*TRUMP HAS PRIVATELY DISCUSSED FIRING FED CHAIR POWELL: WSJ
*TRUMP HAS SPOKEN WITH KEVIN WARSH, A FORMER FED GOVERNOR, ABOUT POTENTIALLY FIRING POWELL BEFORE HIS TERM ENDS AND POSSIBLY SELECTING WARSH TO BE HIS REPLACEMENT
*WARSH HAS ADVISED TRUMP AGAINST FIRING POWELL AND HAS ARGUED THAT HE SHOULD LET THE FED CHAIR COMPLETE HIS TERM WITHOUT INTERFERENCE
*TRUMP HAS SPOKEN WITH KEVIN WARSH, A FORMER FED GOVERNOR, ABOUT POTENTIALLY FIRING POWELL BEFORE HIS TERM ENDS AND POSSIBLY SELECTING WARSH TO BE HIS REPLACEMENT
*WARSH HAS ADVISED TRUMP AGAINST FIRING POWELL AND HAS ARGUED THAT HE SHOULD LET THE FED CHAIR COMPLETE HIS TERM WITHOUT INTERFERENCE
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WHITE HOUSE'S HASSETT: TRUMP IS STUDYING WHETHER FIRING FED'S POWELL IS AN OPTION
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infinityhedge
The Week Ahead | @infinityhedge Mon/14: •Trump to provide details on Semiconductor tariffs •Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase •FTC vs Meta Trial: It could force meta to unwind its acquisition of WhatsApp & Instagram •Katy Perry & five other women…
The Week Ahead | infinityhedge
Mon/21: Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
Tue/22: Earth Day
*IMF World Economic Outlook report
*Stablecoin Giant Circle To Launch a New Payments, Remittance Network aiming to rival Mastercard & Visa
*Tesla Q1 Earnings
Thu/24:
*Alphabet, Intel Q1 Earnings
*US To Sign Minerals Deal With Ukraine
Fri/25:
*SEC Crypto Policy Roundtable On Custody Issues
*$6.5B BTC Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.68, Max Pain Price: $85K
*$700M ETH Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.76, Max Pain Price: $1.9k
Sat/26: White House Correspondents Association annual dinner 🍿
WHOLE WEEK:
*Macro: Trump-Tariffs-Powell, Earnings Season: Capital Expenditures
*Crypto: Ethena S3, Hyperlane airdrop claim portal, Solana Crossroads Event
BBG Economics: IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5% points. However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse
Reads and charts are in group
Mon/21: Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
Tue/22: Earth Day
*IMF World Economic Outlook report
*Stablecoin Giant Circle To Launch a New Payments, Remittance Network aiming to rival Mastercard & Visa
*Tesla Q1 Earnings
Thu/24:
*Alphabet, Intel Q1 Earnings
*US To Sign Minerals Deal With Ukraine
Fri/25:
*SEC Crypto Policy Roundtable On Custody Issues
*$6.5B BTC Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.68, Max Pain Price: $85K
*$700M ETH Options Expiry, Put/Call: 0.76, Max Pain Price: $1.9k
Sat/26: White House Correspondents Association annual dinner 🍿
WHOLE WEEK:
*Macro: Trump-Tariffs-Powell, Earnings Season: Capital Expenditures
*Crypto: Ethena S3, Hyperlane airdrop claim portal, Solana Crossroads Event
BBG Economics: IMF’s projections tend to skew optimistic during potentially disruptive crises. In the four large crises we studied, the fund’s initial assessment of the immediate impact on global growth understated it by 0.5% points. However much the IMF may downgrade the growth forecasts to start, history suggests the ultimate blow will be worse
Reads and charts are in group
🙏20✍4🔥2
infinityhedge
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH, RISES TO $3,300
GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH, RISES TO $3,400
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*TRUMP: THERE COULD BE SLOWING OF ECONOMY IF POWELL DOESN’T CUT RATES
*Trump: There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.
*Trump: Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered rates in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden
*Trump: There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.
*Trump: Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered rates in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden
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*S&P 500 EXTENDS DECLINE TO 3%, NASDAQ 100 DOWN 3.3%
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US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT SEES DE-ESCALATION WITH CHINA, SITUATION UNSUSTAINABLE: SOURCES
*Bessent added that negotiations haven't started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan, which wasn't open to the public or media
*BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO
*BESSENT: GOAL IS NOT TO DECOUPLE U.S., CHINA ECONOMIES
*BESSENT: REBALANCING OF CHINA ECONOMY TOWARDS CONSUMPTION AND US ECONOMY TOWARDS MANUFACTURING IN TWO TO THREE YEARS WOULD BE A HUGE WIN
*BESSENT: U.S. SEEKS REBALANCING WITH CHINA BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER BEIJING IS READY TO DO IT
*Bessent added that negotiations haven't started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan, which wasn't open to the public or media
*BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO
*BESSENT: GOAL IS NOT TO DECOUPLE U.S., CHINA ECONOMIES
*BESSENT: REBALANCING OF CHINA ECONOMY TOWARDS CONSUMPTION AND US ECONOMY TOWARDS MANUFACTURING IN TWO TO THREE YEARS WOULD BE A HUGE WIN
*BESSENT: U.S. SEEKS REBALANCING WITH CHINA BUT QUESTION IS WHETHER BEIJING IS READY TO DO IT
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*TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO BE VERY GOOD TO CHINA
*TRUMP ASKED IF HE’LL PLAY HARDBALL WITH CHINA, SAYS NO
*TRUMP: CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO MAKE A DEAL
*TRUMP: IF THEY DON'T MAKE A DEAL, WE'LL SET THE DEAL
*TRUMP: TARIFF ON CHINA WON'T BE AS HIGH AS 145%
*TRUMP: CHINA TARIFF WILL COME DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BUT WON'T BE ZERO
*TRUMP: I THINK WE WILL MAKE DEAL WITH CHINA
*TRUMP ASKED IF HE’LL PLAY HARDBALL WITH CHINA, SAYS NO
*TRUMP: CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE TO MAKE A DEAL
*TRUMP: IF THEY DON'T MAKE A DEAL, WE'LL SET THE DEAL
*TRUMP: TARIFF ON CHINA WON'T BE AS HIGH AS 145%
*TRUMP: CHINA TARIFF WILL COME DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY BUT WON'T BE ZERO
*TRUMP: I THINK WE WILL MAKE DEAL WITH CHINA
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*US CONSIDERS CUTTING CHINA TARIFFS TO DE-ESCALATE TRADE WAR:WSJ
*CHINA TARIFFS LIKELY COMING DOWN TO BETWEEN 50% AND 65%: WSJ
*The administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to the one proposed by the House committee on China late last year: 35% levies for items the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, and at least 100% for items deemed as strategic to America’s interest: WSJ
*WHITE HOUSE WOULD LOOK AT LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINESE IMPORTS PENDING TALKS WITH BEIJING: RTRS
*ANY STEPS WOULD BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CHINA TALKS, NOT UNILATERAL: RTRS
*CHINA TARIFFS LIKELY COMING DOWN TO BETWEEN 50% AND 65%: WSJ
*The administration is also considering a tiered approach similar to the one proposed by the House committee on China late last year: 35% levies for items the U.S. deems not a threat to national security, and at least 100% for items deemed as strategic to America’s interest: WSJ
*WHITE HOUSE WOULD LOOK AT LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINESE IMPORTS PENDING TALKS WITH BEIJING: RTRS
*ANY STEPS WOULD BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CHINA TALKS, NOT UNILATERAL: RTRS
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BESSENT: NO UNILATERAL OFFER FROM TRUMP TO CUT CHINA TARIFFS
BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
BESSENT: DOES NOT HAVE TIME FRAME FOR START OF CHINA TALKS, WILL HAVE TO TAKE PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS THAN TRUMP AND XI
*TRUMP SAID TIMING OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS DEPENDS ON CHINA; WILL SET NEW CHINA TARIFF LEVELS IN NEXT 2–3 WEEKS; IF WE DON'T MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA, IT'S OK
UPDATE: CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: ANY CONTENT ABOUT CHINA-US ECONOMIC AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS IS 'GROUNDLESS AND HAS NO FACTUAL BASIS'; IF US REALLY WANTS TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE, IT SHOULD LIFT ALL UNILATERAL TARIFF MEASURES AGAINST CHINA
BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
BESSENT: DOES NOT HAVE TIME FRAME FOR START OF CHINA TALKS, WILL HAVE TO TAKE PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS THAN TRUMP AND XI
*TRUMP SAID TIMING OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS DEPENDS ON CHINA; WILL SET NEW CHINA TARIFF LEVELS IN NEXT 2–3 WEEKS; IF WE DON'T MAKE A DEAL WITH CHINA, IT'S OK
UPDATE: CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: ANY CONTENT ABOUT CHINA-US ECONOMIC AND TRADE NEGOTIATIONS IS 'GROUNDLESS AND HAS NO FACTUAL BASIS'; IF US REALLY WANTS TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE, IT SHOULD LIFT ALL UNILATERAL TARIFF MEASURES AGAINST CHINA
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INDIA, PAKISTAN CONFLICT RISING AFTER ATTACK ON KASHMIR TOURISTS KILLED 26 MEN IN THE WORST ATTACK ON CIVILIANS IN NEARLY TWO DECADES
*INDIA HAS SUSPENDED INDUS WATER TREATY WITH PAKISTAN
*INDIA ORDERED ALL PAKISTANI NATIONALS TO LEAVE BY APRIL 29
*PAKISTAN SUSPENDED ALL TRADE WITH INDIA INCLUDING TO AND FROM ANY THIRD COUNTRY THROUGH PAKISTAN
*PAKISTAN: ANY ATTEMPT TO STOP OR DIVERT FLOW OF WATER BELONGING TO PAKISTAN WILL BE CONSIDERED AS AN ACT OF WAR
*PAKISTAN’S AIRSPACE WILL BE CLOSED WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT FOR ALL INDIAN OWNED OR INDIAN OPERATED AIRLINES
*INDIA HAS SUSPENDED INDUS WATER TREATY WITH PAKISTAN
*INDIA ORDERED ALL PAKISTANI NATIONALS TO LEAVE BY APRIL 29
*PAKISTAN SUSPENDED ALL TRADE WITH INDIA INCLUDING TO AND FROM ANY THIRD COUNTRY THROUGH PAKISTAN
*PAKISTAN: ANY ATTEMPT TO STOP OR DIVERT FLOW OF WATER BELONGING TO PAKISTAN WILL BE CONSIDERED AS AN ACT OF WAR
*PAKISTAN’S AIRSPACE WILL BE CLOSED WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT FOR ALL INDIAN OWNED OR INDIAN OPERATED AIRLINES
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CHINA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY ON TRADE TALKS WITH US: CHINA AND US ARE NOT HAVING ANY CONSULTATIONS OR NEGOTIATIONS ON TARIFFS
CHINA SAYS US SHOULD NOT MISLEAD PUBLIC ON TALKS
CHINA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS NOT FAMILIAR WITH REPORTS ON CHINA TARIFF EXEMPTIONS
CHINA SAYS US SHOULD NOT MISLEAD PUBLIC ON TALKS
CHINA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS NOT FAMILIAR WITH REPORTS ON CHINA TARIFF EXEMPTIONS
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TRUMP SAYS:
ON HIS ACTIONS IN OFFICE: "WHAT I’M DOING IS EXACTLY WHAT I’VE CAMPAIGNED ON."
BESSENT AND LUTNICK DIDN'T TELL ME TO DO 90-DAY PAUSE.
ON HIS APPROACH TO TARIFFS (USING A METAPHOR): "I AM THIS GIANT STORE. IT’S A GIANT, BEAUTIFUL STORE, AND EVERYBODY WANTS TO GO SHOPPING THERE. AND ON BEHALF OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, I OWN THE STORE, AND I SET PRICES, AND I’LL SAY, IF YOU WANT TO SHOP HERE, THIS IS WHAT YOU HAVE TO PAY."
ON THE BOND MARKET REACTION TO TARIFFS: "THE BOND MARKET WAS GETTING THE YIPS, BUT I WASN’T."
*TRUMP SAID WOULD CONSIDER IT A "TOTAL VICTORY" IF U.S. TARIFFS ARE AS HIGH AS 50% IN A YEAR.
*TRUMP SAID HE WOULDN'T CALL XI UNLESS XI CALLED HIM FIRST
*TRUMP SAID CHINA'S XI HAS CALLED HIM
*ON WHEN DID XI CALLED? HE'S CALLED. AND I DON'T THINK THAT'S A SIGN OF WEAKNESS ON HIS BEHALF.
ON CHINA TRADE TALKS: HE EXPECTS DEALS ANNOUNCED SOON. "THERE’S A NUMBER AT WHICH THEY WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE. BUT YOU CAN’T LET THEM MAKE A TRILLION DOLLARS ON US."
ON WHETHER HE'D LIKE TO BE REMEMBERED FOR EXPANDING AMERICAN TERRITORY: "I WOULDN’T MIND."
TRUMP SAID "CRIMEA WILL STAY WITH RUSSIA."
ON HIS SECOND TERM COMPARED TO HIS FIRST: "LAST TIME I WAS FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL. THIS TIME I’M FIGHTING FOR THE WORLD."
ON RUNNING FOR A THIRD TERM: "THERE ARE SOME LOOPHOLES THAT HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED, BUT I DON’T BELIEVE IN LOOPHOLES."
TRUMP: TRADE DEALS EXPECTED IN NEXT THREE TO FOUR WEEKS
ON HIS ACTIONS IN OFFICE: "WHAT I’M DOING IS EXACTLY WHAT I’VE CAMPAIGNED ON."
BESSENT AND LUTNICK DIDN'T TELL ME TO DO 90-DAY PAUSE.
ON HIS APPROACH TO TARIFFS (USING A METAPHOR): "I AM THIS GIANT STORE. IT’S A GIANT, BEAUTIFUL STORE, AND EVERYBODY WANTS TO GO SHOPPING THERE. AND ON BEHALF OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, I OWN THE STORE, AND I SET PRICES, AND I’LL SAY, IF YOU WANT TO SHOP HERE, THIS IS WHAT YOU HAVE TO PAY."
ON THE BOND MARKET REACTION TO TARIFFS: "THE BOND MARKET WAS GETTING THE YIPS, BUT I WASN’T."
*TRUMP SAID WOULD CONSIDER IT A "TOTAL VICTORY" IF U.S. TARIFFS ARE AS HIGH AS 50% IN A YEAR.
*TRUMP SAID HE WOULDN'T CALL XI UNLESS XI CALLED HIM FIRST
*TRUMP SAID CHINA'S XI HAS CALLED HIM
*ON WHEN DID XI CALLED? HE'S CALLED. AND I DON'T THINK THAT'S A SIGN OF WEAKNESS ON HIS BEHALF.
ON CHINA TRADE TALKS: HE EXPECTS DEALS ANNOUNCED SOON. "THERE’S A NUMBER AT WHICH THEY WILL FEEL COMFORTABLE. BUT YOU CAN’T LET THEM MAKE A TRILLION DOLLARS ON US."
ON WHETHER HE'D LIKE TO BE REMEMBERED FOR EXPANDING AMERICAN TERRITORY: "I WOULDN’T MIND."
TRUMP SAID "CRIMEA WILL STAY WITH RUSSIA."
ON HIS SECOND TERM COMPARED TO HIS FIRST: "LAST TIME I WAS FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL. THIS TIME I’M FIGHTING FOR THE WORLD."
ON RUNNING FOR A THIRD TERM: "THERE ARE SOME LOOPHOLES THAT HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED, BUT I DON’T BELIEVE IN LOOPHOLES."
TRUMP: TRADE DEALS EXPECTED IN NEXT THREE TO FOUR WEEKS
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CHINA, U.S. NOT HAVING ANY TALKS ON TARIFFS; US SHOULD STOP CREATING CONFUSION- CHINESE EMBASSY
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*TRUMP: WON’T DROP CHINA TARIFFS UNLESS THEY GIVE US SOMETHING
*TRUMP: ANOTHER TARIFF PAUSE IS UNLIKELY
*TRUMP: ANOTHER TARIFF PAUSE IS UNLIKELY
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CHINA: THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY CALLS WITH THE US RECENTLY
CHINA: WE ARE NOT ENGAGED WITH TRADE TALKS WITH THE US
CHINA: PRESIDENTS XI, TRUMP DID NOT HAVE CALL RECENTLY
CHINA: WE ARE NOT ENGAGED WITH TRADE TALKS WITH THE US
CHINA: PRESIDENTS XI, TRUMP DID NOT HAVE CALL RECENTLY
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infinityhedge
The Week Ahead | infinityhedge Mon/21: Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase Tue/22: Earth Day *IMF World Economic Outlook report *Stablecoin Giant Circle To Launch a New Payments, Remittance Network aiming to rival Mastercard & Visa *Tesla Q1 Earnings…
The Week Ahead | infinityhedge | BIG WEEK
Mon/28:
*US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
*Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
*Amazon to launch the first 27 satellites for its Project Kuiper fast internet network, a competitor to Elon Musk’s Starlink
Tue/29:
*Howard Lutnick speaks at 2PM ET
*U.S. JOLTS Job Openings & CB Consumer Confidence
*Meta’s LlamaCon (AI developer conference): New AI Models
*Earnings: Spotify, PayPal, Visa
Wed/30: 100th day of Donald Trump’s presidency: ‘Worst 100 Days Since WW II’
*US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
*U.S. Q1 GDP: BBG estimate real GDP decelerated sharply in the first quarter to 0.4%, from 2.4% in the final quarter of 2024
*U.S. PCE
*Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood
*Crypto: Token2049 Conference. Speakers: Eric Trump, Emad Mostaque, Robert M. (BlackRock), Mathew M. (GS), Tarun C.(Gauntlet), Zach W. (World Liberty), etc
*Worldcoin's “At Last” event: Sam Altman will join the Event
Thu/01: May Day
*BoJ Interest Rate Decision: expected to keep rate unchanged
*U.S. Manufacturing PMI
*Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Reddit, MicroStrategy
*Token Unlock: SUI $270M (2.3%)
Fri/02:
*U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected to show a 130k increase — about 100k less than the larger-than-expected March gain
*De Minimis tariff exemptions, which currently allow packages worth $800 or less from China & Hong Kong to enter the US duty-free will end & now will face new tariffs and fees; Shein raised US Prices as Much as 377% Ahead of Tariff Increases
*Token Unlock: OMNI $40M (83.3%)
Sat/03:
*U.S. 25% tariffs on imported vehicles as well as 25% tariffs on imported auto parts scheduled to take effect; Trump administration is considering reducing certain tariffs targeting the auto industry though nothing decided yet
*Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
TBA/Whole Week:
*TradeFi: Trump-Tariffs, Earnings Season: Capital Expenditures, buybacks, blackout period
*Crypto: Token Unlocks, Ethereum's Pectra Upgrade
*World: AI events, US-Ukraine Mineral Deal & Peace Talks, India-Pak Conflict, Middle East Conflict
*Rumours: DeepSeek R2 model release?, US might announce trade deal with India?
*More about the week Ahead and What Happened last week: https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-8ae
Mon/28:
*US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
*Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
*Amazon to launch the first 27 satellites for its Project Kuiper fast internet network, a competitor to Elon Musk’s Starlink
Tue/29:
*Howard Lutnick speaks at 2PM ET
*U.S. JOLTS Job Openings & CB Consumer Confidence
*Meta’s LlamaCon (AI developer conference): New AI Models
*Earnings: Spotify, PayPal, Visa
Wed/30: 100th day of Donald Trump’s presidency: ‘Worst 100 Days Since WW II’
*US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
*U.S. Q1 GDP: BBG estimate real GDP decelerated sharply in the first quarter to 0.4%, from 2.4% in the final quarter of 2024
*U.S. PCE
*Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood
*Crypto: Token2049 Conference. Speakers: Eric Trump, Emad Mostaque, Robert M. (BlackRock), Mathew M. (GS), Tarun C.(Gauntlet), Zach W. (World Liberty), etc
*Worldcoin's “At Last” event: Sam Altman will join the Event
Thu/01: May Day
*BoJ Interest Rate Decision: expected to keep rate unchanged
*U.S. Manufacturing PMI
*Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Reddit, MicroStrategy
*Token Unlock: SUI $270M (2.3%)
Fri/02:
*U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected to show a 130k increase — about 100k less than the larger-than-expected March gain
*De Minimis tariff exemptions, which currently allow packages worth $800 or less from China & Hong Kong to enter the US duty-free will end & now will face new tariffs and fees; Shein raised US Prices as Much as 377% Ahead of Tariff Increases
*Token Unlock: OMNI $40M (83.3%)
Sat/03:
*U.S. 25% tariffs on imported vehicles as well as 25% tariffs on imported auto parts scheduled to take effect; Trump administration is considering reducing certain tariffs targeting the auto industry though nothing decided yet
*Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting
TBA/Whole Week:
*TradeFi: Trump-Tariffs, Earnings Season: Capital Expenditures, buybacks, blackout period
*Crypto: Token Unlocks, Ethereum's Pectra Upgrade
*World: AI events, US-Ukraine Mineral Deal & Peace Talks, India-Pak Conflict, Middle East Conflict
*Rumours: DeepSeek R2 model release?, US might announce trade deal with India?
*More about the week Ahead and What Happened last week: https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-8ae
Substack
The 7 days
Ahead:
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