higher.
If you believe the Fed has to step in eventually then BTC is going higher.
All roads lead to BTC going higher eventually (in my very humble opinion).
I think Bitcoin was created for this moment in time. Loss of confidence in governments, global economic contraction, which in turn leads to more currency debasement and increasing likelihood of the debt spiral playing out.
All assets get dragged down when we have rare global market volatility like this. You will not time a bottom. Short term asset prices are completely unpredictable when Trump can stay retarded for longer than most can stay solvent.
DCAing below the cost to mine a Bitcoin (~$85k right now) is a simple strategy. I think this pays off 12 months from now.
Focus on what will be attractive in the environment we find ourselves in once we emerge from the rubble.
What's ahead for this week:
Leaving these longer term thoughts aside, this week we will have:
-US CPI (Thursday): Market expects 2.6% YoY (down from 2.8%); surprise to the upside is likely (even Powell warned about the front-loading of tariffs) and could worsen the sell-off.
-University of Michigan inflation expectations (Friday) will also be closely watched.
Light calendar otherwise but retaliatory tariffs announcement maintain high levels of uncertainty. We could expect Powell to talk if the situation does not improve and this will be important to monitor. The fake headline yesterday did show that the market is willing to rally on any positive headline, so I do feel like we are set up for a short term counter move if we get any positive news.
From here, it’s a really complex macro world to navigate, and it’s nearly impossible for now to understand the second-order effects of those tariffs. The worrying thing is that US long bonds are selling off alongside an equity crash.
It seems to me that the US China tariffs stand off will go on a while longer. I don’t really see either side capitulating in the short term. Of course this is just an opinion, but I find it unlikely Trump backs down, and China can withstand a lot of pain + Xi is also a leader with a big ego.
I do think the world we are entering is good for Bitcoin in the long run:
If you believe tariffs have stagflationary effects then BTC goes higher.
If you believe tariffs and current government policy will hurt the hegemony of the US dollar then BTC goes higher.
If you believe the Fed has to step in eventually then BTC is going higher.
All roads lead to BTC going higher eventually (in my very humble opinion).
I think Bitcoin was created for this moment in time. Loss of confidence in governments, global economic contraction, which in turn leads to more currency debasement and increasing likelihood of the debt spiral playing out.
All assets get dragged down when we have rare global market volatility like this. You will not time a bottom. Short term asset prices are completely unpredictable when Trump can stay retarded for longer than most can stay solvent.
DCAing below the cost to mine a Bitcoin (~$85k right now) is a simple strategy. I think this pays off 12 months from now.
Focus on what will be attractive in the environment we find ourselves in once we emerge from the rubble.
What's ahead for this week:
Leaving these longer term thoughts aside, this week we will have:
-US CPI (Thursday): Market expects 2.6% YoY (down from 2.8%); surprise to the upside is likely (even Powell warned about the front-loading of tariffs) and could worsen the sell-off.
-University of Michigan inflation expectations (Friday) will also be closely watched.
Light calendar otherwise but retaliatory tariffs announcement maintain high levels of uncertainty. We could expect Powell to talk if the situation does not improve and this will be important to monitor. The fake headline yesterday did show that the market is willing to rally on any positive headline, so I do feel like we are set up for a short term counter move if we get any positive news.
👍29🔥10❤4
Wednesday Market Update
Market continues to be volatile and last week, we saw a strong rebound after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for most countries. The Nasdaq jumped 12%, its second-best day ever. BTC also performed strongly and finished the week around 85k.
However, China was excluded from the tariff pause and instead it seems that the trade war between US and China is growing stronger: U.S. tariffs rose to 145% on Chinese goods, prompting 125% retaliatory tariffs. Evolution of this trade war is something to monitor in the near future. Can expect higher than expected volatility to persist until we have a bit more clarity on this situation.
Also worth noting that last week, the Fed minutes flagged risks to growth and employment, and upside inflation from tariffs. Still, most members favored a cautious stance, suggesting rate cuts remain uncertain. However Fed officials said that they are ready to act if things start to get out of control.
In any case, I believe the macro generally supports Bitcoin if you believe it will gradually decouple from risk assets and follow gold due to people looking to diversify away from USD & government debt.
An update on altcoins:
For now, it seems that BTC.D will continue to trend higher and I really have no idea when this breaks down in a meaningful way. We don't really have the environment that suggests it will anytime soon. Plus, I think it will be obvious when there is actually a clear catalyst for a breakdown.
A lot of people see altcoins as levered bets on Bitcoin. And in previous cycles they were, but that is just not the case now. They will remain PVP assets for the foreseeable future, and very few have charts that look constructive against BTC on HTFs.
General altcoin playbook is still the same: monthly billion dollar unlocks, a lack of sustainable value accrual in general, and a lack of interest from both retail and institutional investors (not the new shiny tech anymore). I believe there are still many large alt coins that will see their market caps vaporized (like OM, but not as quick).
Of course there will be a handful of alts that massively outperform BTC this year, as is always the case, and respect if you pick those with size (competition is fiercer than ever here). Nimble traders can do very well from the volatile conditions we will likely have for much of this year.
Market continues to be volatile and last week, we saw a strong rebound after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for most countries. The Nasdaq jumped 12%, its second-best day ever. BTC also performed strongly and finished the week around 85k.
However, China was excluded from the tariff pause and instead it seems that the trade war between US and China is growing stronger: U.S. tariffs rose to 145% on Chinese goods, prompting 125% retaliatory tariffs. Evolution of this trade war is something to monitor in the near future. Can expect higher than expected volatility to persist until we have a bit more clarity on this situation.
Also worth noting that last week, the Fed minutes flagged risks to growth and employment, and upside inflation from tariffs. Still, most members favored a cautious stance, suggesting rate cuts remain uncertain. However Fed officials said that they are ready to act if things start to get out of control.
In any case, I believe the macro generally supports Bitcoin if you believe it will gradually decouple from risk assets and follow gold due to people looking to diversify away from USD & government debt.
An update on altcoins:
For now, it seems that BTC.D will continue to trend higher and I really have no idea when this breaks down in a meaningful way. We don't really have the environment that suggests it will anytime soon. Plus, I think it will be obvious when there is actually a clear catalyst for a breakdown.
A lot of people see altcoins as levered bets on Bitcoin. And in previous cycles they were, but that is just not the case now. They will remain PVP assets for the foreseeable future, and very few have charts that look constructive against BTC on HTFs.
General altcoin playbook is still the same: monthly billion dollar unlocks, a lack of sustainable value accrual in general, and a lack of interest from both retail and institutional investors (not the new shiny tech anymore). I believe there are still many large alt coins that will see their market caps vaporized (like OM, but not as quick).
Of course there will be a handful of alts that massively outperform BTC this year, as is always the case, and respect if you pick those with size (competition is fiercer than ever here). Nimble traders can do very well from the volatile conditions we will likely have for much of this year.
❤26👍15😭3🤷1
Defi & Farming opportunities
I think HypeEVM is one of the only chain worth farming right now if you have small capital. Gut instinct is telling me it's going to be profitable.
We also know that Hyperliquid will allocate incentives for HyperEVM users, so I do think you can assume rewards get boosted with retroactive HYPE, which is one of the very few alt coins with value accrual, PMF & good tokenomics.
Word of caution: It goes without saying that this is very early days for the HyperEVM ecosystem. I am not risking more than I am willing to lose here. Don't be a fool and yolo too much into protocols that aren't battle tested.
In any cases, here is what I am doing for the ones interested:
Hyperbeat Ultra Hype vault on Upshift
This vault is an automated DeFi strategy that provides you with a one click access to farm the HypeEVM ecosystem. This is by far the easiest and most straightforward strategy.
You simply need to go on Upshift and deposit WHYPE in the Hyperbeat Ultra Hype vault to earn 6.0% APY + points from Upshift, Hyperbeat, Hyperlend. HyperSwap and more.
Link to Upshift:
https://app.upshift.finance
stakedhype
This is Hype’s main LST that you can use in DeFi to earn more yield. Unsure if there will be a protocol token, but pretty sure but pretty sure stHYPE holders will be rewarded by Jeff in the future with future HYPE airdrops.
Link to stakedhype:
https://www.stakedhype.fi
HyperSwap
You can use HyperSwap to do swap & LP to earn yield + HyperSwapX points.
For instance, one thing you can do is to wrap your stHYPE and provide liquidity on different pairs (HYPE/stHYPE etc) to earn yield + HyperSwapX points.
Here is a ref link if you want to try it out: https://app.hyperswap.exchange/#/swap?referral=aylo
Hyperlend
Lend HYPE, wstHYPE or UBTC to earn yield + Hyperlend points.
Pools are full right now so keep an eye out for space or increases in caps.
HyperLend has been officially recognised by the AAVE Dao as a friendly fork and will share revenue and tokens with AAVE.
Opt in to Hyperend here: app.hyperlend.finance/?ref=AYLO
HypurrFi
Borrow USDXL against wstHYPE to earn HypurrFi points.
You can also use hyperunit so you can supply BTC and ETH and borrow USDXL against those assets.
Link to HypurrFi:
https://app.hypurr.fi
Link to hyperunit:
https://app.hyperunit.xyz
Felix Protocol
Swap USDXL for feUSD and deposit in Felix Protocol.
Current yield in the HYPE pool is higher than the borrow cost of USDXL + you earn Felix points.
Decent amount of TVL and borrows in Felix right now.
Link to Felix:
https://usefelix.xyz/borrow
I think HypeEVM is one of the only chain worth farming right now if you have small capital. Gut instinct is telling me it's going to be profitable.
We also know that Hyperliquid will allocate incentives for HyperEVM users, so I do think you can assume rewards get boosted with retroactive HYPE, which is one of the very few alt coins with value accrual, PMF & good tokenomics.
Word of caution: It goes without saying that this is very early days for the HyperEVM ecosystem. I am not risking more than I am willing to lose here. Don't be a fool and yolo too much into protocols that aren't battle tested.
In any cases, here is what I am doing for the ones interested:
Hyperbeat Ultra Hype vault on Upshift
This vault is an automated DeFi strategy that provides you with a one click access to farm the HypeEVM ecosystem. This is by far the easiest and most straightforward strategy.
You simply need to go on Upshift and deposit WHYPE in the Hyperbeat Ultra Hype vault to earn 6.0% APY + points from Upshift, Hyperbeat, Hyperlend. HyperSwap and more.
Link to Upshift:
https://app.upshift.finance
stakedhype
This is Hype’s main LST that you can use in DeFi to earn more yield. Unsure if there will be a protocol token, but pretty sure but pretty sure stHYPE holders will be rewarded by Jeff in the future with future HYPE airdrops.
Link to stakedhype:
https://www.stakedhype.fi
HyperSwap
You can use HyperSwap to do swap & LP to earn yield + HyperSwapX points.
For instance, one thing you can do is to wrap your stHYPE and provide liquidity on different pairs (HYPE/stHYPE etc) to earn yield + HyperSwapX points.
Here is a ref link if you want to try it out: https://app.hyperswap.exchange/#/swap?referral=aylo
Hyperlend
Lend HYPE, wstHYPE or UBTC to earn yield + Hyperlend points.
Pools are full right now so keep an eye out for space or increases in caps.
HyperLend has been officially recognised by the AAVE Dao as a friendly fork and will share revenue and tokens with AAVE.
Opt in to Hyperend here: app.hyperlend.finance/?ref=AYLO
HypurrFi
Borrow USDXL against wstHYPE to earn HypurrFi points.
You can also use hyperunit so you can supply BTC and ETH and borrow USDXL against those assets.
Link to HypurrFi:
https://app.hypurr.fi
Link to hyperunit:
https://app.hyperunit.xyz
Felix Protocol
Swap USDXL for feUSD and deposit in Felix Protocol.
Current yield in the HYPE pool is higher than the borrow cost of USDXL + you earn Felix points.
Decent amount of TVL and borrows in Felix right now.
Link to Felix:
https://usefelix.xyz/borrow
app.hyperswap.exchange
Hyperswap Interface
Redefining Decentralized Finance on HyperEVM.
❤22🔥2🤔2👍1
Tuesday market update
In the last days, BTC has started to decouple from other risk assets and has shown some relative strength against US equities. This is something very positive to see, but I’d argue we need a few more days of price action to determine whether this is just noise and short-term driven (like a strong leverage move), or if it's signaling real strength.
For now, the consensus bet is that BTC path is down if US equities are down. But I actually believe that this very belief might create the condition for a contrarian outcome: a real BTC decoupling. Remember, consensus is often wrong in markets, especially during inflection points, and I think the odds of a decoupling are higher than most think, especially when we see how Bitcoin has held up much better than everyone thought it would since the chaos started.
Anyway, I don’t have a strong read on the short term. Markets are path dependant and as long as tariffs are the dominating force, we can still expect higher than usual volatility driven by some more wild Trump headline. Meanwhile, other macro data, like a weaker USD, or the liquidity rebound we had in Q1 aren’t really getting much market attention.
But at some point, things will shift and timing should be good for crypto with QE, rate cuts, resolution around tariff, and BTC rally following the gold mania. But in the meantime, a lot can happen, so risk management is key, and you should have a gameplan ready for all scenarios. Reality of investing/trading is that most of your gains happen in brief period of time and your job is to stay alive long enough to catch them.
In the last days, BTC has started to decouple from other risk assets and has shown some relative strength against US equities. This is something very positive to see, but I’d argue we need a few more days of price action to determine whether this is just noise and short-term driven (like a strong leverage move), or if it's signaling real strength.
For now, the consensus bet is that BTC path is down if US equities are down. But I actually believe that this very belief might create the condition for a contrarian outcome: a real BTC decoupling. Remember, consensus is often wrong in markets, especially during inflection points, and I think the odds of a decoupling are higher than most think, especially when we see how Bitcoin has held up much better than everyone thought it would since the chaos started.
Anyway, I don’t have a strong read on the short term. Markets are path dependant and as long as tariffs are the dominating force, we can still expect higher than usual volatility driven by some more wild Trump headline. Meanwhile, other macro data, like a weaker USD, or the liquidity rebound we had in Q1 aren’t really getting much market attention.
But at some point, things will shift and timing should be good for crypto with QE, rate cuts, resolution around tariff, and BTC rally following the gold mania. But in the meantime, a lot can happen, so risk management is key, and you should have a gameplan ready for all scenarios. Reality of investing/trading is that most of your gains happen in brief period of time and your job is to stay alive long enough to catch them.
👍28❤14💯3😁2👌2
Trump caved.
Hard for me to see more drastic Trump headline risk from here on out.
Bitcoin looking good here. How it held up whilst equities collapsed won't be forgotten.
Likely a new era for the asset.
Many people construct portfolios based on risk adjusted returns, something slightly alien to CT lol.
The allocation to BTC should be increased based on its changing profile by many fund managers/investors.
If the downside risk to holding US indexes is similar to Bitcoin, but the upside isn't really there based on growth estimates then the portfolio is going to underperform.
Hard for me to see more drastic Trump headline risk from here on out.
Bitcoin looking good here. How it held up whilst equities collapsed won't be forgotten.
Likely a new era for the asset.
Many people construct portfolios based on risk adjusted returns, something slightly alien to CT lol.
The allocation to BTC should be increased based on its changing profile by many fund managers/investors.
If the downside risk to holding US indexes is similar to Bitcoin, but the upside isn't really there based on growth estimates then the portfolio is going to underperform.
❤37👍7👌3😁2
Unlocks of note in May (data from DefiLlama):
Unlocks continue to be a very useful metric to follow, especially if you're looking at short-term and long-term shorting or buying.
According to DeFiLlama, the total upcoming unlock value in May only is roughly $1B.
Here are some that caught my eye:
$TRUMP: 0.25% of float ($5.5M) - Daily
$TIA: 0.15% of float ($2.3M) - Daily
$GMT: 3.05% of float ($4.5M) - MAY 08 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ENS: 2.83% of float ($17.7M) - MAY 09 (Frequency: Monthly)
$FLARE: 2.94% of float ($35.4M) - MAY 10 (Frequency : Monthly)
$LAYER: 12.83% of float ($88.1M) - MAY 12 (Frequency: Quarterly)
$APT: 2.94% of float ($35.4M) - MAY 13 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ARB: 1.95% of float ($29.4M) - MAY 16 (Frequency: Monthly)
$MELANIA: 5.69% of float ($7.7M) - MAY 20 (Frequency: Monthly)
$PYTH: 58.65% of float ($296.8M) - MAY 21 (Frequency: Monthly)
$REZ:12.15% of float ($4M) - MAY 21 (Frequency: Monthly)
$AXL: 1.64% of float ($5.5M) - MAY 28 (Frequency: Monthly)
$OP: 1.94% of float ($22M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)
Unlocks continue to be a very useful metric to follow, especially if you're looking at short-term and long-term shorting or buying.
According to DeFiLlama, the total upcoming unlock value in May only is roughly $1B.
Here are some that caught my eye:
$TRUMP: 0.25% of float ($5.5M) - Daily
$TIA: 0.15% of float ($2.3M) - Daily
$GMT: 3.05% of float ($4.5M) - MAY 08 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ENS: 2.83% of float ($17.7M) - MAY 09 (Frequency: Monthly)
$FLARE: 2.94% of float ($35.4M) - MAY 10 (Frequency : Monthly)
$LAYER: 12.83% of float ($88.1M) - MAY 12 (Frequency: Quarterly)
$APT: 2.94% of float ($35.4M) - MAY 13 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ARB: 1.95% of float ($29.4M) - MAY 16 (Frequency: Monthly)
$MELANIA: 5.69% of float ($7.7M) - MAY 20 (Frequency: Monthly)
$PYTH: 58.65% of float ($296.8M) - MAY 21 (Frequency: Monthly)
$REZ:12.15% of float ($4M) - MAY 21 (Frequency: Monthly)
$AXL: 1.64% of float ($5.5M) - MAY 28 (Frequency: Monthly)
$OP: 1.94% of float ($22M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)
🔥12❤5✍5👍4
Tuesday market Update
BTC closed April in the green and the monthly bullish trend is still very much intact. You can ascribe whatever narrative you want as to why BTC looks like this - decoupling from risk assets, sniffing out incoming liquidity, Saylor still buying etc...But I think the main takeaway is that the dip was bought and BTC is showing relative strength. As a matter of fact, BTC ETFs saw over $5.6B in net inflows, and only one day of net outflow since mid-April.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve been tightly consolidating between the $92k-97k level. I think at some point we might retest the $100k level, possibly even a bit higher in the short term. In any case, my base case scenario for now is that BTC still needs a bit longer consolidation before a possible break higher towards new ATHs. A move back towards the $80k could make me reassess my stance.
That said, macro remains very much uncertain. A lot can happen in the mid-term, and this can have an impact on markets. Tariff tailwind could possibly emerge after the 90-day extension ends on July 8th. The U.S. economy is also in a deceleration phase, and things could continue to get a bit worse in Q3/Q4. We still need to see how the Trump administration reacts to all of that. The stance of the Fed is also to be monitored.
A few things to watch this week:
FOMC decision is tomorrow (Wednesday). I think market is pricing no rate cut and a slight dovish guidance. But as always, Powell’s tone will be important to monitor, especially after last week’s weaker than expected GDP print (-0.3% QoQ vs. +0.2% expected). This could cause short-term volatility, but likely nothing significant.
Earnings season for tech stocks also continues. This could still impact market sentiment around tech in the short term, especially if there are some big negative surprises. Notably, Coinbase's earnings are scheduled for May 8. This is one to watch closely.
BTC closed April in the green and the monthly bullish trend is still very much intact. You can ascribe whatever narrative you want as to why BTC looks like this - decoupling from risk assets, sniffing out incoming liquidity, Saylor still buying etc...But I think the main takeaway is that the dip was bought and BTC is showing relative strength. As a matter of fact, BTC ETFs saw over $5.6B in net inflows, and only one day of net outflow since mid-April.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve been tightly consolidating between the $92k-97k level. I think at some point we might retest the $100k level, possibly even a bit higher in the short term. In any case, my base case scenario for now is that BTC still needs a bit longer consolidation before a possible break higher towards new ATHs. A move back towards the $80k could make me reassess my stance.
That said, macro remains very much uncertain. A lot can happen in the mid-term, and this can have an impact on markets. Tariff tailwind could possibly emerge after the 90-day extension ends on July 8th. The U.S. economy is also in a deceleration phase, and things could continue to get a bit worse in Q3/Q4. We still need to see how the Trump administration reacts to all of that. The stance of the Fed is also to be monitored.
A few things to watch this week:
FOMC decision is tomorrow (Wednesday). I think market is pricing no rate cut and a slight dovish guidance. But as always, Powell’s tone will be important to monitor, especially after last week’s weaker than expected GDP print (-0.3% QoQ vs. +0.2% expected). This could cause short-term volatility, but likely nothing significant.
Earnings season for tech stocks also continues. This could still impact market sentiment around tech in the short term, especially if there are some big negative surprises. Notably, Coinbase's earnings are scheduled for May 8. This is one to watch closely.
❤37👏2👍1🔥1
100k BTC is very different this time around.
The price has become much more familiar psychologically.
No euphoria. People sidelined, and still largely fearful/in disbelief.
Bitcoin also passed a big macro test, which is in recent memory.
The price has become much more familiar psychologically.
No euphoria. People sidelined, and still largely fearful/in disbelief.
Bitcoin also passed a big macro test, which is in recent memory.
❤59👏19🔥6
I'm personally not fading this market shift.
Pretty clear that the Trump and China tariff episode is coming to an end/is effectively over.
There will be no attempt to meaningfully lower US debt.
The show goes on.
TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3 & OTHERS all looking good for moves up after what now looks like a late cycle pull back.
Plenty of alts still won't get near their ATHs, so you still want to own either quality with good fundamentals, or total fucking garbage that gamblers like. Don't fall somewhere in the middle, as you will simply underperform BTC.
People are still scared and the market, from what I can see, is offside. This is how the market continues to leg up.
I don't think you've missed much if you are sidelined because fiscal responsibility has gone out the window so risk assets fly much higher.
Pretty clear that the Trump and China tariff episode is coming to an end/is effectively over.
There will be no attempt to meaningfully lower US debt.
The show goes on.
TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3 & OTHERS all looking good for moves up after what now looks like a late cycle pull back.
Plenty of alts still won't get near their ATHs, so you still want to own either quality with good fundamentals, or total fucking garbage that gamblers like. Don't fall somewhere in the middle, as you will simply underperform BTC.
People are still scared and the market, from what I can see, is offside. This is how the market continues to leg up.
I don't think you've missed much if you are sidelined because fiscal responsibility has gone out the window so risk assets fly much higher.
❤43🔥8👍2💯1
Tuesday Market Update
Last week’s price action was important for BTC. We had a strong push past $100k, which I view as confirmation of a potential new trend in crypto. As of writing, BTC is trading at $103k, extremely close to its ATH, and the setup looks strong. My base case is BTC accelerating from here. That’s also the outcome I’d favor. We are in those kind of moments for BTC where a big retrace and an invalidation of the bullish setup with a strong close below $94k could make me reassess my bullish scenario. But for now, I think that’s very unlikely.
For the past few months, most of the market attention was on tariffs. However, it seems that the worst of the tariffs has already been priced in. Markets are forward-looking, and with decent progress in the US/China talks, that chapter may be closing. That makes me a bit more confident on the macro front.
One more thing to note on the macro side is the latest CPI release, which came in at 2.3% YoY, the lowest since 2021. This should further support market confidence in rate cuts down the line.
On the crypto side, this week we had the official announcement that Coinbase ($COIN) is joining the SP500. It’s the first crypto company to do so and will now benefit from a passive bid in perpetuity. That’s a big milestone for the industry. Things are really moving fast.
The only blurry zone right now is around the GENIUS Act (the stablecoin regulation bill) which failed to advance in the Senate. Far from an expert on that front but I don’t think it has major implications for now. But still something to monitor.
On the longer-term horizon, interest payments on the debt remain the key macro driver. I think the market is going to start putting more emphasis on that. In that sense, regardless of the path, this will inevitably lead to more money printing. This should support risk assets anf the supports the bullish case for crypo.
What to do now: As long as BTC holds up, I think alts have a decent chance to run. But it’s still an ultra-selective environment. Imo, focus should be on the ones with strong narratives, solid fundamentals, recent relative strength and real signs of momentum. But as always, don’t overtrade or chase every new shiny thing as you will simply underperform BTC. Patience is underrated in crypto. Let your thesis play out and maintain strong risk management.
Last week’s price action was important for BTC. We had a strong push past $100k, which I view as confirmation of a potential new trend in crypto. As of writing, BTC is trading at $103k, extremely close to its ATH, and the setup looks strong. My base case is BTC accelerating from here. That’s also the outcome I’d favor. We are in those kind of moments for BTC where a big retrace and an invalidation of the bullish setup with a strong close below $94k could make me reassess my bullish scenario. But for now, I think that’s very unlikely.
For the past few months, most of the market attention was on tariffs. However, it seems that the worst of the tariffs has already been priced in. Markets are forward-looking, and with decent progress in the US/China talks, that chapter may be closing. That makes me a bit more confident on the macro front.
One more thing to note on the macro side is the latest CPI release, which came in at 2.3% YoY, the lowest since 2021. This should further support market confidence in rate cuts down the line.
On the crypto side, this week we had the official announcement that Coinbase ($COIN) is joining the SP500. It’s the first crypto company to do so and will now benefit from a passive bid in perpetuity. That’s a big milestone for the industry. Things are really moving fast.
The only blurry zone right now is around the GENIUS Act (the stablecoin regulation bill) which failed to advance in the Senate. Far from an expert on that front but I don’t think it has major implications for now. But still something to monitor.
On the longer-term horizon, interest payments on the debt remain the key macro driver. I think the market is going to start putting more emphasis on that. In that sense, regardless of the path, this will inevitably lead to more money printing. This should support risk assets anf the supports the bullish case for crypo.
What to do now: As long as BTC holds up, I think alts have a decent chance to run. But it’s still an ultra-selective environment. Imo, focus should be on the ones with strong narratives, solid fundamentals, recent relative strength and real signs of momentum. But as always, don’t overtrade or chase every new shiny thing as you will simply underperform BTC. Patience is underrated in crypto. Let your thesis play out and maintain strong risk management.
❤40👌6🔥3
Wednesday Market update
BTC is currently flirting with its ATH with high momentum. On top of that, macro looks more and more favorable for risk assets, and the GENIUS bill (important bill for stablecoins) just cleared a major hurdle in the Senate. This is a particularly favorable setup, and historical data supports this view.
Here’s some food for thought:
Looking at historical BTC PA within ~5% of ATH:
The data shows when BTC gets close of its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum (what we are seeing right now), it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).
Strong trend is key, as in weaker trends BTC often stalls or retraces as we saw in March–May 2024.
I think BTC currently meets the criteria for a strong, high-momentum trend (we are waiting on volume tho). Add to that the supportive macro landscape and the setup looks even more compelling.
If it continues to hover within 3–5% of the ATH under these conditions, historical probability favors a breakout to new highs very soon. This is my base case scenario for now.
But for some reason I feel like it is going to take longer than days this time, and weeks is more likely (maybe PTSD), or at least to actually meaningfully clear the high, rather than just a short pop above it.
I think a good heuristic to remember is that the longer BTC consolidates tightly near the ATH, the more sustained and healthy the breakout tends to be. Fast moves to new highs can be sharp but usually require a deeper consolidation down the line. So overall, it’s probably a good thing if BTC ranges here a bit longer. Let's just see if it does.
BTC is currently flirting with its ATH with high momentum. On top of that, macro looks more and more favorable for risk assets, and the GENIUS bill (important bill for stablecoins) just cleared a major hurdle in the Senate. This is a particularly favorable setup, and historical data supports this view.
Here’s some food for thought:
Looking at historical BTC PA within ~5% of ATH:
The data shows when BTC gets close of its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum (what we are seeing right now), it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).
Strong trend is key, as in weaker trends BTC often stalls or retraces as we saw in March–May 2024.
I think BTC currently meets the criteria for a strong, high-momentum trend (we are waiting on volume tho). Add to that the supportive macro landscape and the setup looks even more compelling.
If it continues to hover within 3–5% of the ATH under these conditions, historical probability favors a breakout to new highs very soon. This is my base case scenario for now.
But for some reason I feel like it is going to take longer than days this time, and weeks is more likely (maybe PTSD), or at least to actually meaningfully clear the high, rather than just a short pop above it.
I think a good heuristic to remember is that the longer BTC consolidates tightly near the ATH, the more sustained and healthy the breakout tends to be. Fast moves to new highs can be sharp but usually require a deeper consolidation down the line. So overall, it’s probably a good thing if BTC ranges here a bit longer. Let's just see if it does.
❤45🔥8👍2😁1
Alpha Tuesday Market Update
BTC finally broke its ATH last week with strong momentum and flirted with the $112k level. This was my expected scenario, although it came a bit faster than anticipated. What stands out is that this breakout happened with little hype on the timeline, and while US equities were correcting. So BTC is showing further signs of decoupling, along with strong momentum, and not much excitement. This makes the breakout even more significant.
While it is totally normal and healthy that we’ve retraced a bit from the ATH, I think the trend is set for now. We’re halfway through Q2, and after a rough Q1, we can expect more positive quarters ahead. For me, the real question isn’t if we bounce, but how long it lasts. Of course, this will depend on many factors, especially the macro landscape. We’ll need to adapt as things evolve, but for now, it’s a good time to stay bullish and not get distracted by day-to-day noise.
Zooming in, we don’t have a big macro week ahead. ISM, PMI, and unemployment rate are coming up, but I don’t expect them to move markets much. The market has its eyes elsewhere.
For now, I expect BTC to continue leading a bit longer before a potential local top in dominance. That could open the door for some quality alts to trend hard. SOL, HYPE, GRASS, ENA and a few others are still the main alts on my watchlist.
Anyway, my playbook is simple: I am already well positioned in my chosen alts + BTC, so for now, I am not buying, not selling, just surfing the second wave of this bull market and adapting to things as they evolve.
BTC finally broke its ATH last week with strong momentum and flirted with the $112k level. This was my expected scenario, although it came a bit faster than anticipated. What stands out is that this breakout happened with little hype on the timeline, and while US equities were correcting. So BTC is showing further signs of decoupling, along with strong momentum, and not much excitement. This makes the breakout even more significant.
While it is totally normal and healthy that we’ve retraced a bit from the ATH, I think the trend is set for now. We’re halfway through Q2, and after a rough Q1, we can expect more positive quarters ahead. For me, the real question isn’t if we bounce, but how long it lasts. Of course, this will depend on many factors, especially the macro landscape. We’ll need to adapt as things evolve, but for now, it’s a good time to stay bullish and not get distracted by day-to-day noise.
Zooming in, we don’t have a big macro week ahead. ISM, PMI, and unemployment rate are coming up, but I don’t expect them to move markets much. The market has its eyes elsewhere.
For now, I expect BTC to continue leading a bit longer before a potential local top in dominance. That could open the door for some quality alts to trend hard. SOL, HYPE, GRASS, ENA and a few others are still the main alts on my watchlist.
Anyway, my playbook is simple: I am already well positioned in my chosen alts + BTC, so for now, I am not buying, not selling, just surfing the second wave of this bull market and adapting to things as they evolve.
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