Theorizing about a cycle top on $ETH is a bit retarded given it just tapped the same resistance for the 4th time in 18 months

Does it mean the cycle topped 4 times ?

Or does it mean the cycle models are outdated...

BTC treasury companies should trade at a mNAV premium strictly larger than 1x by design

Altcoin treasury companies should trade around 1x mNAV

Depending on your opinion on the long-term CAGR of $ETH, the ETH treasury companies can fall in either of these two categories.

That bottom on $BTC is quite ugly, I am not sure I trust it

It also happened on a Saturday, which is quite rare for a "bottom"

The $MSTR mNAV premium bottomed around 1.3x when the BTC ETFs launched because "muh ETFs should compress the premium"

Just for the mNAV to pump to 3x in two months

Don't bury the treasury companies too quickly because of whatever your altcoin ponzinomics mental models are

If there is enough strength in the underlying asset, these premia will rise again

I am talking specifically about $BTC and $ETH here.

(The altcoin treasury companies outside of majors are mostly irrelevant and don't take off, despite CT freaking about them)

Arguments in favor of the bottom being in are :

- The equities market has been chilling since CME open, grinding up gradually

- CB discount disappeared in favor of a small premium

- The fact that this WE bottom on BTC was messy means that most people did not get it with size, I suspect there is a lot of dry powder still ready to buy

My base case is that most alts are cooked for a few weeks while $BTC and $ETH will range

The higher we go, the more shorts I'll add on weak alts

You want to be short-biased against alts that are making lower highs

And long-biased against alts that are making higher highs

KISS

July recap :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/july-2025-recap-narratives-best-performers

$STRC is now trading at $97 and its daily trading volume is around 5x larger than $STRK or $STRF

It confirms what Saylor said about $STRC being a killer product which attracts significant demand

Bullish

Main narratives of July were :

- $BTC broke ATH, reached $123k, then stalled. 80k BTC whale sold
- $ETH instit (tco + ETFs) bidding hard, $2500 -> $3900
- New cycle highs on $XRP at $3.65 and dinos pump (XLM, HBAR)
- Memes strength : $PENGU $SPX $BONK $DOGE
- "DAT summer" : tco announced for several alts, most successful one is $ENA
- A few squeezes : $ZORA $SPK
- Underwhelming PA on $PUMP : down to almost -50% from ICO price at bottom

Call them stupid how many times you want, but $BTC treasury companies are simply one of the most powerful form of corporate structure that ever existed for growth

Metaplanet grew from $10M to $5bn market cap in 18 months by switching to this new model

Do you realize how hard it is for a company to get this kind of growth ?

Do you also realize that this growth is already "secured" by holding a giant stack of $BTC (=NAV).

You don't get rewarded on the public market for doing hard stuff

BTC miner companies are struggling and permanently underperforming BTC when they could have just followed the Saylor playbook for years and be 10 times larger and healthier now

Coinbase is now doing a $2bn convertible bond, probably to fund some purchase, and then they have to hope that this purchase will provide an ROI over the years

But the truth is that the road they are on is much harder than $MSTR. Good luck finding investments that can get you the same ROI as $BTC with the same level of consistency.

$COIN vs $BTC is in a range since 2022. At some point the ratio will probably break down, as there is no guarantee that COIN is able to keep up with BTC CAGR.

While $MSTR is literally designed to outperform BTC CAGR on a long timeframe.

Being anchored to one of the most powerful financial assets on earth, and denominating your growth in BTC terms, is a cheat code for outperformance if you trust bitcoin enough.

There is way too much "concern" in this market for $BTC to have a meaningful drawdown from here

Is this the updated version of the [short alts / long BTC] trade ? (adding ETH into the long side)

This is your new risk-on signal

The fact that there can be so wild swings in the market share of the meme launchpad market should imply a discount on their valuations

There is no moat in these businesses

$IBIT / $QQQ is up a measly 20% from its March 2024 highs and mfers here calling for a multi-year top on BTC lmao

Not gonna happen

Someone has been TWAP buying $3M worth of $MYX on Bitget for 3 hours and it stopped around 30 minutes ago

Now the same entity (I suppose?) has filled the orderbook with $600k on the bid side

I guess their plan is to make the perp shorts bleed hard for hours again

And then what are they going to do with their $3M worth of MYX tokens ?