Crypto Narratives
Despite the early August dump, it was correct to expect the ETH treasury company mania to last for longer The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH We…
Long BTC+ETH / short alts is the trade I feel the safest in
I run it with a bullish skew (ie I am net long), I add a few alt longs on the ones I like, and I try to mostly target weak alts for shorts
I run it with a bullish skew (ie I am net long), I add a few alt longs on the ones I like, and I try to mostly target weak alts for shorts
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Different categories of good altcoin shorts :
- Old coin that is still very large in mcap, was hot several months ago but not anymore (RNDR)
- Coin that got recently crimed up until a squeeze climax (LAYER)
- High FDV low float large cap (WLD)
- High FDV low float mid cap (KAITO)
- Coin that recently pumped hard but momentum died (MOODENG)
- Coin that had an event-driven unsustainable vertical pump (HYPER)
- Coin that is selling some news (IP)
- Coin that was pushed up in a very hot narrative that is now dead (AI16Z)
- Old coin with low mindshare (MINA)
- New coin that pumped very hard immediately after TGE and now has gravity (M)
- Old coin that is still very large in mcap, was hot several months ago but not anymore (RNDR)
- Coin that got recently crimed up until a squeeze climax (LAYER)
- High FDV low float large cap (WLD)
- High FDV low float mid cap (KAITO)
- Coin that recently pumped hard but momentum died (MOODENG)
- Coin that had an event-driven unsustainable vertical pump (HYPER)
- Coin that is selling some news (IP)
- Coin that was pushed up in a very hot narrative that is now dead (AI16Z)
- Old coin with low mindshare (MINA)
- New coin that pumped very hard immediately after TGE and now has gravity (M)
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Cycle top this, cycle top that
Most altcoins are in a bear market RIGHT NOW, dawg
Did I choose dogshit alts as illustrations ? Yes
But is the crypto market mostly filled with dogshit alts ? Also yes
Most altcoins are in a bear market RIGHT NOW, dawg
Did I choose dogshit alts as illustrations ? Yes
But is the crypto market mostly filled with dogshit alts ? Also yes
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Crypto Narratives
Cycle top this, cycle top that Most altcoins are in a bear market RIGHT NOW, dawg Did I choose dogshit alts as illustrations ? Yes But is the crypto market mostly filled with dogshit alts ? Also yes
This is also a way to see that we are not in a risk-on season right now
It is just $ETH that is flying because of the ETH treasury companies buying
It is just $ETH that is flying because of the ETH treasury companies buying
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$BTC dipping doesn't make me raise an eyebrow
But $ETH ?
Damn, I am scared about a top anytime this thing goes down a few percent
ETH is up 2x in like one month, it can easily dump -30% and I wouldn't be certain it's a dip to buy and hold
While a -30% dump on BTC is literally the largest drawdown it's had this cycle (happened twice)
Two very different behaviors on BTC and ETH
That being said, I don't think $ETH has topped. Because I don't think the ETH treasury companies suddenly stop getting inflows, and there is still enough momentum to push the trade higher
But $ETH ?
Damn, I am scared about a top anytime this thing goes down a few percent
ETH is up 2x in like one month, it can easily dump -30% and I wouldn't be certain it's a dip to buy and hold
While a -30% dump on BTC is literally the largest drawdown it's had this cycle (happened twice)
Two very different behaviors on BTC and ETH
That being said, I don't think $ETH has topped. Because I don't think the ETH treasury companies suddenly stop getting inflows, and there is still enough momentum to push the trade higher
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That's looking good for $MNT (currently the strongest top 100 coin)
https://x.com/Defi_Maestro/status/1956192778935001568
https://x.com/Defi_Maestro/status/1956192778935001568
X (formerly Twitter)
Defi_Maestro ✺ (@Defi_Maestro) on X
TLDR for the @Mantle_Official AMA held last night:
Mantle L2
- Helen (Bybit Co-CEO) and Emily (Head of Bybit Spot and Byreal Co-founder) will be joining Mantle as Core Contributors
- Mantle L2 will be focusing on creating industry-grade rails for real-world…
Mantle L2
- Helen (Bybit Co-CEO) and Emily (Head of Bybit Spot and Byreal Co-founder) will be joining Mantle as Core Contributors
- Mantle L2 will be focusing on creating industry-grade rails for real-world…
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When the market is weak, $ETH underperforms altcoins (ie OTHERS/ETH goes up)
That is already what happened on the dump from 2 weeks ago
It's very different from OTHERS/BTC which tends to go down when the market goes down
That is already what happened on the dump from 2 weeks ago
It's very different from OTHERS/BTC which tends to go down when the market goes down
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Worst case scenario for $MSTR is that people never get interested in their preferred stocks and their price and volume do not increase
That would mean that Saylor is stuck and can't raise funds at very accretive terms, and he can't raise through ATM either because the mNAV is largely below 2.5x
It sounds unlikely though
The yield of the prefs is simply too good to be ignored, and it will get clearer and clearer as time goes by and as holders get paid their regular dividends
We have seen already what happens to the price of the preferred shares when dividends get paid
+20% in two weeks on $STRF and $STRK
With $STRC the payments are monthly, which is even better. People will love to get their 9% APR monthly div on a thing that is almost stable in price
The only thing required in the $MSTR trade right now is patience. mNAV could drop further but I am very confident that it will get back to 2.5x at least at some point again in the future
(Oh, and $STRK trading at ≈$100 is an absolute steal...)
That would mean that Saylor is stuck and can't raise funds at very accretive terms, and he can't raise through ATM either because the mNAV is largely below 2.5x
It sounds unlikely though
The yield of the prefs is simply too good to be ignored, and it will get clearer and clearer as time goes by and as holders get paid their regular dividends
We have seen already what happens to the price of the preferred shares when dividends get paid
+20% in two weeks on $STRF and $STRK
With $STRC the payments are monthly, which is even better. People will love to get their 9% APR monthly div on a thing that is almost stable in price
The only thing required in the $MSTR trade right now is patience. mNAV could drop further but I am very confident that it will get back to 2.5x at least at some point again in the future
(Oh, and $STRK trading at ≈$100 is an absolute steal...)
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Crypto Narratives
Turns out the coin trading at an unbelievably expensive FDV during the last cycle has indeed been an excellent short for years $FIL
There are a few coins that have had this behavior for years btw
$AXS
$AXS
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Crazy that it's become widely accepted to have "deployers" on launchpads who just spend all their day launching memecoins (scams) and who represent the "market share" that all the launchpads are fighting for to justify multi billion valuations 😐
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I am frustrated that I didn't de-risk enough when $ETH was flirting with previous ATH and 0.04 ETHBTC, especially given the fact that it under-performed altcoins heavily since then
I am long here but we're basically hoping that tradfi keeps buying ETH
The problem is that if we're wrong, the downside is much larger than on BTC
I am long here but we're basically hoping that tradfi keeps buying ETH
The problem is that if we're wrong, the downside is much larger than on BTC
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A bull case for $ETH here is that I'm still very bullish on $BTC and the ETF flows have recently been massive for ETH compared to BTC, so I don't think tradfi suddenly stops buying it
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Crypto Narratives
I am frustrated that I didn't de-risk enough when $ETH was flirting with previous ATH and 0.04 ETHBTC, especially given the fact that it under-performed altcoins heavily since then I am long here but we're basically hoping that tradfi keeps buying ETH The…
Why is the downside on ETH larger than on BTC, and why do I have more confidence in holding BTC ?
$BTC as SoV is a clear narrative with a clear comparison with gold that offers a 10x upside
There is nothing to properly compare $ETH with, so it can very well be valued at $200bn or $2000bn MC
The way $BTC has been going up has shown that there are perma-buyers and perma dip buyers as soon as we get a -20% correction or more. That's been true since the launch of ETFs. BTC goes up steadily and consolidates for several months after each leg up, which means the uptrend is very healthy.
It's not been true at all for $ETH, which just went up +240% in 4 months, meaning the dip buyers could very well step in only at -50% drawdown since the price anchor is not very high and a lot of PnL has been made over just a few weeks (ie lots of potential profit takers). Also we've seen that tradfi did not give a fuck about $ETH for almost a year after its ETF launch, so I have much less confidence in them being on the buy-side on a regular basis.
Finally, Saylor has spent years building trust in MSTR, and you can see how sticky the mNAV is for it, vs the ETH ones which are completely new and can trade at 1.2x mNAV just 2 weeks after trading at 2x. MSTR is an absolute behemoth that I trust more for long-term purchase power than any ETH DAT. That is a statement can only change with time and progressive strengthening of ETH treasury companies.
$BTC as SoV is a clear narrative with a clear comparison with gold that offers a 10x upside
There is nothing to properly compare $ETH with, so it can very well be valued at $200bn or $2000bn MC
The way $BTC has been going up has shown that there are perma-buyers and perma dip buyers as soon as we get a -20% correction or more. That's been true since the launch of ETFs. BTC goes up steadily and consolidates for several months after each leg up, which means the uptrend is very healthy.
It's not been true at all for $ETH, which just went up +240% in 4 months, meaning the dip buyers could very well step in only at -50% drawdown since the price anchor is not very high and a lot of PnL has been made over just a few weeks (ie lots of potential profit takers). Also we've seen that tradfi did not give a fuck about $ETH for almost a year after its ETF launch, so I have much less confidence in them being on the buy-side on a regular basis.
Finally, Saylor has spent years building trust in MSTR, and you can see how sticky the mNAV is for it, vs the ETH ones which are completely new and can trade at 1.2x mNAV just 2 weeks after trading at 2x. MSTR is an absolute behemoth that I trust more for long-term purchase power than any ETH DAT. That is a statement can only change with time and progressive strengthening of ETH treasury companies.
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