Saylor recently said that they would probably get rid of convertible bonds in their capital structure

This means that $STRF will sit on top of the capital stack, backed by their entire $BTC treasury

Send STRF to $200

We are in the early days of the institutionalization of $BTC

So much capital is going to get siphoned into it

I am still in buy the dip mode

Well, even if $PUMP ends up going to $9bn (or more), the opportunity cost is pretty bad right now

We've seen companies announce $TAO and $FET treasuries WEEKS ago when ETH was 40% lower

These announcements are not useful top signals at all

Stupid stuff going on with actual crypto prices is a much better signal to be cautious

$SBET, $BMNR and ETFs are buying enormous amounts of $ETH

I think we keep running on this reflexive loop for some time, maybe to a new $ETH ATH, or even more

But once the momentum will stall, the whole structure will be much more fragile than BTC. Bitcoin has a far stronger holder base.

The 80k $BTC have now all been transferred to Galaxy Digital :

And they are still holding 48k $BTC

That's a significant overhang that the market will have to digest before BTC can push higher

A fun fact about the treasury companies is that the less logical place for the premium to NAV to trade at is 1

- Either the company is doomed and will end up collapsing, in which case it should trade at a strict discount to NAV

- Or it won't collapse, in which case it will be able to generate yield on its underlying asset, which means it should trade at a strict premium

Hard to see us top here

Too much momentum

Too much energy still has to be released

Nice to see a new episode of the Lads

I found one sentence of Jordi particularly interesting with regards to the current market :

"There is too much momentum right now.
The rate of increase can't be slowed down that fast where we just suddenly collapse.
It feels inevitable that we are going higher just because of the rate of acceleration."

(Higher before lower)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xq6Lk1IQpxc

This was a good idea apparently

When alts run, they really run, and $ETH being strong is the main bull case for altcoins

This is truly a crazy chart designed to make the holders of this asset become completely insane

The higher we pump, the more careful you should be

But I don't see many reasons to get too defensive already

I expect we still have higher to go from here

Schelling point

This is how the alt treasury company scheme works :

> Company ABC trades on Nasdaq at $10M mcap, with a share price of $10
> The company "raises" $100M from investors/VCs at its current $10 mkt price
> These investors hold almost all of the company as a consequence
> The company acquires $100M of an altcoin to become a treasury company (most scammy scenario is when the investors are the ones "selling" their locked tokens to the company)
> mNAV is close to 1x when this deal is done privately
> The deal is announced publicly
> Retail can start aping into the shares of this company
> The share price quickly goes from $10 to $30 because of the announcement
> All early investors are sitting in a risk-free entry at $10 (risk-free because it's almost backed 1-to-1 by the altcoin treasury)
> The next wave of retail starts buying at $30 minimum, ie 3x mNAV+
> 3 months later, the shares of the initial investors are unlocked, and the most mercenary ones will dump ruthlessly, and repeat the scheme with as many companies as possible

Some people have understood that it's a guaranteed-profit loop that they can rinse and repeat as long as the market still pumps the new altcoin treasury names.

There are a lot of opportunities in the crypto treasury plays but you must be aware of this dynamic going on against you if you are the retail that does not have access to the private deals. Also be aware that this scheme can be used to get rid of locked altcoins in some cases.

This is the largest move up we've had on ETHBTC since the Merge in September 2022

One of the main reasons for me to remain bullish is to think about how I would feel if I was shorting alts here

I would be underwater and sweating

That $117k level is heavily defended on $BTC

I'd like to see a higher high + higher low on LTF now

The 45k BTC are still sitting in Galaxy Digital wallets and the stack is not decreasing, not sure if these will have to be sold or not

Risk-on szn should not be over yet

On this dip, does it feel like people are scared and looking to reduce their risk, or are they boldly "buying the dip in a bull run" ?

I'd say the former

Which is better to see if you have a bullish bias