MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS STRATEGY'S Q2 EARNINGS CALL "WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT IN THE HISTORY OF STRATEGY"

EARNINGS: JULY 31, 5PM ET

*US JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%
*US JUNE CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*US JUNE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US JUNE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%

CORE PCE INFLATION SLIGHTLY HIGHER, REDUCING CHANCES OF SEPTEMBER RATE CUT

MICROSOFT BECAME THE WORLD'S SECOND $4 TRILLION COMPANY

*COINBASE 2Q TOTAL REV. $1.50B, EST. $1.59B

*COINBASE 2Q TRADING VOLUME $237B, EST. $252.76B

*COINBASE 2Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $655.8M, EST. $715.2M

*COINBASE 2Q TRANSACTION REV. $764.3M, EST. $810M

*COINBASE SEES 3Q SUBSCRIPTION & SERVICES REV. $665M TO $745M

*COINBASE DOWN 8% AFTER EARNINGS

*Coinbase is planning to launch tokenized real-world assets, stocks, derivatives, prediction markets and early-stage token sales in the next few months.

*APPLE 3Q EPS $1.57, EST. $1.43

*APPLE 3Q REV. $94.04B, EST. $89.3B

*APPLE 3Q IPHONE REVENUE $44.58B, EST. $40.06B

*APPLE 3Q GREATER CHINA REV. $15.37B, EST. $15.19B

APPLE CEO TIM COOK SAID CO ESTIMATES PURCHASES AHEAD OF TARIFFS DROVE 1 PERCENTAGE POINT OF NEARLY 10% SALES GROWTH IN FISCAL THIRD QUARTER

TRUMP RAISES TARIFF ON CANADA TO 35% FROM 25% EFFECTIVE AUG 1

TRUMP SIGNED TARIFF EXECUTIVE ORDER

US TO IMPOSE 20% TARIFF ON TAIWAN

US TO IMPOSE 15% TARIFF ON VENEZUELA, SOUTH KOREA

US SETS 19% TARIFF ON THAILAND, MALAYSIA, VIETNAM

US TO IMPOSE 39% TARIFF ON SWITZERLAND

TRUMP: JEROME “TOO LATE” POWELL, A STUBBORN MORON, MUST SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER INTEREST RATES, NOW. IF HE CONTINUES TO REFUSE, THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE!

BIG EVENT COMING TODAY:

US JULY NFP:
*Est.: 104K, Prev.: 147k
*BofA: 60k
*GS: 100k
*JPM: 100k
*Reuters: 102k
*BBG: 160k

SPX implied Move:
*>125k: up +0.5% to 1.5%
*100k-125k: Bass Case
*<100k: down 0.25% to 2.5%

*BBG: NFP estimates suggest a bigger surprise is more likely, leading to a potentially outsized reaction in rates & bond markets due to low volatility. Yields are fairly unperturbed by the latest tariff announcements, but they may not remain so after today’s jobs data. Beyond the latest jobs figures, the bond market still needs to see cooling inflation over the next two months to help convince enough FED to follow through on their projected two rate cuts forecast in June.

*S&P 500 Index hasn't seen a daily move of ±1% for the whole month, it's longest streak in two years

ICYMI:
*Trump placed avg. 18% tariffs on trading partners effective Aug. 7
*Strategy said that Below 2.5x mNAV it will not not issue MSTR ATM for buying BTC except for debt interest payments & preferred dividends

US JULY NFP 73K

TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN OCTOBER FED RATE CUT

TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN TWO FED RATE CUTS BY END-2025

MASSIVE DOWNWARD REVISION IN NFP: -258K

MAY NFP REVISED DOWN TO +19k FROM 144K

JUNE NFP REVISED DOWN TO +14K FROM 147K

*UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.248%, HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2021

*Accounting for the big downward revisions to the past two months, payrolls have risen by just 35,000 on average over the last three months. That is certainly the weakest pace of hiring since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

*Fed is in a similar spot as last year - held steady in July, then panicked after bad August jobs data & over-corrected in September by cutting rate, Now they've got tariffs added to equation complicating things.

MARKET EXTENDING LOSSES

S&P 500 DOWN 2%
NVIDIA DOWN 3%
STRATEGY DOWN 6%
CIRCLE DOWN 8%
ROBINHOOD DOWN 9%
COINBASE DOWN 16%

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon/04
*Saylor NOT expected to announce BTC purchase
*Earnings: PLTR
*BoJ Meeting minutes, Japan 10Y JGB auction

Tue/05:
*U.S. July ISM services, Trade Data
*Earnings: AMD, Uber, GLXY

Wed/06:
*U.S. 10Y Note auction
*Fed Cook Speech
*Earnings: MCD

Thu/07
*China Trade Data, Gold Reserves update
*BOE expected to cut rates
*Earnings: HUT, XYZ
*Trump’s reciprocal tariffs come into effect (Avg. tariffs highest since World War II era)

Fri/08
*China’s World Robot Conference
*Trump’s deadline for Russia to respond to a deal to end the Ukraine war (US considering secondary sanctions & tariffs of up to 100% to 500% on countries buying russian oil unless russia respond to a deal or countries stop buying its oil [China & India both rejected to stop buying russian oil per reports])

Sat/09: Fed Bowman Speech

Whole Week: GPT-5 launch, Tariffs Week, Roman Storm trial, Coinbase to integrate DEXs into the Coinbase app, token2049 Event(1-2 OCT., get your tickets), Trump to Name New Fed Governor, Jobs Data Head in Coming Days

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-e49

TRUMP: I WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY RAISING THE TARIFF PAID BY INDIA

Trump: India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA

COINBASE TO RAISE $2B THROUGH CONVERTIBLE NOTES OFFERING WITH $1B DUE 2029, $1B DUE 2032

*TRUMP: TARIFF OF 35% ON EU IF DOESN'T MEET OBLIGATIONS

Trump: They paid $600B and because of that I reduced their tariff from 30% down to 15%. That's a gift, that's not a loan. The details are $600B to invest in anything I want.

TRUMP: WE'LL BE PUTTING AN INTIALLY SMALL TARIFF ON PHARMA

*TRUMP: PHARMA TARIFF WILL BE SMALL, WILL GO TO 250% EVENTUALLY

GOOGLE DEEPMIND ANNOUNCED GENIE 3, THE FIRST REAL-TIME INTERACTIVE WORLD MODEL THAT CREATES WORLDS FROM TEXT PROMPTS

Google Deepmind: World models are a key stepping stone on the path to AGI, promising unlimited rich simulations for training AI agents. Genie 3 represents a significant leap forward in making this a reality.

Genie 3, the most advanced world simulator ever created, enabled by numerous research breakthroughs.

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/genie-3-a-new-frontier-for-world-models/

ELEVENLABS LAUNCHED 'ELEVEN MUSIC' THE HIGHEST QUALITY AI MUSIC MODEL

OPENAI RELEASED GPT-OSS: OPEN SOURCE MODEL

OpenAI released two open-weight reasoning models—gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b—under an Apache 2.0 license.

*gpt-oss-120b matches OpenAI o4-mini on core benchmarks and exceeds it in narrow domains like competitive math or health-related questions, all while fitting on a single 80GB GPU (or high-end laptop).

*gpt-oss-20b fits on devices as small as 16GB, while matching or exceeding OpenAI o3-mini.

Sam Altman: We made an open model that performs at the level of o4-mini and runs on a high-end laptop (WTF!!) (and a smaller one that runs on a phone). We believe this is the best and most usable open model in the world.

https://openai.com/open-models