November 15th Update:

BTC/USD has been pretty much up-only since Trump victory. Up +-35%.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) on the back of “Less regulation, more clarity for DeFi” retraced a few % when ETH/BTC seen a bit of life, but that strength, as per usual, was fully retraced back down. with OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC (my two favorite proxies for “Altseason”).
Altcoins with very few exceptions have been struggling. On the other hand memecoins listed on CEX exploded and yielded best returns, greatly outperforming Bitcoin (while being very liquid).

TLDR: BTC good, memecoins good, alts bad (BTC/USD up + BTC.D up + OTHERS/BTC down = good)

A lot of the strength could be seen via Coinbase Premium, which persistently stays elevated.
Robinhood/Coinbase/Binance started aggressively listing memecoins which are leading retail interest and volumes.

Trump/FOMO trade & crypto bullishness was expressed via multiple venues:
BTC +35% - new ATH
BTC spot ETFs seeing $1bn + daily inflows and some of the best days ever
MSTR buying $2bn of BTC in a week
TradFi - new ATH
MSTR +75% - new ATH (Microstrategy - effectively leveraged BTC)
COIN +90% - new mutliyear highs
TSLA + DOGE new multimonth highs (Elon Musk leading “D.O.G.E” Department of Government Efficiency)

… please read this link

My thoughts/what do I expect:
- next 4 years under Trump - our industry will flourish (no more draconial/non-existant conversation with SEC and other regulators)
- USA will become a leading hub for crypto (mining, startups, VC/investment)
- Big Fuss around "BTC strategic reserves" bill by Sen. Lummis
- Gary Gensler to resign before Trump is Inaugurated on January 20th (3 previous SEC chairmen did resign - its somewhat of a tradition)

When do altcoins run? Not just memes, but “quality” altcoins with fundamentals

As presented in the original message of this channel, I believe BTC/USD + BTC.D leading is overall healthy and good news for everybody. That to me indicated we still have room to go in the cycle. I can see two scenarios playing out. Would selfishly prefer 2).

Scenario 1: BTC consolidates (say 85-93k range), while altcoins (Alt/BTC pairs) outperform
Scenario 2: BTC corrects (single best level 72-75k), then Altcoins outperform big time.

I do see 100k as a big psychological level for a lot of market participants, especially those who have been around for multiple cycles. BTC 100k is pivotal (+- few 😵
I understand Scenario 2) feels very far fetched and I dont give it high probability of playing out, but if it was to play out, that is Merry Christmas for everyone.

Personally given my conservative nature and approach to risk, I will be focusing all my energy and time on SOL. I think SOL, being the playground for all the onchain/meme-degeneracy for this cycle, should see new ATH in USD pair. Therefore I am looking to buy “as much SOL as possible as low as possible”. I have already started accumulating with many limits all the way down to 160.

I believe SOL is last cycles ETH, while SUI is this cycles SOL.

If I get filled on everything, Merry Christmas.

In my opinion single most important podcast you can watch this week

Michael Saylor explaining BTC strategy.

TLDR: As long as MSTR Premium is high, he will keep buying BTC,

Recommend bookmarking this Link link:

Obviously the Title of the Podcast is clickbait by Patrick Bet-David, but highly encourage everyone to listen Saylor explain why are they aping 7bn worth of BTC in last 2 weeks

And I personally think that last few days have been Microstrategy again

with ETF issuers buying yesterday another 800m worth of BTC again.

There is just no chance in hell almost any altcoin can outperform BTC with such heavy buy pressure for BTC.

I also do not see BTC spot ETF issuers or Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy) or Potentially USA BTC Strategic reserves rotating out of BTC to any altcoin. Wont happen.

BTC still a king.

if somebody prefers reading an article to the same idea: Link below

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/microstrategy-buys-4-6b-of-bitcoin-as-price-hits-new-highs/ar-AA1ui4kE

MSTR +15% yesterday and 10% pre-market today

BTC new ATH , altcoins I am scared to look

Microstrategy bought around 10 billions worth of BTC in last 2-3 weeks

ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week

BTC > 100k
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"

Wow

Some personal news:
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.

I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF

Applies to both existing and new users.

Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.

Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.

https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF

I am sorry to repeat myself like a broken record, but todays price action on BTC is textbook definition of Michael Saylor (or ETF issuers) buying a lot of BTC.

Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.

Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.

With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.

Hopefully everybody has a good day today.

Link to CB premium to your TradingView
https://t.co/ml6Q7soRoS

Kaito AI (https://x.com/_kaitoai)
Launched "Yaps" reflink-based "Leaderboard"
Likely leads to aidrop down the line

https://yaps.kaito.ai/referral/5705402

for those not interested in trying out their platform / possibly get airdrop down the line, they also have one of best Market Overview (Free) Telegram chats called "Overheard on CT"

https://t.co/2OjBEVEMIT

Bitcoin Miner Riot Platforms Completes $525,000,000 Offering of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030 for Acquisition of Additional Bitcoin and General Corporate Purposes

((Headlines from 10+ hrs ago, but more and more companies trying to copy Saylors "Bitcoin Strategy" playbook))

more thoughts on the sustainability of that in few days. Happy green day.

My bull-thesis does not have an invalidation, but it has a time expiration.

That being Michael Saylor runs out of money to Ape.

Most of my trading revolves around Orderflow, for those unfamiliar with the concepts, over the years I have made some YouTube videos/tutorials on said topics.

For those who prefer text over video, each video in the denoscription includes more sources and links to be studied.

Main platforms I used in the past were Coinalyze and VeloData, I have made videos about both, I suggest you watch both (no reflinks included)

YouTube channel link:
https://www.youtube.com/@RunnerXBT/videos

Utilizing Orderflow for Altcoin Trading:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymB6O9YfZHQ

VeloData Tutorial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsqB-FI2gEs

Funding Rates Tutorial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgLXqcsw7a4&t=4s

No reflinks, free, enjoy.
My DMs are always open if anybody has questions.

On weekly basis I also stream solo and I do also stream with Adam (abetrade/tradingriot)

Next 7 days / Market outlook:
TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that.

Day-to-day break-down:
December 15th (Sunday):
- Saylor tweet his usual Sunday “Needs more Dots on the Chart” tweet? (Yes/No)
- Monitor CME open + Weekly close (BTC + MSTR)

Michael Saylor for 5th or 6th week in a row posted the same tweet (dots on chart) which consequently leads to MSTR BTC purchase announcement 90 minutes before US open tomorrow (Monday 2PM CET)

First thing I will look out for is how MSTR price (Microstrategy - stock) will behave upon CME open as a result of MSTR inclusion in QQQ. To simplify my thought process I look at MSTR a bit like this

MSTR price go up → MSTR premium goes up → Saylor more likely to buy more BTC (via raising more capital at 0% interest or selling more stock) → Saylor creates buy pressure on BTC that makes price go up → MSTR price go up (as its levered BTC)
— in best interest of Saylor to buy as much as possible as quickly as possible, as I believe he has around 9b left (which at 2b/week pace lines up just fine for Inaguration/before their Blackout period)

There are 16 days left in 2024 and realistically around 10-11 working days left in the year (accounted for Christmas break, New Years Eve, weekends etc.). Emphasis on Working Days is because I believe Saylor is only buying on Working days. I expect week of 23rd-29th December to be a lot slower for that reason.

December 16th (Monday):
All eyes on MSTR price action and BTC price action during US trading session
Macro: US Flash Services PMI/Manufacturing PMI (nothingburger)

December 18th (Wednesday):
Macro: FOMC (USA Rate Cut)

December 19th (Thursday):
Macro: BOJ meeting + Core Retail Sales

December 20th (Friday):
Macro: USA Core PCE

Macro events move Traditional markets, which do still affect (in my opinion) BTC, therefore broader crypto market. TradFi is comfy making new All-time-highs alongside BTC. Few previous weeks were very calm, without many headlines.

Realistically, MSTR inclusion to QQQ happens on December 23rd, last Fridays headlines were just “news/confirmation”. It is yet to be seen how the inclusion affects MSTR price action. After New Years, I expect all the narrative to shift back to USA BTC strategic reserve, as MSTR should slow down or completely stop their purchasing frenzy due to Blackout period.

As for other parts of the crypto market
- Memecoins have been struggling past few weeks
- Crypto natives seem to have fully shifted their attention to new ecosystems (Hyperliquid) while SOL bleeds
- Altcoins that World Liberty Finance (WLF - Donald Trumps project) keeps buying are performing well (LINK, ENA, COW etc.)

Our positioning:
- 100% spot BTC long
- Currently around 2% of BTC was hedged via BTC/USD short on Perps
- Looking to add to hedges higher on BTC/USD

Will update if something major happens, good luck have fun this week 🤝

https://x.com/saylor/status/1868277366226841996

Michael Saylor just posted the usual "Missing a green dot?"

The tweet I was referencing 2 hours ago 🤝

tomorrow 2 PM CET we will see how much they Purchased

CME open, opens with 104k tap
should be a really really wild week

good night

MSTR +6% pre-market so far

in 4 hours MSTR announces BTC purchase 🙏