The Week On-Chain 43, 2025
Bitcoin remains stuck below key cost-basis levels as demand softens and long-term holders sell. Volatility is subdued but uneasy, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish Fed surprise.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin’s weekend rebound from the $107K–$118K supply cluster mirrored previous post-ATH relief rallies, but sustained sell pressure from long-term holders has limited follow-through.
- The market continues to struggle above the short-term holders’ cost basis (~$113K), a critical battleground between bull and bear momentum. Failure to reclaim this level raises the risk of deeper retracement toward the Active Investors’ Realized Price (~$88K).
- Short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain heavy net distributors (~–104K BTC/month), signaling waning conviction and ongoing supply absorption.
- Implied volatility has cooled sharply after October’s crash, with skew flattening and options flows reflecting controlled upside and measured downside hedging.
- The current calm in volatility hinges on the Federal Reserve’s next decision. A dovish outcome would preserve stability, but any hawkish surprise could reignite volatility and downside protection demand


Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter

Yesterday, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of –$93M, highlighting rising sell pressure from TradFi investors and renewed weakness in institutional demand.

📈https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5

Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B/day (7D-SMA) in mid-July to $2–3B/day by early October.

Unlike previous high-spending phases in this cycle, this distribution regime has been gradual and persistent, rather than marked by a sharp spike.

📈 https://glassno.de/3X4EPQc

Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation.

Around the $126k ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.

📈https://glassno.de/4oPMJZT

These investors accumulated heavily between October 2024 (election period) & April 2025, with a cost basis ranging from $70k to $96k, averaging around $93k.

A breakdown below the $93k–$96k range would mark maximum pain for this cohort.

📈 https://glassno.de/4qzGXgv

#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS

#BTC Options Weekly

The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.

Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly

Since early August, XRP price has dropped from $3.3 to $2.4 (-27% 🔽).
At the same time, long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 ramped up their spending by ~580%, from $38M/day to $260M/day (7D-SMA)

A clear sign of seasoned traders exiting and adding pressure to price action.

📉glassno.de/3WtnfFv

Short-Term Holders are facing renewed pressure as recent buyers move into a loss.
Historically, such periods of STH stress and capitulation have marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqsJwY

Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows.

This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand.

📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows

Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply.
This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands.

A process that often demands time or deeper discounts.

📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c

Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.

📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now.

This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.

📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban