Crypto Narratives
It just looks very unlikely to me that the ETH treasury companies mania can only last 2 weeks They should clearly still be able to deploy more, which will push $ETH price higher
Despite the early August dump, it was correct to expect the ETH treasury company mania to last for longer
The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH
We are very reliant on people bidding the ETH treasury companies. It feels like it's quite early, but things are going so fast that we can expect the trend to exhaust early too
The great thing about treasury companies is that when the mNAV compresses to 1, there should theoretically be more and more buyers looking for a "cheap entry". So we can very well see the mNAV collapse and then bounce again for another leg, just like a week ago.
I tend to think the ETH treasury trade is still not over, but I am also not particularly bulled up about alts, so mostly running long BTC+ETH / short alts, with a bullish skew.
Alts are decently strong (their price action vs BTC is surprisingly resilient), but it's essentially a second order effect of ETH pumping, so I would argue it's somewhat of a "fake" strength. The evidence for that is the OTHERS/ETH chart being down only.
Strange situation and market, especially in the middle of August.
The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH
We are very reliant on people bidding the ETH treasury companies. It feels like it's quite early, but things are going so fast that we can expect the trend to exhaust early too
The great thing about treasury companies is that when the mNAV compresses to 1, there should theoretically be more and more buyers looking for a "cheap entry". So we can very well see the mNAV collapse and then bounce again for another leg, just like a week ago.
I tend to think the ETH treasury trade is still not over, but I am also not particularly bulled up about alts, so mostly running long BTC+ETH / short alts, with a bullish skew.
Alts are decently strong (their price action vs BTC is surprisingly resilient), but it's essentially a second order effect of ETH pumping, so I would argue it's somewhat of a "fake" strength. The evidence for that is the OTHERS/ETH chart being down only.
Strange situation and market, especially in the middle of August.
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$1bn $ETH ETF inflows in one day
$BMNR up 2x in a week
ETH is just speedrunning it all
While most coins are barely moving
Pretty crazy to see
$BMNR up 2x in a week
ETH is just speedrunning it all
While most coins are barely moving
Pretty crazy to see
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It's great to see $ETH giga send in a few weeks with multi billion inflows
But don't forget that your downside risk after this kind of spiky move is much larger vs the steady multi-month uptrend on $BTC
For now we ride, but you should de-risk on the way up instead of the other way around
But don't forget that your downside risk after this kind of spiky move is much larger vs the steady multi-month uptrend on $BTC
For now we ride, but you should de-risk on the way up instead of the other way around
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Have you ever heard about this notion of taking profits in 3 chunks
The first one will usually be before the top, the second close to the top, and the third after the top.
I'd say we are at the first one here
The first one will usually be before the top, the second close to the top, and the third after the top.
I'd say we are at the first one here
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Crypto Narratives
Have you ever heard about this notion of taking profits in 3 chunks The first one will usually be before the top, the second close to the top, and the third after the top. I'd say we are at the first one here
I am mostly talking about $ETH here, no spot TP on BTC at these prices for me
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Given the size of the ETH wick on Hyperliquid, I think the $ETH bottom should be in locally
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Crypto Narratives
Despite the early August dump, it was correct to expect the ETH treasury company mania to last for longer The momentum in alts has been killed in late July though, and we are now in a very strange situation where the clear leader of this market is $ETH We…
Long BTC+ETH / short alts is the trade I feel the safest in
I run it with a bullish skew (ie I am net long), I add a few alt longs on the ones I like, and I try to mostly target weak alts for shorts
I run it with a bullish skew (ie I am net long), I add a few alt longs on the ones I like, and I try to mostly target weak alts for shorts
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Different categories of good altcoin shorts :
- Old coin that is still very large in mcap, was hot several months ago but not anymore (RNDR)
- Coin that got recently crimed up until a squeeze climax (LAYER)
- High FDV low float large cap (WLD)
- High FDV low float mid cap (KAITO)
- Coin that recently pumped hard but momentum died (MOODENG)
- Coin that had an event-driven unsustainable vertical pump (HYPER)
- Coin that is selling some news (IP)
- Coin that was pushed up in a very hot narrative that is now dead (AI16Z)
- Old coin with low mindshare (MINA)
- New coin that pumped very hard immediately after TGE and now has gravity (M)
- Old coin that is still very large in mcap, was hot several months ago but not anymore (RNDR)
- Coin that got recently crimed up until a squeeze climax (LAYER)
- High FDV low float large cap (WLD)
- High FDV low float mid cap (KAITO)
- Coin that recently pumped hard but momentum died (MOODENG)
- Coin that had an event-driven unsustainable vertical pump (HYPER)
- Coin that is selling some news (IP)
- Coin that was pushed up in a very hot narrative that is now dead (AI16Z)
- Old coin with low mindshare (MINA)
- New coin that pumped very hard immediately after TGE and now has gravity (M)
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Cycle top this, cycle top that
Most altcoins are in a bear market RIGHT NOW, dawg
Did I choose dogshit alts as illustrations ? Yes
But is the crypto market mostly filled with dogshit alts ? Also yes
Most altcoins are in a bear market RIGHT NOW, dawg
Did I choose dogshit alts as illustrations ? Yes
But is the crypto market mostly filled with dogshit alts ? Also yes
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Crypto Narratives
Cycle top this, cycle top that Most altcoins are in a bear market RIGHT NOW, dawg Did I choose dogshit alts as illustrations ? Yes But is the crypto market mostly filled with dogshit alts ? Also yes
This is also a way to see that we are not in a risk-on season right now
It is just $ETH that is flying because of the ETH treasury companies buying
It is just $ETH that is flying because of the ETH treasury companies buying
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$BTC dipping doesn't make me raise an eyebrow
But $ETH ?
Damn, I am scared about a top anytime this thing goes down a few percent
ETH is up 2x in like one month, it can easily dump -30% and I wouldn't be certain it's a dip to buy and hold
While a -30% dump on BTC is literally the largest drawdown it's had this cycle (happened twice)
Two very different behaviors on BTC and ETH
That being said, I don't think $ETH has topped. Because I don't think the ETH treasury companies suddenly stop getting inflows, and there is still enough momentum to push the trade higher
But $ETH ?
Damn, I am scared about a top anytime this thing goes down a few percent
ETH is up 2x in like one month, it can easily dump -30% and I wouldn't be certain it's a dip to buy and hold
While a -30% dump on BTC is literally the largest drawdown it's had this cycle (happened twice)
Two very different behaviors on BTC and ETH
That being said, I don't think $ETH has topped. Because I don't think the ETH treasury companies suddenly stop getting inflows, and there is still enough momentum to push the trade higher
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That's looking good for $MNT (currently the strongest top 100 coin)
https://x.com/Defi_Maestro/status/1956192778935001568
https://x.com/Defi_Maestro/status/1956192778935001568
X (formerly Twitter)
Defi_Maestro ✺ (@Defi_Maestro) on X
TLDR for the @Mantle_Official AMA held last night:
Mantle L2
- Helen (Bybit Co-CEO) and Emily (Head of Bybit Spot and Byreal Co-founder) will be joining Mantle as Core Contributors
- Mantle L2 will be focusing on creating industry-grade rails for real-world…
Mantle L2
- Helen (Bybit Co-CEO) and Emily (Head of Bybit Spot and Byreal Co-founder) will be joining Mantle as Core Contributors
- Mantle L2 will be focusing on creating industry-grade rails for real-world…
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When the market is weak, $ETH underperforms altcoins (ie OTHERS/ETH goes up)
That is already what happened on the dump from 2 weeks ago
It's very different from OTHERS/BTC which tends to go down when the market goes down
That is already what happened on the dump from 2 weeks ago
It's very different from OTHERS/BTC which tends to go down when the market goes down
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