CT got their ass saved by holding exclusively altcoins lmao

First time they have been rewarded for that

Make sure that you don't die when this kind of cascade happens on altcoins though, because that will happen too at some point

SOLBTC has basically not moved in a year

You could have rotated all of your $SOL into $BTC when SOL had its strong pump in December 2023, and you would have had the exact same performance.

If I had to guess, I would expect this range to resolve to the upside, but not tremendously higher

Almost $300bn have to unlock in the coming years from all the altcoins launched in 2023 and 2024.

I have not derisked anything yet, but this is something you have to keep in mind, we won't go up forever.

Memes up

DeFi down

'How much more stupid can it get ?'

Sir... a lot more

The memecoin trifecta (NEIRO, GOAT, MOODENG) has been struggling a lot

In the same time, memecoins can move quickly and sometimes holding them while they are consolidating is a good idea since you will capture the entirety of the move up when it will happen

I don't know if I should jump back on that ship

That was a vicious bull trap on MOODENG

For those that did not track it too closely, Michael Saylor has been announcing each Monday for the past 4 weeks that MicroStrategy has bought $BTC during the previous week.

Here are the amounts that have been bought and the date they were announced :

11/11 : $2030M
11/18 : $4600M
11/25 : $5400M
12/02 : $1500M

Almost all of these purchases were funded via ATM offerings (ie selling new MSTR shares at market price and then buying BTC with that money), which is something Saylor wants to do when the MSTR premium is high.

Based on their 21/21 plan, they still have $11.3bn remaining for ATM offerings (which automatically results in BTC purchases).

Given the fact that the MSTR premium has not been collapsing, I think the market is expecting him to announce another batch tomorrow.

By the way, when he buys BTC after an ATM, he *reduces* the overall leverage of Microstrategy, he does not increase it. The leverage only goes up when he issued convertible bonds, but he's going way slower on the debt part vs the equity part of his 21/21 Plan.

Gut feeling says that too many people are 'cautious' for any large correction to happen here

My portfolio will get punished if I am wrong

Take a chance

Here it is.

$2100M is in line with last week.

Now there is $9.1bn left on the ATM side.

MSTR premium is stable, Microstrategy will be buying again this week.

I don't see any good reason to believe that MicroStrategy will stop buying $BTC before the $21bn in ATM target is reached.

Still $9bn to go

Do you want to sell your $BTC while you know that ?

What is even better is that Saylor will reduce the leverage of Microstrategy by buying $BTC with these $9bn ATM left, so then he will be able to issue convertible bonds (the other $21bn of the 21/21 plan) to buy even more $BTC

Saylor just announced he bought $BTC and yet price is going UP, WHAT IS GOING ON ???

New paradigm baby

Before the elections : Saylor announcing that he bought usually meant that he was out of ammo for a while

Since the elections : Saylor announcing that he bought means he will keep doing it until he can't do ATM offerings anymore

$CHUD is the slowest memecoin on earth but this position gives me a strange sense of comfort

FYI

I was net long going into that liquidation event, but had really stinky bids hit on both some longs and hedge shorts, which definitely saved my PnL because we bounced hard after that.

The lessons are the same as usual in bull markets :

- Over-leveraging will put you in a situation of weakness, which is really uncomfortable and dangerous

- Set some stinky bids because these are an incredible way to generate profits when the flush finally happens

$SCR has been a very hated coin, but chart-wise, it looks good, it has been one of the strongest bounces since the dump, and the valuation is 'small' ($1bn FDV) on a relative basis.

Are we getting a 4th dump followed by sharp recovery ?

argh

Recap of the past 2 weeks :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-10