Long-term holder spending rose from ~$1B/day (7D-SMA) in mid-July to $2–3B/day by early October.

Unlike previous high-spending phases in this cycle, this distribution regime has been gradual and persistent, rather than marked by a sharp spike.

📈 https://glassno.de/3X4EPQc

Filtering by age cohort reveals that 6m–12m holders drove over 50% of recent sell pressure—especially during the late stages of the top formation.

Around the $126k ATH, their spending exceeded $648M/day (7D-SMA); over 5x their baseline earlier in 2025.

📈https://glassno.de/4oPMJZT

These investors accumulated heavily between October 2024 (election period) & April 2025, with a cost basis ranging from $70k to $96k, averaging around $93k.

A breakdown below the $93k–$96k range would mark maximum pain for this cohort.

📈 https://glassno.de/4qzGXgv

#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS

#BTC Options Weekly

The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.

Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly

Since early August, XRP price has dropped from $3.3 to $2.4 (-27% 🔽).
At the same time, long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 ramped up their spending by ~580%, from $38M/day to $260M/day (7D-SMA)

A clear sign of seasoned traders exiting and adding pressure to price action.

📉glassno.de/3WtnfFv

Short-Term Holders are facing renewed pressure as recent buyers move into a loss.
Historically, such periods of STH stress and capitulation have marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqsJwY

Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows.

This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand.

📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows

Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply.
This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands.

A process that often demands time or deeper discounts.

📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c

Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.

📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now.

This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.

📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban

The Week On-Chain 44, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase.
- Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections.
- Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower.
- U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure.
- The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs.
- Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip.



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