$500M mcap and $2bn FDV for $WAL seems a bit rich to me, I would be surprised if we don't see it down at least -30% to -50% from here in the coming weeks/months

I have a short open but keeping a lot of room to add if it pumps again first

You're down -25% vs gold if you bought $BTC 4 years ago

Saylor bought $2bn worth of $BTC last week

- $700M coming from the STRF issuance
- $1.2bn coming from the $MSTR ATM

This confirms he is comfortable using the ATM when the MSTR premium is above 1.8. The lower the MSTR/BTC ratio, the less likely he is to use this (and buy BTC)

I thought the reaction of the market would be way more bearish after seeing that he bought $2bn and BTC went down anyway, but so far no reaction

$GUN just listed

$60M mcap
$1bn FDV

You probably don't want to be short this thing too soon

Maybe even squeeze it up first...

I am trying a short on $IP with the hope that $5 is now a resistance and that this goes back down below $4 and potentially way lower

The invalidation is clear and not far, which provides a good r/r

Next step for Strategy should be to announce a $21bn ATM for $STRF too after STRK

One interesting thing to notice is that they are limited in capacity on the $STRK ATM by the very low daily trading volume (~$30M) on STRK.

But yesterday the $STRF contract had $200M volume, potentially signaling that there will be more room to use the ATM on that product.

How many coins are artificially maintained at a large market cap ?

$ACT dumped in a few minutes from $200M MC to $100M yesterday, and is now still bleeding down to $60M

- The top chart is $MSTR

- The bottom chart is $MARA, the largest BTC miner

Crypto miners are destined to underperform BTC, while MSTR has created a machine that is designed to outperform BTC

(It does not mean that it will necessarily work, but it is designed this way)

$COIN did not outperform $BTC

Maybe there's a play at the range lows of this chart here, but BTC looks like a safer long-term bet

If I trust the market to figure out what the result of these tariffs is, the reaction of $BTC is definitely not THAT bad.

We're literally at the same price as 2 days ago, without making new local lows

Maybe the market will need more time to resolve lower, maybe there's an 'artificial relative strength' vs SPX because of Saylor and GME buying, or maybe it's really just not that bad for $BTC.

GM bitcoin relative strength enjoyoors

Long $BTC / short crap remains the best trade right now in my opinion

$IP short doing well, hoping to ride this to $3, but I'll cut if strength comes back

$VIX at almost 40 after the China tariff retaliation announcement

Last spike above 30 was on the Aug 5 crash

No but seriously, wtf ?

One of the explanations for the BTC relative strength could be that Saylor and GME bought last week, but I don't think that was enough to get a green weekly candle on BTC while $SPX is down -10%

$GME - we have no idea how exactly they plan to operate on their BTC purchases, maybe they bought $1.5bn with all the cash they got from the convertible, maybe they are doing it more slowly

$MSTR - the only way they could have bought this week is through the ATM. During the previous 2 weeks they bought $600M and then $1.2bn through the ATM, and the MSTR premium has been stable, so my guess is they probably bought around $1bn again. But not substantially more than that.

This would mean $1.5bn + $1bn of buying pressure from these 2 actors, not enough to explain such a strong BTC relative strength imo

The bear case would be : GME actually bought even more than that with their cash reserves + Saylor bought closer to $2n + $MARA bought too... but this sounds unlikely to me.

Despite the overall depressing price action, there were a few good trades to take in March, mostly news-driven :

- Max long $ADA $XRP $SOL on the Sunday crypto reserve tweet. Incredible trade that you could size up if you were early enough

- Long FARTCOIN around $200M-$250M mcap : huge discrepancy between small mcap and high mindshare + volume. 2x-3x trade in two weeks.

- Short $HYPE / long JELLYJELLY on the HLP exploit news.

- Long $TON on the Pavel Durov release news, and remain long for two weeks after that

- Long $BERA into the PoL launch + close or short on the 3rd tap of its deadly $9 resistance

- Long $MOVE on the news that they will 'reinject' (kek) $38M into the chart. +30% pump in a few hours.

- Short $HYPE from $20 at the beginning of the month with the thesis that all catalysts were behind, and that there was a huge amount of uPnL still hiding in a $20bn FDV coin in an extremely weak market.

- Short some of the huge short squeezes once they look exhausted : $MAVIA $AUCTION

- Short the Binance memecoins : MUBARAK above $150M mcap, $TUT above $50M mcap, BROCCOLI after each news pump

- Remain structurally short ETHBTC during the whole month

- Remain structurally short altcoins vs BTC during the whole month

- Remain structurally short the AI agent coins during the whole month

We're approaching $1bn in liquidations in 24h

I did not cover many of my alt hedge shorts, but added a lot to my $BTC long from $82k to $77k