Almost $300bn have to unlock in the coming years from all the altcoins launched in 2023 and 2024.

I have not derisked anything yet, but this is something you have to keep in mind, we won't go up forever.

Memes up

DeFi down

'How much more stupid can it get ?'

Sir... a lot more

The memecoin trifecta (NEIRO, GOAT, MOODENG) has been struggling a lot

In the same time, memecoins can move quickly and sometimes holding them while they are consolidating is a good idea since you will capture the entirety of the move up when it will happen

I don't know if I should jump back on that ship

That was a vicious bull trap on MOODENG

For those that did not track it too closely, Michael Saylor has been announcing each Monday for the past 4 weeks that MicroStrategy has bought $BTC during the previous week.

Here are the amounts that have been bought and the date they were announced :

11/11 : $2030M
11/18 : $4600M
11/25 : $5400M
12/02 : $1500M

Almost all of these purchases were funded via ATM offerings (ie selling new MSTR shares at market price and then buying BTC with that money), which is something Saylor wants to do when the MSTR premium is high.

Based on their 21/21 plan, they still have $11.3bn remaining for ATM offerings (which automatically results in BTC purchases).

Given the fact that the MSTR premium has not been collapsing, I think the market is expecting him to announce another batch tomorrow.

By the way, when he buys BTC after an ATM, he *reduces* the overall leverage of Microstrategy, he does not increase it. The leverage only goes up when he issued convertible bonds, but he's going way slower on the debt part vs the equity part of his 21/21 Plan.

Gut feeling says that too many people are 'cautious' for any large correction to happen here

My portfolio will get punished if I am wrong

Take a chance

Here it is.

$2100M is in line with last week.

Now there is $9.1bn left on the ATM side.

MSTR premium is stable, Microstrategy will be buying again this week.

I don't see any good reason to believe that MicroStrategy will stop buying $BTC before the $21bn in ATM target is reached.

Still $9bn to go

Do you want to sell your $BTC while you know that ?

What is even better is that Saylor will reduce the leverage of Microstrategy by buying $BTC with these $9bn ATM left, so then he will be able to issue convertible bonds (the other $21bn of the 21/21 plan) to buy even more $BTC

Saylor just announced he bought $BTC and yet price is going UP, WHAT IS GOING ON ???

New paradigm baby

Before the elections : Saylor announcing that he bought usually meant that he was out of ammo for a while

Since the elections : Saylor announcing that he bought means he will keep doing it until he can't do ATM offerings anymore

$CHUD is the slowest memecoin on earth but this position gives me a strange sense of comfort

FYI

I was net long going into that liquidation event, but had really stinky bids hit on both some longs and hedge shorts, which definitely saved my PnL because we bounced hard after that.

The lessons are the same as usual in bull markets :

- Over-leveraging will put you in a situation of weakness, which is really uncomfortable and dangerous

- Set some stinky bids because these are an incredible way to generate profits when the flush finally happens

$SCR has been a very hated coin, but chart-wise, it looks good, it has been one of the strongest bounces since the dump, and the valuation is 'small' ($1bn FDV) on a relative basis.

Are we getting a 4th dump followed by sharp recovery ?

argh

Recap of the past 2 weeks :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-10

Recap of the past 2 weeks in crypto :

- $BTC broke $100K, reached $104k before a liquidation cascade to $91k. 4 days later, we got another flush on altcoins too. Funding is now reset after $2bn of long liquidated in 2 days.

- Dino coins have been unstoppable until early December : $XRP reached $290bn FDV, 8x in a month for $HBAR, 2x in a day to $40bn MC for $TRX, $ADA top at $46bn MC...

- DeFi Renaissance : $AAVE $UNI $CRV $SUSHI $CVX have all been pumping. Retail seems to like to buy the future of finance ?

- Metaverse coins ran hard too : $SAND $MANA $GALA

- RWA is another strong normie-friendly narrative : +230% for $ONDO in a month and almost $20bn FDV. $RSR pumped hard on Paul Atkins nomination at the SEC.

- $PEPE reached a new ATH at almost $12bn MC. $MOG too

- Coinbase listed MOODENG, MOG, GIGA, TURBO but overall memecoins have been lagging

- $ETH touched $4k and a few ETH beta coins have been showing strength : $EIGEN $ENS $LDO $SCR $PUFFER

- $HYPE launched at $3bn FDV and reached $15bn FDV in less than 2 weeks

- AI agent sector remains hot : $AI16Z $VIRTUAL $EMP
- $ENA has been outperforming => high funding rates flywheel
- $SUI and $BNB reached a new ATH
- New launches : $CULT $MOVE $ME

The way you can look at MSTR is that it takes BTC returns and volatility, and then offers securities that are lower returns lower volat (convertible bonds) than BTC, as well as higher returns higher volat (MSTR stock).

There is a giant stack of money in the debt market that Saylor can attract and funnel into $BTC, he's basically finding new buyers that would never have bought BTC if they did not have access to these lower risk financial products.

BTC treasury companies and current buying pressure :

$MSTR - obviously. Buying $2bn worth of $BTC each week. Mostly from ATM but convertible bonds (CB) too. Still has dry powder of $9bn from ATM and $18bn from CB based on the 21/21 Plan

$MARA - copied the MSTR playbook by issuing $1.85bn worth of CB since the elections. Bought $550M worth of BTC from Nov 30 to Dec 10. Still have $450M left to buy BTC.

$RIOT - followed same strategy, just announced that they raised $525M worth of CB and will use it to purchase BTC.

$SMLR - not a mining company but it pivoted to a BTC treasury strategy, they are waaay smaller and acquired $30M of BTC from Nov 24 to Dec 4 with ATM.

Metaplanet - a Japanese company that is copying Microstrategy. They are very small and hold just above $100M of BTC.

Other mining companies ? - MARA and RIOT strategy could push other miners to follow the same playbook, for example Hut 8 or CleanSpark, which both hold around $1bn worth of BTC. Hut 8 announced an ATM a week ago and wrote that they don't exclude "the purchase of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset" among the uses of the proceeds of the sales. Some people are speculating that CleanSpark will issue a CB too.