POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE SUMMARY:

*POWELL: ECONOMY CALLS FOR MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE STANCE FOR NOW

POWELL: ECONOMY NOT BEHAVING AS THOUGH MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE POLICY IS HOLDING IT BACK

POWELL: EXPECT TO HAVE MORE INFORMATION IN COMING MONTHS

POWELL: ON THE DISSENTS, WHAT YOU WANT IS A CLEAR EXPLANATION AND WE HAD THAT TODAY; PEOPLE THOUGHT CAREFULLY ABOUT THIS AND PUT THEIR POSITIONS OUT THERE

POWELL: GDP WAS RIGHT IN LINE WITH WHAT WE EXPECTED, BUT STILL DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET BECAUSE OF NET EXPORTS SWINGS

POWELL: STATEMENT ABOUT UNCERTAINTY REFLECTS CHANGE SINCE LAST MEETING, IT HAD NOT DIMINISHED FURTHER SINCE JUNE MEETING

POWELL: MANY UNCERTAINTIES LEFT TO RESOLVE; FEELS LIKE THERE'S MUCH MORE TO COME

POWELL: COULD SAY FED LOOKING THROUGH INFLATION BY NOT HIKING

*POWELL: TARIFF PASSTHROUGH TO PRICES MAY BE SLOWER THAN THOUGHT

*POWELL: WHAT WE SEE NOW IS VERY BEGINNING OF TARIFF INFLATION

POWELL: REASONABLE BASE CASE IS SHORT-LIVED TARIFF INFLATION IMPACT

POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING HAD BEEN VERY VERY STRONG FOR LAST FEW YEARS AND NOW MAYBE IT HAS FINALLY SLOWED DOWN

POWELL: DON'T SEE FISCAL BILL AS PARTICULARLY STIMULATIVE

*POWELL: WE DON'T CONSIDER COST TO GOVERNMENT OF RATE CHANGES

*POWELL: INFLATION IS FURTHER FROM OUR GOAL THAN EMPLOYMENT

POWELL: TOTALITY OF DATA SHOW YOU'VE GOT A SOLID LABOR MARKET

TRADERS PRICE IN LESS THAN 50% CHANCE OF SEPTEMBER RATE CUT

*MICROSOFT 4Q EPS $3.65, EST. $3.37

*MICROSOFT 4Q REV. $76.44B, EST. $73.89B

*MICROSOFT 4Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $29.88B, EST. $29.1B

*MICROSOFT'S AZURE SURPASSED $75B IN REV. THIS YEAR, UP 34%

*META 2Q EPS $7.14, EST. $5.89

*META 2Q REV. $47.52B, EST. $44.83B

*META SEES 3Q REV. $47.5B TO $50.5B, EST. $46.2B

*META SEES FY TOTAL EXPENSES $114B TO $118B, SAW $113B TO $118B

*META SEES 2025 CAPEX $66B-$72B VS PRIOR $64B-$72B

META & MSFT AFTER MONSTER EARNINGS:

*MICROSOFT SHARES UP 7% (ATH)
*META SHARES UP 10% (ATH)

MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS STRATEGY'S Q2 EARNINGS CALL "WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT IN THE HISTORY OF STRATEGY"

EARNINGS: JULY 31, 5PM ET

*US JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%
*US JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*US JUNE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US JUNE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%

CORE PCE INFLATION SLIGHTLY HIGHER, REDUCING CHANCES OF SEPTEMBER RATE CUT

MICROSOFT BECAME THE WORLD'S SECOND $4 TRILLION COMPANY

*COINBASE 2Q TOTAL REV. $1.50B, EST. $1.59B

*COINBASE 2Q TRADING VOLUME $237B, EST. $252.76B

*COINBASE 2Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $655.8M, EST. $715.2M

*COINBASE 2Q TRANSACTION REV. $764.3M, EST. $810M

*COINBASE SEES 3Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $665M TO $745M

*COINBASE DOWN 8% AFTER EARNINGS

*Coinbase is planning to launch tokenized real-world assets, stocks, derivatives, prediction markets and early-stage token sales in the next few months.

*APPLE 3Q EPS $1.57, EST. $1.43

*APPLE 3Q REV. $94.04B, EST. $89.3B

*APPLE 3Q IPHONE REVENUE $44.58B, EST. $40.06B

*APPLE 3Q GREATER CHINA REV. $15.37B, EST. $15.19B

APPLE CEO TIM COOK SAID CO ESTIMATES PURCHASES AHEAD OF TARIFFS DROVE 1 PERCENTAGE POINT OF NEARLY 10% SALES GROWTH IN FISCAL THIRD QUARTER

TRUMP RAISES TARIFF ON CANADA TO 35% FROM 25% EFFECTIVE AUG 1

TRUMP SIGNED TARIFF EXECUTIVE ORDER

US TO IMPOSE 20% TARIFF ON TAIWAN

US TO IMPOSE 15% TARIFF ON VENEZUELA, SOUTH KOREA

US SETS 19% TARIFF ON THAILAND, MALAYSIA, VIETNAM

US TO IMPOSE 39% TARIFF ON SWITZERLAND

TRUMP: JEROME “TOO LATE” POWELL, A STUBBORN MORON, MUST SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER INTEREST RATES, NOW. IF HE CONTINUES TO REFUSE, THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE!

BIG EVENT COMING TODAY:

US JULY NFP:
*Est.: 104K, Prev.: 147k
*BofA: 60k
*GS: 100k
*JPM: 100k
*Reuters: 102k
*BBG: 160k

SPX implied Move:
*>125k: up +0.5% to 1.5%
*100k-125k: Bass Case
*<100k: down 0.25% to 2.5%

*BBG: NFP estimates suggest a bigger surprise is more likely, leading to a potentially outsized reaction in rates & bond markets due to low volatility. Yields are fairly unperturbed by the latest tariff announcements, but they may not remain so after today’s jobs data. Beyond the latest jobs figures, the bond market still needs to see cooling inflation over the next two months to help convince enough FED to follow through on their projected two rate cuts forecast in June.

*S&P 500 Index hasn't seen a daily move of ±1% for the whole month, it's longest streak in two years

ICYMI:
*Trump placed avg. 18% tariffs on trading partners effective Aug. 7
*Strategy said that Below 2.5x mNAV it will not not issue MSTR ATM for buying BTC except for debt interest payments & preferred dividends

US JULY NFP 73K

TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN OCTOBER FED RATE CUT

TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN TWO FED RATE CUTS BY END-2025

MASSIVE DOWNWARD REVISION IN NFP: -258K

MAY NFP REVISED DOWN TO +19k FROM 144K

JUNE NFP REVISED DOWN TO +14K FROM 147K

*UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.248%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2021

*Accounting for the big downward revisions to the past two months, payrolls have risen by just 35,000 on average over the last three months. That is certainly the weakest pace of hiring since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

*Fed is in a similar spot as last year - held steady in July, then panicked after bad August jobs data & over-corrected in September by cutting rate, Now they've got tariffs added to equation complicating things.

MARKET EXTENDING LOSSES

S&P 500 DOWN 2%
NVIDIA DOWN 3%
STRATEGY DOWN 6%
CIRCLE DOWN 8%
ROBINHOOD DOWN 9%
COINBASE DOWN 16%

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon/04
*Saylor NOT expected to announce BTC purchase
*Earnings: PLTR
*BoJ Meeting minutes, Japan 10Y JGB auction

Tue/05:
*U.S. July ISM services, Trade Data
*Earnings: AMD, Uber, GLXY

Wed/06:
*U.S. 10Y Note auction
*Fed Cook Speech
*Earnings: MCD

Thu/07
*China Trade Data, Gold Reserves update
*BOE expected to cut rates
*Earnings: HUT, XYZ
*Trump’s reciprocal tariffs come into effect (Avg. tariffs highest since World War II era)

Fri/08
*China’s World Robot Conference
*Trump’s deadline for Russia to respond to a deal to end the Ukraine war (US considering secondary sanctions & tariffs of up to 100% to 500% on countries buying russian oil unless russia respond to a deal or countries stop buying its oil [China & India both rejected to stop buying russian oil per reports])

Sat/09: Fed Bowman Speech

Whole Week: GPT-5 launch, Tariffs Week, Roman Storm trial, Coinbase to integrate DEXs into the Coinbase app, token2049 Event(1-2 OCT., get your tickets), Trump to Name New Fed Governor, Jobs Data Head in Coming Days

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-e49

TRUMP: I WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY RAISING THE TARIFF PAID BY INDIA

Trump: India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA

COINBASE TO RAISE $2B THROUGH CONVERTIBLE NOTES OFFERING WITH $1B DUE 2029, $1B DUE 2032

*TRUMP: TARIFF OF 35% ON EU IF DOESN'T MEET OBLIGATIONS

Trump: They paid $600B and because of that I reduced their tariff from 30% down to 15%. That's a gift, that's not a loan. The details are $600B to invest in anything I want.