If you've been using dino coins as hedge shorts (like me) for your longs, then June and the first half of July have not been comfortable on this front.

We should be back to 'business as usual' now, and they should underperform again, as they often do in bullish environments.

$TON is really a strange coin

Strong when the whole market pukes, and flat when everything bounces

Largest memecoins ranked by market caps (exc DOGE/SHIB)

$MOG and $POPCAT are now getting close to the $1bn mark

Now that $ZRO has pumped (and is likely to push higher), people will be looking for similar coins.

Similar can be same category (bridge ?), beta (LayerZero ecosystem ?), or similar launch timing.

I am mostly interested in the VC coins that launched at about the same time.

The full list is : $ZK $TAIKO $ATH $IO $BLAST

In this list, I mostly like $ZK (I wrote a few times that it was undervalued on a relative basis), $TAIKO (no strong opinion on it but it simply shows strength), and now also $BLAST.

BLAST is a VC coin, an L2, and it still trades below $2bn FDV, which seems really low given its large mindshare, and potential for a hated rally.

TAIKO FDV is 30% higher while being way less known and way smaller in TVL. BLAST has also been trading at something like $5-$6bn in pre-markets a few months ago iirc, and I think it definitely could get back there if the market remains risk-on.

It's become clear now that the funding rates are not providing very valuable info anymore, mostly because of Ethena that mechanically pushes it down.

This means that it's harder to know when the market is over-leveraged, but in the same time, you don't have to pay insane funding fees for weeks, and that is pretty cool.

Dips are shallow and quickly bought

Lots of people are still sidelined and mentally ready to short / derisk

It makes sense to remain bullish and ready to buy dips

Don't do the mistake of getting more bullish as price goes up, though

This is how $BTC moved in the hours leading to the ETF trading opening.

Slow grind up and an acceleration in the end, with a large spike in the first 30m of trading, before a sell-off.

The new meta when you are a token that everybody wants to short because of some meaningful unlock coming is to change the vesting one day before just to fck the short sellers.

It's quite sneaky and won't save your 10% float token.

If you want to short these things, be aware that you are in a PvP both versus the other traders and the team.

Mt. Gox BTC being distributed on Kraken (only a portion of all gox coins) with $BTC barely moving

5% of Grayscale ETH already sold on day 1

100M net inflows on day one for $ETH ETF

Yep, dips are for buying

In early June, $BTC was unable to pump on good news

Now, $BTC is unable to dump on bad news

I dunno, I just can't bring myself to be anything else than bullish

It will feel obvious in hindsight

Another dip eaten in 24h on $BTC

One of the bear cases is that people are short-term positioned for Trump's speech at the BTC conference and that they are going to sell the news

I remain bullish though

-4% dip on $BTC and we already retraced 60% of that drawdown

The target is a new ATH for BTC

There have only been 3 altcoin narratives that stood out in terms of performance in the last 2 weeks :

- $SOL and its ecosystem coins
- Cat coins (MEW POPCAT MOG)
- Ordinals (SATS RATS ORDI)

I am usually not too interested in the memecoins that all of CT talk about 10h after launch

Besides $NEIRO, the 'recent' examples I can think of are :

$BALD
$BOME
$SLERF
$DJT

They can either 10x in a few hours or go to zero swiftly

Usually these coins quickly have a lot of holders with 6 or 7 fig profits and that's why they have the cabale vibes (among other things)

I like it WAY MORE when the meme develops progressively or when there are long periods of consolidation/range and the supply gets distributed into stronger hands with higher timeframes

Some people are trading the exact opposite way : ape the new launches very early and sometimes you will get a 100x in a day. You just have to know what your trading style is, and where your edge is.

Recap of the week article :

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-july-28

Sweep 70k and then dump

A classic among classics

(I did not short or cut my longs tho, not too interested in hedging for what I hope is a low timeframe dump)

Let's hope this support holds on $BTC

We've gone much lower but are respecting the support on the daily and are probably going to close it with a very bullish candle

We tapped $70k during one second and then the market decided to turn into full scam

We dumped almost straight to $60k in a few days

The market was in 'no dips allowed' mode during the second half of July and now it feels like we're exactly in the same environment as in June, which was absolutely painful

But it found a bottom after that...