Recap of the narratives of the week :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-7

Narratives of the past week :

- $BTC green candle : breakout of the $38k resistance and went straight to $44k with BTC.D new yearly top at 55%

- Ordinals pumped massively : 3X for $ORDI in a week. The other BTC beta coin $STX pumped a lot too.

- Memecoins have been hot : $DOGE (+15%) $BONK (+150%) $PEPE (+40%) $SHIB $MEME

- New coins gud : $BIGTIME (+170%) $TIA (+57%) $BEAM $MEME $TAO $SEI $NTRN

- $ETH reached again its local bottom against BTC (0.051) before strongly bouncing today, alongside its beta coins ($OP was the strongest)

- Other noticeable strong moves : $AVAX $CFX $LUNC & Pudgy Penguins in NFTs

List of coins that are either in price discovery or very close to :

$TIA
$JTO
$SHRAP
$BONK
$PRIME
$CROWN
$SEI
$TAO
$PAAL
$KAS
$MEME
$NTRN
$AXL
$INJ
$PYTH
$ORDI

A list of traders you should follow on Twitter :

https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1733072528594043141

Good tip that I heard a few weeks ago in a DonAlt stream :

He said that usually, when a coin climbs into the top 100, you can dump it once it reaches the top 10.

I did not have time to check how true this was, but I wrote down this piece of advice.

It could be useful

Short $JTO from $4 :

- $4 was a good TP place for longs... ie good entry for short ?
- Initial v optimistic target for longs was $5, so shorting at 80% of that target looked okay, I can even add if it goes higher
- Acts as a hedge for my alt longs while the market is showing froth
- FDV is a meme but 2X higher than $LDO is a joke

I like to have several good reasons for a short, and taking shorts on high FDV coins greatly reduces the risk even if the trade goes horrendously wrong

Is this a trade that keeps on giving ?

$SOL -> $AVAX rotation

The r/r of shorting at $3.2-$3.3 (at support) is not that good anymore compared to >$4 btw

TP'd 25%, and I will keep the trade open mostly as a hedge.

More generally, I almost never take naked shorts but only hedge shorts, so if they go against me, I am usually up on my longs too.

This is why I agree with the stance "don't try to short in a bull run", but rather in the sense of : "don't be net short".

Shorting selected altcoins against longs is not particularly dangerous.

Some Telegram-exclusive on-chain "alpha" :

- Cobie bought 2 days ago a small bag of $DOG, the token related to "The Doge NFT project" (on his public wallet)

- A wallet that I think is related to GCR bought $RBX today (he usually only holds during a few days before getting out. And it's very small size so I don't know... maybe an intern lol ? It has always been quite hard to track GCR on-chain, and not at all a surefire road to profits fyi !)

The current sentiment on the TL is more and more shifting to :

- "Not a bad place to TP if you are up a lot"
- "Nodoby would have expected $44k so early, be more defensive"
- "If everyone's plan is to sell at $48k, it probably won't happen so easily"

Just noticing.

It is definitely true that you shouldn't crank up the risk on perps here after almost 2 months of up only.

One thing you should always do is imagine two rather extreme scenarios, both bullish and bearish :

In what situation are you going to suffer more ?
Can you stomach a dump back to $30k in 3 days ?
Are you going to get mad if we get to $50k next week ?

You must :
1. know where *your* personal "max pain" situation is
2. be absolutely certain that you won't get wiped out if the market does something extreme, one way or another

Post-flush strong coins :

$INJ
$AVAX
$TIA
$OP
$IMX
$SNX

Some of the usual suspects are in this list.

AVAX and TIA now definitely join my winner coin bucket consisting of [SOL, INJ, LINK, RUNE]

"Healthy reset" of altcoin funding rates

$ARB / $OP printing a new all time low

OP FDV getting closer and closer to ARB FDV

Rules for short selling :

- I only use them as hedge trades against my longs => when I am unsure of the market direction or want to play it safer, instead of closing the longs, I increase the size of the shorts

- I short a basket of altcoins, which massively reduces the risk that my losses on shorts get too large => basically what this means is that you won't get rekt by only shorting one alt that pumps like $APT in January, because the risk is diluted

- I don't short coins that are "too small" : a $300M market cap coin can go 20x, or scam pump 4x in a few days, this is too risky

- I mostly target old coins that still have a very large market cap but are expected to underperform (BCH, LTC, XLM, XRP, ZEC, VET, HBAR, ADA, ALGO) and also unjustifiably high FDV coins (WLD, APT, SUI... riskier plays).

- I mostly trade on cross margin, because I think about these shorts as an aggregate, and I certainly don't want to manage each trade individually with their own liquidation price, etc.

If you follow these rules, you can short in a bullish environment, without taking any significant risk. However, for most people, it is probably way easier to just avoid the red button, which will simplify the trading process.

I have the feeling that there is a lot of confusion regarding the potential ETF "sell the news"

From what I see, there are 2 important dates :

1. ETF approval (Jan 5-10 ?)
2. ETF launch (later)

I don't know exactly how long it will take for the ETF to launch once it is approved, but I think something like 2 months.

2 dates means 2 potential catalysts, and 2 potential "sell the news" events.

On ETF approval, we will definitely have a green candle in the first 15 minutes, but what happens next is unsure.

Remember that "sell the news" only happens when there is an uptrend leading to the event.

I think that it is very likely that we sell off during something like 2-3 weeks after ETF approval, because there is room to sell off ($28k -> $42k uptrend, at least for now... unless we go way lower even before January, which does not seem likely imo).

But then if we have a date for the ETF launch and it is around 2-3 months later, then this could potentially act as a new positive catalyst.

If this happens and we go up before the ETF launch, then the post-launch market reaction will depend on the magnitude of the ETF flows, which I think might be disappointing, at least in the first few days.

[If ETF is not approved, we nuke bad, obviously, remember that it is not strictly impossible neither]

Most of the top gaming tokens [ $AXS $ILV $RON $BEAM $GALA] have FDVs in the $1bn-$2bn range

$IMX FDV : $4bn
$BIGTIME FDV : $3.5bn

It seems justified for $IMX, but absolutely not for $BIGTIME

I expect $BIGTIME to end up in the same FDV range as the other ones mentioned

My conviction on this is very high but it is not actionable alpha since the discrepancy could disappear in 2 weeks or only during the next bear market

Recap of the narratives of the week :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-14

Narratives of the week :

- $BTC top at $44K and then first serious dip since October

- Strong selected coins post-dip : $INJ $TIA $AVAX

- $BONK up another 2x this week after CB + Binance listing ; "main dog coin on X chain" narrative getting steam => $TOSHI

- Old alt L1s showing strength : $ADA $DOT $ATOM $ICP

- $JTO airdrop : $2 -> $4.4 at top, huge airdrop created a wealth effect for the whole Solana ecosystem with most coins flying

- AI coins : $FET $RNDR $AKT

- Gaming : $IMX $BEAM $GOG $MYRIA

- Cosmos ecosystem : $ATOM $OSMO $EVMOS $JUNO $NTRN

- Ordinals / BRC-20 related coins : $SATS $MUBI $RATS $BSSB

Compilation of alpha tweets :
https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1735743504712679772

There is an impersonator on Telegram => @ thedefivillain

Block him if he talks to you

More generally : always be careful if someone DMs you with a link... or asks for money obviously... DON'T trust strangers on the Internet, kids

BRC-20 / Ordinal-related coins = risky to fade

Completely new sector emerging, growing on the back of the king of our whole Internet money market ($BTC), I can see this snowballing into something huge

My main bags so far have been $ORDI and $MUBI because they have been easily accessible + somewhat leading

There's an edge in being in the BRC-20 trenches, immense r/r in the small new things

[Many people (like me) are too lazy to go buy them, and might buy after they 10x'd and are easier to access...]