Next step for Strategy should be to announce a $21bn ATM for $STRF too after STRK
One interesting thing to notice is that they are limited in capacity on the $STRK ATM by the very low daily trading volume (~$30M) on STRK.
But yesterday the $STRF contract had $200M volume, potentially signaling that there will be more room to use the ATM on that product.
One interesting thing to notice is that they are limited in capacity on the $STRK ATM by the very low daily trading volume (~$30M) on STRK.
But yesterday the $STRF contract had $200M volume, potentially signaling that there will be more room to use the ATM on that product.
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If I trust the market to figure out what the result of these tariffs is, the reaction of $BTC is definitely not THAT bad.
We're literally at the same price as 2 days ago, without making new local lows
We're literally at the same price as 2 days ago, without making new local lows
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Crypto Narratives
If I trust the market to figure out what the result of these tariffs is, the reaction of $BTC is definitely not THAT bad. We're literally at the same price as 2 days ago, without making new local lows
Maybe the market will need more time to resolve lower, maybe there's an 'artificial relative strength' vs SPX because of Saylor and GME buying, or maybe it's really just not that bad for $BTC.
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Long $BTC / short crap remains the best trade right now in my opinion
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Crypto Narratives
I am trying a short on $IP with the hope that $5 is now a resistance and that this goes back down below $4 and potentially way lower The invalidation is clear and not far, which provides a good r/r
$IP short doing well, hoping to ride this to $3, but I'll cut if strength comes back
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One of the explanations for the BTC relative strength could be that Saylor and GME bought last week, but I don't think that was enough to get a green weekly candle on BTC while $SPX is down -10%
$GME - we have no idea how exactly they plan to operate on their BTC purchases, maybe they bought $1.5bn with all the cash they got from the convertible, maybe they are doing it more slowly
$MSTR - the only way they could have bought this week is through the ATM. During the previous 2 weeks they bought $600M and then $1.2bn through the ATM, and the MSTR premium has been stable, so my guess is they probably bought around $1bn again. But not substantially more than that.
This would mean $1.5bn + $1bn of buying pressure from these 2 actors, not enough to explain such a strong BTC relative strength imo
The bear case would be : GME actually bought even more than that with their cash reserves + Saylor bought closer to $2n + $MARA bought too... but this sounds unlikely to me.
$GME - we have no idea how exactly they plan to operate on their BTC purchases, maybe they bought $1.5bn with all the cash they got from the convertible, maybe they are doing it more slowly
$MSTR - the only way they could have bought this week is through the ATM. During the previous 2 weeks they bought $600M and then $1.2bn through the ATM, and the MSTR premium has been stable, so my guess is they probably bought around $1bn again. But not substantially more than that.
This would mean $1.5bn + $1bn of buying pressure from these 2 actors, not enough to explain such a strong BTC relative strength imo
The bear case would be : GME actually bought even more than that with their cash reserves + Saylor bought closer to $2n + $MARA bought too... but this sounds unlikely to me.
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Despite the overall depressing price action, there were a few good trades to take in March, mostly news-driven :
- Max long $ADA $XRP $SOL on the Sunday crypto reserve tweet. Incredible trade that you could size up if you were early enough
- Long FARTCOIN around $200M-$250M mcap : huge discrepancy between small mcap and high mindshare + volume. 2x-3x trade in two weeks.
- Short $HYPE / long JELLYJELLY on the HLP exploit news.
- Long $TON on the Pavel Durov release news, and remain long for two weeks after that
- Long $BERA into the PoL launch + close or short on the 3rd tap of its deadly $9 resistance
- Long $MOVE on the news that they will 'reinject' (kek) $38M into the chart. +30% pump in a few hours.
- Short $HYPE from $20 at the beginning of the month with the thesis that all catalysts were behind, and that there was a huge amount of uPnL still hiding in a $20bn FDV coin in an extremely weak market.
- Short some of the huge short squeezes once they look exhausted : $MAVIA $AUCTION
- Short the Binance memecoins : MUBARAK above $150M mcap, $TUT above $50M mcap, BROCCOLI after each news pump
- Remain structurally short ETHBTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short altcoins vs BTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short the AI agent coins during the whole month
- Max long $ADA $XRP $SOL on the Sunday crypto reserve tweet. Incredible trade that you could size up if you were early enough
- Long FARTCOIN around $200M-$250M mcap : huge discrepancy between small mcap and high mindshare + volume. 2x-3x trade in two weeks.
- Short $HYPE / long JELLYJELLY on the HLP exploit news.
- Long $TON on the Pavel Durov release news, and remain long for two weeks after that
- Long $BERA into the PoL launch + close or short on the 3rd tap of its deadly $9 resistance
- Long $MOVE on the news that they will 'reinject' (kek) $38M into the chart. +30% pump in a few hours.
- Short $HYPE from $20 at the beginning of the month with the thesis that all catalysts were behind, and that there was a huge amount of uPnL still hiding in a $20bn FDV coin in an extremely weak market.
- Short some of the huge short squeezes once they look exhausted : $MAVIA $AUCTION
- Short the Binance memecoins : MUBARAK above $150M mcap, $TUT above $50M mcap, BROCCOLI after each news pump
- Remain structurally short ETHBTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short altcoins vs BTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short the AI agent coins during the whole month
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The $74k-75k is likely to be a local bottom, I deployed more as we went there, and will bid it again (with higher risk but tight stop) if we revisit it.
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Crypto Narratives
The $74k-75k is likely to be a local bottom, I deployed more as we went there, and will bid it again (with higher risk but tight stop) if we revisit it.
My reasoning is :
- I believe there is a lot of cash ready to buy dips on $BTC, and buyers tend to show up whenever we make news lows. The type of buyers vs 2021 has changed, we don't really seem to get huge crashes on BTC anymore, so it's not as easy as 'I am just waiting for the liquidation cascade to buy'.
- Most people would want to buy in the $68k-$72k region which would feel much safer and a better r/r if we got it, but that's precisely why I am not too convinced we'll get it.
- BTC remains very strong vs equities during this time of great uncertainty. Despite this weekend dump, there is still relative strength on BTC vs tradfi. And Saylor did not post the orange dot yesterday, so maybe he did not buy anything last week (which would be bullish).
- On top of that, altcoins have been destroyed, $ETH tapped $1400, and even $XRP finally broke its $2 support. It feels like a lot of pain has been inflicted to altcoins holders, maybe enough for a local bottom.
I don't necessarily expect this to be a pico-bottom, but rather a local bottom for a few days/weeks, just like $77k in March. Obviously it's kind of stupid to think about crypto in a vacuum, so if tradfi keeps dying, there will be more pain in crypto, but as we've seen, the price can remain resilient even when the SPX dumps hard.
Note that I absolutely did NOT bet the farm on this being a bottom, I don't want to take highly levered trades here, and if we end up dumping further, I will still be able to buy more on the way to $70k and below. Don't try to be a hero, minimizing losses is the most important thing to do in this market environment.
- I believe there is a lot of cash ready to buy dips on $BTC, and buyers tend to show up whenever we make news lows. The type of buyers vs 2021 has changed, we don't really seem to get huge crashes on BTC anymore, so it's not as easy as 'I am just waiting for the liquidation cascade to buy'.
- Most people would want to buy in the $68k-$72k region which would feel much safer and a better r/r if we got it, but that's precisely why I am not too convinced we'll get it.
- BTC remains very strong vs equities during this time of great uncertainty. Despite this weekend dump, there is still relative strength on BTC vs tradfi. And Saylor did not post the orange dot yesterday, so maybe he did not buy anything last week (which would be bullish).
- On top of that, altcoins have been destroyed, $ETH tapped $1400, and even $XRP finally broke its $2 support. It feels like a lot of pain has been inflicted to altcoins holders, maybe enough for a local bottom.
I don't necessarily expect this to be a pico-bottom, but rather a local bottom for a few days/weeks, just like $77k in March. Obviously it's kind of stupid to think about crypto in a vacuum, so if tradfi keeps dying, there will be more pain in crypto, but as we've seen, the price can remain resilient even when the SPX dumps hard.
Note that I absolutely did NOT bet the farm on this being a bottom, I don't want to take highly levered trades here, and if we end up dumping further, I will still be able to buy more on the way to $70k and below. Don't try to be a hero, minimizing losses is the most important thing to do in this market environment.
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I remain structurally long $BTC / short alts until further notice, but that is a trade that you take some profits on whenever you think we are close to a local bottom
And then you can add to it again after the bounce
And then you can add to it again after the bounce
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