Post-flush strong coins :

$INJ
$AVAX
$TIA
$OP
$IMX
$SNX

Some of the usual suspects are in this list.

AVAX and TIA now definitely join my winner coin bucket consisting of [SOL, INJ, LINK, RUNE]

"Healthy reset" of altcoin funding rates

$ARB / $OP printing a new all time low

OP FDV getting closer and closer to ARB FDV

Rules for short selling :

- I only use them as hedge trades against my longs => when I am unsure of the market direction or want to play it safer, instead of closing the longs, I increase the size of the shorts

- I short a basket of altcoins, which massively reduces the risk that my losses on shorts get too large => basically what this means is that you won't get rekt by only shorting one alt that pumps like $APT in January, because the risk is diluted

- I don't short coins that are "too small" : a $300M market cap coin can go 20x, or scam pump 4x in a few days, this is too risky

- I mostly target old coins that still have a very large market cap but are expected to underperform (BCH, LTC, XLM, XRP, ZEC, VET, HBAR, ADA, ALGO) and also unjustifiably high FDV coins (WLD, APT, SUI... riskier plays).

- I mostly trade on cross margin, because I think about these shorts as an aggregate, and I certainly don't want to manage each trade individually with their own liquidation price, etc.

If you follow these rules, you can short in a bullish environment, without taking any significant risk. However, for most people, it is probably way easier to just avoid the red button, which will simplify the trading process.

I have the feeling that there is a lot of confusion regarding the potential ETF "sell the news"

From what I see, there are 2 important dates :

1. ETF approval (Jan 5-10 ?)
2. ETF launch (later)

I don't know exactly how long it will take for the ETF to launch once it is approved, but I think something like 2 months.

2 dates means 2 potential catalysts, and 2 potential "sell the news" events.

On ETF approval, we will definitely have a green candle in the first 15 minutes, but what happens next is unsure.

Remember that "sell the news" only happens when there is an uptrend leading to the event.

I think that it is very likely that we sell off during something like 2-3 weeks after ETF approval, because there is room to sell off ($28k -> $42k uptrend, at least for now... unless we go way lower even before January, which does not seem likely imo).

But then if we have a date for the ETF launch and it is around 2-3 months later, then this could potentially act as a new positive catalyst.

If this happens and we go up before the ETF launch, then the post-launch market reaction will depend on the magnitude of the ETF flows, which I think might be disappointing, at least in the first few days.

[If ETF is not approved, we nuke bad, obviously, remember that it is not strictly impossible neither]

Most of the top gaming tokens [ $AXS $ILV $RON $BEAM $GALA] have FDVs in the $1bn-$2bn range

$IMX FDV : $4bn
$BIGTIME FDV : $3.5bn

It seems justified for $IMX, but absolutely not for $BIGTIME

I expect $BIGTIME to end up in the same FDV range as the other ones mentioned

My conviction on this is very high but it is not actionable alpha since the discrepancy could disappear in 2 weeks or only during the next bear market

Recap of the narratives of the week :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-14

Narratives of the week :

- $BTC top at $44K and then first serious dip since October

- Strong selected coins post-dip : $INJ $TIA $AVAX

- $BONK up another 2x this week after CB + Binance listing ; "main dog coin on X chain" narrative getting steam => $TOSHI

- Old alt L1s showing strength : $ADA $DOT $ATOM $ICP

- $JTO airdrop : $2 -> $4.4 at top, huge airdrop created a wealth effect for the whole Solana ecosystem with most coins flying

- AI coins : $FET $RNDR $AKT

- Gaming : $IMX $BEAM $GOG $MYRIA

- Cosmos ecosystem : $ATOM $OSMO $EVMOS $JUNO $NTRN

- Ordinals / BRC-20 related coins : $SATS $MUBI $RATS $BSSB

Compilation of alpha tweets :
https://twitter.com/thedefivillain/status/1735743504712679772

There is an impersonator on Telegram => @ thedefivillain

Block him if he talks to you

More generally : always be careful if someone DMs you with a link... or asks for money obviously... DON'T trust strangers on the Internet, kids

BRC-20 / Ordinal-related coins = risky to fade

Completely new sector emerging, growing on the back of the king of our whole Internet money market ($BTC), I can see this snowballing into something huge

My main bags so far have been $ORDI and $MUBI because they have been easily accessible + somewhat leading

There's an edge in being in the BRC-20 trenches, immense r/r in the small new things

[Many people (like me) are too lazy to go buy them, and might buy after they 10x'd and are easier to access...]

Charts of a few strong coins

Can you see how $INJ is the one that barely dumped while most had a dip during the last 2 days ?

Such a coin usually pumps even stronger when/if the market bounces

And this is exactly what happened : $INJ new ATH and among the best performers today

Write this lesson down somewhere !

This might me astrology but I like when I find these kinds of patterns so I share it :

ETHBTC pumped twice in Nov-Dec, each time in very quick and brutal moves

After these 2 pumps, we can see that a basket of ETH beta coins outperformed $ETH during a few days (before dumping)

Take some time to write down the most obvious 10x plays of 2023

Try to find the similarities between them

Who knows, you might end up with a list of important lessons in crypto trading that will help you to find the next 10x trades of 2024

Recap of the week + good tweets :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-21

Narratives of the week :

- Winners keep winning : $SOL new top at $95, $AVAX $INJ and $TIA all reached new yearly highs this week

- $SEI went up +60%, and "EVM parallelization" suddenly becomes an important theme

- $WLD short squeeze from $2.7 to $4.6 after market maker contract change. The current FDV is $36bn but the float only 1%. The other hated coin rally of the week was $ICP (2x before dump)

- Binance and Coinbase listed $BONK, and it reached $2bn market cap before finally dumping.
We are in the middle of memecoin mania on most chains, but mainly Solana : $WIF and $COQ (Avax) MC went above $200M

Also noticeable :
- $NEAR is up +50% (DA + AI narrative ?)
- Depin narrative is hot : $HNT $IOTX $STORJ $LPT $FIL
- Cosmos coins are strong : $AXL $OSMO $EVMOS

Clean L1 -> ETH ecosystem rotation

Each time this thing happened during the last 2 months, it was not a sustained rally

Will this time be different ?

My guess is it probably won't be different, but let's see

This might be relevant now that ETHBTC pumped again !

This looks like a perfect spot to top on ETHBTC to respect the trendline ?

Another lesson of this chart is that a resistance tested 4 times is more likely to break... but this breakdown ended up being a trap

It would be better for $ETH to break the trendline obviously

$ARB / $OP chart update

OP FDV > ARB FDV now

> Open your CEX account
> Buy the top-performer
> Profit

In this type of environment, you are rewarded for doing very unsophisticated things