Foreword/Context
Hello, for those who do not know me, quick introduction:
I go under alias “RunnerXBT”, the same username I use on:
- Twitter
- YouTube
- Telegram
I trade crypto for a trading firm (Definition)
Our shop denominates in BTC and has done so for over 10 years now.
We only trade crypto and crypto only.
Almost 100% of my trading collateral is in spot Bitcoin almost 100% of the time.
We focus on Discretionary trading (manual) using mine and other traders judgement. Therefore my job as a trader is to outperform BTC.
To do so I mainly use Orderflow, price action patterns and sentiment analysis.
All of the information I use for my analysis is publicly available.
My go-to setups include Narrative trades, News trading & liquidations reversal setups.
What I plan to share in this channel is how I approach our trades, my decision making process. Some education but first and foremost it will serve as my personal blog/diary.
I encourage readers to never copy trade me or anybody else on the internet, but rather to understand the decision making process and analysis so that one can make their own judgement.
something something "Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime" something something
Nothing here constitutes as financial advice and should be consumed for entertainment purposes only.
First overall market and BTC-breakdown coming soon🏃♀️
Hello, for those who do not know me, quick introduction:
I go under alias “RunnerXBT”, the same username I use on:
- YouTube
- Telegram
I trade crypto for a trading firm (Definition)
Our shop denominates in BTC and has done so for over 10 years now.
We only trade crypto and crypto only.
Almost 100% of my trading collateral is in spot Bitcoin almost 100% of the time.
We focus on Discretionary trading (manual) using mine and other traders judgement. Therefore my job as a trader is to outperform BTC.
To do so I mainly use Orderflow, price action patterns and sentiment analysis.
All of the information I use for my analysis is publicly available.
My go-to setups include Narrative trades, News trading & liquidations reversal setups.
What I plan to share in this channel is how I approach our trades, my decision making process. Some education but first and foremost it will serve as my personal blog/diary.
I encourage readers to never copy trade me or anybody else on the internet, but rather to understand the decision making process and analysis so that one can make their own judgement.
something something "Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime" something something
Nothing here constitutes as financial advice and should be consumed for entertainment purposes only.
First overall market and BTC-breakdown coming soon
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
BTC Trade(s) - US elections
Short version: (TLDR)
-Looking to hedge some of our BTC spot longs (go short below 1x leverage), closer to the election, the better, most likely via TWAP/Scaled Orders
- Trump winning seems to be priced in (BTC price action, ETF flows, MSTR insane pump)
- Ideally said trade plays out as January 2024 BTC spot ETF approval (Rally into, sell right after for a short period of time) - then LONG again
- Kamala wins = market short a lot of BTC and DOGE (DOGE is rallying due to Elon Musk involvement in Trumps campaign)
Full thesis (longer read, reasoning, analysis):
Bitcoin is king has been a trade we have ridden since FTX fallout (not because we were geniuses, but because of our shop ethos/belief to denominate in BTC)
Bitcoin Strength is in our opinion healthy (and usual) progression of each crypto cycle
Bitcoin Strength can be proven in several ways:
1) Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 60.25% (up 16,8% YTD)
2) Sheer amount of BTC spot ETF inflows (Most successful ETF launch ever, (+5.63 bn USD inflows in last month alone, source)
Year-to-date Returns:
BTC +71,74%
ETH +16%
SOL +73%
while OTHERS/BTC is down_only.exe
(Crypto Total market Cap Excluding Top 10 compared to BTC)
I believe the following is natural and healthy progression:
1) BTC/USD makes new ATH, while BTC.D keeps climbing upwards with it
2) Market-wide correction, when already struggling altcoins dump aggressively and make new ALT/BTC lows (and bottom here)
3) ETH starts leading, you see BTC.D collapse, ETH/BTC moons, altcoins run with it (crypto twitter starts cycle-jerking over altseason)
(we are in still in Stage 1, which is happy days for everyone, because ETH leading is Late Cycle behaviour)
What makes me worried (why I am looking to hedge our spot longs around and into elections) - data/arguments/scenarios:
Scenario 1: The Easiest/Most straight forward
Kamala Wins = I expect Markets will derisk big-time if that happens, expecting big unwind in BTC, MSTR, DOGE, DJT.
I think DOGE short with Kamala winning is the most straight forward trade out there, we can also easily scale into it very easily as its very liquid.
Big part of DOGE run-up last few weeks has been Elon Musk being big part of Trumps Rally/Campaign circuit. All that goes to drain if she wins.
Scenario 2: More difficult - nuanced approach
Trump Wins = But its priced in
(please if you reading all the way to here, read the "Execution/Navigating the position"
I believe there are many reasons to believe that Trump winning is at least in crypto-native mind consensus and becomes increasingly priced in with positioning into November 5th (election day)
1) BTC spot ETF record inflows (source)
Last 30 days: +5,63b USD of inflows
Last 7 days: +3b USD of inflows (working days)
2) Orderflow/Positioning
Since October 25th there has been a significant increase in Open Interest (effectively amount of leverage in the system) in BTC and Options Market too (source VeloData)
(If you dont know what orderflow/VeloData is - I have made a Tutorial - click link)
I am worried a lot of the "fresh longs" are taking the Trump Win BTC long, which I expect many to simply take profit.
With amount of aggression in positioning and overall volatility, paired with TradFi volatility, macro and geopolitical headlines - i can see the cascade become very aggressive
Best example I can give is January 2024 - BTC spot ETF approval: (See for yourself in TradingView on Daily chart)
BTC rallied on day of Approval, then on Day 1 of Launch of spot ETFs. then had 15% correction or so.
3. TradFi Up-Only
Especially since approval and launch of BTC spot ETF products in January this year, we have become ever so correlated to TradFi (SP500 / Nasdaq)
Another level of worry to me is TradFi continuously making new all-time-highs
Simply Put: TradFi correct post elections -> BTC follows (I think, at least)
Execution/Navigating the position
I am writing this on Thursday October 31st
US elections are on November 5th (6 days away or 3 working days away) - this is very important differentiation for me
Short version: (TLDR)
-Looking to hedge some of our BTC spot longs (go short below 1x leverage), closer to the election, the better, most likely via TWAP/Scaled Orders
- Trump winning seems to be priced in (BTC price action, ETF flows, MSTR insane pump)
- Ideally said trade plays out as January 2024 BTC spot ETF approval (Rally into, sell right after for a short period of time) - then LONG again
- Kamala wins = market short a lot of BTC and DOGE (DOGE is rallying due to Elon Musk involvement in Trumps campaign)
Full thesis (longer read, reasoning, analysis):
Bitcoin is king has been a trade we have ridden since FTX fallout (not because we were geniuses, but because of our shop ethos/belief to denominate in BTC)
Bitcoin Strength is in our opinion healthy (and usual) progression of each crypto cycle
Bitcoin Strength can be proven in several ways:
1) Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 60.25% (up 16,8% YTD)
2) Sheer amount of BTC spot ETF inflows (Most successful ETF launch ever, (+5.63 bn USD inflows in last month alone, source)
Year-to-date Returns:
BTC +71,74%
ETH +16%
SOL +73%
while OTHERS/BTC is down_only.exe
(Crypto Total market Cap Excluding Top 10 compared to BTC)
I believe the following is natural and healthy progression:
1) BTC/USD makes new ATH, while BTC.D keeps climbing upwards with it
2) Market-wide correction, when already struggling altcoins dump aggressively and make new ALT/BTC lows (and bottom here)
3) ETH starts leading, you see BTC.D collapse, ETH/BTC moons, altcoins run with it (crypto twitter starts cycle-jerking over altseason)
(we are in still in Stage 1, which is happy days for everyone, because ETH leading is Late Cycle behaviour)
What makes me worried (why I am looking to hedge our spot longs around and into elections) - data/arguments/scenarios:
Scenario 1: The Easiest/Most straight forward
Kamala Wins = I expect Markets will derisk big-time if that happens, expecting big unwind in BTC, MSTR, DOGE, DJT.
I think DOGE short with Kamala winning is the most straight forward trade out there, we can also easily scale into it very easily as its very liquid.
Big part of DOGE run-up last few weeks has been Elon Musk being big part of Trumps Rally/Campaign circuit. All that goes to drain if she wins.
Scenario 2: More difficult - nuanced approach
Trump Wins = But its priced in
(please if you reading all the way to here, read the "Execution/Navigating the position"
I believe there are many reasons to believe that Trump winning is at least in crypto-native mind consensus and becomes increasingly priced in with positioning into November 5th (election day)
1) BTC spot ETF record inflows (source)
Last 30 days: +5,63b USD of inflows
Last 7 days: +3b USD of inflows (working days)
2) Orderflow/Positioning
Since October 25th there has been a significant increase in Open Interest (effectively amount of leverage in the system) in BTC and Options Market too (source VeloData)
(If you dont know what orderflow/VeloData is - I have made a Tutorial - click link)
I am worried a lot of the "fresh longs" are taking the Trump Win BTC long, which I expect many to simply take profit.
With amount of aggression in positioning and overall volatility, paired with TradFi volatility, macro and geopolitical headlines - i can see the cascade become very aggressive
Best example I can give is January 2024 - BTC spot ETF approval: (See for yourself in TradingView on Daily chart)
BTC rallied on day of Approval, then on Day 1 of Launch of spot ETFs. then had 15% correction or so.
3. TradFi Up-Only
Especially since approval and launch of BTC spot ETF products in January this year, we have become ever so correlated to TradFi (SP500 / Nasdaq)
Another level of worry to me is TradFi continuously making new all-time-highs
Simply Put: TradFi correct post elections -> BTC follows (I think, at least)
Execution/Navigating the position
I am writing this on Thursday October 31st
US elections are on November 5th (6 days away or 3 working days away) - this is very important differentiation for me
Traditional markets are closed during the weekend, so are BTC spot ETF products.
What I am looking for in each day:
Thursday 31st:
USA PCE Price Index (tend to be volatile day) - if TradFi moons, BTC probably follows
Earnings: Apple, Amazon (some of the biggest companies in the world) strong or weak earnings will move the TradFi, therefore crypto.
+ Monthly Close (likely highest Monthly close ever) - expecting algos to go crazy
+ spot ETF inflows numbers/sentiment
Friday 1st:
USA NFPs + unemployment Rate (tend to be volatile day) - if TradFi moons, BTC probably follows
No earnings on Friday + spot ETF inflows numbers/sentiment
Saturday 2nd- Sunday 3rd:
Not expecting much - will be monitoring sentiment, polls, interviews and getting ready for Day D.
Monday 4th:
no earnings or macro events
Looking for BTC spot ETF inflows numbers
Tuesday 5th:
(Will be a separate update in the Telegram lol)
The closer to elections, past "hurdles" i mentioned above, the better.
A great thread in more context/detail from a friend "Giver" (lazyvillager) Link:
I hope any of this made any sense lol, have a good day and good luck to us all.
What I am looking for in each day:
Thursday 31st:
USA PCE Price Index (tend to be volatile day) - if TradFi moons, BTC probably follows
Earnings: Apple, Amazon (some of the biggest companies in the world) strong or weak earnings will move the TradFi, therefore crypto.
+ Monthly Close (likely highest Monthly close ever) - expecting algos to go crazy
+ spot ETF inflows numbers/sentiment
Friday 1st:
USA NFPs + unemployment Rate (tend to be volatile day) - if TradFi moons, BTC probably follows
No earnings on Friday + spot ETF inflows numbers/sentiment
Saturday 2nd- Sunday 3rd:
Not expecting much - will be monitoring sentiment, polls, interviews and getting ready for Day D.
Monday 4th:
no earnings or macro events
Looking for BTC spot ETF inflows numbers
Tuesday 5th:
(Will be a separate update in the Telegram lol)
The closer to elections, past "hurdles" i mentioned above, the better.
A great thread in more context/detail from a friend "Giver" (lazyvillager) Link:
I hope any of this made any sense lol, have a good day and good luck to us all.
image_2024-10-31_12-47-59.png
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RE: My trade "best case" scenario
I know comments/discussions are not available here - but if you have any questions - please DM me on Telegram only
Its impossible without intern to read thru e-mails/DMs on 25 different platforms
I know comments/discussions are not available here - but if you have any questions - please DM me on Telegram only
Its impossible without intern to read thru e-mails/DMs on 25 different platforms
RE: ETF flows.. they arent +1 day delayed, or day of, hear Matt Hougan explain
a very useful clip about "Biggest ETF misconceptions" from Bitwise CIO
Timestamp: 23:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg9yT_iddZs
a very useful clip about "Biggest ETF misconceptions" from Bitwise CIO
Timestamp: 23:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg9yT_iddZs
YouTube
The BTC/ETH ETF Flows Are Just Getting Started | Matt Hougan
In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss BTC vs ETH ETF flows, the biggest ETF misconceptions, and the importance of regulatory clarity. We also delve into the value of incorporating BTC in a portfolio, future crypto ETF strategies, and much…
More thoughts on the topic/November 1st:
... more words on the thesis/trade I laid out above and then thoughts on Price Action since I posted my thread above (BTC -4%)
Elections and days after:
US elections are on Tuesday November 5th
but its important to dive deeper how that day actually plays out and what to expect - when:
Polls begin to close in eastern states from 6pm US Eastern Time on Tuesday. By 8pm US ET, polls will have fully closed in more than 20 states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, will close their polls at 12am US ET
When will the election results be announced?
We should have a good sense of who will probably be president by the time polls close in Hawaii and Alaska, which is several hours after vote counting in some key eastern states will have begun.
The world may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call, especially given how tightly contested some polling has indicated the vote will be.
In 2020 the Associated Press did not declare Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am US ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016 it took until 2.29am US ET the morning after election day to declare Trump the winner.
Therefore, as European, I expect to stay up all night long from Tuesday to Wednesday morning to make sure I do not miss a single market-moving headline. Is it a bit of overkill? Absolutely, but thats what I will do.
So say we know a winner of the elections by November 6th-7th.
Right after on November 7th there is FOMC (where we get potential Rate Cut - how big?)
Even if Trump wins (good for crypto industry / our coins) - BUT
The next presidential inauguration is scheduled to be on January 20, 2025, that is a LOT of time in the meantime from say November 7th to January 20th 2025 before Trump could potentially do anything as president.
Price Action yesterday:
I believe that what we saw yesterday was simply TradFi correlation, see image below
Everything from gold/silver to SP500 & Nasdaq was selling off all day and as mentioned yesterday - we simply correlate to it.
SP500 -1,8%
Nasdaq -2,4%
BTC -4%
Shaky market reaction to Earnings (Link) & upcoming Job Report due later today
I dont personally see that as Derisking pre-elections (just yet - maybe is just my cope)
... more words on the thesis/trade I laid out above and then thoughts on Price Action since I posted my thread above (BTC -4%)
Elections and days after:
US elections are on Tuesday November 5th
but its important to dive deeper how that day actually plays out and what to expect - when:
Polls begin to close in eastern states from 6pm US Eastern Time on Tuesday. By 8pm US ET, polls will have fully closed in more than 20 states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, will close their polls at 12am US ET
When will the election results be announced?
We should have a good sense of who will probably be president by the time polls close in Hawaii and Alaska, which is several hours after vote counting in some key eastern states will have begun.
The world may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call, especially given how tightly contested some polling has indicated the vote will be.
In 2020 the Associated Press did not declare Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am US ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016 it took until 2.29am US ET the morning after election day to declare Trump the winner.
Therefore, as European, I expect to stay up all night long from Tuesday to Wednesday morning to make sure I do not miss a single market-moving headline. Is it a bit of overkill? Absolutely, but thats what I will do.
So say we know a winner of the elections by November 6th-7th.
Right after on November 7th there is FOMC (where we get potential Rate Cut - how big?)
Even if Trump wins (good for crypto industry / our coins) - BUT
The next presidential inauguration is scheduled to be on January 20, 2025, that is a LOT of time in the meantime from say November 7th to January 20th 2025 before Trump could potentially do anything as president.
Price Action yesterday:
I believe that what we saw yesterday was simply TradFi correlation, see image below
Everything from gold/silver to SP500 & Nasdaq was selling off all day and as mentioned yesterday - we simply correlate to it.
SP500 -1,8%
Nasdaq -2,4%
BTC -4%
Shaky market reaction to Earnings (Link) & upcoming Job Report due later today
I dont personally see that as Derisking pre-elections (just yet - maybe is just my cope)
Update Sunday 3/11:
Since posting my Original Thoughts few days ago, BTC and DOGE have been correcting a lot
Kamala is gaining on polls (now around 50-50%) whilst at the time of posting it was around 65-35 for Donald Trump leading. I believe that is main factor for price action of last 48 hours.
Trump "lead" dropping on sites like Polymarket
-> DJT down -> BTC down -> MSTR down -> Amount of leverage in BTC significantly down
Speaking of Open Interest (OI), I mentioned being afraid of elevated levels (that it increased a lot, very suddenly), but in last 3 days more than 10% of it has closed out, which I see as bullish.
Conclusion: with how sensitive price seems to be around each and every headline or update to Polls (Harris or Trump leading), I expect a lot of volatility to the both sides. I laid out a thesis previously for hedging our spot BTC longs with some shorts. But I am also starting to develop a scenario, where I am looking to long, as market is in my opinion, getting a more "realistic" view of Trumps winning rather than it being consensus.
I am afraid who did not short DOGE around 0.175 or so few days ago will not get a DOGE short entry anymore.
Waiting for CME open. Update on Monday. Have a good sunday. Get some rest
Since posting my Original Thoughts few days ago, BTC and DOGE have been correcting a lot
Kamala is gaining on polls (now around 50-50%) whilst at the time of posting it was around 65-35 for Donald Trump leading. I believe that is main factor for price action of last 48 hours.
Trump "lead" dropping on sites like Polymarket
-> DJT down -> BTC down -> MSTR down -> Amount of leverage in BTC significantly down
Speaking of Open Interest (OI), I mentioned being afraid of elevated levels (that it increased a lot, very suddenly), but in last 3 days more than 10% of it has closed out, which I see as bullish.
Conclusion: with how sensitive price seems to be around each and every headline or update to Polls (Harris or Trump leading), I expect a lot of volatility to the both sides. I laid out a thesis previously for hedging our spot BTC longs with some shorts. But I am also starting to develop a scenario, where I am looking to long, as market is in my opinion, getting a more "realistic" view of Trumps winning rather than it being consensus.
I am afraid who did not short DOGE around 0.175 or so few days ago will not get a DOGE short entry anymore.
Waiting for CME open. Update on Monday. Have a good sunday. Get some rest
photo_2024-11-04_17-34-19.jpg
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Update Monday 4/11:
Over the weekend we have seen Crypto Natives derisk their long-exposure (as Trump-win trade) following Ann Selzer saying that Harris is ahead in certain states.
Altcoins (OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC) got hammered once again, with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) going all the way to 60.6% (a new high - again)
How I plan to approach Tuesday/Wednesday:
Since US elections are technically starting from East Coast to West Coast, the final count/decision will technically not be known until early Wednesday (that means that it will be technically Wednesday trading session that probably matters more to me)
-> please see the Image attached
As European, I will stay up all night from Tuesday to Wednesday to see if I can catch some headlines and or guaranteed drama in the process.
Traders/Investors then have technically 2 more working days to derisk/position themselves (Today and tomorrow) for the elections - what I am looking for as proxies is BTC/USD, DJT, MSTR, US500 and US100 (+BTC ETF numbers today)
I emphasised importance of Wednesday and just day later there is FOMC, where we arguably get another rate cut.
Below is a table which should be close enough to see at what time we should know winners in Battleground/Swing states converted to CET time.
Polls had Trump drop to 50-50 tie-tie with Harris, but as of right now Trump is again leading at 60% on the Polls, BTC doesnt seem to reflect that much, however DOGE does.
Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday will be absolute chaos, If you have no edge trading lower time frames and struggle to make decisions on the fly, I would encourage you to sit on the sidelines and simply observe.
Expecting fairly calm rest of the monday. Update tomorrow
Over the weekend we have seen Crypto Natives derisk their long-exposure (as Trump-win trade) following Ann Selzer saying that Harris is ahead in certain states.
Altcoins (OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC) got hammered once again, with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) going all the way to 60.6% (a new high - again)
How I plan to approach Tuesday/Wednesday:
Since US elections are technically starting from East Coast to West Coast, the final count/decision will technically not be known until early Wednesday (that means that it will be technically Wednesday trading session that probably matters more to me)
-> please see the Image attached
As European, I will stay up all night from Tuesday to Wednesday to see if I can catch some headlines and or guaranteed drama in the process.
Traders/Investors then have technically 2 more working days to derisk/position themselves (Today and tomorrow) for the elections - what I am looking for as proxies is BTC/USD, DJT, MSTR, US500 and US100 (+BTC ETF numbers today)
I emphasised importance of Wednesday and just day later there is FOMC, where we arguably get another rate cut.
Below is a table which should be close enough to see at what time we should know winners in Battleground/Swing states converted to CET time.
Polls had Trump drop to 50-50 tie-tie with Harris, but as of right now Trump is again leading at 60% on the Polls, BTC doesnt seem to reflect that much, however DOGE does.
Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday will be absolute chaos, If you have no edge trading lower time frames and struggle to make decisions on the fly, I would encourage you to sit on the sidelines and simply observe.
Expecting fairly calm rest of the monday. Update tomorrow
November 15th Update:
BTC/USD has been pretty much up-only since Trump victory. Up +-35%.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) on the back of “Less regulation, more clarity for DeFi” retraced a few % when ETH/BTC seen a bit of life, but that strength, as per usual, was fully retraced back down. with OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC (my two favorite proxies for “Altseason”).
Altcoins with very few exceptions have been struggling. On the other hand memecoins listed on CEX exploded and yielded best returns, greatly outperforming Bitcoin (while being very liquid).
TLDR: BTC good, memecoins good, alts bad (BTC/USD up + BTC.D up + OTHERS/BTC down = good)
A lot of the strength could be seen via Coinbase Premium, which persistently stays elevated.
Robinhood/Coinbase/Binance started aggressively listing memecoins which are leading retail interest and volumes.
Trump/FOMO trade & crypto bullishness was expressed via multiple venues:
BTC +35% - new ATH
BTC spot ETFs seeing $1bn + daily inflows and some of the best days ever
MSTR buying $2bn of BTC in a week
TradFi - new ATH
MSTR +75% - new ATH (Microstrategy - effectively leveraged BTC)
COIN +90% - new mutliyear highs
TSLA + DOGE new multimonth highs (Elon Musk leading “D.O.G.E” Department of Government Efficiency)
… please read this link
My thoughts/what do I expect:
- next 4 years under Trump - our industry will flourish (no more draconial/non-existant conversation with SEC and other regulators)
- USA will become a leading hub for crypto (mining, startups, VC/investment)
- Big Fuss around "BTC strategic reserves" bill by Sen. Lummis
- Gary Gensler to resign before Trump is Inaugurated on January 20th (3 previous SEC chairmen did resign - its somewhat of a tradition)
When do altcoins run? Not just memes, but “quality” altcoins with fundamentals
As presented in the original message of this channel, I believe BTC/USD + BTC.D leading is overall healthy and good news for everybody. That to me indicated we still have room to go in the cycle. I can see two scenarios playing out. Would selfishly prefer 2).
Scenario 1: BTC consolidates (say 85-93k range), while altcoins (Alt/BTC pairs) outperform
Scenario 2: BTC corrects (single best level 72-75k), then Altcoins outperform big time.
I do see 100k as a big psychological level for a lot of market participants, especially those who have been around for multiple cycles. BTC 100k is pivotal (+- few 😵
I understand Scenario 2) feels very far fetched and I dont give it high probability of playing out, but if it was to play out, that is Merry Christmas for everyone.
Personally given my conservative nature and approach to risk, I will be focusing all my energy and time on SOL. I think SOL, being the playground for all the onchain/meme-degeneracy for this cycle, should see new ATH in USD pair. Therefore I am looking to buy “as much SOL as possible as low as possible”. I have already started accumulating with many limits all the way down to 160.
I believe SOL is last cycles ETH, while SUI is this cycles SOL.
If I get filled on everything, Merry Christmas.
BTC/USD has been pretty much up-only since Trump victory. Up +-35%.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) on the back of “Less regulation, more clarity for DeFi” retraced a few % when ETH/BTC seen a bit of life, but that strength, as per usual, was fully retraced back down. with OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC (my two favorite proxies for “Altseason”).
Altcoins with very few exceptions have been struggling. On the other hand memecoins listed on CEX exploded and yielded best returns, greatly outperforming Bitcoin (while being very liquid).
TLDR: BTC good, memecoins good, alts bad (BTC/USD up + BTC.D up + OTHERS/BTC down = good)
A lot of the strength could be seen via Coinbase Premium, which persistently stays elevated.
Robinhood/Coinbase/Binance started aggressively listing memecoins which are leading retail interest and volumes.
Trump/FOMO trade & crypto bullishness was expressed via multiple venues:
BTC +35% - new ATH
BTC spot ETFs seeing $1bn + daily inflows and some of the best days ever
MSTR buying $2bn of BTC in a week
TradFi - new ATH
MSTR +75% - new ATH (Microstrategy - effectively leveraged BTC)
COIN +90% - new mutliyear highs
TSLA + DOGE new multimonth highs (Elon Musk leading “D.O.G.E” Department of Government Efficiency)
… please read this link
My thoughts/what do I expect:
- next 4 years under Trump - our industry will flourish (no more draconial/non-existant conversation with SEC and other regulators)
- USA will become a leading hub for crypto (mining, startups, VC/investment)
- Big Fuss around "BTC strategic reserves" bill by Sen. Lummis
- Gary Gensler to resign before Trump is Inaugurated on January 20th (3 previous SEC chairmen did resign - its somewhat of a tradition)
When do altcoins run? Not just memes, but “quality” altcoins with fundamentals
As presented in the original message of this channel, I believe BTC/USD + BTC.D leading is overall healthy and good news for everybody. That to me indicated we still have room to go in the cycle. I can see two scenarios playing out. Would selfishly prefer 2).
Scenario 1: BTC consolidates (say 85-93k range), while altcoins (Alt/BTC pairs) outperform
Scenario 2: BTC corrects (single best level 72-75k), then Altcoins outperform big time.
I do see 100k as a big psychological level for a lot of market participants, especially those who have been around for multiple cycles. BTC 100k is pivotal (+- few 😵
I understand Scenario 2) feels very far fetched and I dont give it high probability of playing out, but if it was to play out, that is Merry Christmas for everyone.
Personally given my conservative nature and approach to risk, I will be focusing all my energy and time on SOL. I think SOL, being the playground for all the onchain/meme-degeneracy for this cycle, should see new ATH in USD pair. Therefore I am looking to buy “as much SOL as possible as low as possible”. I have already started accumulating with many limits all the way down to 160.
I believe SOL is last cycles ETH, while SUI is this cycles SOL.
If I get filled on everything, Merry Christmas.
Yahoo Finance
The FOMO market is back: Morning Brief
The recent surge in stocks is absolutely explained by the Trump trade. But it's not the only thing going on: There are other reasons why the FOMO trade is back.
In my opinion single most important podcast you can watch this week
Michael Saylor explaining BTC strategy.
TLDR: As long as MSTR Premium is high, he will keep buying BTC,
Recommend bookmarking this Link link:
Michael Saylor explaining BTC strategy.
TLDR: As long as MSTR Premium is high, he will keep buying BTC,
Recommend bookmarking this Link link:
Obviously the Title of the Podcast is clickbait by Patrick Bet-David, but highly encourage everyone to listen Saylor explain why are they aping 7bn worth of BTC in last 2 weeks
And I personally think that last few days have been Microstrategy again
with ETF issuers buying yesterday another 800m worth of BTC again.
There is just no chance in hell almost any altcoin can outperform BTC with such heavy buy pressure for BTC.
I also do not see BTC spot ETF issuers or Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) or Potentially USA BTC Strategic reserves rotating out of BTC to any altcoin. Wont happen.
BTC still a king.
And I personally think that last few days have been Microstrategy again
with ETF issuers buying yesterday another 800m worth of BTC again.
There is just no chance in hell almost any altcoin can outperform BTC with such heavy buy pressure for BTC.
I also do not see BTC spot ETF issuers or Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) or Potentially USA BTC Strategic reserves rotating out of BTC to any altcoin. Wont happen.
BTC still a king.
if somebody prefers reading an article to the same idea: Link below
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/microstrategy-buys-4-6b-of-bitcoin-as-price-hits-new-highs/ar-AA1ui4kE
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/microstrategy-buys-4-6b-of-bitcoin-as-price-hits-new-highs/ar-AA1ui4kE
MSN
MicroStrategy buys $4.6B of Bitcoin as price hits new highs
MicroStrategy, one of the world’s largest public holders of Bitcoin, continued stacking BTC even as the cryptocurrency broke new highs. On Nov. 18, MicroStrategy announced it purchased 51,780 Bitcoin (BTC) for about $4.6 billion at an average price of $88…
Microstrategy bought around 10 billions worth of BTC in last 2-3 weeks
ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week
ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week
BTC > 100k
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"
Wow
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"
Wow
Some personal news:
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.
I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Applies to both existing and new users.
Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.
Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.
I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Applies to both existing and new users.
Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.
Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
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I am sorry to repeat myself like a broken record, but todays price action on BTC is textbook definition of Michael Saylor (or ETF issuers) buying a lot of BTC.
Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.
Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.
With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.
Hopefully everybody has a good day today.
Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.
Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.
With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.
Hopefully everybody has a good day today.