Microstrategy bought around 10 billions worth of BTC in last 2-3 weeks
ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week
ETFs bought +3.4 Bn last week
BTC > 100k
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"
Wow
MSTR and Bitcoin spot ETFs continue scooping up billions of BTC, FED chairman Jerome Powell called Bitcoin "Digital Gold"
Wow
Some personal news:
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.
I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Applies to both existing and new users.
Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.
Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Starting today I am starting at CoinbaseTraders
preferred trader, I am moving bunch of our funds trading operations to Coinbase Advanced.
I will be compensated through my referral link.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
Applies to both existing and new users.
Congrats Runner, Why should I care?
- Zero (0%) trading fees on perps (thats right, zero)
- For non-europeans 4.35% USDC yield on your USDC holdings, even if you have opened a limit-order with that USDC.
- You get $40 for making a first perp trade and $40 once you trade above $10k volume
- You can literally use me as your personal “go-to” guy if you need anything resolved with Coinbase, be that KYC or anything of that matter. Everybody signed up with my link will be treated as VIP.
Why do I care?
- I can use BTC as collateral for my trading which is something I have been preaching for years now.
- 0% trading fees on perps does add up in a long run.
- I am big fan of Coinbase moves especially in 2024 (ETFs, important role in pro-crypto governmental approach, BASE ecosystem, reputation & regulated)
- I have spent a bunch of time IRL with the team.
- Has InsillicoTerminal integration so execution I am used to
- I have opportunity to talk to Product team and implement my feedback.
https://advanced.coinbase.com/join/G63R2YF
image_2024-12-11_17-35-26.png
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I am sorry to repeat myself like a broken record, but todays price action on BTC is textbook definition of Michael Saylor (or ETF issuers) buying a lot of BTC.
Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.
Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.
With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.
Hopefully everybody has a good day today.
Characteristic in increased CB (Coinbase) premium.
Michael Saylor has been announcing purchases every monday and he has around 9.1b left from his original stack.
With respect to your time, I dont think they stop buying all the way until Trump Inaguration. I expect them to be buying for at least 4 more weeks or so.
Hopefully everybody has a good day today.
Link to CB premium to your TradingView
https://t.co/ml6Q7soRoS
https://t.co/ml6Q7soRoS
TradingView
COINBASE-BINANCE BTC-basis — 指标由Miles73提供
CB-BN basis
Kaito AI (https://x.com/_kaitoai)
Launched "Yaps" reflink-based "Leaderboard"
Likely leads to aidrop down the line
https://yaps.kaito.ai/referral/5705402
for those not interested in trying out their platform / possibly get airdrop down the line, they also have one of best Market Overview (Free) Telegram chats called "Overheard on CT"
https://t.co/2OjBEVEMIT
Launched "Yaps" reflink-based "Leaderboard"
Likely leads to aidrop down the line
https://yaps.kaito.ai/referral/5705402
for those not interested in trying out their platform / possibly get airdrop down the line, they also have one of best Market Overview (Free) Telegram chats called "Overheard on CT"
https://t.co/2OjBEVEMIT
Bitcoin Miner Riot Platforms Completes $525,000,000 Offering of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030 for Acquisition of Additional Bitcoin and General Corporate Purposes
((Headlines from 10+ hrs ago, but more and more companies trying to copy Saylors "Bitcoin Strategy" playbook))
more thoughts on the sustainability of that in few days. Happy green day.
((Headlines from 10+ hrs ago, but more and more companies trying to copy Saylors "Bitcoin Strategy" playbook))
more thoughts on the sustainability of that in few days. Happy green day.
My bull-thesis does not have an invalidation, but it has a time expiration.
That being Michael Saylor runs out of money to Ape.
That being Michael Saylor runs out of money to Ape.
Most of my trading revolves around Orderflow, for those unfamiliar with the concepts, over the years I have made some YouTube videos/tutorials on said topics.
For those who prefer text over video, each video in the denoscription includes more sources and links to be studied.
Main platforms I used in the past were Coinalyze and VeloData, I have made videos about both, I suggest you watch both (no reflinks included)
YouTube channel link:
https://www.youtube.com/@RunnerXBT/videos
Utilizing Orderflow for Altcoin Trading:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymB6O9YfZHQ
VeloData Tutorial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsqB-FI2gEs
Funding Rates Tutorial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgLXqcsw7a4&t=4s
No reflinks, free, enjoy.
My DMs are always open if anybody has questions.
On weekly basis I also stream solo and I do also stream with Adam (abetrade/tradingriot)
For those who prefer text over video, each video in the denoscription includes more sources and links to be studied.
Main platforms I used in the past were Coinalyze and VeloData, I have made videos about both, I suggest you watch both (no reflinks included)
YouTube channel link:
https://www.youtube.com/@RunnerXBT/videos
Utilizing Orderflow for Altcoin Trading:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymB6O9YfZHQ
VeloData Tutorial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsqB-FI2gEs
Funding Rates Tutorial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgLXqcsw7a4&t=4s
No reflinks, free, enjoy.
My DMs are always open if anybody has questions.
On weekly basis I also stream solo and I do also stream with Adam (abetrade/tradingriot)
Next 7 days / Market outlook:
TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that.
Day-to-day break-down:
December 15th (Sunday):
- Saylor tweet his usual Sunday “Needs more Dots on the Chart” tweet? (Yes/No)
- Monitor CME open + Weekly close (BTC + MSTR)
Michael Saylor for 5th or 6th week in a row posted the same tweet (dots on chart) which consequently leads to MSTR BTC purchase announcement 90 minutes before US open tomorrow (Monday 2PM CET)
First thing I will look out for is how MSTR price (Microstrategy - stock) will behave upon CME open as a result of MSTR inclusion in QQQ. To simplify my thought process I look at MSTR a bit like this
MSTR price go up → MSTR premium goes up → Saylor more likely to buy more BTC (via raising more capital at 0% interest or selling more stock) → Saylor creates buy pressure on BTC that makes price go up → MSTR price go up (as its levered BTC)
— in best interest of Saylor to buy as much as possible as quickly as possible, as I believe he has around 9b left (which at 2b/week pace lines up just fine for Inaguration/before their Blackout period)
There are 16 days left in 2024 and realistically around 10-11 working days left in the year (accounted for Christmas break, New Years Eve, weekends etc.). Emphasis on Working Days is because I believe Saylor is only buying on Working days. I expect week of 23rd-29th December to be a lot slower for that reason.
December 16th (Monday):
All eyes on MSTR price action and BTC price action during US trading session
Macro: US Flash Services PMI/Manufacturing PMI (nothingburger)
December 18th (Wednesday):
Macro: FOMC (USA Rate Cut)
December 19th (Thursday):
Macro: BOJ meeting + Core Retail Sales
December 20th (Friday):
Macro: USA Core PCE
Macro events move Traditional markets, which do still affect (in my opinion) BTC, therefore broader crypto market. TradFi is comfy making new All-time-highs alongside BTC. Few previous weeks were very calm, without many headlines.
Realistically, MSTR inclusion to QQQ happens on December 23rd, last Fridays headlines were just “news/confirmation”. It is yet to be seen how the inclusion affects MSTR price action. After New Years, I expect all the narrative to shift back to USA BTC strategic reserve, as MSTR should slow down or completely stop their purchasing frenzy due to Blackout period.
As for other parts of the crypto market
- Memecoins have been struggling past few weeks
- Crypto natives seem to have fully shifted their attention to new ecosystems (Hyperliquid) while SOL bleeds
- Altcoins that World Liberty Finance (WLF - Donald Trumps project) keeps buying are performing well (LINK, ENA, COW etc.)
Our positioning:
- 100% spot BTC long
- Currently around 2% of BTC was hedged via BTC/USD short on Perps
- Looking to add to hedges higher on BTC/USD
Will update if something major happens, good luck have fun this week 🤝
TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that.
Day-to-day break-down:
December 15th (Sunday):
- Saylor tweet his usual Sunday “Needs more Dots on the Chart” tweet? (Yes/No)
- Monitor CME open + Weekly close (BTC + MSTR)
Michael Saylor for 5th or 6th week in a row posted the same tweet (dots on chart) which consequently leads to MSTR BTC purchase announcement 90 minutes before US open tomorrow (Monday 2PM CET)
First thing I will look out for is how MSTR price (Microstrategy - stock) will behave upon CME open as a result of MSTR inclusion in QQQ. To simplify my thought process I look at MSTR a bit like this
MSTR price go up → MSTR premium goes up → Saylor more likely to buy more BTC (via raising more capital at 0% interest or selling more stock) → Saylor creates buy pressure on BTC that makes price go up → MSTR price go up (as its levered BTC)
— in best interest of Saylor to buy as much as possible as quickly as possible, as I believe he has around 9b left (which at 2b/week pace lines up just fine for Inaguration/before their Blackout period)
There are 16 days left in 2024 and realistically around 10-11 working days left in the year (accounted for Christmas break, New Years Eve, weekends etc.). Emphasis on Working Days is because I believe Saylor is only buying on Working days. I expect week of 23rd-29th December to be a lot slower for that reason.
December 16th (Monday):
All eyes on MSTR price action and BTC price action during US trading session
Macro: US Flash Services PMI/Manufacturing PMI (nothingburger)
December 18th (Wednesday):
Macro: FOMC (USA Rate Cut)
December 19th (Thursday):
Macro: BOJ meeting + Core Retail Sales
December 20th (Friday):
Macro: USA Core PCE
Macro events move Traditional markets, which do still affect (in my opinion) BTC, therefore broader crypto market. TradFi is comfy making new All-time-highs alongside BTC. Few previous weeks were very calm, without many headlines.
Realistically, MSTR inclusion to QQQ happens on December 23rd, last Fridays headlines were just “news/confirmation”. It is yet to be seen how the inclusion affects MSTR price action. After New Years, I expect all the narrative to shift back to USA BTC strategic reserve, as MSTR should slow down or completely stop their purchasing frenzy due to Blackout period.
As for other parts of the crypto market
- Memecoins have been struggling past few weeks
- Crypto natives seem to have fully shifted their attention to new ecosystems (Hyperliquid) while SOL bleeds
- Altcoins that World Liberty Finance (WLF - Donald Trumps project) keeps buying are performing well (LINK, ENA, COW etc.)
Our positioning:
- 100% spot BTC long
- Currently around 2% of BTC was hedged via BTC/USD short on Perps
- Looking to add to hedges higher on BTC/USD
Will update if something major happens, good luck have fun this week 🤝
https://x.com/saylor/status/1868277366226841996
Michael Saylor just posted the usual "Missing a green dot?"
The tweet I was referencing 2 hours ago 🤝
Michael Saylor just posted the usual "Missing a green dot?"
The tweet I was referencing 2 hours ago 🤝
RunnerXBT
Next 7 days / Market outlook: TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that. Day-to-day break-down: December…
CME open, opens with 104k tap
should be a really really wild week
good night
should be a really really wild week
good night
RunnerXBT
Next 7 days / Market outlook: TLDR: Expecting a LOT of volatility/headlines/macro related day-trades. Still considering Donald Trump Inauguration (Jan 20th 2025 as pivotal date) as I believe MSTR runs out of money before that. Day-to-day break-down: December…
MSTR +6% pre-market so far
in 4 hours MSTR announces BTC purchase 🙏
in 4 hours MSTR announces BTC purchase 🙏
MSTR purchased $1.5 b in BTC last week (15 350 BTC)
here we go (exactly 4 hrs from last msg to the dot)
here we go (exactly 4 hrs from last msg to the dot)
FOMC yesterday delivered big.
Jerome Powell speech spooked the market and resulted in 4% correction in SP500. VIX (Volatility index) went up almost 100% in the same timeframe.
Crypto isnt immune and dumped with it, while BTC poked below 100k for a brief moment, I closed our short position on BTC.
I do believe this was a (local) bottom for at least few days (i know not very generous of me)
My reasoning is simple
- VIX going parabolic always results in a nuke in markets which is almost always a great buy. Last time it happened was big liquidation cascade on August 5th (Surprise Bank of Japan Hike/Cut)
- TradFi is already recovering pre-market
I highly encourage you to do this homework, look at all peaks on VIX (daily/weekly chart) and overlay it with BTC price action
Our positioning
- 100% BTC spot long (looking to start hedging again as I believe week of December 23rd should be slow due to holidays/EoY
- Long SOL (around 20% of desired position size so far)
almost 800 mil usd liquidations in last 24hrs, hopefully nobody here got hit
Jerome Powell speech spooked the market and resulted in 4% correction in SP500. VIX (Volatility index) went up almost 100% in the same timeframe.
Crypto isnt immune and dumped with it, while BTC poked below 100k for a brief moment, I closed our short position on BTC.
I do believe this was a (local) bottom for at least few days (i know not very generous of me)
My reasoning is simple
- VIX going parabolic always results in a nuke in markets which is almost always a great buy. Last time it happened was big liquidation cascade on August 5th (Surprise Bank of Japan Hike/Cut)
- TradFi is already recovering pre-market
I highly encourage you to do this homework, look at all peaks on VIX (daily/weekly chart) and overlay it with BTC price action
Our positioning
- 100% BTC spot long (looking to start hedging again as I believe week of December 23rd should be slow due to holidays/EoY
- Long SOL (around 20% of desired position size so far)
almost 800 mil usd liquidations in last 24hrs, hopefully nobody here got hit