infinityhedge
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH, RISES TO $3,100
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH, RISES TO $3,300
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POWELL: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS LIKELY LARGER THAN EXPECTED
POWELL: INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TARIFFS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT
POWELL: INFLATIONARY EFFECTS OF TARIFFS MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT
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POWELL: MAY FIND OURSELVES IN SCENARIO WITH MANDATES IN TENSION
POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR MORE CLARITY FOR TIME BEING
POWELL: CAN’T HAVE STRONG LABOR MARKET WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY
POWELL: EFFECTS OF POLICY WILL LIKELY MOVE THE FED AWAY FROM ITS GOALS
POWELL: WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM GOALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS YEAR, PERHAPS CAN RESUME NEXT YEAR
POWELL: TARIFFS LARGER THAN WE EXPECTED EVEN IN OUR UPSIDE CASE
POWELL: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR MORE CLARITY FOR TIME BEING
POWELL: CAN’T HAVE STRONG LABOR MARKET WITHOUT PRICE STABILITY
POWELL: EFFECTS OF POLICY WILL LIKELY MOVE THE FED AWAY FROM ITS GOALS
POWELL: WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM GOALS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS YEAR, PERHAPS CAN RESUME NEXT YEAR
POWELL: TARIFFS LARGER THAN WE EXPECTED EVEN IN OUR UPSIDE CASE
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Q: Is there a Fed put for the stock market?
Powell: "I'm going to say no, with an explanation..."
POWELL: THE TARIFF SHOCK PUSHES TOWARD HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INLFATION
POWELL: COULD WELL BE IN SITUATION WHERE NEED TO MAKE A DIFFICULT DECISION
POWELL: IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT JUDGEMENT IF THE FED'S MANDATES DO COME INTO CONFLICT
POWELL: IF RISKS WERE STRUCTURALLY HIGHER, THAT WOULD MAKE US LESS ATTRACTIVE
POWELL: RESERVES ARE STILL ABUNDANT; NOT CLOSE TO THE POINT WHERE THE FED WOULD STOP BALANCE SHEET RUNOFF ALTOGETHER
POWELL: THE SLOWER THE FED GOES THE SMALLER THE BALANCE SHEET CAN GET WITHOUT DISRUPTION
POWELL: THE FED IS NOT GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY POLITICAL PRESSURE
*S&P 500 EXTENDS DECLINE TO 2.5%, NASDAQ 100 DOWN 3.5%
Powell: "I'm going to say no, with an explanation..."
POWELL: THE TARIFF SHOCK PUSHES TOWARD HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INLFATION
POWELL: COULD WELL BE IN SITUATION WHERE NEED TO MAKE A DIFFICULT DECISION
POWELL: IT WILL BE A DIFFICULT JUDGEMENT IF THE FED'S MANDATES DO COME INTO CONFLICT
POWELL: IF RISKS WERE STRUCTURALLY HIGHER, THAT WOULD MAKE US LESS ATTRACTIVE
POWELL: RESERVES ARE STILL ABUNDANT; NOT CLOSE TO THE POINT WHERE THE FED WOULD STOP BALANCE SHEET RUNOFF ALTOGETHER
POWELL: THE SLOWER THE FED GOES THE SMALLER THE BALANCE SHEET CAN GET WITHOUT DISRUPTION
POWELL: THE FED IS NOT GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY POLITICAL PRESSURE
*S&P 500 EXTENDS DECLINE TO 2.5%, NASDAQ 100 DOWN 3.5%
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TRUMP: POWELL’S TERMINATION CANNOT COME FAST ENOUGH!
TRUMP: FED SHOULD HAVE LOWERED INTEREST RATES LONG AGO; POWELL IS ALWAYS TOO LATE AND WRONG
TRUMP: FED SHOULD HAVE LOWERED INTEREST RATES LONG AGO; POWELL IS ALWAYS TOO LATE AND WRONG
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TRUMP: NO RUSH TO ANNOUNCE TRADE DEAL
TRUMP: WILL END UP WITH SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER FOR BASELINE TARIFF
TRUMP: WE WILL HAVE A DEAL WITH CHINA
TRUMP: WILL MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH CHINA
TRUMP: WE'LL HAVE VERY LITTLE PROBLEM MAKING DEAL WITH EUROPE
TRUMP: WILL END UP WITH SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER FOR BASELINE TARIFF
TRUMP: WE WILL HAVE A DEAL WITH CHINA
TRUMP: WILL MAKE GOOD DEAL WITH CHINA
TRUMP: WE'LL HAVE VERY LITTLE PROBLEM MAKING DEAL WITH EUROPE
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TRUMP ON POWELL: IF I WANT HIM OUT, HE'LL BE OUT OF THERE REAL FAST, BELIEVE ME
TRUMP: IF COUNTRIES DON'T WANT TO MAKE A DEAL, WE'LL MAKE IT FOR THEM; WE SET THE DEAL
TRUMP, ASKED IF HIS MIND WAS CHANGED ON TARIFFS: NO
TRUMP: IF COUNTRIES DON'T WANT TO MAKE A DEAL, WE'LL MAKE IT FOR THEM; WE SET THE DEAL
TRUMP, ASKED IF HIS MIND WAS CHANGED ON TARIFFS: NO
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*TRUMP HAS PRIVATELY DISCUSSED FIRING FED CHAIR POWELL: WSJ
*TRUMP HAS SPOKEN WITH KEVIN WARSH, A FORMER FED GOVERNOR, ABOUT POTENTIALLY FIRING POWELL BEFORE HIS TERM ENDS AND POSSIBLY SELECTING WARSH TO BE HIS REPLACEMENT
*WARSH HAS ADVISED TRUMP AGAINST FIRING POWELL AND HAS ARGUED THAT HE SHOULD LET THE FED CHAIR COMPLETE HIS TERM WITHOUT INTERFERENCE
*TRUMP HAS SPOKEN WITH KEVIN WARSH, A FORMER FED GOVERNOR, ABOUT POTENTIALLY FIRING POWELL BEFORE HIS TERM ENDS AND POSSIBLY SELECTING WARSH TO BE HIS REPLACEMENT
*WARSH HAS ADVISED TRUMP AGAINST FIRING POWELL AND HAS ARGUED THAT HE SHOULD LET THE FED CHAIR COMPLETE HIS TERM WITHOUT INTERFERENCE
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WHITE HOUSE'S HASSETT: TRUMP IS STUDYING WHETHER FIRING FED'S POWELL IS AN OPTION
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infinityhedge
The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge Mon/14: •Trump to provide details on Semiconductor tariffs •Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase •FTC vs Meta Trial: It could force meta to unwind its acquisition of WhatsApp & Instagram •Katy Perry & five other women…
The Week Ahead | infinityhedge
Mon/21: Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
Tue/22: Earth Day
*IMF World Economic Outlook report
*Stablecoin Giant Circle To Launch a New Payments, Remittance Network aiming to rival Mastercard & Visa
*Tesla Q1 Earnings
Thu/24:
*Alphabet, Intel Q1 Earnings
*US To Sign Minerals Deal With Ukraine
Fri/25:
*SEC Crypto Policy Roundtable On Custody Issues
*$6.5B BTC Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.68, Max Pain Price: $85K
*$700M ETH Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.76, Max Pain Price: $1.9k
Sat/26: White House Correspondents Association annual dinner 🍿
WHOLE WEEK:
*Macro: Trump-Tariffs-Powell, Earnings Season: Capital Expenditures
*Crypto: Ethena S3, Hyperlane airdrop claim portal, Solana Crossroads Event
BBG Economics: IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5% points. However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse
Reads and charts are in group
Mon/21: Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
Tue/22: Earth Day
*IMF World Economic Outlook report
*Stablecoin Giant Circle To Launch a New Payments, Remittance Network aiming to rival Mastercard & Visa
*Tesla Q1 Earnings
Thu/24:
*Alphabet, Intel Q1 Earnings
*US To Sign Minerals Deal With Ukraine
Fri/25:
*SEC Crypto Policy Roundtable On Custody Issues
*$6.5B BTC Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.68, Max Pain Price: $85K
*$700M ETH Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.76, Max Pain Price: $1.9k
Sat/26: White House Correspondents Association annual dinner 🍿
WHOLE WEEK:
*Macro: Trump-Tariffs-Powell, Earnings Season: Capital Expenditures
*Crypto: Ethena S3, Hyperlane airdrop claim portal, Solana Crossroads Event
BBG Economics: IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5% points. However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse
Reads and charts are in group
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infinityhedge
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH, RISES TO $3,300
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH, RISES TO $3,400
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*TRUMP: THERE COULD BE SLOWING OF ECONOMY IF POWELL DOESN’T CUT RATES
*Trump: There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.
*Trump: Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered rates in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden
*Trump: There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.
*Trump: Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered rates in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden
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*S&P 500 EXTENDS DECLINE TO 3%, NASDAQ 100 DOWN 3.3%
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US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT SEES DE-ESCALATION WITH CHINA, SITUATION UNSUSTAINABLE: SOURCES
*Bessent added that negotiations haven't started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan, which wasn't open to the public or media
*BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO
*BESSENT: GOAL IS NOT TO DECOUPLE U.S., CHINA ECONOMIES
*BESSENT: REBALANCING OF CHINA ECONOMY TOWARDS CONSUMPTION AND US ECONOMY TOWARDS MANUFACTURING IN TWO TO THREE YEARS WOULD BE A HUGE WIN
*BESSENT: U.S. SEEKS REBALANCING WITH CHINA BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER BEIJING IS READY TO DO IT
*Bessent added that negotiations haven't started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan, which wasn't open to the public or media
*BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO
*BESSENT: GOAL IS NOT TO DECOUPLE U.S., CHINA ECONOMIES
*BESSENT: REBALANCING OF CHINA ECONOMY TOWARDS CONSUMPTION AND US ECONOMY TOWARDS MANUFACTURING IN TWO TO THREE YEARS WOULD BE A HUGE WIN
*BESSENT: U.S. SEEKS REBALANCING WITH CHINA BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER BEIJING IS READY TO DO IT
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*TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO BE VERY GOOD TO CHINA
*TRUMP ASKED IF HE’LL PLAY HARDBALL WITH CHINA, SAYS NO
*TRUMP: CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO MAKE A DEAL
*TRUMP: IF THEY DON'T MAKE A DEAL, WE'LL SET THE DEAL
*TRUMP: TARIFF ON CHINA WON'T BE AS HIGH AS 145%
*TRUMP: CHINA TARIFF WILL COME DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BUT WON'T BE ZERO
*TRUMP: I THINK WE WILL MAKE DEAL WITH CHINA
*TRUMP ASKED IF HE’LL PLAY HARDBALL WITH CHINA, SAYS NO
*TRUMP: CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO MAKE A DEAL
*TRUMP: IF THEY DON'T MAKE A DEAL, WE'LL SET THE DEAL
*TRUMP: TARIFF ON CHINA WON'T BE AS HIGH AS 145%
*TRUMP: CHINA TARIFF WILL COME DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BUT WON'T BE ZERO
*TRUMP: I THINK WE WILL MAKE DEAL WITH CHINA
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*US CONSIDERS CUTTING CHINA TARIFFS TO DE-ESCALATE TRADE WAR:WSJ
*CHINA TARIFFS LIKELY COMING DOWN TO BETWEEN 50% AND 65%: WSJ
*The administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to the one proposed by the House committee on China late last year: 35% levies for items the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, and at least 100% for items deemed as strategic to America’s interest: WSJ
*WHITE HOUSE WOULD LOOK AT LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINESE IMPORTS PENDING TALKS WITH BEIJING: RTRS
*ANY STEPS WOULD BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CHINA TALKS, NOT UNILATERAL: RTRS
*CHINA TARIFFS LIKELY COMING DOWN TO BETWEEN 50% AND 65%: WSJ
*The administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to the one proposed by the House committee on China late last year: 35% levies for items the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, and at least 100% for items deemed as strategic to America’s interest: WSJ
*WHITE HOUSE WOULD LOOK AT LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINESE IMPORTS PENDING TALKS WITH BEIJING: RTRS
*ANY STEPS WOULD BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CHINA TALKS, NOT UNILATERAL: RTRS
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BESSENT: NO UNILATERAL OFFER FROM TRUMP TO CUT CHINA TARIFFS
BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
BESSENT: DOES NOT HAVE TIME FRAME FOR START OF CHINA TALKS, WILL HAVE TO TAKE PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS THAN TRUMP AND XI
*TRUMP SAID TIMING OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS DEPENDS ON CHINA; WILL SET NEW CHINA TARIFF LEVELS IN NEXT 2–3 WEEKS; IF WE DON'T MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA, IT'S OK
UPDATE: CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: ANY CONTENT ABOUT CHINA-US ECONOMIC AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS IS 'GROUNDLESS AND HAS NO FACTUAL BASIS'; IF US REALLY WANTS TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE, IT SHOULD LIFT ALL UNILATERAL TARIFF MEASURES AGAINST CHINA
BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
BESSENT: DOES NOT HAVE TIME FRAME FOR START OF CHINA TALKS, WILL HAVE TO TAKE PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS THAN TRUMP AND XI
*TRUMP SAID TIMING OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS DEPENDS ON CHINA; WILL SET NEW CHINA TARIFF LEVELS IN NEXT 2–3 WEEKS; IF WE DON'T MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA, IT'S OK
UPDATE: CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: ANY CONTENT ABOUT CHINA-US ECONOMIC AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS IS 'GROUNDLESS AND HAS NO FACTUAL BASIS'; IF US REALLY WANTS TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE, IT SHOULD LIFT ALL UNILATERAL TARIFF MEASURES AGAINST CHINA
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