China escalating things again. Neither side backing down.

Wednesday Market Update

Market continues to be volatile and last week, we saw a strong rebound after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for most countries. The Nasdaq jumped 12%, its second-best day ever. BTC also performed strongly and finished the week around 85k.

However, China was excluded from the tariff pause and instead it seems that the trade war between US and China is growing stronger: U.S. tariffs rose to 145% on Chinese goods, prompting 125% retaliatory tariffs. Evolution of this trade war is something to monitor in the near future. Can expect higher than expected volatility to persist until we have a bit more clarity on this situation.

Also worth noting that last week, the Fed minutes flagged risks to growth and employment, and upside inflation from tariffs. Still, most members favored a cautious stance, suggesting rate cuts remain uncertain. However Fed officials said that they are ready to act if things start to get out of control.

In any case, I believe the macro generally supports Bitcoin if you believe it will gradually decouple from risk assets and follow gold due to people looking to diversify away from USD & government debt.

An update on altcoins:

For now, it seems that BTC.D will continue to trend higher and I really have no idea when this breaks down in a meaningful way. We don't really have the environment that suggests it will anytime soon. Plus, I think it will be obvious when there is actually a clear catalyst for a breakdown.

A lot of people see altcoins as levered bets on Bitcoin. And in previous cycles they were, but that is just not the case now. They will remain PVP assets for the foreseeable future, and very few have charts that look constructive against BTC on HTFs.

General altcoin playbook is still the same: monthly billion dollar unlocks, a lack of sustainable value accrual in general, and a lack of interest from both retail and institutional investors (not the new shiny tech anymore). I believe there are still many large alt coins that will see their market caps vaporized (like OM, but not as quick).

Of course there will be a handful of alts that massively outperform BTC this year, as is always the case, and respect if you pick those with size (competition is fiercer than ever here). Nimble traders can do very well from the volatile conditions we will likely have for much of this year.

Defi & Farming opportunities

I think HypeEVM is one of the only chain worth farming right now if you have small capital. Gut instinct is telling me it's going to be profitable.

We also know that Hyperliquid will allocate incentives for HyperEVM users, so I do think you can assume rewards get boosted with retroactive HYPE, which is one of the very few alt coins with value accrual, PMF & good tokenomics.

Word of caution: It goes without saying that this is very early days for the HyperEVM ecosystem. I am not risking more than I am willing to lose here. Don't be a fool and yolo too much into protocols that aren't battle tested.

In any cases, here is what I am doing for the ones interested:

Hyperbeat Ultra Hype vault on Upshift

This vault is an automated DeFi strategy that provides you with a one click access to farm the HypeEVM ecosystem. This is by far the easiest and most straightforward strategy.

You simply need to go on Upshift and deposit WHYPE in the Hyperbeat Ultra Hype vault to earn 6.0% APY + points from Upshift, Hyperbeat, Hyperlend. HyperSwap and more.

Link to Upshift:
https://app.upshift.finance

stakedhype

This is Hype’s main LST that you can use in DeFi to earn more yield. Unsure if there will be a protocol token, but pretty sure but pretty sure stHYPE holders will be rewarded by Jeff in the future with future HYPE airdrops.

Link to stakedhype:
https://www.stakedhype.fi

HyperSwap

You can use HyperSwap to do swap & LP to earn yield + HyperSwapX points.

For instance, one thing you can do is to wrap your stHYPE and provide liquidity on different pairs (HYPE/stHYPE etc) to earn yield + HyperSwapX points.

Here is a ref link if you want to try it out: https://app.hyperswap.exchange/#/swap?referral=aylo

Hyperlend

Lend HYPE, wstHYPE or UBTC to earn yield + Hyperlend points.

Pools are full right now so keep an eye out for space or increases in caps.

HyperLend has been officially recognised by the AAVE Dao as a friendly fork and will share revenue and tokens with AAVE.

Opt in to Hyperend here: app.hyperlend.finance/?ref=AYLO

HypurrFi

Borrow USDXL against wstHYPE to earn HypurrFi points.

You can also use hyperunit so you can supply BTC and ETH and borrow USDXL against those assets.

Link to HypurrFi:
https://app.hypurr.fi

Link to hyperunit:
https://app.hyperunit.xyz

Felix Protocol

Swap USDXL for feUSD and deposit in Felix Protocol.

Current yield in the HYPE pool is higher than the borrow cost of USDXL + you earn Felix points.

Decent amount of TVL and borrows in Felix right now.

Link to Felix:
https://usefelix.xyz/borrow

Tuesday market update

In the last days, BTC has started to decouple from other risk assets and has shown some relative strength against US equities. This is something very positive to see, but I’d argue we need a few more days of price action to determine whether this is just noise and short-term driven (like a strong leverage move), or if it's signaling real strength.

For now, the consensus bet is that BTC path is down if US equities are down. But I actually believe that this very belief might create the condition for a contrarian outcome: a real BTC decoupling. Remember, consensus is often wrong in markets, especially during inflection points, and I think the odds of a decoupling are higher than most think, especially when we see how Bitcoin has held up much better than everyone thought it would since the chaos started.

Anyway, I don’t have a strong read on the short term. Markets are path dependant and as long as tariffs are the dominating force, we can still expect higher than usual volatility driven by some more wild Trump headline. Meanwhile, other macro data, like a weaker USD, or the liquidity rebound we had in Q1 aren’t really getting much market attention.

But at some point, things will shift and timing should be good for crypto with QE, rate cuts, resolution around tariff, and BTC rally following the gold mania. But in the meantime, a lot can happen, so risk management is key, and you should have a gameplan ready for all scenarios. Reality of investing/trading is that most of your gains happen in brief period of time and your job is to stay alive long enough to catch them.

Unlocks of note in May (data from DefiLlama):

Unlocks continue to be a very useful metric to follow, especially if you're looking at short-term and long-term shorting or buying.

According to DeFiLlama, the total upcoming unlock value in May only is roughly $1B.

Here are some that caught my eye:

$TRUMP: 0.25% of float ($5.5M) - Daily
$TIA: 0.15% of float ($2.3M) - Daily
$GMT: 3.05% of float ($4.5M) - MAY 08 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ENS: 2.83% of float ($17.7M) - MAY 09 (Frequency: Monthly)
$FLARE: 2.94% of float ($35.4M) - MAY 10 (Frequency : Monthly)
$LAYER: 12.83% of float ($88.1M) - MAY 12 (Frequency: Quarterly)
$APT: 2.94% of float ($35.4M) - MAY 13 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ARB: 1.95% of float ($29.4M) - MAY 16 (Frequency: Monthly)
$MELANIA: 5.69% of float ($7.7M) - MAY 20 (Frequency: Monthly)
$PYTH: 58.65% of float ($296.8M) - MAY 21 (Frequency: Monthly)
$REZ:12.15% of float ($4M) - MAY 21 (Frequency: Monthly)
$AXL: 1.64% of float ($5.5M) - MAY 28 (Frequency: Monthly)
$OP: 1.94% of float ($22M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)

Tuesday market Update

BTC closed April in the green and the monthly bullish trend is still very much intact. You can ascribe whatever narrative you want as to why BTC looks like this - decoupling from risk assets, sniffing out incoming liquidity, Saylor still buying etc...But I think the main takeaway is that the dip was bought and BTC is showing relative strength. As a matter of fact, BTC ETFs saw over $5.6B in net inflows, and only one day of net outflow since mid-April.

Over the past two weeks, we’ve been tightly consolidating between the $92k-97k level. I think at some point we might retest the $100k level, possibly even a bit higher in the short term. In any case, my base case scenario for now is that BTC still needs a bit longer consolidation before a possible break higher towards new ATHs. A move back towards the $80k could make me reassess my stance.

That said, macro remains very much uncertain. A lot can happen in the mid-term, and this can have an impact on markets. Tariff tailwind could possibly emerge after the 90-day extension ends on July 8th. The U.S. economy is also in a deceleration phase, and things could continue to get a bit worse in Q3/Q4. We still need to see how the Trump administration reacts to all of that. The stance of the Fed is also to be monitored.

A few things to watch this week:

FOMC decision is tomorrow (Wednesday). I think market is pricing no rate cut and a slight dovish guidance. But as always, Powell’s tone will be important to monitor, especially after last week’s weaker than expected GDP print (-0.3% QoQ vs. +0.2% expected). This could cause short-term volatility, but likely nothing significant.

Earnings season for tech stocks also continues. This could still impact market sentiment around tech in the short term, especially if there are some big negative surprises. Notably, Coinbase's earnings are scheduled for May 8. This is one to watch closely.

100k BTC is very different this time around.

The price has become much more familiar psychologically.

No euphoria. People sidelined, and still largely fearful/in disbelief.

Bitcoin also passed a big macro test, which is in recent memory.

I'm personally not fading this market shift.

Pretty clear that the Trump and China tariff episode is coming to an end/is effectively over.

There will be no attempt to meaningfully lower US debt.

The show goes on.

TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3 & OTHERS all looking good for moves up after what now looks like a late cycle pull back.

Plenty of alts still won't get near their ATHs, so you still want to own either quality with good fundamentals, or total fucking garbage that gamblers like. Don't fall somewhere in the middle, as you will simply underperform BTC.

People are still scared and the market, from what I can see, is offside. This is how the market continues to leg up.

I don't think you've missed much if you are sidelined because fiscal responsibility has gone out the window so risk assets fly much higher.

Tuesday Market Update

Last week’s price action was important for BTC. We had a strong push past $100k, which I view as confirmation of a potential new trend in crypto. As of writing, BTC is trading at $103k, extremely close to its ATH, and the setup looks strong. My base case is BTC accelerating from here. That’s also the outcome I’d favor. We are in those kind of moments for BTC where a big retrace and an invalidation of the bullish setup with a strong close below $94k could make me reassess my bullish scenario. But for now, I think that’s very unlikely.

For the past few months, most of the market attention was on tariffs. However, it seems that the worst of the tariffs has already been priced in. Markets are forward-looking, and with decent progress in the US/China talks, that chapter may be closing. That makes me a bit more confident on the macro front.

One more thing to note on the macro side is the latest CPI release, which came in at 2.3% YoY, the lowest since 2021. This should further support market confidence in rate cuts down the line.

On the crypto side, this week we had the official announcement that Coinbase ($COIN) is joining the SP500. It’s the first crypto company to do so and will now benefit from a passive bid in perpetuity. That’s a big milestone for the industry. Things are really moving fast.

The only blurry zone right now is around the GENIUS Act (the stablecoin regulation bill) which failed to advance in the Senate. Far from an expert on that front but I don’t think it has major implications for now. But still something to monitor.

On the longer-term horizon, interest payments on the debt remain the key macro driver. I think the market is going to start putting more emphasis on that. In that sense, regardless of the path, this will inevitably lead to more money printing. This should support risk assets anf the supports the bullish case for crypo.

What to do now: As long as BTC holds up, I think alts have a decent chance to run. But it’s still an ultra-selective environment. Imo, focus should be on the ones with strong narratives, solid fundamentals, recent relative strength and real signs of momentum. But as always, don’t overtrade or chase every new shiny thing as you will simply underperform BTC. Patience is underrated in crypto. Let your thesis play out and maintain strong risk management.

Wednesday Market update

BTC is currently flirting with its ATH with high momentum. On top of that, macro looks more and more favorable for risk assets, and the GENIUS bill (important bill for stablecoins) just cleared a major hurdle in the Senate. This is a particularly favorable setup, and historical data supports this view.

Here’s some food for thought:

Looking at historical BTC PA within ~5% of ATH:

The data shows when BTC gets close of its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum (what we are seeing right now), it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).

Strong trend is key, as in weaker trends BTC often stalls or retraces as we saw in March–May 2024.

I think BTC currently meets the criteria for a strong, high-momentum trend (we are waiting on volume tho). Add to that the supportive macro landscape and the setup looks even more compelling.

If it continues to hover within 3–5% of the ATH under these conditions, historical probability favors a breakout to new highs very soon. This is my base case scenario for now.

But for some reason I feel like it is going to take longer than days this time, and weeks is more likely (maybe PTSD), or at least to actually meaningfully clear the high, rather than just a short pop above it.

I think a good heuristic to remember is that the longer BTC consolidates tightly near the ATH, the more sustained and healthy the breakout tends to be. Fast moves to new highs can be sharp but usually require a deeper consolidation down the line. So overall, it’s probably a good thing if BTC ranges here a bit longer. Let's just see if it does.

Alpha Tuesday Market Update

BTC finally broke its ATH last week with strong momentum and flirted with the $112k level. This was my expected scenario, although it came a bit faster than anticipated. What stands out is that this breakout happened with little hype on the timeline, and while US equities were correcting. So BTC is showing further signs of decoupling, along with strong momentum, and not much excitement. This makes the breakout even more significant.

While it is totally normal and healthy that we’ve retraced a bit from the ATH, I think the trend is set for now. We’re halfway through Q2, and after a rough Q1, we can expect more positive quarters ahead. For me, the real question isn’t if we bounce, but how long it lasts. Of course, this will depend on many factors, especially the macro landscape. We’ll need to adapt as things evolve, but for now, it’s a good time to stay bullish and not get distracted by day-to-day noise.

Zooming in, we don’t have a big macro week ahead. ISM, PMI, and unemployment rate are coming up, but I don’t expect them to move markets much. The market has its eyes elsewhere.

For now, I expect BTC to continue leading a bit longer before a potential local top in dominance. That could open the door for some quality alts to trend hard. SOL, HYPE, GRASS, ENA and a few others are still the main alts on my watchlist.

Anyway, my playbook is simple: I am already well positioned in my chosen alts + BTC, so for now, I am not buying, not selling, just surfing the second wave of this bull market and adapting to things as they evolve.

Unlocks of note in June (data from DefiLlama):

According to DeFiLlama, the total upcoming unlock value in June only over $1B.

Here are some that caught my eye:

$TRUMP: 0.25% of float ($6.2M) - Daily
$TIA: 0.15% of float ($2.5M) - Daily
$OP: 1.94% of float ($22M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)
$STRK: 1.14% of float ($5.8M) - MAY 30 (Frequency: Monthly)
$DYDX: 1.04% of float ($5.4M) - MAY 31
$PRIME: 36.65% of float ($72.2M) - JUNE 01
$SUI: 1.66% of float ($203M) - JUNE 02 (Frequency: Monthly)
$CETUS: 1.15% of float ($1.3M) - JUNE 03 (Frequency: Monthly)
$IMX: 1.9% of float ($22.3M) - JUNE 06 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ENS: 2.82% of float ($22M) - JUNE 08 (Frequency: Monthly)
$FLARE: 3.01% of float ($37M) - JUNE 09 (Frequency : Monthly)
$APT: 1.77% of float ($60.2M) - JUNE 12 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ARB: 1.91% of float ($37.5M) - JUNE 15 (Frequency: Monthly)
$ZK: 190% of float ($431.6M) - JUNE 17
$MELANIA: 5.61% of float ($7.7M) - JUNE 20 (Frequency: Monthly)
$REZ:12.06% of float ($4.5M) - JUNE 24 (Frequency: Monthly)
$BLAST: 144% of float ($132.2M) - JUNE 26
$AXL: 1.63% of float ($5.3M) - JUNE 27 (Frequency: Monthly)

Starting a new series focused on apps.

Being active onchain & trying new stuff has always paid off for me.

Each week I’ll cover 3 apps I think are worth your time - early, interesting, and ideally high-upside 🫡

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-top-play-on-hyperliquid

Alpha please market update

After BTC's strong recovery run from the $75k level to $111k, we had a little pullback in the last two weeks back to the $100k levels. This was a normal and healthy correction that allowed the market to cool down a bit.

Now, the setup looks strong again. BTC is showing signs of strength on shorter time frames, and momentum seems to be returning. Let’s see if this is just a move to the high of the range before another pullback, or the start of a new wave that pushes BTC beyond its previous ATH.

In any case, the longer-term setup is still unchanged on BTC, imo. For now, the question is just whether the consolidation takes a bit longer or not.

A few other things to note:

Recent clashes between Trump and Musk were not on my bingo card. Without getting too deep into the drama, it seems it started when Musk publicly raised concerns about a new bill that he though was really bad for the U.S. deficit. While this escalated into a bigger fight, the main takeaway for me is that: 1. U.S. deficits are a real and growing problem, 2. For now, there’s a clear divergence between Trump’s talk and actual plans to address it, and 3. One of the few hopes for tacklingthis issue (Elon Musk) seems to have left the ship. Ramifications of this can be big but ultimately, I think it reinforces the structural bull case for BTC.

Last week, we also had the long-awaited Circle IPO. It was a great success, and the amount of hype around it was unreal. The price reached $120 on the second day of trading. A 4x from the IPO offer price of $31. I think this tells us a lot about TradFi's current appetite for crypto and the potential of stablecoins.

Macro for the week:

It’s a relatively quiet week on the macro front. The main events to watch are the CPI release on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. The next major events to follow closely will be the FOMC meeting on June 17–18. Interest rates are still expected to remain unchanged, but I think Powell’s tone will set the tone for what to expect in terms of the Fed Funds Rate for the next part of the year. To be followed.

Another week, here's three more apps I think you should check out:

• One of the best credit cards in DeFi
• HyperEVM app you should be farming
• InfoFi project w/ reward system live

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-the-best-defi-credit

Finding it impossible to be bearish on crypto (yes, short term Summer chop probably, but zoom out).

A few thoughts:

The U.S. Senate just passed the GENIUS Act, the first comprehensive federal legislation for fiat-backed stablecoins.

Stablecoins already power the largest real-world use case in crypto:

• $250B+ live onchain
• Instant global settlement
• < $0.01 tx fees
• Open API for money

Now, it gets a legal foundation to go global. It's huge and not to be faded.

This lays the groundwork for trillions in stablecoin settlement volume. It's huge for DeFi.

Every bank, fintech, and payments processor now has a regulated, programmable digital dollar they can actually use.

The biggest bottleneck was legal clarity, which is now gone.

But stablecoins aren’t just for payments. They’re the gateway to speculation, as all the degens on here are aware.

They’re the liquidity base layer of the entire crypto economy.

At the same time, regulators are quietly easing capital rules for U.S. banks.

That frees up bank balance sheets.

More capital = more lending
More lending = lower rates
Lower rates = more risk appetite
More liquidity = stronger BTC tailwinds

BTC thrives when liquidity expands and stablecoins amplify that liquidity. TradFi + Crypto are now structurally aligned for it.

So in summary we have:

• Stablecoins getting federal clarity (DeFi to benefit)
• Banks regaining liquidity
• Borrowing costs likely heading lower
• BTC acting like a macro hedge with clear investor demand (I haven't even mentioned the BTC company treasury ponzi bubble that is growing)

Being bearish here requires me to fade regulatory clarity, institutional momentum, and macro tailwinds.

Find the right coins, have a little patience, and enjoy your Summer.

3 new apps for you to try this week (all pre-token):

• Let an AI agent buy Bitcoin for you
• Another Hyperliquid app to maximize your HyperEVM exposure
• Earn fixed yield on Solana

Full breakdown in my latest newsletter:

https://www.alphaplease.com/p/3-alpha-apps-buying-bitcoin-with

Seeing BTC hold extremely well amidst this geopolitical shitshow reinforces my conviction that the times ahead will be positive for crypto. In my mind, BTC, HYPE, SOL, and a few others remain top assets to hold going forward.

However, as I have said time and again, we will continue to see creative destruction forces at play in the market. Speculative premiums that many crypto projects once enjoyed is a thing of the past.

The market is distinguishing between good protocols with bad tokens (no value capture, high inflation) and good protocols with good tokens (value capture, low inflation), as it should.

Our collective understanding of tokens, valuations and value capture has improved because we have more data having seen so many tokens trend to zero.

The bar is much higher now than in the past. Even more so when you consider that we have crypto stocks that big money can easily ape in to, and they are doing well ($COIN, $CRCL, and co).

And there are no new retail flows to bid tokens that don't make sense, like the past. Yes, we are retail, but we are just a hot ball of PvP money.

There is no exit liquidity for vapour.

It is a great time to keep clicking and stay curious. Here are 3 more apps for you to try this week:

• Real yield on Hyperliquid using delta-netural strategy (limited invite codes, act fast)
• Tokenized time primitives
• A top-notch Solana debit card

Check out my latest newsletter for all the alpha:

https://alphapls.substack.com/p/3-alpha-apps-real-yield-on-hyperliquid