RE: ETF flows.. they arent +1 day delayed, or day of, hear Matt Hougan explain
a very useful clip about "Biggest ETF misconceptions" from Bitwise CIO
Timestamp: 23:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg9yT_iddZs
a very useful clip about "Biggest ETF misconceptions" from Bitwise CIO
Timestamp: 23:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg9yT_iddZs
YouTube
The BTC/ETH ETF Flows Are Just Getting Started | Matt Hougan
In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss BTC vs ETH ETF flows, the biggest ETF misconceptions, and the importance of regulatory clarity. We also delve into the value of incorporating BTC in a portfolio, future crypto ETF strategies, and much…
More thoughts on the topic/November 1st:
... more words on the thesis/trade I laid out above and then thoughts on Price Action since I posted my thread above (BTC -4%)
Elections and days after:
US elections are on Tuesday November 5th
but its important to dive deeper how that day actually plays out and what to expect - when:
Polls begin to close in eastern states from 6pm US Eastern Time on Tuesday. By 8pm US ET, polls will have fully closed in more than 20 states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, will close their polls at 12am US ET
When will the election results be announced?
We should have a good sense of who will probably be president by the time polls close in Hawaii and Alaska, which is several hours after vote counting in some key eastern states will have begun.
The world may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call, especially given how tightly contested some polling has indicated the vote will be.
In 2020 the Associated Press did not declare Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am US ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016 it took until 2.29am US ET the morning after election day to declare Trump the winner.
Therefore, as European, I expect to stay up all night long from Tuesday to Wednesday morning to make sure I do not miss a single market-moving headline. Is it a bit of overkill? Absolutely, but thats what I will do.
So say we know a winner of the elections by November 6th-7th.
Right after on November 7th there is FOMC (where we get potential Rate Cut - how big?)
Even if Trump wins (good for crypto industry / our coins) - BUT
The next presidential inauguration is scheduled to be on January 20, 2025, that is a LOT of time in the meantime from say November 7th to January 20th 2025 before Trump could potentially do anything as president.
Price Action yesterday:
I believe that what we saw yesterday was simply TradFi correlation, see image below
Everything from gold/silver to SP500 & Nasdaq was selling off all day and as mentioned yesterday - we simply correlate to it.
SP500 -1,8%
Nasdaq -2,4%
BTC -4%
Shaky market reaction to Earnings (Link) & upcoming Job Report due later today
I dont personally see that as Derisking pre-elections (just yet - maybe is just my cope)
... more words on the thesis/trade I laid out above and then thoughts on Price Action since I posted my thread above (BTC -4%)
Elections and days after:
US elections are on Tuesday November 5th
but its important to dive deeper how that day actually plays out and what to expect - when:
Polls begin to close in eastern states from 6pm US Eastern Time on Tuesday. By 8pm US ET, polls will have fully closed in more than 20 states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, will close their polls at 12am US ET
When will the election results be announced?
We should have a good sense of who will probably be president by the time polls close in Hawaii and Alaska, which is several hours after vote counting in some key eastern states will have begun.
The world may have to wait a bit longer to hear a final call, especially given how tightly contested some polling has indicated the vote will be.
In 2020 the Associated Press did not declare Joe Biden as the winner of the presidential election until 7 November at 11.26am US ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016 it took until 2.29am US ET the morning after election day to declare Trump the winner.
Therefore, as European, I expect to stay up all night long from Tuesday to Wednesday morning to make sure I do not miss a single market-moving headline. Is it a bit of overkill? Absolutely, but thats what I will do.
So say we know a winner of the elections by November 6th-7th.
Right after on November 7th there is FOMC (where we get potential Rate Cut - how big?)
Even if Trump wins (good for crypto industry / our coins) - BUT
The next presidential inauguration is scheduled to be on January 20, 2025, that is a LOT of time in the meantime from say November 7th to January 20th 2025 before Trump could potentially do anything as president.
Price Action yesterday:
I believe that what we saw yesterday was simply TradFi correlation, see image below
Everything from gold/silver to SP500 & Nasdaq was selling off all day and as mentioned yesterday - we simply correlate to it.
SP500 -1,8%
Nasdaq -2,4%
BTC -4%
Shaky market reaction to Earnings (Link) & upcoming Job Report due later today
I dont personally see that as Derisking pre-elections (just yet - maybe is just my cope)
Update Sunday 3/11:
Since posting my Original Thoughts few days ago, BTC and DOGE have been correcting a lot
Kamala is gaining on polls (now around 50-50%) whilst at the time of posting it was around 65-35 for Donald Trump leading. I believe that is main factor for price action of last 48 hours.
Trump "lead" dropping on sites like Polymarket
-> DJT down -> BTC down -> MSTR down -> Amount of leverage in BTC significantly down
Speaking of Open Interest (OI), I mentioned being afraid of elevated levels (that it increased a lot, very suddenly), but in last 3 days more than 10% of it has closed out, which I see as bullish.
Conclusion: with how sensitive price seems to be around each and every headline or update to Polls (Harris or Trump leading), I expect a lot of volatility to the both sides. I laid out a thesis previously for hedging our spot BTC longs with some shorts. But I am also starting to develop a scenario, where I am looking to long, as market is in my opinion, getting a more "realistic" view of Trumps winning rather than it being consensus.
I am afraid who did not short DOGE around 0.175 or so few days ago will not get a DOGE short entry anymore.
Waiting for CME open. Update on Monday. Have a good sunday. Get some rest
Since posting my Original Thoughts few days ago, BTC and DOGE have been correcting a lot
Kamala is gaining on polls (now around 50-50%) whilst at the time of posting it was around 65-35 for Donald Trump leading. I believe that is main factor for price action of last 48 hours.
Trump "lead" dropping on sites like Polymarket
-> DJT down -> BTC down -> MSTR down -> Amount of leverage in BTC significantly down
Speaking of Open Interest (OI), I mentioned being afraid of elevated levels (that it increased a lot, very suddenly), but in last 3 days more than 10% of it has closed out, which I see as bullish.
Conclusion: with how sensitive price seems to be around each and every headline or update to Polls (Harris or Trump leading), I expect a lot of volatility to the both sides. I laid out a thesis previously for hedging our spot BTC longs with some shorts. But I am also starting to develop a scenario, where I am looking to long, as market is in my opinion, getting a more "realistic" view of Trumps winning rather than it being consensus.
I am afraid who did not short DOGE around 0.175 or so few days ago will not get a DOGE short entry anymore.
Waiting for CME open. Update on Monday. Have a good sunday. Get some rest
photo_2024-11-04_17-34-19.jpg
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Update Monday 4/11:
Over the weekend we have seen Crypto Natives derisk their long-exposure (as Trump-win trade) following Ann Selzer saying that Harris is ahead in certain states.
Altcoins (OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC) got hammered once again, with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) going all the way to 60.6% (a new high - again)
How I plan to approach Tuesday/Wednesday:
Since US elections are technically starting from East Coast to West Coast, the final count/decision will technically not be known until early Wednesday (that means that it will be technically Wednesday trading session that probably matters more to me)
-> please see the Image attached
As European, I will stay up all night from Tuesday to Wednesday to see if I can catch some headlines and or guaranteed drama in the process.
Traders/Investors then have technically 2 more working days to derisk/position themselves (Today and tomorrow) for the elections - what I am looking for as proxies is BTC/USD, DJT, MSTR, US500 and US100 (+BTC ETF numbers today)
I emphasised importance of Wednesday and just day later there is FOMC, where we arguably get another rate cut.
Below is a table which should be close enough to see at what time we should know winners in Battleground/Swing states converted to CET time.
Polls had Trump drop to 50-50 tie-tie with Harris, but as of right now Trump is again leading at 60% on the Polls, BTC doesnt seem to reflect that much, however DOGE does.
Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday will be absolute chaos, If you have no edge trading lower time frames and struggle to make decisions on the fly, I would encourage you to sit on the sidelines and simply observe.
Expecting fairly calm rest of the monday. Update tomorrow
Over the weekend we have seen Crypto Natives derisk their long-exposure (as Trump-win trade) following Ann Selzer saying that Harris is ahead in certain states.
Altcoins (OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC) got hammered once again, with Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) going all the way to 60.6% (a new high - again)
How I plan to approach Tuesday/Wednesday:
Since US elections are technically starting from East Coast to West Coast, the final count/decision will technically not be known until early Wednesday (that means that it will be technically Wednesday trading session that probably matters more to me)
-> please see the Image attached
As European, I will stay up all night from Tuesday to Wednesday to see if I can catch some headlines and or guaranteed drama in the process.
Traders/Investors then have technically 2 more working days to derisk/position themselves (Today and tomorrow) for the elections - what I am looking for as proxies is BTC/USD, DJT, MSTR, US500 and US100 (+BTC ETF numbers today)
I emphasised importance of Wednesday and just day later there is FOMC, where we arguably get another rate cut.
Below is a table which should be close enough to see at what time we should know winners in Battleground/Swing states converted to CET time.
Polls had Trump drop to 50-50 tie-tie with Harris, but as of right now Trump is again leading at 60% on the Polls, BTC doesnt seem to reflect that much, however DOGE does.
Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday will be absolute chaos, If you have no edge trading lower time frames and struggle to make decisions on the fly, I would encourage you to sit on the sidelines and simply observe.
Expecting fairly calm rest of the monday. Update tomorrow
November 15th Update:
BTC/USD has been pretty much up-only since Trump victory. Up +-35%.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) on the back of “Less regulation, more clarity for DeFi” retraced a few % when ETH/BTC seen a bit of life, but that strength, as per usual, was fully retraced back down. with OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC (my two favorite proxies for “Altseason”).
Altcoins with very few exceptions have been struggling. On the other hand memecoins listed on CEX exploded and yielded best returns, greatly outperforming Bitcoin (while being very liquid).
TLDR: BTC good, memecoins good, alts bad (BTC/USD up + BTC.D up + OTHERS/BTC down = good)
A lot of the strength could be seen via Coinbase Premium, which persistently stays elevated.
Robinhood/Coinbase/Binance started aggressively listing memecoins which are leading retail interest and volumes.
Trump/FOMO trade & crypto bullishness was expressed via multiple venues:
BTC +35% - new ATH
BTC spot ETFs seeing $1bn + daily inflows and some of the best days ever
MSTR buying $2bn of BTC in a week
TradFi - new ATH
MSTR +75% - new ATH (Microstrategy - effectively leveraged BTC)
COIN +90% - new mutliyear highs
TSLA + DOGE new multimonth highs (Elon Musk leading “D.O.G.E” Department of Government Efficiency)
… please read this link
My thoughts/what do I expect:
- next 4 years under Trump - our industry will flourish (no more draconial/non-existant conversation with SEC and other regulators)
- USA will become a leading hub for crypto (mining, startups, VC/investment)
- Big Fuss around "BTC strategic reserves" bill by Sen. Lummis
- Gary Gensler to resign before Trump is Inaugurated on January 20th (3 previous SEC chairmen did resign - its somewhat of a tradition)
When do altcoins run? Not just memes, but “quality” altcoins with fundamentals
As presented in the original message of this channel, I believe BTC/USD + BTC.D leading is overall healthy and good news for everybody. That to me indicated we still have room to go in the cycle. I can see two scenarios playing out. Would selfishly prefer 2).
Scenario 1: BTC consolidates (say 85-93k range), while altcoins (Alt/BTC pairs) outperform
Scenario 2: BTC corrects (single best level 72-75k), then Altcoins outperform big time.
I do see 100k as a big psychological level for a lot of market participants, especially those who have been around for multiple cycles. BTC 100k is pivotal (+- few 😵
I understand Scenario 2) feels very far fetched and I dont give it high probability of playing out, but if it was to play out, that is Merry Christmas for everyone.
Personally given my conservative nature and approach to risk, I will be focusing all my energy and time on SOL. I think SOL, being the playground for all the onchain/meme-degeneracy for this cycle, should see new ATH in USD pair. Therefore I am looking to buy “as much SOL as possible as low as possible”. I have already started accumulating with many limits all the way down to 160.
I believe SOL is last cycles ETH, while SUI is this cycles SOL.
If I get filled on everything, Merry Christmas.
BTC/USD has been pretty much up-only since Trump victory. Up +-35%.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) on the back of “Less regulation, more clarity for DeFi” retraced a few % when ETH/BTC seen a bit of life, but that strength, as per usual, was fully retraced back down. with OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC (my two favorite proxies for “Altseason”).
Altcoins with very few exceptions have been struggling. On the other hand memecoins listed on CEX exploded and yielded best returns, greatly outperforming Bitcoin (while being very liquid).
TLDR: BTC good, memecoins good, alts bad (BTC/USD up + BTC.D up + OTHERS/BTC down = good)
A lot of the strength could be seen via Coinbase Premium, which persistently stays elevated.
Robinhood/Coinbase/Binance started aggressively listing memecoins which are leading retail interest and volumes.
Trump/FOMO trade & crypto bullishness was expressed via multiple venues:
BTC +35% - new ATH
BTC spot ETFs seeing $1bn + daily inflows and some of the best days ever
MSTR buying $2bn of BTC in a week
TradFi - new ATH
MSTR +75% - new ATH (Microstrategy - effectively leveraged BTC)
COIN +90% - new mutliyear highs
TSLA + DOGE new multimonth highs (Elon Musk leading “D.O.G.E” Department of Government Efficiency)
… please read this link
My thoughts/what do I expect:
- next 4 years under Trump - our industry will flourish (no more draconial/non-existant conversation with SEC and other regulators)
- USA will become a leading hub for crypto (mining, startups, VC/investment)
- Big Fuss around "BTC strategic reserves" bill by Sen. Lummis
- Gary Gensler to resign before Trump is Inaugurated on January 20th (3 previous SEC chairmen did resign - its somewhat of a tradition)
When do altcoins run? Not just memes, but “quality” altcoins with fundamentals
As presented in the original message of this channel, I believe BTC/USD + BTC.D leading is overall healthy and good news for everybody. That to me indicated we still have room to go in the cycle. I can see two scenarios playing out. Would selfishly prefer 2).
Scenario 1: BTC consolidates (say 85-93k range), while altcoins (Alt/BTC pairs) outperform
Scenario 2: BTC corrects (single best level 72-75k), then Altcoins outperform big time.
I do see 100k as a big psychological level for a lot of market participants, especially those who have been around for multiple cycles. BTC 100k is pivotal (+- few 😵
I understand Scenario 2) feels very far fetched and I dont give it high probability of playing out, but if it was to play out, that is Merry Christmas for everyone.
Personally given my conservative nature and approach to risk, I will be focusing all my energy and time on SOL. I think SOL, being the playground for all the onchain/meme-degeneracy for this cycle, should see new ATH in USD pair. Therefore I am looking to buy “as much SOL as possible as low as possible”. I have already started accumulating with many limits all the way down to 160.
I believe SOL is last cycles ETH, while SUI is this cycles SOL.
If I get filled on everything, Merry Christmas.
Yahoo Finance
The FOMO market is back: Morning Brief
The recent surge in stocks is absolutely explained by the Trump trade. But it's not the only thing going on: There are other reasons why the FOMO trade is back.
In my opinion single most important podcast you can watch this week
Michael Saylor explaining BTC strategy.
TLDR: As long as MSTR Premium is high, he will keep buying BTC,
Recommend bookmarking this Link link:
Michael Saylor explaining BTC strategy.
TLDR: As long as MSTR Premium is high, he will keep buying BTC,
Recommend bookmarking this Link link:
Obviously the Title of the Podcast is clickbait by Patrick Bet-David, but highly encourage everyone to listen Saylor explain why are they aping 7bn worth of BTC in last 2 weeks
And I personally think that last few days have been Microstrategy again
with ETF issuers buying yesterday another 800m worth of BTC again.
There is just no chance in hell almost any altcoin can outperform BTC with such heavy buy pressure for BTC.
I also do not see BTC spot ETF issuers or Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) or Potentially USA BTC Strategic reserves rotating out of BTC to any altcoin. Wont happen.
BTC still a king.
And I personally think that last few days have been Microstrategy again
with ETF issuers buying yesterday another 800m worth of BTC again.
There is just no chance in hell almost any altcoin can outperform BTC with such heavy buy pressure for BTC.
I also do not see BTC spot ETF issuers or Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) or Potentially USA BTC Strategic reserves rotating out of BTC to any altcoin. Wont happen.
BTC still a king.
if somebody prefers reading an article to the same idea: Link below
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/microstrategy-buys-4-6b-of-bitcoin-as-price-hits-new-highs/ar-AA1ui4kE
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/microstrategy-buys-4-6b-of-bitcoin-as-price-hits-new-highs/ar-AA1ui4kE
MSN
MicroStrategy buys $4.6B of Bitcoin as price hits new highs
MicroStrategy, one of the world’s largest public holders of Bitcoin, continued stacking BTC even as the cryptocurrency broke new highs. On Nov. 18, MicroStrategy announced it purchased 51,780 Bitcoin (BTC) for about $4.6 billion at an average price of $88…
Microstrategy bought around 10 billions worth of BTC in last 2-3 weeks
ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week
ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week
BTC > 100k
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"
Wow
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"
Wow
Some personal news:
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.
I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Applies to both existing and new users.
Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.
Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.
I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Applies to both existing and new users.
Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.
Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
image_2024-12-11_17-35-26.png
105.7 KB
I am sorry to repeat myself like a broken record, but todays price action on BTC is textbook definition of Michael Saylor (or ETF issuers) buying a lot of BTC.
Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.
Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.
With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.
Hopefully everybody has a good day today.
Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.
Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.
With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.
Hopefully everybody has a good day today.
Link to CB premium to your TradingView
https://t.co/ml6Q7soRoS
https://t.co/ml6Q7soRoS
TradingView
COINBASE-BINANCE BTC-basis — 指标由Miles73提供
CB-BN basis
Kaito AI (https://x.com/_kaitoai)
Launched "Yaps" reflink-based "Leaderboard"
Likely leads to aidrop down the line
https://yaps.kaito.ai/referral/5705402
for those not interested in trying out their platform / possibly get airdrop down the line, they also have one of best Market Overview (Free) Telegram chats called "Overheard on CT"
https://t.co/2OjBEVEMIT
Launched "Yaps" reflink-based "Leaderboard"
Likely leads to aidrop down the line
https://yaps.kaito.ai/referral/5705402
for those not interested in trying out their platform / possibly get airdrop down the line, they also have one of best Market Overview (Free) Telegram chats called "Overheard on CT"
https://t.co/2OjBEVEMIT
Bitcoin Miner Riot Platforms Completes $525,000,000 Offering of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030 for Acquisition of Additional Bitcoin and General Corporate Purposes
((Headlines from 10+ hrs ago, but more and more companies trying to copy Saylors "Bitcoin Strategy" playbook))
more thoughts on the sustainability of that in few days. Happy green day.
((Headlines from 10+ hrs ago, but more and more companies trying to copy Saylors "Bitcoin Strategy" playbook))
more thoughts on the sustainability of that in few days. Happy green day.
My bull-thesis does not have an invalidation, but it has a time expiration.
That being Michael Saylor runs out of money to Ape.
That being Michael Saylor runs out of money to Ape.