#BTC retested the 0.85 cost-basis band around $109K, historically a make-or-break level.
Holding it has sparked major rallies, but losing it often sees a slide toward the 0.75 band ($98K).
📈https://glassno.de/47kDhHS

#BTC Options Weekly

The Fed delivered the expected rate cut, but the hawkish tone for December has cooled optimism. The initial rally faded as traders moved back into cautious mode, a shift clearly reflected in BTC’s options market.

Check out our latest BTC Options Weekly

Since early August, XRP price has dropped from $3.3 to $2.4 (-27% 🔽).
At the same time, long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 ramped up their spending by ~580%, from $38M/day to $260M/day (7D-SMA)

A clear sign of seasoned traders exiting and adding pressure to price action.

📉glassno.de/3WtnfFv

Short-Term Holders are facing renewed pressure as recent buyers move into a loss.
Historically, such periods of STH stress and capitulation have marked attractive accumulation opportunities for patient investors.
🔗https://glassno.de/4oqsJwY

Over the past three weeks, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF has seen less than 0.6k BTC in weekly net inflows.

This is a sharp decline from the >10K BTC net inflow per week that preceded each major rally this cycle, signalling a notable slowdown in institutional demand.

📉http://glassno.de/USSpotETFFlows

Since July, BTC has consistently failed to reclaim the cost basis of the top buyers' supply.
This increases the odds of a retest of the 0.8-quantile cost basis (~$104K) as top buyers capitulate, transferring coins to stronger hands.

A process that often demands time or deeper discounts.

📉http://glassno.de/4qwKX1c

Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.

📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

The monthly funding paid by longs in Bitcoin perpetuals has declined by ~62%, from $338M/month in mid-August to $127M/month now.

This underscores a clear macro downtrend in speculative appetite, as traders grow reluctant to pay interest to maintain long exposure.

📉 http://glassno.de/4oqXban

The Week On-Chain 44, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase.
- Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections.
- Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower.
- U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure.
- The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs.
- Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip.



Read more in The Week On-Chain new

#BTC Options Weekly

Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action.

Check our latest BTC Options Weekly

Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K.
The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.

📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN