July recap :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/july-2025-recap-narratives-best-performers

$STRC is now trading at $97 and its daily trading volume is around 5x larger than $STRK or $STRF

It confirms what Saylor said about $STRC being a killer product which attracts significant demand

Bullish

Main narratives of July were :

- $BTC broke ATH, reached $123k, then stalled. 80k BTC whale sold
- $ETH instit (tco + ETFs) bidding hard, $2500 -> $3900
- New cycle highs on $XRP at $3.65 and dinos pump (XLM, HBAR)
- Memes strength : $PENGU $SPX $BONK $DOGE
- "DAT summer" : tco announced for several alts, most successful one is $ENA
- A few squeezes : $ZORA $SPK
- Underwhelming PA on $PUMP : down to almost -50% from ICO price at bottom

Call them stupid how many times you want, but $BTC treasury companies are simply one of the most powerful form of corporate structure that ever existed for growth

Metaplanet grew from $10M to $5bn market cap in 18 months by switching to this new model

Do you realize how hard it is for a company to get this kind of growth ?

Do you also realize that this growth is already "secured" by holding a giant stack of $BTC (=NAV).

You don't get rewarded on the public market for doing hard stuff

BTC miner companies are struggling and permanently underperforming BTC when they could have just followed the Saylor playbook for years and be 10 times larger and healthier now

Coinbase is now doing a $2bn convertible bond, probably to fund some purchase, and then they have to hope that this purchase will provide an ROI over the years

But the truth is that the road they are on is much harder than $MSTR. Good luck finding investments that can get you the same ROI as $BTC with the same level of consistency.

$COIN vs $BTC is in a range since 2022. At some point the ratio will probably break down, as there is no guarantee that COIN is able to keep up with BTC CAGR.

While $MSTR is literally designed to outperform BTC CAGR on a long timeframe.

Being anchored to one of the most powerful financial assets on earth, and denominating your growth in BTC terms, is a cheat code for outperformance if you trust bitcoin enough.

There is way too much "concern" in this market for $BTC to have a meaningful drawdown from here

Is this the updated version of the [short alts / long BTC] trade ? (adding ETH into the long side)

This is your new risk-on signal

The fact that there can be so wild swings in the market share of the meme launchpad market should imply a discount on their valuations

There is no moat in these businesses

$IBIT / $QQQ is up a measly 20% from its March 2024 highs and mfers here calling for a multi-year top on BTC lmao

Not gonna happen

Someone has been TWAP buying $3M worth of $MYX on Bitget for 3 hours and it stopped around 30 minutes ago

Now the same entity (I suppose?) has filled the orderbook with $600k on the bid side

I guess their plan is to make the perp shorts bleed hard for hours again

And then what are they going to do with their $3M worth of MYX tokens ?

The main hurdle for Saylor right now is that people don't realize how mispriced the preferred shares are

He wants to lever up but the market is slowing him down

But $STRF and $STRK will re-price higher, I have no doubt about it

Maybe $STRC, their "iPhone moment" according to Saylor, was the instrument needed for everyone to wake up

Floodgates open then

Just think about how many people would be interested in a 9% APR stablecoin issued by MSTR that is available through their brokerage accounts

Massive demand incoming

Recap of past 2 weeks :

- $BTC resisted to the 80k whale selling dump and the FOMC dump but suffered on the early month tradfi dump. Bottomed at $112k, before bouncing back to $117k

- $ETH is very strong and is outperforming BTC, thanks to huge inflows from ETH treasury companies and ETFs. Currently above $3900

- Several altcoin treasury companies announced, they always get frontrun and then the news is sold : $SUI $BNB $LTC $TON. $ENA remains strong and has been the most successful alt tco so far.

- $ZORA reached $1bn FDV after a 12x, and is now looking strong again post dip.

- After 3 weeks of underwhelming PA, $PUMP is progressively rising (up +50% from $2.3bn bottom) and reclaiming market share

- $MYX pumped 20x in 3 days with very negative funding rate : blatant crime

- Saylor IPO'd his new preferred share $STRC and used the $2.5bn proceeds to buy BTC. No more ATM on MSTR below 2.5x mNAV.

Hate it or love it, but you don't get bearish on $ETH when the $BMNR mNAV is expanding

It feels like we're repeating the BTC short squeeze move to $123K on $ETH now

(I am not saying that it'll mark a local top but rather that we are getting a lot of fuel from shorts getting liquidated here)

We're reaching price levels on $ETH where the drawdown risk is too large to feel comfy on any dip

And the upside is unclear to me, we could go to $4.5k, $6k, or more, I personally don't have conviction on price targets

I'll mostly react on what signs I get from the tradfi side (ETH tco + ETFs) as they are the ones determining our fate

The fact that $STRF was trading at $85 at some point is great evidence that the MSTR preferred stocks are very misunderstood, and mispriced.

They will go higher in price, Saylor will be able to issue more, he will buy more $BTC, the mNAV will increase, and $MSTR will outperform BTC

What the last earnings call suggested is that they are simply going to lever up with prefs, which is the best form of leverage they have discovered for a BTC treasury company

They have a lot of room to grow these prefs and increase their leverage ratio.