Mt. Gox BTC being distributed on Kraken (only a portion of all gox coins) with $BTC barely moving

5% of Grayscale ETH already sold on day 1

100M net inflows on day one for $ETH ETF

Yep, dips are for buying

In early June, $BTC was unable to pump on good news

Now, $BTC is unable to dump on bad news

I dunno, I just can't bring myself to be anything else than bullish

It will feel obvious in hindsight

Another dip eaten in 24h on $BTC

One of the bear cases is that people are short-term positioned for Trump's speech at the BTC conference and that they are going to sell the news

I remain bullish though

-4% dip on $BTC and we already retraced 60% of that drawdown

The target is a new ATH for BTC

There have only been 3 altcoin narratives that stood out in terms of performance in the last 2 weeks :

- $SOL and its ecosystem coins
- Cat coins (MEW POPCAT MOG)
- Ordinals (SATS RATS ORDI)

I am usually not too interested in the memecoins that all of CT talk about 10h after launch

Besides $NEIRO, the 'recent' examples I can think of are :

$BALD
$BOME
$SLERF
$DJT

They can either 10x in a few hours or go to zero swiftly

Usually these coins quickly have a lot of holders with 6 or 7 fig profits and that's why they have the cabale vibes (among other things)

I like it WAY MORE when the meme develops progressively or when there are long periods of consolidation/range and the supply gets distributed into stronger hands with higher timeframes

Some people are trading the exact opposite way : ape the new launches very early and sometimes you will get a 100x in a day. You just have to know what your trading style is, and where your edge is.

Recap of the week article :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-28

Sweep 70k and then dump

A classic among classics

(I did not short or cut my longs tho, not too interested in hedging for what I hope is a low timeframe dump)

Let's hope this support holds on $BTC

We've gone much lower but are respecting the support on the daily and are probably going to close it with a very bullish candle

We tapped $70k during one second and then the market decided to turn into full scam

We dumped almost straight to $60k in a few days

The market was in 'no dips allowed' mode during the second half of July and now it feels like we're exactly in the same environment as in June, which was absolutely painful

But it found a bottom after that...

My biggest worry is that people are feeling depressed and desperate while $BTC stands at -18% from ATH

I am not saying that to imply 'what are you worried about, prices barely moved ?' because my altcoin bags have been destroyed too

It's just that things could actually get worse quite easily

Even if I am still long and did not de-risk, I am aware that the potential downside is still far from being minimal. But I don't want to be the guy that freaks out at a local bottom, so...

What changed compared to one week ago that explains how sentiment flipped so quickly :

- Coinbase premium became a Coinbase discount
- Outperformance of crypto vs stocks disappeared
- Trump momentum flipped to Kamala momentum (that happened before, like 2-3 weeks ago)
- Dips are no longer eaten quickly, and bad news do cause market dumps
- Traditional markets are now freaking out about a potential recession
- There is fear about an escalation in the Israel/Iran conflict
- We have printed a clear lower high on $BTC and we are at support again (but after a range reclaim)

Well, yeah, down bad.

Don’t try to make it all back in one trade, you have to think clearly to take decisions right now.

Also don’t lose sight of the long-term conviction you have. We were at $70k a week ago, and we are currently 25% lower. The ETH max drawdown from ATH was almost -50%. Make sure that you can withstand the worst case scenario from here, but we are not going to zero.

If you lost a massive amount of money, and feel sick to your stomach, don’t do anything stupid, it’s just money at the end of the day. You must take time to reset your mind. You will be able to make it back and way more, but it will take some time.

Much love everyone. 🙌

Just to put things in perspective, a few hours ago, $ETH was at the same price as in April 2023, when we were still very much in bear market territories.

Don't put your bid targets too stupidly low

2 months later, this chart has now gone lower than its summer 2023 bottom

$JUP performance is impressive, it has barely underperformed $SOL on this down move (the chart is JUP/SOL)

Right now, it is also the highest FDV coins among all coins launched from 2022.

I think one of the main explanations is that it has become the #1 Solana altcoin and there is a lot of value in being this Schelling point, especially at a time where Solana strength is noticed by everyone.

The curse of $ETH :

When you think it will go up, buying $SOL is a better idea

When you think it will go down, holding USD is the better idea

The 3 largest market caps among coins launched from 2023 are :

$PEPE - $3.4bn
$TAO - $1.9bn
$WIF - $1.7bn

July recap of crypto markets newsletter is out :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/july-recap-narratives-best-performers

What coins and narratives got attention in July :

- $SOL and its ecosystem coins ($JUP and $JTO for example)

- $BTC outperformed both altcoins and $ETH

- 3 cat coins have become the highest beta coins across the market : $POPCAT $MOG $MEW

- A few dino coins have been very strong : $XRP leading, but also $TRX $BCH $XMR $ZEC

- Defi 1.0 behemoths $MKR and $AAVE outperformed

- $ZRO is the 'new VC coin' that got the most attention and pumped more than 2x bottom to top

- $NEIRO is DOGE #2 ? 50x for those that caught the ETH one early

- Ordinals silently pumped off the bottom : $SATS $ORDI $RATS

- A few Solana memecoins performed very well : $MUMU $RETARDIO $SCF